"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stocks. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Do you have dry powder for the "Great Ai rotation"? 10 Stocks we like for the next 3 to 12 months!


                  Despite reports to the contrary, the Ai buildout continues to grow!

The Great AI Rotation Fall 2026

10 Stocks Positioned for the Next Phase of AI Infrastructure

September 1, 2026 — A RetireFund Working Investment Report

The next leg of AI spending is increasingly moving beyond GPUs and into the bottlenecks surrounding them—memory, optical connectivity, Ethernet/copper networking, custom silicon, power delivery, cooling and physical data-center systems.

That thesis remains intact despite today's weak tape. On September 1, the S&P 500 fell 0.71% and the Nasdaq 1.03% as long-term yields rose and oil prices jumped. That macro backdrop argues for staged entries rather than chasing rebounds, particularly because several of the best AI-infrastructure names have already undergone significant corrections.

My conclusion after updating the numbers is that COHR, CLS and MU remain the three stocks I would begin with, but the full 10-stock ranking contains several opportunities that may be almost as attractive—particularly MRVL and QCOM.


Executive ranking

RankCompanySept. 1 priceAI roleCurrent stanceAlpha score
1Coherent (COHR)$272.03Optical interconnect / photonicsBUY9.6/10
2Celestica (CLS)$296.24 USAI servers / switches / hardware platformsBUY9.5/10
3Micron (MU)$933.44HBM / DRAM / NANDBUY, staged9.3/10
4Marvell (MRVL)$210.40Custom silicon / networkingBUY9.1/10
5Qualcomm (QCOM)$166.61Edge AI + emerging data-center computeBUY8.9/10
6Vertiv (VRT)$255.97Power / coolingBUY on weakness8.6/10
7Broadcom (AVGO)$368.55Custom AI ASICs / networkingBUY after earnings clarity8.5/10
8Credo (CRDO)$206.63High-speed copper/optical connectivityStarter only8.2/10
9Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)$103.39Optical transceiversSpeculative BUY7.8/10
10Bloom Energy (BE)$213.63Behind-the-meter data-center powerWAIT / starter only7.5/10

Prices are September 1 U.S. closes where available. COHR closed at $272.03, MU at $933.44, MRVL at $210.40, QCOM at $166.61, VRT at $255.97, CRDO at $206.63, AAOI at $103.39 and BE at $213.63. CLS closed around $296.


1. Coherent — COHR

My #1 near-term AI-rotation idea

At $272.03, COHR is roughly 38% below its $440 52-week high. That alone doesn't make something inexpensive, but the underlying business has continued moving in the opposite direction.

Fiscal Q4 revenue reached $2.05 billion, while non-GAAP EPS was $1.74. More importantly, management guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $2.2–$2.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $1.85–$2.05.

That means the stock has experienced a major multiple reset while the company's operating trajectory remains positive.

The strategic attraction is optical connectivity. AI clusters require exponentially more bandwidth between accelerators, racks and data centers. As accelerator performance rises, connectivity becomes a limiting factor. That places optical transceivers, lasers, photonics and datacom components directly in the AI capital-spending stream.

My price map

COHRAction
$265–$280Buy first tranche
$245–$260Strong add
$225–$240Aggressive add if fundamentals intact
>$315Stop chasing; reassess

I would expect the first meaningful rerating to take COHR toward approximately $320–$340. A successful FY2027 ramp could eventually justify $375–$425+.

The risk is that optical components remain cyclical. If hyperscaler capex suddenly slows, COHR's multiple can contract rapidly.

12-month working range: $360–$425.


2. Celestica — CLS

Best combination of quality and growth

Celestica may be the strongest business in this group at today's price.

The company has raised 2026 revenue guidance to $20.5 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $11.30, representing expected year-over-year growth of approximately 65% and 87%, respectively. Management has also said it expects growth to accelerate again in 2027.

At approximately $296, that $11.30 EPS outlook implies a price-to-current-guidance ratio of roughly:

$296 ÷ $11.30 ≈ 26.2×

For a company producing that level of earnings growth, that is considerably more reasonable than the headline stock chart suggests.

CLS's 52-week range is roughly $183.66–$474.02, putting the shares almost 38% below the high.

My price map

CLS — NYSEAction
$285–$305Buy
$265–$280Strong add
$245–$260Exceptional opportunity if outlook unchanged
>$340Don't chase

For Canadians, the TSX listing is particularly useful. The investment thesis is the same; currency simply changes the quoted share price.

12-month working range: $375–$450.

I would not require CLS to revisit its previous $474 high for this investment to work very well.


3. Micron — MU

The most unusual dislocation of the group

This is where our hedge-fund discussion matters.

Micron was indeed one of the enormous positions held by Situational Awareness, the highly leveraged AI-focused fund that suffered a 67% July loss and was pressured to liquidate most of its roughly $16 billion public-equity portfolio. Citadel purchased much of that portfolio and subsequently disposed of more than 80% of its acquired risk. Reuters confirms the forced unwind.

More specifically, the fund's June filings showed Micron and SanDisk accounting for more than 56% of the portfolio. Micron subsequently fell roughly 24% in July.

So this is one situation where we can reasonably say:

At least part of the selloff was related to portfolio mechanics and leverage rather than Micron's operating performance.

Micron's latest reported quarter was extraordinary: revenue of $41.46 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 and operating cash flow of $25.39 billion.

MU closed September 1 at $933.44, down 2.64% for the day.

My price map

MUAction
$900–$950First tranche
$850–$890Strong add
$800–$840Aggressive add
>$1,025Wait for consolidation

I would not buy a full MU position at once because memory is notoriously cyclical and expectations have risen enormously.

Nevertheless, this may be the stock with the best chance of a violent rebound if investors conclude the July forced-selling episode has completely cleared.

12-month working range: $1,150–$1,350, with materially greater upside possible if HBM pricing remains unusually strong.


A correction to our earlier hedge-fund discussion

After checking the primary/current reporting more carefully, I would refine what I told you earlier.

There is strong evidence for forced selling affecting MU, and there is evidence that Bloom Energy was also a major Situational Awareness holding. The fund's other disclosed major holdings included SanDisk, Taiwan Semiconductor and Nebius.

I do not have equivalent evidence tying COHR or CLS directly to that forced liquidation.

So I would no longer characterize their corrections as proven consequences of the Situational Awareness unwind.

That distinction matters.


4. Marvell — MRVL

The stock that almost breaks into the top three

MRVL is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

It reported record fiscal Q2 2027 revenue of $2.739 billion, up 37% year over year, while data-center revenue growth accelerated to 46%. Management said AI-related bookings remain exceptionally strong and expects growth to accelerate through the remainder of fiscal 2027.

Yet the shares suffered a severe post-earnings correction.

MRVL closed at $241.45 on August 27, fell more than 10% on August 28, and finished September 1 at $210.40.

That is exactly the type of earnings-related dislocation I look for.

Entry strategy

$200–$215 is attractive.

Below $195, I would become significantly more aggressive provided no customer-loss information emerges.

MRVL is particularly interesting because it touches both sides of the AI infrastructure equation:

custom accelerators and high-speed connectivity.

12-month working range: $270–$325.

If you asked me which stock could displace MU from the top three, MRVL would be the one.


5. Qualcomm — QCOM

The sleeper

QCOM closed September 1 at only $166.61.

That valuation reflects the market's continuing tendency to treat Qualcomm primarily as a smartphone-chip company.

But Qualcomm is increasingly positioning itself across:

edge AI,
automotive,
robotics,
industrial systems,
PC computing,
and now data-center AI.

Its investor materials explicitly highlight a comprehensive data-center roadmap, while the company continues expanding its AI/high-performance-compute positioning.

This is therefore the stock in the ten where the AI optionality is least fully priced in.

That doesn't make QCOM the stock most likely to surge tomorrow. It makes it one of the best asymmetric opportunities if the market begins assigning value to its data-center effort.

My entry range

$160–$170: Buy.

$150–$158: Strong buy.

Below $150 without a fundamental deterioration would be especially attractive.

12-month working range: $205–$235.

For a multi-year Physical-AI portfolio, I would actually rank QCOM above several stocks that rank higher here on short-term momentum.


6. Vertiv — VRT

The picks-and-shovels power winner

AI accelerators are useless without power conversion, thermal management and cooling.

Vertiv sits almost perfectly in this bottleneck.

Q2 was strong enough for management to raise full-year guidance. It now expects approximately $14 billion in 2026 sales, around 31% organic growth, and adjusted EPS of approximately $6.65–$6.75, roughly 60% above 2025 at the midpoint.

At $255.97, however, that implies roughly:

$255.97 ÷ $6.70 ≈ 38× adjusted 2026 EPS.

That is why VRT ranks #6 rather than #2.

The company is excellent.

The valuation is still demanding.

Shares have nevertheless fallen about 20% over the preceding three months.

Entry range

$240–$255: acceptable starter.

$220–$235: very attractive.

Below $215: strong buy, assuming guidance holds.

12-month working range: $310–$350.


7. Broadcom — AVGO

Possibly the best AI company here—but not necessarily the best entry today

Broadcom's fundamentals are astonishing.

Fiscal Q2 AI semiconductor revenue reached $10.8 billion, increasing 143% year over year, driven by custom AI accelerators and networking.

That is precisely where the AI capex cycle is going.

But AVGO reports September 2, meaning buying aggressively tonight would effectively be making an earnings-event bet. Broadcom closed September 1 around $368.55 and remains well below its $495 52-week high.

I therefore prefer:

wait for tomorrow's earnings reaction.

A good report followed by a sell-the-news decline could give us a much better entry.

12-month working range: $440–$500, subject to tomorrow's numbers.


8. Credo — CRDO

Tremendous growth, dangerous expectations

Credo is one of the purest AI-connectivity companies available publicly.

Its just-reported fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479 million, up 114.7% year over year, while non-GAAP net income increased approximately 140%.

Yet CRDO fell 8.65% today, closing at $206.63, after already declining sharply from the $280 area in mid-August.

This is interesting—but different from CLS.

CRDO carries much more valuation risk because the market already recognizes the growth story.

Entry range

$195–$210: starter.

$175–$190: meaningful buy.

Below $170: potentially very attractive.

I would not build the entire position today.

12-month working range: $260–$310.


9. Applied Optoelectronics — AAOI

High-risk optical torque

AAOI is the smallest and most speculative optical-networking idea on this list.

The shares closed September 1 at $103.39, down about 4%, versus a 52-week range of roughly $18.50–$233.67.

That enormous range tells you almost everything you need to know about the risk.

If AI optical transceiver demand remains strong and AAOI executes manufacturing expansion correctly, the upside can be enormous.

But this is not COHR.

The balance sheet, customer concentration, margins and execution risk justify a substantially smaller position.

Entry range

$95–$105: speculative starter.

$80–$90: attractive speculation.

I would limit AAOI to perhaps 3–5% of an AI infrastructure basket.

12-month working range: $140–$180, but with unusually wide error bars.


10. Bloom Energy — BE

Fantastic theme; difficult stock price

Bloom's underlying growth is extraordinary.

Q2 revenue reached $1.065 billion, increasing 166% year over year, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $3.9–$4.2 billion, approximately 100% growth at the midpoint.

And there is a forced-selling angle here too: Bloom was among Situational Awareness's significant holdings and dropped roughly 31% during the July AI unwind.

BE subsequently recovered and closed September 1 at $213.63.

So why only #10?

Because the valuation now assumes a tremendous amount of future success.

The business opportunity may be one of the largest in the entire portfolio, but price discipline is essential.

Entry range

$180–$195: interesting.

$160–$175: buy.

Below $155: strong speculative buy.

At $213+, I would wait.


The portfolio I am planning to construct

If the objective is maximum reasonable alpha rather than simply owning all ten equally, I would not use a 10%/10%/10% structure.

For a hypothetical CAD $100,000 AI-infrastructure portfolio, mine would look approximately like this:

CompanyWeightCAD amountRole
COHR17%$17,000Optical connectivity
CLS17%$17,000AI hardware infrastructure
MU14%$14,000Memory/HBM
MRVL12%$12,000ASIC/network silicon
QCOM11%$11,000AI optionality / Physical AI
VRT9%$9,000Power/cooling
AVGO8%$8,000Custom compute/networking
CRDO5%$5,000High-speed connectivity
AAOI3%$3,000High-beta optical
BE4%$4,000Distributed power

That puts 71% of the portfolio in my top five.

I prefer that concentration because the purpose of this portfolio isn't index-like diversification. It is targeted participation in the physical infrastructure bottlenecks created by AI.


But I would not invest the $100,000 today

This is perhaps the most important part of the report.

With Treasury yields rising, equities weak on September 1, and September historically prone to volatility, I would deploy approximately:

Stage 1 — Now: 40%

Establish COHR, CLS, MU, MRVL and QCOM.

Small VRT/CRDO positions are a maybe.

Stage 2 — Another 5–8% sector correction: 30%

Add primarily to whichever of COHR / CLS / MRVL / QCOM falls without a corresponding earnings deterioration.

Stage 3 — Capitulation or catalyst confirmation: 30%

Use this after either:

a genuine September washout,

or evidence that the AI-infrastructure group has established a higher low and resumed leadership.

This avoids the two mistakes investors commonly make during a correction:

waiting forever for the absolute bottom, or

spending all available cash during the first decline.


The three I am looking to buy by next week

If you wanted to keep this exceptionally simple and buy only three

🥇 COHR

Best rebound setup

$272 is already deep in my preferred first-entry zone.

Its business is growing while its stock has fallen roughly 38% from the high. The connectivity bottleneck is real, and management's FY2027 opening-quarter guidance remains strong.

🥈 CLS

Best business-quality setup

At approximately 26× management's $11.30 EPS guidance, with projected EPS growth approaching 90%, I think the risk/reward is exceptional if Celestica executes.

🥉 MU

Best forced-liquidation/recovery setup

The hedge-fund liquidation is real—not merely speculation—and MU's financial performance is dramatically stronger than its July price action suggested.


Investing a moderate $25,000 as an example

Given today's prices, and although MRVL has become much more attractive after its post-earnings drop.

I like this allocation as entry positions:

PositionUltimate allocationInitial purchase now
COHR$10,000$5,000
CLS$8,750$4,500
MU$6,250$2,500
Cash held back$13,000

So I would put about $12,000 to work now and retain roughly $13,000.

If September gives us another 7–10% AI-infrastructure flush, that cash becomes extremely valuable.

And if the market simply turns higher?

A retail investor would already own meaningful starter positions.


Which one is most likely to “pop” first?

My ranking over the next 30–90 days is slightly different from my long-term ranking:

RankStockWhy
1MUForced-selling overhang + enormous HBM earnings + potential technical snapback
2COHRLarge drawdown + optical-networking rerating
3MRVLFresh post-earnings dislocation
4CLSFundamentals increasingly difficult for market to ignore (Canadian gem)
5CRDOHighest beta if connectivity trade resumes

Over 12–24 months, however, I would put CLS and COHR ahead of MU because their growth is less dependent on memory-cycle economics.


What could invalidate this entire thesis?

There are five things that would negatively impact this scenario!

  1. Hyperscaler capex cuts. If Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, Oracle or xAI start materially reducing AI infrastructure budgets, almost everything in this portfolio gets hit. (moderate risk)
  2. Long-duration rates. Today's bond-market selloff matters. Higher yields compress the multiples investors will pay for fast-growth technology. (watch this)
  3. Networking oversupply. A sudden inventory build would hit COHR, CRDO and AAOI disproportionately.(Minimal risk)
  4. Memory pricing reversal. MU's earnings are spectacular precisely because memory economics have become spectacular. That cuts both ways.(Moderate)
  5. AI architecture becoming materially less infrastructure-intensive. This is the existential risk to the entire “trillions of dollars of physical AI infrastructure” thesis.(Moderate risk)

None of those is my base case today.


My September hierarchy

Starter positions by next week

COHR — CLS — MU — MRVL — QCOM

Buy on weakness

Riskier at present

CRDO — AAOI

Wait for a better price

BE

And the most important conclusion from this exercise is that we do not need NVIDIA to keep winning at the same rate for this portfolio to work.

In fact, its strongest scenario may be one in which AI spending keeps climbing but the economic value begins migrating away from the GPU itself toward...

memory, optics, networking, custom silicon, electrical infrastructure and cooling.

COHR, CLS, MU and MRVL now give us four particularly compelling ways to own it at materially reset prices.

I am treating $265–280 COHR, $285–305 CLS and $900–950 MU as actionable first-entry zones right now, while keeping roughly half the intended capital available for September volatility.


Saturday, July 18, 2026

Physical Ai is the next wave. Five investments we own or are buying this summer.

 




The Next Industrial Revolution - Physical Ai!

A Five-Position Portfolio Designed for Long-Term Growth

Executive Summary

Artificial Intelligence is entering a new phase.

The first wave of AI focused on software—large language models, chatbots, and cloud computing. The second wave centered on building the infrastructure that powers AI, benefiting companies such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron, and TSMC.

Today, a third wave is emerging: Physical AI.

Physical AI refers to intelligent machines that perceive, think, and act in the real world. It includes industrial robots, autonomous drones, self-operating vehicles, robotic warehouses, underwater autonomous systems, and AI-powered factories.

Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, has repeatedly identified Physical AI as one of the next major growth markets in technology. As labour shortages, geopolitical tensions, industrial reshoring, and automation accelerate worldwide, demand for intelligent machines is expected to expand dramatically over the coming decade.

For Canadian retail investors, the challenge is deciding how to invest in this trend without becoming overly concentrated in a handful of expensive technology stocks.

This report presents a diversified five-position portfolio designed specifically for a Canadian investor seeking long-term capital appreciation while maintaining exposure to multiple segments of the Physical AI ecosystem.


Why Physical AI Matters

Unlike traditional software AI, Physical AI requires an entire ecosystem working together.

Every autonomous machine requires:

  • Artificial intelligence processors
  • Advanced robotics
  • Secure communications
  • Industrial networking
  • Sensors
  • Navigation systems
  • Software
  • Mission-critical infrastructure

Rather than betting on one robot manufacturer or one AI company, investors can build exposure across the technologies that enable the entire industry.


The Portfolio

InvestmentSuggested WeightRole
Qualcomm (NASDAQ/TSX: QCOM)30%AI processing and Edge AI
Kraken Robotics (TSX: PNG)25%Autonomous marine systems
Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Index ETF (TSX: RBOT)20%Diversified global robotics
Volatus Aerospace (TSX: FLT)15%Autonomous aerial systems
Nokia (NYSE: NOK)10%Industrial communications and networking

This portfolio provides exposure to five complementary components of the Physical AI revolution.


Qualcomm – The Brain (30%)

Every intelligent machine requires computing power.

Qualcomm has evolved far beyond smartphone processors and is becoming one of the world's leaders in Edge AI—artificial intelligence that operates directly inside machines rather than relying on cloud-based data centres.

Its technologies increasingly power:

  • Autonomous vehicles
  • Industrial robots
  • Smart factories
  • AI-enabled PCs
  • IoT devices
  • Commercial drones
  • Advanced automation systems

Edge AI reduces latency, improves security, lowers energy consumption, and enables machines to make decisions in real time.

Why Canadian investors should like it

Qualcomm combines strong cash flow, consistent profitability, a solid dividend, and exposure to multiple AI growth markets. It provides a stable foundation while still participating in one of the fastest-growing technology trends.


Kraken Robotics – The Oceans (25%)

Canada has quietly produced one of the world's most innovative marine technology companies.

Kraken Robotics develops advanced:

  • Autonomous underwater vehicles
  • Synthetic aperture sonar
  • Underwater imaging
  • Naval intelligence systems
  • Offshore inspection technologies

Its recent acquisition of Sonardyne significantly expanded its global footprint, technology portfolio, and customer relationships.

As NATO nations modernize their naval capabilities and offshore energy infrastructure expands, demand for autonomous underwater systems is expected to increase.

Why Canadian investors should like it

Kraken represents a uniquely Canadian opportunity to participate in a global defence and marine robotics market with long-term structural tailwinds.


RBOT ETF – The Body (20%)

The RBOT ETF provides diversified exposure to many of the world's leading automation companies.

The ETF includes businesses involved in:

  • Industrial robotics
  • Warehouse automation
  • Factory automation
  • Medical robotics
  • Motion control
  • Machine vision

For Canadian investors, RBOT offers two important advantages:

  • It trades on the TSX in Canadian dollars.
  • It provides broad diversification across the robotics industry.

Instead of trying to predict which robot manufacturer will ultimately dominate, investors gain exposure to the entire sector.


Volatus Aerospace – The Sky (15%)

Canada is becoming an increasingly important player in autonomous aviation.

Volatus Aerospace develops and operates advanced drone technologies serving both commercial and government markets.

Its opportunities include:

  • Defence and military surveillance
  • Border security
  • Infrastructure inspection
  • Utility monitoring
  • Emergency response
  • Cargo delivery
  • Arctic operations

The company's expanding manufacturing capabilities and relationships with government agencies position it to benefit from increasing investment in autonomous aerial systems.

Why Canadian investors should like it

Volatus offers exposure to one of the highest-growth segments of Physical AI while remaining a Canadian-listed company with significant long-term upside potential.


Nokia – The Nervous System (10%)

Autonomous machines cannot function without reliable communications.

Nokia has transformed itself into an industrial networking company focused on:

  • Private 5G networks
  • Enterprise wireless
  • Edge networking
  • Industrial automation
  • Quantum-safe cybersecurity
  • Future 6G technologies

Factories, ports, airports, mines, and utilities increasingly require secure, ultra-low-latency communications to support fleets of autonomous machines.

Why Canadian investors should like it

Nokia provides exposure to a critical enabling technology that is often overlooked by investors focused solely on robotics or semiconductors.


Why These Five Work Together

Many technology portfolios suffer from significant overlap.

This portfolio intentionally avoids that problem.

Each investment occupies a unique position within the Physical AI ecosystem.

FunctionInvestment
IntelligenceQualcomm
RoboticsRBOT
Marine AutonomyKraken Robotics
Aerial AutonomyVolatus Aerospace
CommunicationsNokia

Rather than owning five companies competing against each other, investors own five companies enabling one another.


Why This Portfolio Is Well Suited to Canadian Retail Investors

Canadian investors often face unique challenges:

  • Limited access to many emerging technology companies.
  • Currency conversion costs when investing in U.S. markets.
  • The need to balance growth with diversification.
  • Tax efficiency within registered accounts such as TFSAs and RRSPs.

This portfolio addresses those issues by combining:

  • Two Canadian-listed growth companies.
  • One Canadian-listed ETF.
  • Two established global technology leaders.

It provides exposure to both Canadian innovation and international market leadership while remaining simple enough for most self-directed investors to manage.


Potential Growth Catalysts (2026–2030)

Several long-term trends could support this portfolio over the next five years:

  • Widespread adoption of AI-powered industrial robots.
  • Expansion of autonomous drones in commercial and defence applications.
  • Increased NATO defence spending.
  • Growth in autonomous underwater surveillance.
  • Accelerating adoption of private 5G networks.
  • Expansion of Edge AI into manufacturing, healthcare, logistics, and transportation.
  • Labour shortages driving automation investment.
  • Industrial reshoring across North America and Europe.

These trends are complementary rather than independent, creating multiple avenues for growth.


Principal Risks

No investment strategy is without risk.

Investors should consider:

  • Market volatility affecting technology stocks.
  • Slower-than-expected adoption of robotics.
  • Execution risk for smaller companies such as Kraken Robotics and Volatus Aerospace.
  • Government procurement delays in defence markets.
  • Currency fluctuations for Canadian investors holding U.S.-listed securities.

Diversification across five complementary businesses helps reduce dependence on any one company or technology.

Ed Note: We now own two of these stocks and will be adding the ETF and others over the summer!


Final Thoughts

Many investors view Artificial Intelligence solely through the lens of software.

History suggests that the companies enabling technological revolutions often become just as valuable as those creating the applications.

Physical AI represents the convergence of robotics, autonomous systems, advanced communications, and intelligent computing.

This portfolio is designed to capture that convergence.

For Canadian retail investors seeking long-term growth, it offers exposure to five distinct yet complementary businesses that participate in one of the most significant technological transformations of the coming decade.

No one can predict which individual robot, drone, or autonomous platform will ultimately dominate the market. However, by investing across the foundational technologies that make Physical AI possible, investors can participate in the industry's growth while reducing the risk associated with betting on a single winner.

As always, investors should ensure that any portfolio aligns with their own financial objectives, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon. For those with a multi-year outlook, Physical AI may prove to be one of the defining investment opportunities of the 2020s.

 


Friday, July 17, 2026

IBM had a brutal week in markets dropping 25% in one week. Q: is this a good entry point?

 


The selloff in IBM this week was extraordinary.

  • Peak-to-trough, IBM lost roughly 25% of its market value in just a few trading sessions, erasing approximately US$67 billion in market capitalization. It was one of the largest one-day declines in the company's modern history.

The question for investors is whether this is:

  1. a temporary overreaction, or
  2. evidence that IBM's long-term investment thesis has changed.

My assessment: the long-term thesis is bruised, not broken

I think the market has correctly repriced IBM's near-term earnings power, but it has not destroyed IBM's strategic assets.

Let's separate IBM into its major businesses.

BusinessOutlook
Hybrid Cloud (Red Hat)Still very strong
ConsultingCyclical, currently under pressure
Software (watsonx, automation, security)Good long-term prospects but execution disappointed
Mainframe/InfrastructureMature business, more cyclical than investors expected
Quantum ComputingStill among the world's leaders

Quantum changes the equation


This is the part many investors ignore.

IBM is not merely experimenting with quantum computing.

It possesses:

  • arguably the world's largest quantum software ecosystem (Qiskit)
  • thousands of researchers
  • extensive government relationships
  • years of error-correction research
  • the most mature enterprise quantum platform
  • an enormous installed enterprise customer base

Unlike many quantum companies, IBM already has:

  • revenue
  • cash flow
  • global customers
  • decades of engineering talent

No one else combines all of those advantages.


The bear case

The market is worried that AI is changing enterprise spending faster than IBM can adapt.

Several concerns have emerged:

  • software sales slowed
  • consulting bookings weakened
  • some enterprise AI spending appears to be flowing toward hyperscalers and newer AI-native vendors
  • management admitted execution issues, leading to a rare pre-earnings warning.

Those are legitimate concerns.


The bull case

If I look out 5-10 years, IBM still owns several extremely valuable assets:

1. Quantum leadership

IBM remains one of perhaps three companies most likely to build commercially useful fault-tolerant quantum computers.

I'd currently rank them approximately:

  1. IBM
  2. Alphabet (Google Quantum AI)
  3. IonQ

Others may eventually catch up, but IBM remains in the first tier.


2. AI plus quantum

IBM doesn't need to "win AI."

It needs AI to become another enterprise workload running on IBM infrastructure.

Its strategy is:

  • hybrid cloud
  • enterprise AI
  • quantum
  • consulting

Those reinforce one another.


3. Red Hat

I continue to believe Red Hat was one of the best acquisitions made by any large technology company during the last decade.

It gives IBM credibility inside virtually every Fortune 500 IT department.


Is this a good entry point?

I would answer:

Yes—but not all at once and tread softly.

This is exactly the type of situation where institutional investors typically scale into positions rather than trying to call the bottom.

If I wanted a full position today, I'd consider something like:

  • Buy 40% now
  • Buy another 30% if the stock falls another 8–10%
  • Buy the final 30% after the next earnings report if management demonstrates stabilization.

That approach accepts that the market may remain volatile while reducing the risk of buying everything before further negative news.


Would I buy IBM over the next year?

Compared with many large-cap technology companies:

Company12-month attractiveness
NVIDIA9.5/10
Qualcomm9.2/10
Marvell Technology9.0/10
IBM8.8/10 after this selloff
Microsoft8.7/10

IBM has become more attractive because its valuation has compressed substantially, whereas much of the AI sector still trades at demanding multiples.

My conclusion

If I knew nothing about an investor, I'd say IBM is now a reasonable long-term accumulation candidate, particularly for those seeking a combination of cash flow, AI exposure, hybrid cloud, and quantum computing.

A small starter position might be in order.

Discl: at this time we don't own stock in IBM



Saturday, June 20, 2026

Are you considering precious metals for your TFSA or retirement portfolio?

 

The Precious Metals Reset

Why the Pullback in Silver, Gold and Mining Stocks May Be Creating One of the Best Buying Opportunities of 2026

Executive Summary

Since the early-May highs, both precious metals and mining equities have experienced a significant correction.

Silver has retreated sharply from its peak.

Gold has pulled back from record levels.

Silver miners and gold miners have fallen even more than the underlying metals.

To many investors, this appears bearish.

For long-term investors, (including us) it represents:

A rare opportunity to accumulate strategic assets while the long-term thesis remains intact.

The critical observation is this:

The prices have corrected. The fundamentals largely have not.

In fact, many of the drivers supporting both gold and silver today appear stronger than they were a year ago:

  • Persistent silver supply deficits
  • AI and electrification demand growth
  • Continued central-bank gold buying
  • Geopolitical uncertainty
  • Sovereign debt concerns
  • Currency diversification away from the U.S. dollar
  • Physical metal accumulation by investors and institutions

The result is a compelling setup for investors willing to look beyond the next quarter.


Why Precious Metals Matter More Than Ever

Historically investors separated precious metals into two camps:

Gold = Monetary Metal

Silver = Industrial Metal

Today that distinction is increasingly blurred.

Both metals are becoming strategic assets.

Gold is regaining importance as:

  • a reserve asset
  • a geopolitical hedge
  • a currency diversification tool
  • an inflation hedge

Silver is becoming increasingly critical to:

  • AI infrastructure
  • robotics
  • semiconductors
  • electrical grids
  • EVs
  • aerospace
  • defense technologies

Together, gold and silver now form what may be the world's most important 

hard-asset combination.


Gold: The World's Ultimate Reserve Asset

Gold's investment case has strengthened significantly over the last several years.

Central banks continue to accumulate gold despite record prices.

The World Gold Council reported estimated central-bank purchases of 244 tonnes during Q1 2026, exceeding both the previous quarter and the five-year average.

A recent survey found that a record 45% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year.

This matters because central banks represent:

The smartest long-term buyers in the world.

They are not trading.

They are allocating reserves.

Their continued purchases suggest that gold's strategic importance is increasing rather than declining.


Silver: The Technology Metal

Silver may be even more interesting.

Unlike gold, silver has two major demand drivers.

Monetary Demand

  • Wealth preservation
  • Inflation protection
  • Safe-haven buying

Industrial Demand

  • AI infrastructure
  • Robotics
  • Solar energy
  • Electric vehicles
  • Advanced electronics
  • Defense systems

Silver possesses the highest electrical conductivity of any metal.

As AI and electrification expand globally, silver demand continues to benefit from secular growth trends.


The Silver Supply Crisis Remains

This is arguably the strongest part of the silver thesis.

According to the Silver Institute and World Silver Survey 2026, the market is expected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit

Above-ground inventories continue to be drawn down to satisfy demand.

This is important because:

Most silver is not mined for silver.

It is produced as a by-product of:

  • copper mines
  • zinc mines
  • lead mines
  • gold mines

Therefore:

Higher silver prices do not automatically solve the shortage.

This structural issue remains one of the strongest long-term bullish arguments for silver.


Why the Pullback May Be a Gift

The correction since May appears driven largely by:

  • higher bond yields
  • delayed rate-cut expectations
  • stronger U.S. dollar
  • profit taking
  • reduced geopolitical fear

These are cyclical factors.

The long-term drivers are structural.

Historically, some of the best precious-metals investments have been made when:

Prices fall

while

Fundamentals remain strong

That may be the situation today.


Here are Four silver plays we either own or have placed on our watch list!

Sprott Physical Silver Trust

The Silver Foundation

PSLV represents direct ownership of physical silver.

No mining risk.

No cost overruns.

No political issues.

Simply exposure to a strategic metal experiencing persistent deficits.

Why It Matters

If silver ultimately benefits from:

  • AI infrastructure
  • electrification
  • robotics
  • supply shortages

PSLV may become the purest way to participate.


First Majestic Silver Corp.

The High-Torque Silver Vehicle

AG is one of the most recognized silver miners globally.

When silver prices rise, profitability can expand dramatically.

This operational leverage often causes silver miners to outperform the metal itself during bull markets.

Why It Matters

If silver enters a true scarcity-driven bull market:

AG may become one of the largest beneficiaries.


Endeavour Silver Corp.

Growth Plus Silver Leverage

EDR adds something AG does not:

Production growth.

Its Terronera project provides company-specific growth potential in addition to silver exposure.

This creates two possible drivers:

  • higher silver prices
  • increased production

Why It Matters

Few silver miners offer both growth and leverage simultaneously.


XGD

The Gold Allocation

This is where gold enters the story.

XGD owns many of the world's major gold producers.

These companies benefit from:

  • higher gold prices
  • strong margins
  • central-bank demand
  • global reserve diversification

Unlike silver miners, gold producers generally provide:

  • greater stability
  • lower volatility
  • stronger institutional ownership

Why It Matters

Gold remains the world's preferred hard-money asset.

The current correction may be providing investors an opportunity to buy world-class gold producers at more attractive valuations than were available earlier in the year.


Why Gold and Silver Belong Together

Many investors choose one or the other.

Historically, the strongest precious-metals portfolios often own both.

Gold and silver provide different exposures:

AssetPrimary Driver
GoldMonetary demand
SilverIndustrial + monetary demand
Gold MinersGold price leverage
Silver MinersSilver price leverage

Together they create diversification within the precious-metals sector itself.


My Preferred TFSA Allocation Today

For an investor focused on:

  • AI infrastructure
  • silver shortages
  • hard assets
  • tax-free compounding
  • controlled volatility

I would currently favor:

HoldingWeight
PSLV25%
AG25%
EDR20%
XGD30%

Why I Increased XGD

In the earlier report, the emphasis was heavily silver-focused.

Today I believe gold deserves a larger allocation because:

Gold is being accumulated by central banks.

Gold demand remains historically strong.

Gold miners have corrected alongside silver miners.

Gold provides downside protection if economic growth slows.

Meanwhile silver retains its higher upside potential.

This creates a more balanced precious-metals strategy.


The Bull Case Through 2030

If the following continue:

AI Buildout

Robotics Expansion

Grid Electrification

Defense Spending Growth

Central-Bank Gold Accumulation

Ongoing Silver Deficits

Then both gold and silver may remain in secular bull markets.

Several major institutions continue to forecast substantially higher gold prices over the next several years, supported by central-bank buying and reserve diversification.

Meanwhile the silver market continues to face structural shortages and inventory drawdowns.


Bottom Line

The correction since May has likely scared out short-term traders.

But for long-term investors, it may have created something more valuable:

A chance to accumulate both monetary metals and strategic technology metals at lower prices.

Gold is increasingly becoming the world's preferred reserve asset.

Silver is increasingly becoming the world's preferred electrification asset.

And the combination of:

  • PSLV (physical silver)
  • AG (silver torque)
  • EDR (silver growth)
  • XGD (gold stability)

creates a portfolio that is positioned to benefit from both of the defining themes of the next decade:

Hard-money demand

and

Technology-driven resource scarcity.

That is a combination few sectors can currently offer.

Ed Note:  XGD provides a good place to begin our entry point this week


The case for owning silver stocks/ETFs at a time of severe shortages in this precious/technology metal