Robots, Robotics and Automation - Investing in the "picks and shovels"!

 

If I had to pick only one "pick and shovel" stock to invest in for the robotics (especially humanoid/industrial robot) boom—including plays like Tesla's Optimus—my choice is:

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🏆 Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK)

🔧 Why Rockwell?

1. Pure-play industrial automation leader

• Rockwell is deeply embedded in manufacturing, robotics integration, motion control, industrial sensors, and factory digitization.

• Its FactoryTalk, ControlLogix, and Allen-Bradley product lines are widely used in industrial robotics—from automotive to food production.

2. Strategic partnerships with AI & cloud giants

• Rockwell has deep integrations with Microsoft Azure, NVIDIA Omniverse, and PTC (IoT CAD software)—vital for robotic design, simulation, and operation.

3. Robotics-native clients

• Customers include Tesla, Boeing, Procter & Gamble, and automation integrators. Optimus-style humanoid robots will require factory retooling—which Rockwell enables.

4. Strong financials

• High margins (~25% EBITDA), consistent free cash flow, and a track record of innovation make it a rare combo of growth, quality, and income (1.6% dividend yield).

• Rockwell is profitable, with global exposure and minimal debt pressure.

5. Long-term megatrends tailwind

• Growth in "lights-out factories", robotic arms, machine vision, and motion automation all converge at Rockwell.

• As companies transition from legacy automation to AI-enhanced robotic systems, Rockwell provides the tools, software, and integration layers.

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✳️ Quick Stats (as of June 2025)

Metric	Value
Market Cap	~$32B
Dividend Yield	~1.6%
P/E Ratio	~28x
YoY Revenue Growth	~6%
Robotics/Automation %	>75% of revenue

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🆚 Why Not Others?

• Ametek (AME) and RBC Bearings (RBC) are great precision motion plays—but more passive in robotic development.

• NVIDIA is critical—but not a pure "pick and shovel" for robotics. It's broader AI and data center focused.

• ABB, Keyence, and Siemens are also excellent—but either not U.S.-based or less pure-play.

• Ouster (LiDAR) and Regal Rexnord (motors) are too narrow.

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✅ Final Word

If you're investing in the tools behind the robotics revolution, especially as it scales into humanoids like Tesla's Optimus, Rockwell Automation stands out as the most strategic, financially sound, and robotics-focused pick-and-shovel stock available today.

Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)

$321.80

+$107.21(+49.96%)Past 5 years

Here’s a detailed breakdown of Rockwell Automation (ROK), covering earnings projections and technical valuation insights:

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📈 5-Year Earnings & Growth Forecast

Period	Projected EPS Growth
Next 1 yr (to 2026)	From ~$7.97 today to ~$9.73 → ~22% increase
2026 Estimate	~$11.31 EPS
2027 Estimate	~$13.17 EPS
CAGR (2025–2028)	EPS +14.2% / revenue +6.2% annually
Long-term (to 2029)	Analysts forecast ~$14.11 EPS by FY 2029  Analyst Consensus: About 6‑11 analysts expect EPS between $9–10 for FY 2025 and rising steadily through 2027 .

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📊 Technical Analysis Snapshot

• Moving Averages:

  • On the daily scale, price is above 200‑day MA (~$277), 50‑day (~$283), and 20‑day (~$317), indicating a bullish trend 

  • Short‑term MAs also bullish in most models .

• Trend & Patterns:
  ChartMill gives a technical rating of 9/10, with both short- and long-term trends positive.
  A bull-flag pattern suggests a potential buy-on-breakout opportunity, with support around $318 and resistance near $325 

• Indicators:

  • RSI is neutral-to-strong — around mid‑range.

  • MACD recent crossover turns positive, supporting bullish momentum in daily models .

  • Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) upgraded RS rating to 83 (top quintile) but noted a slight pullback from a failed base entry near $308, implying a new base formation may be prudent 

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🔍 Long-Term Outlook & Valuation

• Earnings Growth Driver: Rockwell provides industrial automation solutions, benefiting from onshoring and the broader digitization of manufacturing. Barron’s highlights projected ~17% annual EPS growth through 2027 

• Tariff Tailwinds: Rockwell is cited as a key beneficiary of increased onshoring due to higher tariffs, making it a go-to industrial play in that trend .

• Valuation Summary:

  • Trading near $322, with a one-year average price target of $326 (range $290–371) by Wall Street 

  • Reasonable P/E based on ~$9–10 EPS, giving ~30×–35× forward P/E—typical for a high-quality industrial automation company.

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🧭 Bottom Line

• Earnings Trajectory: Robust growth expected — ~14–22% EPS CAGR over next 2–5 years.

• Technical Setup: Bullish trend with backup from multiple indicators and chart patterns, though a careful entry after base confirmation may yield better risk/reward.

• Macro-Catalysts: Onshoring, increased automation, and high-margin solutions support earnings and valuation.

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✅ Your Next Moves

• For long-term exposure: Buying on dips above $318–$320 with a multi-year view of automation trends—and holding for EPS growth and rising automation adoption.

• For tactical entries: Monitor a breakout above $325 on expanding volume—this would confirm bullish momentum and enable tighter, disciplined entries.

Here’s a refined model for a 12-month target price on Rockwell Automation (ROK):

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📊 1. Base Scenario: Conservative PE

• EPS Estimate for FY2026: ~$11.49 

• Modest Forward P/E: 26× (near its historical fair ratio of ~29×)

• Target Price: 11.49 × 26 ≈ $299

This projection is slightly below current levels, suggesting limited upside if the market is cautious.

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🔼 2. Growth Scenario: Elevated PE

• Same EPS: $11.49

• Premium P/E: 30× (reflecting continued automation enthusiasm)

• Target Price: 11.49 × 30 ≈ $345

This targets the upper range of analyst forecasts and assumes multiple expansion 

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🛠 3. Bull Case: Full Growth Re-Rating

• EPS for FY2027: ~$13.19 

• High-End P/E: 28× (middle ground between growth and valuation)

• Target Price: 13.19 × 28 ≈ $370

This aligns with the top analyst estimate ($371) .

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📌 Summary Table

Scenario	Assumed EPS	P/E Multiple	Target Price
Base	$11.49	26×	$299
Growth	$11.49	30×	$345
Bull (2027)	$13.19	28×	$370

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🔍 Interpretation

• Base Case (~$300): Reflects stable earnings and modest market sentiment.

• Growth Case (~$345): Possible if automation tailwinds continue and valuation stays robust.

• Bull Case (~$370): Requires strong execution, EPS delivery, and renewed investor enthusiasm.

Here's an aggressive way to enter the Agentic Ai stock race if you're seeking high reward that carries high risk!

 

here's a high-conviction Agentic AI stock watchlist for an aggressive portfolio, including ideal buy ranges, key catalysts, and what to watch for each company. This is geared toward catching breakouts or deep-value setups before broader institutional moves.

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🔧 AGENTIC AI CREATORS (BUILDERS)

1. C3.ai (Ticker: AI)

• Ideal Buy Range: $22 – $28

• Catalyst to Watch:

  • New generative AI enterprise product launches (esp. AI agents for defense/oil & gas)

  • Major U.S. government contract renewals or expansions

• Why it’s on the list: First-mover advantage in enterprise AI platforms; if execution improves, the upside is enormous.

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2. Symbotic (Ticker: SYM)

• Ideal Buy Range: $33 – $38

• Catalyst to Watch:

  • New mega-retailer partnerships (Amazon, Target, etc.)

  • Expansion into full-agentic warehouse orchestration

• Why it’s on the list: Already profitable and scaling; its tech uses autonomous decision-making across supply chains.

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3. Recursion Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: RXRX)

• Ideal Buy Range: $5.50 – $7.50

• Catalyst to Watch:

  • New AI-discovered drug candidates entering clinical trials

  • Further expansion of NVIDIA partnership

• Why it’s on the list: One of the few companies using AI agents to autonomously identify disease-drug interactions.

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🚀 AGENTIC AI BENEFICIARIES (ADOPTERS)

4. Tempus AI (Ticker: TEM)

• Ideal Buy Range: $30 – $36 (as a new IPO, use limit orders around pullbacks)

• Catalyst to Watch:

  • Major hospital system deals

  • Partnerships with genomic leaders (e.g. Illumina, Roche)

• Why it’s on the list: Early innings of precision medicine + AI agents = potentially massive future upside.

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5. Axon Enterprise (Ticker: AXON)

• Ideal Buy Range: $275 – $295

• Catalyst to Watch:

  • Release of AI-powered real-time monitoring or predictive tools

  • Federal/DoD AI safety tech contracts

• Why it’s on the list: Dominates public safety; building autonomous surveillance systems in-house.

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6. Samsara (Ticker: IOT)

• Ideal Buy Range: $30 – $34

• Catalyst to Watch:

  • Launch of AI co-pilots or agents for fleet automation

  • Expansion into non-logistics industries (e.g. construction, food supply)

• Why it’s on the list: Already uses agentic loops for logistics and safety — sticky B2B model with scale potential.

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📋 Summary: Watchlist Snapshot

Ticker	Name	Ideal Buy Range	Key Catalyst
AI	C3.ai	$22–$28	New enterprise AI agents/contracts
SYM	Symbotic	$33–$38	Expansion into new retail/logistics
RXRX	Recursion	$5.50–$7.50	Drug pipeline + Nvidia push
TEM	Tempus AI	$30–$36	Genomics/healthcare expansion
AXON	Axon	$275–$295	AI-enabled law enforcement tools
IOT	Samsara	$30–$34	AI co-pilot expansion to new verticals

Ed Note:

We own several of the stocks listed here with the rest on our watch list!

USA Presidential elections have a real impact on stock markets. So, How can one position oneself in the first year?

If we use the election cycle as a guide, especially for U.S. presidential elections, there are some historical patterns investors often pay attention to:

• Post-election years (like 2025) often bring policy shifts (stimulus, deregulation, defense spending, etc.) that affect certain sectors.

• The first year of a presidency often includes new government programs, spending packages, and regulatory changes—this can mean big moves for companies exposed to government contracts or regulation.

So, if we go by history and themes that often play well in post-election years, here are a few sectors and example companies to watch for potential gains in 2025:

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⚙️ 1. Defense & Aerospace

New administrations (regardless of party) often increase defense budgets or reallocate them. Global tensions also drive this.

• Lockheed Martin (LMT)

• Northrop Grumman (NOC)

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) – also benefits from defense + AI + government contracting.

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🏗️ 2. Infrastructure & Clean Energy

If a new or returning president pushes for infrastructure investment or green energy, watch for this boost.

• Caterpillar (CAT) – infrastructure and construction machinery.

• NextEra Energy (NEE) – strong in renewables.

• Quanta Services (PWR) – electric grid, renewables infrastructure.

• Tesla (TSLA) – if EV incentives ramp up again.

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🏥 3. Healthcare & Biotech

Healthcare reform efforts and FDA funding shifts can heavily impact drug and medtech companies.

• UnitedHealth Group (UNH) – strong during regulatory changes.

• Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) – if focus returns to obesity and diabetes solutions.

• 10X Genomics (TXG), Twist Bioscience (TWST) – if genomics and biotech innovation get funding support.

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🧠 4. Artificial Intelligence & Cybersecurity

Governments are investing in AI infrastructure and cybersecurity regardless of party lines.

• NVIDIA (NVDA) – chips powering AI.

• SentinelOne (S) or CrowdStrike (CRWD) – cyber defense.

• C3.ai (AI) – close to government contracts + enterprise AI.

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💻 5. Semiconductors & Reshoring

Both parties push for U.S. manufacturing and chip independence.

• Intel (INTC) – heavy government backing for fabs.

• AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) – tied to infrastructure and AI buildout.

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🏦 6. Financials

Rising interest rates and policy changes may impact banks and fintechs.

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – strong during rising rate environments.

• Charles Schwab (SCHW) – benefits from investor optimism and capital flows.

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🧱 Bonus: "Made in America" Manufacturing Push

If the next administration continues or accelerates reshoring, you might look at:

• Eaton (ETN) – power management.

• Generac (GNRC) – tied to grid resilience and climate-driven demand.

• Enphase Energy (ENPH) – if solar incentives return.

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if we go purely by the Presidential Election Cycle Theory, without regard to who's elected or what policies are implemented, the stock picks would shift slightly. Here's how it breaks down:

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🔄 Presidential Election Cycle Theory (based on 100 years of market data)

• Year 1 (Post-election, like 2025):

  • Historically the weakest year for markets, as new policies are introduced and uncertainty is high.

  • However, select sectors still do well, especially those tied to defensive industries and government spending.

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📈 Sectors That Have Historically Done Well in Year 1 (like 2025)

1. Defense & Aerospace

   • Government spending is rarely cut here, and often increases in a new administration.

   • 📌 Picks: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), Northrop Grumman (NOC)

2. Consumer Staples

   • Investors tend to get more defensive in Year 1, favoring essentials over risk.

   • 📌 Picks: Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP)

3. Utilities

   • Steady cash flow, dividends, and regulation-protected businesses tend to outperform early in a presidential cycle.

   • 📌 Picks: NextEra Energy (NEE), Duke Energy (DUK)

4. Healthcare

   • Historically does well early in the cycle due to defensive nature and consistent demand.

   • 📌 Picks: UnitedHealth Group (UNH), AbbVie (ABBV), Pfizer (PFE)

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🧠 Less Emphasis on Risk-On Plays (at least early in Year 1)

High-growth sectors like tech, small caps, and speculative AI or biotech often lag in Year 1 of a presidency, unless there's a clear macro tailwind or stimulus policy. So under the pure cycle method, you might de-emphasize:

• NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Tesla (TSLA)

• ARK-style innovation stocks

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⏳ When Would Those Growth Stocks Shine Again?

Historically, Year 3 of a presidential cycle (i.e., 2027) is the best year for markets — that’s when risk-on names historically shine again, thanks to:

• Stimulus before re-election campaigns

• Low volatility

• Business-friendly environments

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Summary of 2025 Sector Tilt (Based on 100-Year Cycle Alone):

Sector	Reason	Example Stocks
Defense	New spending priorities, safe in all climates	LMT, RTX, NOC
Consumer Staples	Defensive, reliable earnings	PG, KO, PEP
Utilities	High dividends, stable cash flow	NEE, DUK
Healthcare	Consistent demand, defensive	UNH, ABBV, PFE

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Let’s blend the Presidential Election Cycle theory with the reality of today’s innovation drivers: AI, quantum computing, and healthcare.

🧠 The Strategy:

• Use the Year 1 (2025) cycle pattern as the foundation (defensives and government-aligned picks).

• Overlay that with 2025’s megatrends — AI, quantum computing, and healthcare innovation.

• Choose balanced exposure: stability + growth + innovation, weighted accordingly.

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📊 Hypothetical 2025 Portfolio (Balanced & Thematic)

Category	Weight	Stock Picks	Rationale
Defense & Government AI	20%	Lockheed Martin (LMT) Palantir Technologies (PLTR)	Defense always gets funding in Year 1. PLTR has deep AI + Gov roots.
Consumer Staples	10%	Procter & Gamble (PG) PepsiCo (PEP)	Safe haven during economic/policy transitions.
Utilities (Green Tilt)	10%	NextEra Energy (NEE) Brookfield Renewable (BEP)	Stable dividends + clean energy upside.
Healthcare (Core)	20%	UnitedHealth (UNH) Eli Lilly (LLY)	Defensive and growth. LLY also has GLP-1 tailwind.
Healthcare (Innovative)	10%	10X Genomics (TXG) Twist Bioscience (TWST)	Genomics and synthetic biology play to long-term innovation.
AI Infrastructure (Stable)	10%	Microsoft (MSFT) NVIDIA (NVDA)	MSFT for enterprise AI/cloud, NVDA for infrastructure. Both resilient even in choppy years.
AI + Quantum Pure Plays	10%	C3.ai (AI) IonQ (IONQ)	Riskier growth, but aligned with megatrend of the decade.
Cash or Short-term Bonds	10%	BIL (Treasury ETF) or cash equivalent	Preserves dry powder for volatility and rotation into growth later in the cycle.

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🧩 Optional Tilt Ideas (if you want more flavor)

• Swap PEP for Costco (COST) if you want retail exposure.

• Add AbbVie (ABBV) if you want more dividend-friendly healthcare.

• Add Honeywell (HON) for a hybrid industrial + quantum exposure.

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🎯 Portfolio Themes Summary:

• Cycle-aware: Defensive posture in Year 1.

• Future-aware: Allocated to the sectors leading the next wave (AI, quantum, genomics).

• Balanced: Risk is spread across stability (utilities/staples), income (healthcare/defense), and innovation (AI/quantum/genomics).

Now let’s bolt on a “high-risk / high-reward” satellite portfolio that complements your core 2025 cycle-aware + future-tech portfolio.

🎯 Purpose of Satellite Portfolio:

• Capture explosive upside potential from early-stage or volatile innovators.

• Lean into speculative AI, quantum, biotech, and frontier tech bets.

• Accept that some may not perform in Year 1 of the cycle, but could 10x+ in later years.

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🚀 Speculative Satellite Portfolio (10-15% of Total Portfolio)

Stock / Ticker	Sector	Rationale
C3.ai (AI)	AI Enterprise	Early mover in AI platforms, volatile but visionary — Gov + private AI.
IonQ (IONQ)	Quantum Tech	One of the few pure-play quantum stocks, backed by AWS/Microsoft.
Recursion Pharma (RXRX)	AI + Drug Discovery	Backed by NVIDIA + using AI to map biology and accelerate pharma pipelines.
Annovis Bio (ANVS)	Alzheimer’s Biotech	Small-cap biotech chasing a huge unmet need — big swing on clinical data.
Symbotic (SYM)	Robotics/AI	AI-powered warehouse robotics, backed by Walmart and SoftBank.
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)	Biotech/Genomics	Access to early-stage genomics, CRISPR, and longevity companies.
BrainChip Holdings (BRCHF)	Neuromorphic AI	Super speculative — building chips modeled after the human brain.
Zapata AI (ZPTA)	Quantum-AI	Recent SPAC; combining generative AI with quantum optimization. Very high-risk.

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⚠️ Notes:

• These stocks/companies are more volatile and often not profitable.

• Some may be thinly traded or prone to sharp corrections on news.

• Meant to be a smaller piece (10-15%) of your total exposure — think moonshots.

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🔧 Allocation Suggestion (If you allocate 15%)

Ticker	Allocation %
AI	2%
IONQ	2%
RXRX	2%
ANVS	2%
SYM	2%
ARKG	2%
BRCHF	1.5%
ZPTA	1.5%

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ED Note:

This is not investment advice, nor am I an investment advisor. The foregoing is a report created wholly using "Deep Research" Ai using public information from 100 years of Presidential elections. It should be noted, however, that many of Wall Streets elite often refer to the "Election Cycle" metric.

Risk Level	Catalyst to Watch	Entry Price Target ($)	Stop-Loss Level ($)
High	New enterprise AI contracts, earnings growth	27.0	20.0
High	Government contracts, quantum computing adoption	10.0	7.0
High	Partnerships with pharma, AI platform development	7.0	5.0

Nvidia's interest and investment in Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) in 2025 could be a game changer for this small-cap!

 

 

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RXRX) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that integrates advanced technologies across biology, chemistry, automation, data science, and engineering to decode complex biological systems. Here's an updated overview of the company's financials, partnerships, technological advancements, product pipeline, and other pertinent information:

Financial Overview

• Cash Position: As of December 31, 2024, Recursion reported cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaling $603.0 million, up from $401.4 million on the same date in 2023. ​ir.recursion.com

• Revenue: The company achieved total revenue of $83 million for the fiscal year 2024, reflecting a strong financial performance. ​tipranks.com

• Research and Development Expenses: R&D expenses were $74.6 million for Q3 2024, up from $70.0 million in Q3 2023, indicating continued investment in platform expansion and upgrades. ​globenewswire.com

• Net Loss: The net loss for Q3 2024 was $95.8 million, compared to $93.0 million in Q3 2023, reflecting ongoing investments in research and development. ​globenewswire.com

Strategic Partnerships

• NVIDIA: In July 2023, NVIDIA invested $50 million in Recursion to accelerate the development of AI foundation models for biology and chemistry. This collaboration leverages Recursion's extensive proprietary dataset and NVIDIA's cloud services, including the DGX™ Cloud and BioNeMo platform, to enhance drug discovery capabilities. ​en.wikipedia.org

• Roche and Genentech: In December 2021, Recursion entered into a partnership with Roche and its subsidiary Genentech, potentially worth up to $12 billion, to advance therapies in neuroscience and other areas. ​en.wikipedia.org

• Bayer: The company has a strategic collaboration with Bayer focusing on oncology research, building upon a previous partnership targeting fibrotic diseases. ​en.wikipedia.org

• Exscientia Acquisition: In August 2024, Recursion acquired UK-based biotechnology company Exscientia for $688 million, adding a technology-enabled clinical pipeline and precision chemistry capabilities. ​globenewswire.com+1en.wikipedia.org+1

Technological Infrastructure

• Recursion OS: The company's proprietary operating system integrates wet-lab and dry-lab biology experiments, enabling the generation of massive datasets to map and navigate complex biological relationships. ​sec.gov

• BioHive-2 Supercomputer: In May 2024, Recursion completed BioHive-2, an NVIDIA-powered AI supercomputer comprising 63 DGX H100 systems with a total of 504 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs. Ranked #35 in the TOP500 list of the world's most powerful supercomputers, BioHive-2 significantly enhances Recursion's computational capabilities, facilitating more efficient training of large-scale AI models. ​

Product Pipeline and Clinical Developments

• REC-994: This experimental drug targets cerebral cavernous malformation (CCM), a rare brain-related condition. In a mid-stage study reported in September 2024, REC-994 demonstrated safety and tolerability. MRI-based data indicated that the highest dose reduced the number of lesions. However, improvements reported by patients or doctors were not observed at the end of the 12-month treatment period. Recursion plans to meet with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to discuss further clinical studies. ​Reuters

• Clinical Trial Outlook: Recursion anticipates seven clinical trial readouts over the next 18 months for its programs and approximately ten readouts collectively over the same period, including those from the Exscientia acquisition. ​globenewswire.com+1en.wikipedia.org+1

Intellectual Property

• Patent Portfolio: As of February 2025, Recursion holds a total of 149 patents globally, with 58 granted. Notably, over 78% of these patents remain active. The majority are filed in the United States, followed by Europe and Canada.​

Conclusion

Recursion Pharmaceuticals continues to leverage its robust financial position, strategic partnerships, and advanced technological infrastructure to pioneer AI-driven drug discovery and development. The company's expanding patent portfolio and active clinical pipeline underscore its commitment to transforming the pharmaceutical industry through innovative approaches to complex diseases.​

Nvidia-backed Recursion's shares fall on mixed data for rare disorder drug

Reuters

Nvidia-backed Recursion's shares fall on mixed data for rare disorder drug