Equinor at a glance (Oct 14, 2025)

Business mix: global oil & gas producer; Europe’s largest gas supplier; growing (but selective) renewables; carbon management & hydrogen options. Equinor guides to ~2.2m boe/d by 2030 with NCS production ~1.2m boe/d to 2035. Equinor
Europe gas anchor: Norway is the EU’s top gas supplier (~31–33% of EU imports). Equinor + the state’s SDFI volumes represent ~30% of Europe’s gas market. Energy+2Consilium+2
Latest results / capital returns: Q2-25 adjusted operating income $6.53B; company reiterated $5B 2025 buyback framework (multiple tranches) and keeps the $0.37/ADR quarterly dividend cadence. 2025 total capital return guidance ~$9B (dividends + buybacks). Reuters+4Equinor+4Equinor+4
Valuation snapshot (TTM): Market cap on U.S. ADR basis ~$58–60B; P/E ~7.6x; P/S ~0.6x; P/CF ~3.4x; EPS ~$3.02; shares o/s ~2.62–2.63B. Forward dividend yield prints in the ~6–9% range depending on source/FX and inclusion of variable elements. Finance Charts+5Yahoo Finance+5

Segment & asset update

Natural Gas (core cash engine)

Equinor is Europe’s largest gas supplier, with strong NCS fields (Troll, Ormen Lange partner, etc.) and pipeline/LNG optionality. Tightness persists into 2025 given European storage dynamics and LNG competition. Reuters+2Reuters+2

Read-through: Gas remains the strategic pillar—underpinning cash returns and low corporate beta.

Oil (North Sea & international)

Johan Sverdrup at/near plateau through early 2025 before natural decline; still a massive, low-cost barrel contributor. S&P Global+1
Bay du Nord (Canada): project advancing—BW Offshore named preferred FPSO bidder via HoA (Sept 1, 2025). Canada’s federal EA approval already in hand (Apr 2022). BW Offshore+1
2025 organic capex ~$13B; 2025 oil & gas output +4% y/y guided. Reuters

Read-through: Oil remains disciplined, long-cycle optionality (Sverdrup tail, Bay du Nord FID path) with capital efficiency.

Offshore Wind (selective; lessons learned)

Dogger Bank A/B ramping; portfolio generation rose with Dogger Bank A contribution in Q2-25; further UK phase Dogger Bank D in progress (lease step). Equinor+2Dogger Bank Wind Farm+2
U.S. East Coast headwinds: Empire/Beacon have seen setbacks; most recently, a key wind installation vessel contract tied to Empire Wind was terminated by Maersk, reflecting broader U.S. offshore wind stress. Reuters
Strategy pivot: company is being more selective in renewables (capacity ambition narrowed earlier; focus on risk/returns). Reuters

Read-through: UK wind cornerstone is working; U.S. wind remains challenged—Equinor is prioritizing return discipline.

Lithium (DLE) — Smackover Lithium JV

JV formed May 2024 with Standard Lithium across Southwest Arkansas & East Texas; ownership 55% SLI / 45% Equinor; SLI is operator.
Today (Oct 14, 2025): JV filed a Definitive Feasibility Study for the South West Arkansas (SWA) project—positioned as North America’s highest-grade reported lithium brine reserve per JV release. standardlithium.com+2GlobeNewswire+2

Read-through: Early-stage optionality outside hydrocarbons; Equinor gets exposure to U.S. battery minerals with a credible DLE partner while not distracting from core cash cows.

Decarbonisation & portfolio housekeeping

Electrification of select NCS platforms: Equinor halted several projects on cost escalation (Snorre/Heidrun/Åsgard/Kristin), continuing only Grane & Balder—implies slower Scope-1 reduction pace to 2030. Reuters

Financials & returns (TTM context)

Revenue ~US$106.5B; Operating margin ~28%; EPS ~$3.02. These align with your snapshot. Acquirers Multiple
Dividends & buybacks: Quarterly $0.37/ADR plus $5B 2025 buyback program (in tranches; state maintains 67% through proportional cancellation). Forward yield shows mid-single to high-single digits depending on FX and whether investors annualize variable elements. Equinor+3Reuters+3Equinor+3

Valuation & quality markers

Cheap vs. history & peers: P/E ~7–8x; P/CF ~3–4x; P/S ~0.6x—a “value-with-dividends” setup backed by long-life NCS assets. (Low measured beta ~0–0.5 depending on dataset/venue.) Yahoo Finance+1
Balance-sheet/cash discipline: supports continued repurchases and steady base dividend through cycles. Q2-25 still delivered multi-billion adjusted earnings in a normalizing price tape. Equinor

Catalysts (6–24 months)

European gas pricing / winters 2025–27 (storage refills, LNG pull, Norwegian volumes). Reuters
Dogger Bank A/B/C ramp & UK grid integration; clarity on Dogger Bank D. Dogger Bank Wind Farm+1
Bay du Nord commercial steps (final agreements/FID, FPSO contract finalization). BW Offshore
Smackover Lithium DFS outcomes and permitting/financing milestones under the JV. GlobeNewswire
Capital returns—pace of buybacks and base dividend decisions around quarterly prints. Equinor

Risks to monitor

U.S. offshore wind execution & policy volatility (Empire/Beacon timeline, supply-chain). Reuters
NCS emissions plan changes after electrification cancellations (reputational & regulatory interface). Reuters
Commodity risks (gas, oil differentials; LNG competition from U.S./Qatar). Reuters

Bottom line (why EQNR still works as a “foundation” holding)

The gas franchise to Europe + low-cost NCS oil fund high, visible cash returns at a single-digit P/E. Renewables exposure is increasingly pruned to focus on risk-adjusted returns, while Smackover lithium adds asymmetric optionality. On the numbers you posted—MCap ~$60B; P/E ~7.4x; P/S 0.6; P/CF ~3.4x; EPS ~$3.02; Op margin ~28%—the setup remains attractive for income + buybacks with defensiveness from gas. Acquirers Multiple+1
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Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Energy Leaders, Why we've been adding to our position in Equinor ASA