"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label MP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MP. Show all posts

Thursday, July 31, 2025

MP Materials has had a tremendous run in July as the REE fever rose. Going forward, there are others to consider as M&A candidates for MP

 


Based on current data (as of mid-2025), rare earth industry trends, government backing, stage of development, and market positioning, here are the top four REE-related companies most likely to increase significantly in value over the next year, ranked by risk-adjusted upside potential:


๐Ÿฅ‡ 1. Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (TSXV: UCU / OTCQX: UURAF)

Why it could surge:

  • Constructing REE separation facility in Louisiana (RapidSX™ tech)—set to begin commissioning late 2025.

  • Strong U.S. government support via Department of Defense funding (DPA Title III).

  • Positioned to become first U.S.-based independent REE separator in decades.

  • Strategic role in breaking China’s REE monopoly.

Catalysts:

  • Facility commissioning, commercial offtake agreements, potential downstream partnerships.

Risk: Execution and funding dilution risk.


๐Ÿฅˆ 2. Ramaco Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: METC)

Why it could surge:

  • Already profitable from coal, providing internal capital for REE development.

  • Owns a major REE deposit (~1.7M tons TREO), pilot REE plant set for late 2025.

  • Strong cost discipline; low debt.

  • First U.S. company potentially transitioning from coal to REE production + metallurgy.

Catalysts:

  • Pilot plant progress, REE spin-out or joint ventures, metallurgical news.

Risk: REE development is early-stage; valuation still coal-centric.


๐Ÿฅ‰ 3. American Rare Earths Ltd. (OTCQX: ARRNF / ASX: ARR)

Why it could surge:

  • Controls two of the largest undeveloped U.S. REE deposits (La Paz, AZ and Halleck Creek, WY).

  • Exploration results show world-scale tonnage and scalability.

  • Gaining visibility as a U.S. critical minerals supplier—potential acquisition target.

Catalysts:

  • Updated resource estimates, PEA release, government grants, U.S. defense interest.

Risk: No revenue, pre-PEA stage; high dilution potential.


๐Ÿ… 4. Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU)

Why it could surge:

  • Currently producing REEs (NdPr) from monazite at White Mesa Mill.

  • Also active in uranium and vanadium—diversified cash flow.

  • Working toward rare earth separation and metals production.

  • One of few North American producers already shipping REE concentrates.

Catalysts:

  • Rare earth oxide production ramp, long-term supply deals, uranium price spike.

Risk: Multi-commodity exposure adds complexity; commodity volatility.

Honorary mention:  Avalon (AVL.t) see...

nasdaq.com/press-release/avalon-advanced-materials-announces-28-increase-measured-and-indicated-mineral


News-Aug 1st... 

msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-administration-weighs-expanding-price-support-for-u-s-rare-earth-projects-reuters/ar-AA1JFWnQ?ocid=socialshare

๐Ÿงญ Summary Table

RankCompanyTickerKey StrengthNear-Term CatalystsRisk Level
1️⃣Ucore Rare MetalsUCU / UURAFREE separation, U.S. gov't backingFacility launch, contractsModerate
2️⃣Ramaco ResourcesMETCProfitable, REE pivotPilot plant, REE newsModerate
3️⃣American Rare EarthsARRNFMassive U.S. depositsPEA, gov't interestHigh
4️⃣Energy FuelsUUUUAlready processing REEsREO output growthModerate 

Monday, July 7, 2025

The importance of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) used in technologies from Smart phones and AVs to National Defense and Space Tech, cannot be overstated!

 


A small, retail investor looking to gain exposure to rare earth materials might consider MP Materials (MP) and Avalon Advanced Materials (AVL/AVLNF) or Ucore (UCU.t)

Here is how I am approaching the investment, with strategies tailored to risk profile, capital allocation, and market timing.


๐Ÿงพ Step-by-Step Investment Approach

1. Understand Their Profiles

CompanyTickerExchangeStageRegionRisk Level
MP MaterialsMPNYSE (USA)MatureUSALow-to-Medium
Avalon Advanced MaterialsAVLTSX-V (Canada) / OTCQB (AVLNF)Early-stageCanadaHigh (speculative)

2. Diversified Allocation Strategy (Example for $10,000 Portfolio)

Risk AppetiteMP MaterialsAvalon (AVL)Cash / Other
Conservative$7,000 (70%)$1,000 (10%)$2,000 (20%)
Balanced$5,000 (50%)$3,000 (30%)$2,000 (20%)
Aggressive$3,500 (35%)$5,000 (50%)$1,500 (15%)

Why?

  • MP Materials gives you stability, cash flows, and policy tailwinds.

  • AVL offers asymmetric upside if Canada builds its rare earth value chain and AVL scales successfully.


3. Entry Strategy

✅ MP Materials (MP):

  • Buy in tranches on pullbacks or near $16–$18 (historical support levels).

  • Consider:

    • Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) monthly.

    • DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan) if/when dividends resume (none currently).

    • Long-term hold (5+ years), especially as magnet plant comes online in Texas (2025–2026).

✅ Avalon (AVL / AVLNF):

  • Higher volatility—treat as venture capital–style bet.

  • Entry near lows (e.g., <$0.20 CAD) may offer multi-bagger potential if milestones hit.

  • Buy small initial position; increase only after:

    • Major partner/funding announcement.

    • Processing milestones with Saskatchewan Research Council.

    • Government contracts or grant programs.


4. Monitor These Catalysts

MP MaterialsAvalon / Nechalacho
U.S. DoD magnet plant progressFinancing or JV for full-scale processing
Q4/Q1 financials (growth + margins)Offtake agreements for heavy REEs
EV/OEM contracts (GM, Tesla, etc.)Indigenous partnerships & ESG momentum
REE price trends (Nd-Pr especially)Federal critical mineral program funding (Canada)

5. Alternative / Supplementary Exposure

If you want a broader REE basket, consider:

  • ETFs (Note: very few pure-play REE ETFs exist):

    • ๐ŸŸข REMX – VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF

      • MP is a top holding. AVL may be included in future if it grows.

      • Includes Lynas (AUS), Iluka, China Northern Rare Earth, etc.

      • Ucore Rare Metals (constructing a heavy REE separation plant in Louisiana)

  • Battery Metals ETFs – Broader exposure but with lithium/cobalt/nickel too.


๐Ÿ”š Final Thoughts

RecommendationMP MaterialsAvalon Advanced Materials
Buy if you want...Stability + growth + U.S. policy exposureHigh-risk, high-reward REE growth
Best time to enterOn dips below $20Sub-$0.25 CAD on good volume
Exit horizonHold through 2030Re-evaluate after 12–24 months

Conclusion:
๐Ÿ”’ Use MP Materials as your anchor investment in rare earths—de-risked, policy-supported, with upside from magnet integration.

MPs new Magnet plant in Texas


๐Ÿ”ฅ Use AVL as a speculative levered bet on Canada’s REE independence and heavy rare earth supply growth. 

Ongoing Projects & Goals

  • Avalon continues advancing its lithium strategy via its Separation Rapids lithium JV (with Sibelco), its Snowbank lithium deposit, and Lilypad lithium-caesium claims in Ontario.

  • Concurrently, they’re progressing work on the Nechalacho rare earths & zirconium project in the Northwest Territories, which is important for tech and defense supply chains as it is North America's largest deposit of "Heavy" REE's or HREE's . The Northern Miner+6

  • A key focus is the development of Ontario’s first mid‑stream lithium hydroxide processing plant, based in Thunder Bay, to create a supply link between northern lithium resources and battery producers in southern markets.

Update July 21st 2025

Bought...
UCU - TSX
UCORE RARE METALS INC-NEW

Recent news:
"Ucore Launches US Department of Defense Funded $18.4 Million Commercial Rare Earth Refining Project in Louisiana"

From GROK Ai

(MP's) Mountain Pass mine alone may not suffice to meet future needs, making additional mining capacity a strategic priority.

UCore Rare Metals brings advanced separation technology to the table, designed to process rare earth concentrates at high efficiency and low cost.

Ed Note:

Ucore's strengths are, it's separation technology is designed for "Heavy" REEs (Unlike MP) and it's 

Bokan-Dotson Ridge property (Alaska) is rich in Heavies.


See...Ucore.com/Bokan for more information on that project!