"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Kraken Robotics acquisition of Coveya and it's subsidiaries will make this a much larger, international player in the subsea robotics market!

 



Kraken has been granted market approval of the acquisition of Covelya Group, a leading international provider of mission-critical underwater technology solutions operating through its subsidiary companies including:

Sonardyne International Limited, EIVA A/S, Forcys Limited, Wavefront Systems Limited, Voyis Imaging Inc., and Chelsea Technologies Ltd. 

This acquisition is a "future tech" game changer as Kraken grows into a NATO and international partner in the sub sea robotics market. 

For Kraken Robotics shareholders, I believe this acquisition is transformational.

 I would argue it is the most important event in the company's history, even more significant than any individual NATO contract announced to date.

The Simple Version

Before the acquisition, Kraken was primarily known for:

  • Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS)
  • Underwater batteries
  • Minehunting systems (KATFISH)
  • Subsea imaging and robotics

After the acquisition, Kraken becomes something much larger:

A vertically integrated global subsea defense and maritime technology company capable of supplying most of the critical systems needed by autonomous underwater vehicles, mine warfare systems, subsea surveillance networks, and naval intelligence platforms.


This moves Kraken from being a niche supplier to becoming a potential "prime-level" subsea technology partner.


Why Sonardyne Matters


The crown jewel here is Sonardyne International.

Sonardyne is one of the world's leading providers of:

  • Underwater navigation
  • Acoustic positioning
  • Underwater communications
  • Tracking systems
  • Autonomous vehicle guidance

These technologies are used by:

  • NATO navies
  • Offshore energy companies
  • Undersea infrastructure operators
  • Research organizations

Think of Sonardyne as the underwater equivalent of GPS and communications infrastructure.

Kraken previously could "see" underwater using SAS.

Now it can also:

  • Navigate underwater
  • Communicate underwater
  • Position underwater assets
  • Track underwater assets

That is a major leap.


Why This Is Important For NATO

The NATO naval buildout is increasingly focused on:

  • Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs)
  • Uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)
  • Mine countermeasures
  • Arctic surveillance
  • Protection of pipelines and subsea cables
  • Seabed warfare

The challenge is that these systems require multiple technologies:

CapabilityProvider
Sonar imagingKraken
BatteriesKraken
NavigationSonardyne
CommunicationsSonardyne
Survey softwareEIVA
Underwater imagingVoyis
Environmental sensingChelsea
Sonar enhancementWavefront

Kraken can now offer much of this package itself.

That makes Kraken substantially more attractive to:

  • NATO navies
  • Defence primes
  • Naval system integrators

Why EIVA Is A Big Deal

EIVA brings advanced software and autonomous mission planning.

Many investors focus on hardware.

The highest-margin businesses in defense often become:

  • Software
  • Data processing
  • Mission management
  • AI-enabled decision support

EIVA adds these capabilities and gives Kraken recurring software revenues.


Voyis Is Another Hidden Gem
Voyis Subsea Laser imaging

Voyis Imaging provides world-class underwater optical imaging.

Combining:

  • Kraken SAS sonar
  • Voyis imaging

creates a powerful intelligence package for:

  • Mine detection
  • Cable inspection
  • Port security
  • Underwater surveillance

This combination could become a preferred solution for NATO mine warfare operations.


The Revenue Impact

The numbers are substantial.

Management indicated the combined company would have approximately:

  • $365 million revenue (2025 basis)
  • ~24% adjusted EBITDA margins
  • More than 700 customers
  • Approximately 1,200 employees
  • Operations across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and South America.

For perspective:

A few years ago Kraken was a small-cap Canadian ocean technology company.

This acquisition potentially turns it into one of the

largest publicly traded subsea technology firms in the world.


Why This Helps Future NATO Contracts

This may be the biggest investment implication.

Previously Kraken might win a contract for:

  • Sonar
  • Batteries
  • Minehunting equipment

Now Kraken can bid for larger portions of a naval program.

Instead of selling a sensor, Kraken can help deliver an integrated system.

Defense ministries generally prefer fewer suppliers and integrated solutions.

That increases:

  • Contract size
  • Customer stickiness
  • Long-term support revenue
  • Follow-on procurement opportunities

Exactly the type of revenue NATO modernization programs generate.


The Main Risk

There is one major risk.

The acquisition cost:

$615 million.

To finance it Kraken raised significant capital and added debt.

So shareholders must monitor:

  • Integration execution
  • Debt management
  • Synergy realization
  • Customer retention

If management executes well, the acquisition could be highly accretive.

If integration struggles, the size of the deal means mistakes would be costly.


Bottom Line For A Long-Term PNG Investor

If your thesis is that NATO, Canada, the UK, and allied nations will dramatically increase spending on:

  • Mine warfare
  • Undersea surveillance
  • Arctic security
  • Autonomous naval systems
  • Protection of subsea cables and energy infrastructure
  • (Ed Note: it is our thesis)

then this acquisition strengthens that thesis considerably.

Before Covelya, Kraken was a highly specialized technology supplier.

After Covelya, Kraken begins to look more like a global subsea defense technology platform with sonar, batteries, navigation, communications, imaging, software, and autonomous systems under one roof.

From an investment perspective, I view this as moving PNG from a "promising Canadian defense tech company" toward a potential "underwater defense systems champion" serving NATO and allied navies over the next decade. 

The key question is no longer whether Kraken has excellent technology—it is whether management can successfully integrate a company nearly as large as itself and convert that scale into larger defense awards.

Ed Note

I believe this is the rocket fuel Kraken needed to become a complete, international entity 

and a strong NATO partner!


Monday, June 15, 2026

Institutional investors recent "bought deal" is a very positive for Volatus Aerospace!

 



Updated Business / Investment Report

Volatus Aerospace (TSX: FLT)

Bought Deal Validation, Institutional Backing, Insider Alignment & the Rise of Canada’s Sovereign Drone Platform (June 2026)


Executive Summary

Volatus Aerospace is transitioning from a speculative drone-services company into what may become a strategically important Canadian aerospace/autonomy platform, positioned at the convergence of:

  • Canada’s sovereign defence buildout
  • NATO military modernization
  • autonomous cargo logistics
  • ISR (intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance)
  • counter-drone systems (CUAS)
  • Arctic sovereignty
  • industrial aerial intelligence
  • AI-enabled aviation systems

The most important recent catalyst is the C$34.5M bought deal financing, which materially strengthens Volatus’ balance sheet, expands institutional sponsorship, and improves its ability to compete for larger sovereign/NATO contracts.

The central investment question is evolving from:

“Can Volatus survive?”

to:

“Can Volatus become Canada’s sovereign drone and autonomous logistics champion?”


1. The Bought Deal — Why It Matters More Than Many Investors Realize

🚨 June 2026 Bought Deal Financing

Volatus completed a C$34.5M bought deal public offering at C$0.65/share, issuing 53.13M shares, including the full exercise of the over-allotment option.

The Syndicate Matters

The deal was led by:

  • Desjardins Capital Markets (sole bookrunner)
  • Stifel Nicolaus Canada (co-lead)

with participation from:

  • Canaccord Genuity
  • Haywood Securities
  • Cormark
  • Ventum Financial
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • Scotia Capital.

Why This Is Important

For a micro/small-cap defence company:

institutional syndicate quality matters enormously.

This was not a weak retail financing.

The presence of RBC and Scotia is particularly notable because:

  • they generally avoid weak speculative financings
  • they improve institutional credibility
  • they can broaden future investor access

Perhaps most importantly:

the over-allotment was fully exercised.

That typically signals:

stronger demand than expected.


2. Institutional Investors — Why This Changes the Story

Although Volatus has not publicly disclosed the end-buyers yet, the structure strongly suggests:

Increasing Institutional Participation

Likely participants include:

  • Canadian small-cap funds
  • aerospace/industrial investors
  • growth institutions
  • family offices
  • defence-themed investors

Collectively, the bought-deal participants likely now control:

roughly 7–8% of the company post-financing.

Why This Matters

Institutional investors bring:

✔ longer holding periods
✔ capital-market credibility
✔ analyst attention
✔ improved liquidity
✔ easier future fundraising

Most importantly:

institutional investors often arrive before major re-ratings.

If future filings reveal:

  • defence-focused funds
  • pension involvement
  • aerospace specialists

the investment thesis strengthens materially.


3. Insider Behaviour — One of the Strongest Signals

One of the most encouraging aspects of Volatus today is:

insiders continue to hold and invest, rather than aggressively sell.

For speculative growth companies, insider behavior matters.

What investors normally fear:

  • insider selling
  • excessive option liquidation
  • “story stock” management exits

Instead, Volatus insiders have:

✔ remained heavily aligned
✔ retained meaningful ownership
✔ continued long-term positioning

Why this matters:

When management continues holding through dilution and volatility, it usually signals:

confidence in long-term value creation.

That does not guarantee success.

But it improves alignment between:

shareholders and leadership.

 For instance...

Founder/CEO Glen Lynch owns a very substantial equity position — in excess of ~68 million shares (directly and indirectly controlled) based on recent company disclosures and investor materials. While the exact number fluctuates due to financings, RSUs, warrants, and corporate transactions,.

With 35 years experience in the Aerospace industry, dealing with Government agencies and other Aerospace entities, this insider ownership alone, speaks volumes about what is becoming a great investment opportunity.


4. Technology Stack — Why Volatus Is More Than “A Drone Company”

Volatus increasingly resembles a:

full-stack aerial autonomy platform

rather than simply a drone operator.

Its technology portfolio is becoming highly aligned with NATO and sovereign defence needs.


🚨 SKYDRA™ — Counter-Drone Software Platform

Launched in 2026, SKYDRA is Volatus’ first SaaS defence platform for:

  • counter-drone planning
  • CUAS simulations
  • mission rehearsal
  • operational readiness

Target users:

  • NATO militaries
  • airports
  • energy infrastructure
  • ports
  • governments
  • critical infrastructure operators.

Strategic importance:

Modern warfare increasingly requires:

defending against hostile drones.

Ukraine demonstrated:

drones are cheap; defending against them is mandatory.

SKYDRA could become:

a recurring software revenue engine.

This is important because...

 software businesses receive far higher valuation multiples than hardware operators.


✈️ Autonomous VTOL Cargo Drone Platform

Through its partnership with Dufour Aerospace, Volatus is commercializing:

hybrid-electric autonomous VTOL cargo systems.


Key advantages:

✔ no runway required
✔ autonomous operation
✔ Arctic capable
✔ offshore logistics
✔ military resupply potential

NATO relevance:

This technology directly addresses:

one of NATO’s biggest logistics problems:

moving supplies into:

  • remote areas
  • contested zones
  • Arctic environments

without risking pilots.

Applications include:

Defence

  • Arctic sovereignty
  • NATO logistics
  • battlefield resupply
  • ISR support

Commercial

  • mining
  • oil & gas
  • offshore wind
  • emergency medicine
  • remote communities

This is an underappreciated opportunity.


🛰️ SWITCH Prime ISR Platform

Volatus’ SWITCH Prime UAV is built for:

  • long-range surveillance
  • ISR missions
  • border security
  • Arctic monitoring
  • infrastructure inspection.

Why this matters:

Canada’s defence priorities increasingly emphasize:

Arctic domain awareness.

SWITCH Prime fits directly into:

  • border monitoring
  • maritime awareness
  • NATO surveillance

🎯 ASCENT SPIRIT Tactical UAV

The ASCENT SPIRIT system supports:

  • tactical ISR
  • persistent monitoring
  • perimeter defence
  • mission-critical surveillance.

Its modular architecture allows:

✔ payload flexibility
✔ autonomous navigation
✔ rugged deployment

This aligns directly with:

modern battlefield autonomy doctrine.


5. Why Canada & NATO Matter So Much to Volatus

The biggest investment variable remains:

Will Canada make Volatus strategically important?

Canada’s defence strategy increasingly emphasizes:

✔ sovereign manufacturing
✔ domestic autonomy systems
✔ Arctic defence
✔ ISR capability
✔ counter-UAS readiness.

Volatus already possesses:

  • operational infrastructure
  • pilots
  • drone operations
  • BVLOS approvals
  • training systems
  • manufacturing initiatives
  • autonomous software
  • defence advisory leadership.

This makes Volatus one of the few publicly traded Canadian companies already positioned for that shift.


6. Financial Progress — Still Early, But Improving

Q1 2026 showed:

Positive developments:

record Q1 gross margins (35%)
✔ stronger operational efficiency
✔ improved liquidity position
✔ defence investment accelerating.

Risks remain:

⚠ still loss-making
⚠ dilution risk
⚠ contract timing risk
⚠ scaling execution risk.

This remains:

a venture-style investment.


Final Investment Assessment

The recent bought deal substantially changes the Volatus story.

Before:

speculative undercapitalized drone company.

Increasingly now:

institutionally financed sovereign aerospace/autonomy platform.

The combination of:

  • stronger balance sheet
  • institutional sponsorship
  • insider alignment
  • autonomous cargo systems
  • defence software (SKYDRA)
  • ISR technology
  • NATO positioning
  • sovereign Canadian defence alignment

creates a materially stronger investment thesis than existed even 12 months ago.

The opportunity is substantial!

But execution still determines whether FLT becomes:

Canada’s sovereign drone/autonomous defence champion! 



Thursday, June 11, 2026

Smackover is a "made in America" Lithium project designed to reduce dependance on China

 


Standard Lithium (SLI) & Smackover Lithium

Investment / Business Report (June 2026)

How the May 26 “Final Contract” Changes the Story

Executive Summary

The May 26, 2026 announcement from Standard Lithium (SLI) was a major inflection point, not a routine engineering update. Smackover Lithium — the joint venture between Standard Lithium and Equinor — awarded the last major construction contract needed before a Final Investment Decision (FID) for the South West Arkansas (SWA) project. This effectively moves SLI from a speculative lithium developer toward becoming a credible future domestic U.S. lithium producer.

The key investment question has shifted from:

“Can they build this?”

to:

“Can they execute and finance it?”

That distinction matters enormously.


1. What is Standard Lithium?

Standard Lithium is developing lithium production from brine reservoirs in the U.S. Smackover Formation (Arkansas and Texas), using Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) instead of traditional hard-rock mining or evaporation ponds.

Its flagship asset is the South West Arkansas (SWA) Project, operated through Smackover Lithium, a JV owned:

  • 55% Standard Lithium
  • 45% Equinor (Norwegian energy giant)

The Smackover Formation is increasingly viewed as one of North America’s most important lithium basins because of:

  • existing oil & gas infrastructure,
  • high brine concentrations,
  • large-scale resource potential,
  • proximity to U.S. battery manufacturing.

2. Why the May 26 Contract Was So Important

On May 26, Smackover Lithium awarded the final EPCC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning) contract for the Central Processing Facility (CPF) to S&B Engineers and Hatch. This CPF is effectively the “heart” of the operation.

What the CPF Does

The plant will:

  1. receive lithium-rich brine from wells,
  2. extract lithium using DLE,
  3. purify lithium chloride,
  4. convert it into battery-grade lithium carbonate, and
  5. deliver final product to EV and battery customers.

Critically:

This plant represents roughly two-thirds of total project capital spending.

For investors, this means the project is no longer conceptual.

Why It Matters

The announcement signals:

✅ engineering sufficiently advanced
✅ contractors committed
✅ permitting largely complete
✅ supply chain defined
✅ FID approaching

Remaining hurdles are now mostly:

  • financing,
  • additional customer contracts,
  • construction execution.

That is a dramatically better position than where SLI sat even 18 months ago.


3. Why Smackover Matters to the EV Revolution

Lithium is the critical ingredient in lithium-ion batteries.

Every major EV producer — from Tesla to General Motors and Ford Motor Company — faces a core problem:

secure, local battery supply.

The U.S. presently imports much of its lithium chemicals and remains heavily dependent on China for processing.

Smackover addresses a strategic vulnerability.

Why U.S. Lithium Matters

Smackover Lithium is positioned as:

  • Made-in-America lithium
  • lower geopolitical risk
  • lower shipping dependency
  • lower water intensity vs evaporation ponds
  • compatible with U.S. industrial policy

The SWA project targets 45,000 tonnes/year of battery-grade lithium carbonate across two phases (22,500 tpa Phase 1). That volume could support batteries for hundreds of thousands of EVs annually.

This makes Smackover strategically important not just to EVs, but to:

  • grid storage,
  • robotics,
  • AI/data center battery systems,
  • defense electrification.

4. Technology: Why DLE is a Big Deal

Traditional lithium production:

  • takes years,
  • uses huge evaporation ponds,
  • consumes major water resources.

SLI instead uses Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE).

DLE Advantages

Potentially:

✔ faster production cycles
✔ smaller environmental footprint
✔ better lithium recovery
✔ lower land disruption
✔ scalable inside existing oilfield infrastructure

SLI’s Arkansas demonstration plant has now processed:

  • 1 million barrels of real brine
  • 15,000+ DLE cycles
  • 95%+ lithium recovery
  • 99%+ contaminant rejection

That level of operating data is important because:

Commercial DLE has historically been the market’s biggest skepticism toward SLI.

The technology risk is declining.


5. Partnerships: Why Equinor Changes the Risk Profile

The most important factor for SLI may not be lithium.

It may be Equinor.

Equinor bought into the project in 2024, taking 45%.

Why that matters:


Equinor brings:

  • deep subsurface engineering,
  • energy infrastructure expertise,
  • project execution capability,
  • financing credibility,
  • political influence.

This dramatically lowers execution risk versus a junior mining company acting alone.

Other Important Partners

  • Trafigura → first binding offtake agreement (customer)
  • Aquatech/Koch technology → DLE technology provider
  • U.S. Department of Energy → funding support
  • engineering firms → S&B and Hatch.

6. Financial Position

SLI remains pre-revenue, so traditional valuation metrics are not yet useful.

Q1 2026 Financial Snapshot

  • Cash: US$141M
  • Working capital: US$139.5M
  • Debt: essentially none
  • Quarterly net loss: ~US$2.7M

That balance sheet is surprisingly strong for a development-stage company.

Project Economics (DFS)

South West Arkansas Phase 1:

  • 22,500 tonnes/year
  • ~20% pre-tax IRR
  • ~US$1.7B NPV
  • ~US$1.4B capex

This is where the challenge lies:

SLI still needs major project financing.

However:

The US$225M DOE grant materially improves project bankability and reduces shareholder dilution risk.


7. Future Growth Beyond Arkansas

The market often undervalues SLI’s East Texas optionality.

Beyond SWA, Standard Lithium also controls the Franklin Project in East Texas, another potentially large lithium brine system.

If SWA succeeds:

SLI could evolve from a single-project developer into a multi-basin U.S. lithium platform.

That is where major upside could emerge.


8. Key Risks

1. Execution Risk

Commercial DLE still lacks long global operating history.

2. Financing Risk

Large capex could create dilution if debt markets weaken.

3. Lithium Price Cyclicality

Weak lithium prices could compress project returns.

4. Timeline Risk

First production is targeted around 2029, meaning patience is required.


Investment Conclusion

Bull Case

SLI becomes:

One of America’s first meaningful domestic lithium carbonate producers

using cleaner DLE technology, backed by Equinor, with government funding and long-term EV demand tailwinds.

In that case, today’s valuation will look modest.

Bear Case

Execution delays, financing dilution, or weak lithium prices push commercialization out and suppress returns.

My Assessment (2–4 Year Horizon)

The May 26 contract meaningfully strengthened the investment thesis.

Before this milestone, SLI looked like:

“interesting lithium science.”

Now it looks more like:

“an emerging industrial project approaching construction.”

For a retail investor comfortable with volatility and a multi-year horizon, SLI now fits better into the category of a higher-risk, higher-upside strategic critical minerals play, rather than a purely speculative lithium explorer. 

Previous articles:

"lithium is no longer just an EV story. It’s becoming an AI story. A big one"!


Wednesday, June 10, 2026

C3Ai is a completely unloved stock, but, Tom Seibel is back! Turnaround story or, Value Trap!

 


C3.ai (NYSE: AI) – Business / Investment Report

Potential Turnaround Story or Value Trap?

Focus: The “Tom Siebel Effect”

Date: June 2026


1. Executive Summary

C3.ai represents one of the more controversial “fallen angel” AI stocks in the market today.

Once viewed as a premier enterprise AI platform and briefly trading above $170 after its IPO enthusiasm, the stock has collapsed due to execution failures, slowing growth, leadership instability, and investor skepticism. However, the return of founder Tom Siebel as CEO in May 2026 has materially changed the investment narrative. The question is no longer whether C3.ai is broken — it clearly was — but whether this is now a legitimate founder-led turnaround opportunity.

Investment conclusion:
C3.ai is not yet a confirmed turnaround, but it is now a 

credible asymmetric turnaround candidate.

For a high-risk retail investor seeking AI exposure beyond obvious mega-caps, C3.ai may represent a classic “maximum pessimism” entry point, provided investors accept elevated volatility and execution risk.


2. The “Tom Siebel Effect” — Why This Matters

The central turnaround thesis revolves around one man:

Thomas Siebel

Siebel returned as CEO in May 2026 after stepping back due to serious health issues that materially disrupted sales execution and strategic oversight. Management itself acknowledged that performance deterioration accelerated while Siebel was less involved in day-to-day operations.

This matters because C3.ai is not a commodity SaaS company.

It is an enterprise AI sales organization, where:

  • relationships matter,
  • long sales cycles dominate,
  • government and Fortune 500 trust is essential,
  • executive selling often determines success.

Historically, Siebel has been one of Silicon Valley’s strongest enterprise sales operators, having previously built and sold Siebel Systems to Oracle for approximately $5.8 billion.

Why founder returns sometimes work

Turnaround history shows founder returns can be highly effective when:

✅ the founder remains deeply connected to customers
✅ execution problems (not product failure) caused deterioration
✅ balance sheet strength buys time
✅ organizational bloat gets reset

C3.ai arguably checks all four boxes.

The risk, however, is whether the business deterioration has gone too far.


3. Financials — Broken Business or Temporary Breakdown?

This is where the story becomes complicated.

Fiscal 2026 was ugly.

Quarterly revenue fell sharply to roughly $51.6 million, and bookings disappointed investors. Revenue contraction raised serious concerns about whether C3.ai had simply lost relevance in enterprise AI.

However, several important positives remain:

Strengths

1. Strong cash position

C3.ai still holds approximately $250M+ in annual revenue and substantial liquidity with minimal debt, meaning bankruptcy or forced dilution risk appears limited near term. This gives management time to execute a turnaround.

2. Aggressive restructuring already underway

Management implemented major workforce reductions and restructuring expected to deliver approximately $135 million in annualized cost savings.

This matters because many successful software turnarounds first go through a painful “reset” phase before operating leverage improves.

3. Guidance stabilizing

Despite weak recent performance, management guidance modestly exceeded Wall Street expectations for fiscal 2027, suggesting deterioration may be slowing.

Weaknesses

The biggest problem remains obvious:

Revenue is still shrinking.

Until growth stabilizes and reaccelerates, investors will remain skeptical.

For C3.ai, the key metric is not profitability yet.

It is:

Can they return to sustainable enterprise revenue growth?


4. Business Environment — Better Than It Looks?

Ironically, the macro environment may now favor C3.ai more than at any point in its history.

The enterprise world has moved from:

“Should we use AI?”

to

“How fast can we operationalize AI?”

This shift potentially benefits enterprise orchestration platforms.

C3.ai focuses on:

  • predictive maintenance
  • supply chain optimization
  • defense readiness
  • manufacturing intelligence
  • energy optimization
  • fraud detection
  • generative AI for enterprise workflows

These are real business applications — not chatbot hype.

The problem: brutal competition!

C3.ai now competes with giants including:

Unlike earlier years, C3.ai is no longer a first mover.

Execution now matters far more.


5. Customers, Contracts & Existing Relationships

This is where the bull case becomes more compelling.

C3.ai already serves meaningful enterprise and government customers.

Notable historical and ongoing customers/relationships include:

  • Baker Hughes
  • United States Air Force
  • United States Department of Defense
  • Shell
  • 3M
  • Bank of America
  • Cargill
  • Koch Industries

Key contract: U.S. Air Force

One of the most important developments was expansion of C3.ai’s U.S. Air Force relationship.

In 2025, the contract ceiling increased to $450 million through 2029, focused on predictive maintenance and readiness analytics across military aircraft fleets. This is highly relevant because defense AI spending is growing rapidly.

For someone with our interest in NATO and defense modernization, this is one of the stronger parts of the thesis.

Baker Hughes relationship

The multi-year renewal with Baker Hughes through 2028 remains strategically important because it embeds C3.ai into energy-sector digital transformation.

This partnership gives C3.ai credibility and a distribution mechanism into:

  • oil & gas
  • chemicals
  • industrial infrastructure

6. Potential Future Customers & Growth Areas

If the turnaround works, growth likely comes from six areas:

1. Defense & NATO modernization

Military predictive maintenance, logistics, battlefield readiness, fleet optimization.

2. Utilities & power grids

AI optimization of increasingly strained power systems.

3. Manufacturing

Industrial AI remains underpenetrated.

4. Energy sector

Oil, gas, LNG, chemicals, carbon optimization.

5. Financial fraud detection

Banks increasingly require AI risk systems.

6. Government agencies

Federal AI modernization remains in early innings.

In other words:

C3.ai participates in many of the same long-duration themes you already like:
AI + defense + industrial modernization + infrastructure.


7. Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios

ScenarioWhat HappensPossible Stock Outcome
Bull Case (30%)Siebel fixes execution, revenue reaccelerates, defense + enterprise wins expand2x–4x+ upside
Base Case (40%)Slow stabilization, moderate growthLimited but respectable upside
Bear Case (30%)Revenue keeps deteriorating, hyperscalers dominateValue trap / further downside

The market is currently pricing something closer to the bear case.

That is why speculative investors are interested.


Final Investment View

C3.ai today resembles a high-risk founder-led turnaround, not a broken meme stock.

The biggest reason to consider it is simple:

Tom Siebel is back, and the stock is deeply unloved.

That combination has historically created opportunities.

But this is not yet investable as a “core AI position” like your existing AI tollbooth thesis (MRVL, CRDO, QCOM, etc.).

Instead, I would view it as:

A speculative optionality bet on a founder-led turnaround

For a Canadian retail investor:

TFSA approach: small position sizing, gradual accumulation, and only if willing to tolerate major volatility.

The single most important metric to watch:

Quarterly revenue stabilization and reacceleration.

If revenue turns upward while sentiment remains negative, that is when C3.ai could rerate quickly.

NOTE: This weeks "Shell" news may be critical for an eventual turnaround story!

this is actually more important than the headline first suggests.

C3.ai announced an expanded multi-year agreement with Shell this week (June 4) to scale AI-powered reliability and predictive maintenance across Shell’s global asset operations. Importantly, this is not a pilot project or “proof of concept.” It is an expansion of an existing long-term relationship that began in 2018, which is exactly the type of evidence turnaround investors want to see.

Here is why I think this matters:

1. This validates that Shell is getting real economic value

Shell is not experimenting here.

C3.ai says the existing deployment already monitors 13,000+ pieces of industrial equipment and has generated “hundreds of millions of dollars” of economic value through reduced downtime and improved reliability. Shell is now expanding the relationship instead of shrinking it.

In enterprise software, especially industrial AI:

Renewals and expansions are often more important than flashy new logos.

If Shell were unhappy, they would not deepen the relationship.

That is a meaningful signal.


2. This is moving beyond “AI monitoring” into Agentic AI

The new agreement reportedly adds:

  • AI-agent root cause analysis
  • diagnostic automation
  • remediation recommendations

In simple terms:

Old system:

“Something is wrong with compressor #14.”

New system:

“Compressor #14 is likely failing because vibration + heat + pressure trends resemble three prior failures. Recommended intervention: X.”

This is a much more valuable product category because it moves from detection → diagnosis → action.

Given our broader thesis around Agentic AI, this part is important.

C3.ai may actually have an underappreciated niche in industrial agentic AI, especially for:

  • energy
  • utilities
  • chemicals
  • defense logistics
  • heavy manufacturing

3. Shell could become a “reference customer” for the energy industry

This may be the most underrated aspect.

Energy companies tend to copy proven deployments.

If Shell demonstrates strong ROI, it increases the probability of:

expanding industrial AI budgets.

C3.ai already has credibility in energy through both Shell and Baker Hughes, which creates an ecosystem effect. The long-running relationship with Baker Hughes was also expanded in 2025 to continue AI deployment in energy and industrial markets.


4. Why this matters to the turnaround thesis

For me, this is incrementally bullish, but not thesis-changing by itself.

What it does prove:

✅ Major customers are staying
✅ At least one flagship customer is expanding spend
✅ The product appears to deliver measurable ROI
✅ C3.ai still has enterprise relevance
✅ Siebel’s “industrial AI” thesis may not be broken

What it does NOT yet prove:

❌ Revenue reacceleration across the company
❌ Broad customer momentum
❌ Sustainable growth recovery

In other words:

The Shell news is evidence that C3.ai may still have a strong product in certain verticals.

The open question remains:

Can Tom Siebel turn isolated successes into company-wide execution again?

My interpretation for an investor

If I were building the turnaround case, I would put this development in the “important confirming evidence” bucket.

Not a reason alone to buy.

But if over the next 2–3 quarters we also see:

  • more defense wins,
  • additional industrial expansions,
  • stabilization in revenue,

then this Shell expansion starts to look like...

 the first sign of a real turnaround rather than random good news.