Saturday, October 3, 2026

Kraken Robotics 60,000 Sq Ft Battery Plant is now operational

October 2026 — Update to our August 7, 2025 article

When we wrote our original article, “Kraken Robotics – NATO Navy supplier is moving up the ladder with massive, undersea battery facility!”, one of the most important pieces of our investment thesis was Kraken Robotics' planned 60,000-square-foot SeaPower™ battery manufacturing facility in Nova Scotia.

At the time, it was still a plan.

Today, it is becoming an operating asset — and Kraken Robotics itself has evolved into a considerably larger company.Kraken Robotics Update: The Battery Expansion We Were Waiting For

From Promise to Production

In August 2025, Kraken had committed approximately C$10 million to establish the Nova Scotia facility. Management expected it to substantially increase SeaPower battery manufacturing capacity and ultimately help bring total potential battery production toward C$200 million annually.

That expansion is no longer theoretical.

Kraken subsequently confirmed completion of the new Nova Scotia manufacturing facility, and in March 2026 CEO Greg Reid said battery manufacturing there was coming online.

The company's April investor presentation subsequently identified Halifax, Nova Scotia and Rostock, Germany as its battery manufacturing locations.

This gives Kraken something increasingly important in the rapidly expanding autonomous-underwater market:

Significant SeaPower battery manufacturing capability on both sides of the Atlantic.

And The Customers Are Arriving

Capacity means little without demand.

This is where the story becomes particularly interesting.

In January 2026, Kraken announced C$35 million in SeaPower battery sales to three customers.

In March, Kraken announced another approximately C$24 million of defence orders across SeaPower batteries, KATFISH and Kraken SAS.

In April, another C$28 million in SeaPower battery and SAS orders followed, involving five customers. Kraken said its technology was then integrated, or being integrated, into more than 30 different UUV platform types worldwide.

The company has therefore moved well beyond proving that SeaPower works.

It is increasingly about scaling production.

The XL-UUV Development May Be Even More Important

One development since our original article deserves particular attention.

Kraken has signed a long-term Master Supply Agreement with a major international conglomerate developing extra-large unmanned underwater vehicles — XL-UUVs.

The customer has not been publicly identified.

That means we should not speculate that it is any particular defence contractor.

But the size of these underwater vehicles helps explain why this opportunity matters.

Kraken's April 2026 investor material indicated that an XL-UUV can contain approximately 50–60 of its 20-kWh SeaPower battery modules.

That changes the economics considerably.

A future in which large autonomous submarines are produced in meaningful numbers could require substantially more battery capacity than today's smaller UUV market.

And Kraken has been building the manufacturing infrastructure to participate in exactly that market.

A Better Battery Opens Another Market

Kraken has also introduced a more compact SeaPower architecture offering approximately a 30% improvement in energy density.

That is strategically important because SeaPower is no longer aimed principally at very large underwater vehicles.

The new architecture allows Kraken to address small and medium-sized UUVs as well.

Kraken therefore potentially participates across much of the autonomous underwater spectrum:

Small UUV → Medium UUV → Large UUV → XL-UUV

For an investor, this may ultimately be more important than any single battery contract.

Kraken is attempting to become an enabling technology supplier to the broader underwater-autonomy industry.

Kraken Is No Longer The Company We Wrote About In August 2025

There has been another major change.

Kraken completed its acquisition of Covelya Group in July 2026.

That brought businesses including Sonardyne, EIVA, Voyis, Wavefront Systems and others into the organization.

Kraken's technology portfolio now spans much more of the underwater stack:

Capability	Kraken/Covelya exposure
Subsea power	SeaPower batteries
Synthetic Aperture Sonar	Kraken SAS
Mine hunting	KATFISH
Underwater navigation	Sonardyne
Acoustic positioning & communications	Sonardyne
Mission/survey software	EIVA
Optical subsea imaging	Voyis
Intruder detection & forward-looking sonar	Wavefront
Subsea services/LiDAR	3D at Depth

This is a very different company from the relatively specialized Canadian ocean-technology business we originally followed.

The Numbers Are Scaling Too

Kraken reported C$102.2 million of revenue and C$25.0 million of Adjusted EBITDA for 2025.

Following the Covelya acquisition, management's 2026 guidance increased dramatically.

Kraken currently expects:

Revenue: C$290–C$320 million

Adjusted EBITDA: C$65–C$75 million

Adjusted EBITDA margin: approximately 22%–23%

Perhaps even more significant, by the end of Q2 Kraken and Covelya had announced approximately C$355 million of combined 2026 orders.

This does not mean C$355 million automatically becomes 2026 revenue. Order timing and revenue recognition matter.

But it demonstrates the scale of the opportunity now confronting the company.

Why The Nova Scotia Plant Matters More Today Than It Did In 2025

When we first wrote about the plant, we viewed it primarily as a capacity expansion.

Today we see it somewhat differently.

It is potentially a strategic piece of North American allied-defence manufacturing infrastructure.

Kraken can manufacture subsea batteries in Canada while maintaining its European battery operation in Germany.

That provides geographic diversification and puts production closer to North American customers at precisely the time when autonomous maritime systems are becoming increasingly important to Western defence planning.

And the plant includes multiple pressure-testing tanks rated to 6,000 metres.

This is specialized infrastructure, not a conventional battery assembly operation.

Our Investment Thesis Has Evolved

Our original thesis was relatively simple:

Kraken possessed excellent subsea sonar and battery technology and was positioned to benefit from growing NATO and commercial demand for autonomous underwater systems.

We believe the thesis has broadened considerably.

Kraken is increasingly becoming a subsea technology platform supplying many of the technologies required to make autonomous underwater systems work:

POWER → NAVIGATION → COMMUNICATION → SONAR → IMAGING → SOFTWARE → DATA

The Nova Scotia SeaPower facility fills an especially important part of that stack: power and endurance.

Without sufficient energy storage, an autonomous underwater vehicle cannot stay underwater longer, travel farther or carry increasingly sophisticated sensor payloads.

That makes battery technology a potentially valuable technological chokepoint.

What We Are Watching Now

The next question is no longer:

“Will Kraken build the Nova Scotia battery plant?”

It has.

The questions for shareholders now become:

How quickly will production ramp?

How much of the potential C$200 million annual battery capacity can Kraken utilize?

Will the XL-UUV supply agreement turn into large recurring production orders?

How quickly will new small- and medium-UUV customers adopt the higher-density SeaPower architecture?

And finally:

Can Kraken successfully integrate Covelya while maintaining the growth and margins investors now expect?

Those are the metrics that should increasingly determine the investment case through 2027 and 2028.

Investment Perspective — October 2026

Our August 2025 article described a promising Canadian defence-technology company investing aggressively ahead of anticipated demand.

Fourteen months later, several pieces of that thesis have materially advanced.

The Nova Scotia battery plant has been completed.

SeaPower orders have increased.

Kraken has gained additional defence customers.

Its technology is being integrated across more than 30 UUV platform types.

A long-term battery agreement has been signed with a manufacturer developing XL-UUVs.

And the Covelya acquisition has transformed Kraken into a substantially larger international subsea-technology company.

There are still important risks: Covelya integration, execution, working-capital requirements, contract timing, defence procurement delays and the challenge of filling newly installed manufacturing capacity.

But there is an important distinction between the Kraken story of August 2025 and the Kraken story today:

In 2025, investors were largely buying the expectation of scale.

In late 2026, we are beginning to see that scale being built and commercialized.

Ed Note

We originally added to our PNG position on August 7, 2025 because we believed Kraken was sitting at the intersection of several long-duration trends: NATO naval modernization, autonomous underwater vehicles, mine warfare, subsea infrastructure protection and offshore energy.

The opening of the Nova Scotia SeaPower manufacturing operation strengthens that thesis.

In our view, the next major milestone is not another factory announcement.

It is utilization.

If Kraken can progressively fill this new battery capacity with recurring UUV and particularly XL-UUV production orders, the Nova Scotia facility could become one of the more important growth assets inside the expanded Kraken organization.

That is what we will be watching closely through 2027.

Further: the connections between the new German made subs being stationed in Halifax NS with Canada's East Coast Navy, the German battery manufacturing plant, The idea that these subs will eventually be "command platforms" for XLUUV clusters, and the fact that the Arctic is a major concern of CAF cannot be ignored either.

Currently there is no factual evidence for these connections however, I have learned over many years that, "If it walks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, It's probably a duck!

We've been busy adding to our position!

Kraken Robotics - NATO Navy supplier is moving up the ladder with massive, undersea battery facility

A shadow war is brewing under the worlds oceans, Release "The Kraken"!

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Smallcap Drone and autonomous systems stocks are catching the eye of U.S. and Canadian retail investors

Drone & Autonomous Defense Stocks — October 2026

Our five-company drone/autonomous-systems basket provides exposure across air, counter-drone, public safety and subsea defence. Going into October, the opportunity remains compelling, but valuations and execution risk vary considerably.

1. VOLATUS AEROSPACE — FLT.TO

Price: C$0.54 | October view: Most attractive entry

Volatus combines Canadian drone manufacturing, ISR, cargo/logistics, services and its developing V-Cortex autonomy platform. The shares have retreated from C$0.64 on September 23 to C$0.54 despite important operational progress.

Most importantly, Volatus has secured a five-year CAF tactical ISR contract: 100 systems initially, with options for another 4,900. The options are not guaranteed orders, but they establish a potentially important procurement pathway.

Investment case: At approximately C$0.54, FLT offers an attractive combination of depressed share price, improving balance sheet, Canadian sovereign-drone exposure and substantial defence optionality.

October stance: BUY/ACCUMULATE

2. KRAKEN ROBOTICS — PNG.V

Price: C$4.35 | October view: Highest-quality business

Kraken isn't an aerial-drone company; it provides the underwater component of the autonomous-defence thesis through sonar, subsea batteries, mine-hunting technology and marine robotics.

Q2 revenue was C$27.3M with C$5.0M adjusted EBITDA. More importantly, Kraken and newly acquired Covelya had approximately C$355M of announced 2026 orders combined.

At C$4.35, PNG remains roughly 32% below its beginning-of-year level, despite the considerably larger business created by Covelya.

Investment case: Of these five, Kraken has the strongest combination of established revenue, profitability, proprietary technology, naval/NATO exposure and backlog visibility.

October stance: BUY/ACCUMULATE

3. ONDAS — ONDS

Price: US$7.49 | October view: Highest growth

Ondas has evolved into a much larger autonomous-defence platform. TTM revenue is now approximately US$174M, while its expanding portfolio includes autonomous drones, counter-UAS and U.S. defence programs. Its market capitalization is approximately US$4.27B.

The attraction is enormous growth and contract momentum; the risks are equally clear: acquisition integration, high spending and a valuation that already anticipates considerable future success.

Investment case: Excellent growth exposure, but significantly more expensive than FLT and much more complex operationally.

October stance: BUY ON WEAKNESS / HOLD EXISTING

4. WRAP TECHNOLOGIES — WRAP

Price: US$1.40 | October view: Speculative

WRAP is the smallest and most speculative holding. Q2 revenue doubled to US$2.1M and gross margin reached roughly 75%. The company subsequently raised US$12M to expand WrapShield into public safety, federal defence and counter-UAS applications.

At roughly US$1.40 and an US$86M market capitalization, expectations are much lower than for ONDS or DPRO.

Investment case: Interesting asymmetric speculation, but WrapShield and the defence strategy still need commercial validation.

October stance: SMALL SPECULATIVE HOLD/ADD

5. DRAGANFLY — DPRO

Price: US$6.17 | October view: Watch

DPRO has become considerably more interesting. It won essentially the same CAF tactical ISR framework opportunity as Volatus—100 initial systems with options for another 4,900—and qualified across all five Canadian Defence Drone Initiative streams.

Furthermore, Unusual Machines and a U.S. investment fund have invested US$10M at US$5.35/share, strengthening DPRO's U.S. defence connections.

The problem is valuation. At US$6.17 DPRO carries an approximately US$231M market cap against only US$6.37M TTM revenue—a roughly 36× price/sales multiple. Shares outstanding have also increased substantially over the past year.

Investment case: Excellent strategic potential, but investors are already paying heavily for revenue that hasn't arrived yet. Around the US$5.35 strategic-financing level, the risk/reward would become more interesting.

October stance: WATCH

October 2026 — Capital Priority

FLT → PNG → ONDS → WRAP → DPRO

For new money in October, FLT and PNG stand out for different reasons. FLT offers the more asymmetric Canadian drone/defence opportunity at today's depressed C$0.54 price, while PNG provides the stronger operating business, positive adjusted EBITDA and substantial defence order book.

ONDS remains an important growth holding but doesn't need to be chased. WRAP warrants only a small speculative allocation until its new defence strategy produces meaningful contracts.

And DPRO stays on the watch list. The company is becoming strategically interesting, but at US$6.17 the valuation is difficult to justify from current revenue. A retreat toward US$5.35 or below, or a major new contract that materially changes expected revenue, would warrant another look.

Bottom line

Going into October, I would concentrate incremental drone/autonomy capital primarily in Volatus and Kraken, retain Ondas as the larger high-growth U.S. autonomy position, keep WRAP small and speculative, and wait for a better DPRO entry or stronger contract confirmation.

Monday, September 28, 2026

The Qualcomm-Amazon deal - and how Qualcomm and Nvidia fit in Robotics development!

On September 8, 2026, Qualcomm announced a multi-generation AI data-center partnership with Amazon/AWS. This is considerably more important than a conventional chip-supply agreement because it gives Qualcomm a credible path into the hyperscale AI market alongside its existing Meta relationship. Qualcomm

What Amazon and Qualcomm are doing

There are really three pieces to the agreement.

1. Custom AI silicon for AWS. Qualcomm and Amazon will jointly develop customized chips for AWS's large-scale AI infrastructure, with a particular emphasis on AI inference—running trained AI models rather than training them. Qualcomm's pitch is power efficiency: generating more AI output per watt, which becomes increasingly important as hyperscalers run into power and cooling constraints. Qualcomm

2. Qualcomm gets into AWS's AI networking infrastructure. This may be almost as interesting as the processors. Qualcomm will provide technology for high-speed optical connectivity, including links extending to 1.6 Tbps and future generations, using its SerDes and optical-DSP technology. In other words, Qualcomm isn't merely trying to sell Amazon an AI processor—it wants silicon inside the networking fabric connecting AI servers and racks. Qualcomm Investor Relations

3. Amazon received warrants tied to potentially enormous purchases. Qualcomm issued Amazon warrants for 25 million QCOM shares at $161.26 per share, representing roughly $4 billion if exercised. Importantly, those warrants vest in stages tied to commercial arrangements and Amazon purchases that could reach $60 billion of Qualcomm server chips and related technology. Reuters

That last point requires some care: this does not mean Qualcomm has booked a guaranteed $60 billion order. The structure gives Amazon incentives as purchases scale toward that amount. Qualcomm's own announcement does not disclose firm unit volumes or a detailed deployment schedule. Qualcomm

Why I think this matters so much for Qualcomm

This reinforces our thesis around QCOM: Qualcomm is evolving from

Smartphones to Edge AI → Physical AI → Data-center AI infrastructure.

And Amazon is now a powerful validation point.

Qualcomm unveiled its Dragonfly data-center portfolio this year, covering CPUs, AI accelerators, custom silicon and connectivity. Meta already agreed to use Qualcomm's Dragonfly C1000 CPUs in next-generation servers. Amazon now adds a second hyperscaler relationship, centered on custom inference silicon and connectivity. Data Center Dynamics

The emerging picture looks something like:

Amazon AWS
↓
Qualcomm custom AI silicon
↓
AI inference
↓
Qualcomm SerDes / optical DSP
↓
1.6T+ data-center networking

That is a dramatically larger addressable market than Qualcomm's traditional Snapdragon handset franchise.

The $60-billion number is especially interesting

For perspective, Reuters reports that Qualcomm is targeting $15 billion of annual data-center chip revenue by 2029. The Amazon arrangement gives some credibility to what previously looked like a very ambitious target. Reuters

The warrant structure also creates unusual alignment. If Qualcomm's technology works well and Amazon dramatically increases purchases, Amazon can become a meaningful Qualcomm shareholder.

There is a downside: if all 25 million warrants ultimately vest and are exercised, existing QCOM shareholders face some dilution. But that dilution would occur in connection with very substantial commercial purchases, so investors need to evaluate the dilution against the revenue generated.

Why Amazon wants Qualcomm

AWS already develops its own silicon—Graviton CPUs, Trainium AI accelerators and Inferentia inference chips. So Amazon isn't abandoning custom silicon and simply buying Qualcomm processors.

Rather, Qualcomm brings intellectual property and engineering expertise in areas Amazon increasingly needs: low-power compute (Robotics), custom silicon, high-speed SerDes, optical DSPs, system integration and inference optimization. Data Center Dynamics

This fits an important change occurring in AI. Training giant models made NVIDIA GPUs indispensable. But as hundreds of millions of users and AI agents continuously run those models, inference becomes an enormous workload of its own.

Qualcomm is effectively betting:

AI inference will eventually dwarf AI training in volume, and electricity efficiency will become one of the industry's most important competitive advantages.

That's precisely where Qualcomm's decades of designing high-performance processors under severe power constraints become relevant.

What it means for the QCOM investment thesis

For someone evaluating Qualcomm primarily as a smartphone-chip company, this agreement changes the picture materially.

The company now has credible exposure to hyperscale AI compute + custom silicon + AI networking + edge AI + automotive + robotics/physical AI.

The principal risk is execution. Amazon has not guaranteed $60 billion of purchases, NVIDIA remains extraordinarily entrenched, and Qualcomm must prove that Dragonfly/custom silicon can move from design wins into large-scale production revenue.

But Amazon joining Meta as a major hyperscaler relationship makes Qualcomm's data-center ambitions substantially harder to dismiss as merely a roadmap.

For our QCOM thesis specifically, I consider the Amazon agreement one of the most important developments we've seen this year. It strengthens the part of the thesis that had previously been the least proven: Qualcomm becoming a serious AI data-center infrastructure supplier, while the edge/robotics opportunity remains intact.

The Edge Edge!

Qualcomm has an “edge at the edge” because much of the next wave of AI will move out of giant data centres and into physical devices—robots, humanoids, vehicles, drones, industrial machines, PCs and smartphones—where AI must operate locally, instantly and with limited battery power.

This is precisely where Qualcomm has spent decades building expertise: highly power-efficient processors that combine CPU, GPU, NPU/AI acceleration, connectivity, cameras, sensors and real-time processing in compact systems.

While NVIDIA dominates centralized AI training, Qualcomm's particular opportunity is AI inference at the physical edge, where sending every decision back to the cloud is too slow, expensive or unreliable.

If Physical AI develops as expected, Qualcomm's competitive advantage could therefore be its ability to put a powerful, energy-efficient “AI brain” directly inside millions of intelligent machines—an “edge at the edge.”

Robotics:

Qualcomm now has several concrete relationships with robotics manufacturers, including humanoid companies. The most significant are Figure and NEURA Robotics, and Qualcomm says its processors are already powering robots from other OEMs including Booster and VinMotion. Qualcomm

The relationships break down like this:

Robotics company	Qualcomm relationship	Significance
Figure AI	Collaborating to define the next generation of compute architecture for Figure's humanoids	Very important
NEURA Robotics	Long-term strategic collaboration; Dragonwing processors + NEURA humanoids/robots	Very important
Booster Robotics	Dragonwing processors already powering humanoid platforms	Commercial ecosystem
VinMotion	Dragonwing processors powering humanoid platforms	Commercial ecosystem
KUKA Robotics	Discussions/collaboration around next-generation robotics solutions	Industrial robotics opportunity
Advantech / AutoCore	AMR and industrial robotics development	Industrial Physical AI
PickNik Robotics	Qualcomm agreed this month to acquire it; owns/stewards MoveIt robotics software	Strategically important

Qualcomm describes the Dragonwing IQ10 as essentially the "brain of the robot"—a processor designed specifically for advanced AMRs and full-sized humanoids. It integrates CPU, NPU/AI acceleration, vision, sensor processing, connectivity and real-time control. Qualcomm

1. Figure is the one I watch most closely

Figure AI and Qualcomm announced in January that they are collaborating on the next generation of compute architecture as Figure scales its humanoid platforms.

Figure CEO Brett Adcock specifically highlighted Qualcomm's combination of compute performance and energy efficiency as a building block for scaling Figure's humanoids. Qualcomm

This is particularly interesting because Figure is trying to manufacture humanoids at very large scale.

The relationship suggests Qualcomm wants to occupy a position analogous to:

NVIDIA → AI servers

Qualcomm → autonomous robots / Physical AI

It is far too early to say Qualcomm will achieve that position, but that is clearly the strategic direction.

2. NEURA Robotics is an even broader agreement

NEURA Robotics and Qualcomm announced a long-term strategic collaboration in March 2026.

This goes considerably beyond supplying a processor.

They're developing what the companies call a "Brain + Nervous System" reference architecture for robots. Qualcomm supplies Dragonwing compute, AI acceleration, connectivity and software; NEURA contributes the robot hardware and embodied-AI stack. The architecture is intended for robotic arms, AMRs, service robots and humanoids. Qualcomm

That is exactly the type of relationship I'd want to see if the thesis is that Qualcomm becomes a major picks-and-shovels supplier to Physical AI.

3. Qualcomm silicon is already inside humanoid platforms

Qualcomm says its Dragonwing industrial processors already power humanoid robots from Booster Robotics and VinMotion, among other robotics manufacturers. Its newer IQ10 reference-design program also includes NEURA, Booster and VinMotion as early-access ecosystem partners. Qualcomm

So this isn't entirely a 2028–2030 story. There is hardware being developed and deployed now.

4. And Qualcomm just made another very interesting move

Only five days ago—September 23—Qualcomm announced an agreement to acquire PickNik.

PickNik is the longtime steward of MoveIt, one of the most widely used open-source software frameworks for robotic motion planning and manipulation.

Qualcomm intends to integrate MoveIt much more tightly with Dragonwing. That potentially gives Qualcomm both:

Robot hardware compute: Dragonwing
+
Robot software/motion layer: MoveIt
+
AI inference: Qualcomm NPU
+
Connectivity: Wi-Fi/5G/6G
+
Real-time control: Dragonwing robotics architecture**

That's strategically much more interesting than merely selling chips. Qualcomm

But there are some conspicuous absences

I don't find evidence of announced Qualcomm compute agreements with Tesla Optimus, Boston Dynamics or Apptronik.

For example, Apptronik's disclosed AI relationship is with Google DeepMind; its latest Apollo 2 announcement describes fleets collecting real-world data to develop humanoid AI models in partnership with DeepMind. Apptronik

And I would not assume Tesla is a future Qualcomm customer. Tesla has strong incentives to develop its own Optimus compute architecture.

Why this strengthens the QCOM thesis we've been discussing

This is where our interest in Qualcomm as a Physical AI investment becomes increasingly relevant. Qualcomm is building an actual robotics ecosystem rather than simply claiming that Snapdragon-type processors could someday be used in robots. Qualcomm

And the timing is interesting because Qualcomm's Dragonwing IQ10 can deliver up to 700 TOPS, while supporting as many as 20 cameras plus lidar/radar and real-time control—all designed around relatively power-efficient edge computation. Qualcomm

That potentially puts Qualcomm into three enormous AI markets simultaneously:

Amazon/Meta → Data-center AI

PCs/phones/automotive → Edge AI

Figure/NEURA/Booster/VinMotion → Physical AI & humanoids

That third category was considerably more speculative when we first discussed the "sleeping dragon" QCOM thesis. As of September 2026, it is becoming much more tangible.

Saturday, September 19, 2026

From Qualcomm and IONQ to some high tech microcaps, a list of our recent articles/stocks buys

Here is a re-cap of our most recent articles and stock buys:

Sept 2026

June 2026

Kraken Robotics acquisition of Coveya and it's subsidiaries will make this a much larger, international player in the subsea robotics market!

Kraken Robotics is in the right place, at the right time, with the right technology for eager buyers!

Thursday, August 6, 2026

Is this a good time to buy or add to Qualcomm stock? I believe it is "on the EDGE" so to speak!

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

IONQ has effectively assembled a quantum conglomerate!

Monday, June 15, 2026

Institutional investors recent "bought deal" is a very positive for Volatus Aerospace!

Volatus Aerospace is one of those microcaps that should not be overlooked

February 16, 2025

Cameco Corp's Uranium is a crucial component of energy futures

Sept 16 2026

Bought some LUN today - Lundin Mining
The Board recently Approved Up to $100M to Share-Repurchase Program for Remainder of 2026 >LUN.T

Monday, September 14, 2026

Could there be a re-awakening of Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock this year? It looks that way!

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Xanadu Photonic Quantum Technology

Xanadu Photonic Quantum Technology on Canadian Government radar! XNDU

Canada Makes a Major Bet on Photonic Quantum Computing

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Volatus Aerospace just got a real "shot in the arm" from CAF

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Canada Nickel is speculative, but the upside could be enormous. We took a small position!

Saturday, June 27, 2026

A thoughtful Space infrastructure portfolio should include these three company's stock!

uesday, September 1, 2026

Keeping dry powder for the "Great Ai rotation"? 10 Stocks we like for the next 3 to 12 months!

Follow me on Linkedin!

Monday, September 14, 2026

Could there be a re-awakening of Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock this year? It looks that way!

RXRX has several identifiable catalysts between now and year-end 2026 that could materially move the shares, and the setup looks more interesting than it did when we last reviewed the company in August. The important distinction is that the next move is likely to be driven by clinical validation, not simply enthusiasm for “AI drug discovery.”

RXRX — What could move the stock before year-end?

1. REC-4881: November looks like the biggest near-term catalyst

This is the event I would put at the top of the list.

Recursion has confirmed that additional Phase 2 data for REC-4881 in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) will be presented in a Presidential Plenary session at a leading hereditary gastrointestinal meeting in November 2026.

REC-4881 is important because the earlier data showed rapid and durable reductions in polyp burden, and there currently are no FDA-approved pharmacotherapies specifically for FAP. Recursion is also discussing the program with the FDA and sees a potential path toward a registrational study.

Potential stock impact: HIGH.

If November's larger dataset confirms meaningful efficacy, acceptable tolerability and durability—and particularly if Recursion provides a credible FDA/registrational path—I think this could become the event that changes the market's perception of RXRX from:

“Interesting AI drug-discovery company”

“AI drug-discovery company that may actually have produced a commercially viable medicine.”

That distinction is enormous.

2. REC-1245: another H2 2026 clinical readout

This one may actually have greater upside surprise potential.

Recursion expects additional Phase 1 monotherapy dose-escalation data for REC-1245 during H2 2026. REC-1245 is an RBM39 degrader targeting difficult, genomically unstable cancers and originated from Recursion's AI/Bio platform work around CDK12 biology.

Management estimates more than 100,000 potentially addressable patients, although that is obviously a very early-stage commercial estimate rather than anything approaching forecast revenue.

Potential stock impact: HIGH, but higher risk than REC-4881.

Good early efficacy signals could be particularly powerful because they would provide another independent piece of evidence that Recursion's discovery engine can generate useful drugs.

3. REC-7735 is moving into humans

There's another development I think deserves more attention.

The FDA has cleared the IND for REC-7735, Recursion's PI3Kα H1047R inhibitor, and the company expects the Phase 1/2 study to begin during H2 2026.

Recursion describes the compound as having >100× selectivity for mutant PI3Kα H1047R versus wild-type PI3Kα. The investment thesis is that this could potentially suppress the cancer-driving mutation more deeply while avoiding some toxicity associated with inhibiting normal PI3Kα.

2026 stock impact: MODERATE.

Trial initiation isn't nearly as important as actual clinical data, but it adds another credible clinical asset to the pipeline.

4. Roche/Genentech may be the sleeper catalyst

This development is particularly important to the AI thesis.

Genentech recently advanced the first neuroscience target discovered through the Recursion collaboration into a joint early-discovery program. Recursion calls this early evidence that its platform can generate novel, biologically validated drug targets.

And there could be additional Roche/Genentech target milestones.

This matters because outside validation from a sophisticated pharmaceutical company can arguably be more valuable to RXRX's platform valuation than another impressive AI model demonstration.

If Genentech selects additional Recursion-generated targets, investors may begin assigning greater value to the Recursion OS itself, rather than valuing RXRX primarily as a collection of experimental drugs.

Potential impact: MODERATE-HIGH.

5. Sanofi could provide another validation event

Recursion says its joint programs with Sanofi have made significant progress toward development-candidate designation.

Management specifically identifies potential development-candidate and late-stage discovery milestones over the coming 12 months, following an oral first-in-class oncology lead-series milestone during 2026.

This is important because successful Sanofi + Roche/Genentech programs would demonstrate that the Recursion platform is repeatable across different pharmaceutical partners.

6. The financial story has improved

This isn't as exciting as clinical data, but it reduces one of my biggest concerns with RXRX: cash burn and dilution.

At June 30 Recursion had approximately $556.8 million of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash and expects its runway to extend into early 2028 without additional financing. Management also reduced expected 2026 cash operating expenses to below $375 million, versus previous guidance below $390 million.

That's roughly a 40% reduction in cash operating expense compared with pro-forma 2024.

That gives management considerably more breathing room to reach the upcoming clinical milestones before needing additional capital.

My RXRX catalyst ranking

Catalyst	Timing	Potential stock impact
REC-4881 additional Phase 2 data	November 2026	🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
REC-4881 FDA/regulatory update	H2 2026	🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
REC-1245 additional Phase 1 data	H2 2026	🔥🔥🔥🔥
Additional Roche/Genentech targets	2026–27	🔥🔥🔥🔥
Sanofi development milestones	2026–27	🔥🔥🔥
REC-7735 Phase 1/2 initiation	H2 2026	🔥🔥
Further expense/runway improvement	Q3/Q4	🔥🔥

What has changed in my investment view

I would now characterize RXRX as a speculative accumulation candidate ahead of the November REC-4881 data, rather than simply an AI-biotech stock to watch.

There is a potentially powerful three-layer catalyst structure developing:

Clinical validation → Big Pharma validation → AI-platform validation.

REC-4881 and REC-1245 address the first. Roche/Genentech and Sanofi address the second. If both occur simultaneously, they begin validating the third—and that is where the really large valuation change could eventually occur.

The downside is equally important: poor REC-4881 or REC-1245 data could hit RXRX hard. This remains clinical-stage biotech, and the stock should be sized accordingly.

My current view

Speculative rating: 8.5/10

Most important date/window: November 2026

Most important asset: REC-4881

Potential surprise asset: REC-1245

Most important external validation: Roche/Genentech

Biggest risk: clinical results fail to validate the promise of the AI discovery platform.

Ed Note:

I am more inclined to hold/add selectively into weakness ahead of the November catalyst than sell the position now. But I will not make the position oversized before seeing the REC-4881 data.

I will monitor RXRX through the November REC-4881 presentation and alert you if a new clinical, FDA, Sanofi or Roche/Genentech catalyst appears.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals investor relations

Aug 19th 2026

Adding to RXRX, Recursion Pharmaceuticals Stocks today!

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Canada Nickel is speculative, but the upside could be enormous. We took a small position!

Canada Nickel Company (TSXV: CNC) — Investment Note

September 2026 | Speculative Buy / Accumulate

Canada Nickel Company is becoming increasingly interesting around the C$1.40 area. The investment thesis is gradually shifting from “Will the massive Crawford Nickel Project ever be built?” toward the more important question of “How will Crawford be financed, and how much dilution will existing shareholders face?”

The case has improved materially. Crawford has received its positive federal Decision Statement, removing a major regulatory hurdle, while Canada Nickel is targeting a 2027 construction decision. The company is developing a financing structure incorporating debt, government investment tax credits, strategic investment and equity. Importantly, EDC has provided a US$500-million financing letter of interest, while refundable federal investment tax credits could potentially contribute hundreds of millions toward development costs.

Canada Nickel also has unusually strong strategic backing for a junior developer. Agnico Eagle, Samsung SDI and Anglo American are significant shareholders. Their involvement doesn't guarantee Crawford's success, but it provides valuable third-party validation of both the deposit and its potential strategic importance to North America's critical-minerals supply chain.

The principal risk remains financing. Crawford is a multi-billion-dollar project, CNC remains a pre-production company, and nickel prices continue to face pressure from abundant Indonesian supply. Significant equity issuance could dilute existing shareholders. For that reason, CNC should be considered a high-risk, high-upside development-stage investment rather than a conventional mining stock.

Investment Approach

At approximately C$1.40–C$1.45, I would consider establishing or adding to a starter position rather than buying the entire intended position immediately. Further weakness toward C$1.25–C$1.35 would provide a more attractive accumulation opportunity, assuming the Crawford thesis remains intact.

Investment Rating: 8.5/10 — Speculative Buy/Accumulate

The single most important catalyst to watch is now Crawford financing. If Canada Nickel can demonstrate that this enormous project can be financed through government incentives, EDC and other debt, strategic partners and limited equity issuance—without severely diluting existing shareholders—the market could begin valuing CNC very differently. That is where I believe the largest potential re-rating opportunity lies.