"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stocks. Show all posts

Saturday, September 20, 2025

"Infleqtion Quantum" The SPAC is back, and, I believe this one could be quite lucrative as this pioneer of Quantum Sensing Technology goes public!!

 


Here’s a retail-friendly investment/business snapshot of Infleqtion 

(going public via Churchill Capital Corp X – “CCCX”)

plus a quick peer check vs IONQ, D-Wave (QBTS), and Rigetti (RGTI).

Churchill Capital Corp X (CCCX)
$12.17
+$0.82(+7.29%)September 19

Infleqtion (ticker to be: INFQ after merger) — Retail Cheat Sheet

What Infleqtion is

Neutral-atom “full-stack” quantum company that sells precision sensors (clocks, RF, inertial/GPS-denied nav) and quantum computing systems, with software to tie it together. The SPAC deal values Infleqtion at ~$1.8B pre-money and aims to list as INFQ after closing. Reuters+1

Why now (deal basics & cash)

  • Transaction: Infleqtion to merge with CCCX; post-close ticker expected: INFQ (Nasdaq). Shareholder vote + SEC clearance required. SEC

  • Proceeds: “> $540M expected gross proceeds” (includes ~$416M trust, >$125M PIPE). Actual cash depends on redemptions. PIPE backers cited include Maverick Capital and Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global (plus others). Yahoo Finance+2The Quantum Insider+2

  • Use of funds: accelerate product roadmap, manufacturing scale-up, and go-to-market. The Quantum Insider

Commercial traction (what’s real today)

  • Revenue (TTM to Jun 30, 2025): ~$29M; 2025E booked & awarded business ~ $50M; identified pipeline > $300M (company figures; prelim/unaudited). Quantum Computing Report+1

  • Customers/partners called out: NASA, U.S. DoD, U.K. government, and NVIDIA among others. Nasdaq+1

  • Tech milestones (company-stated): neutral-atom platform with record qubit arrays, high two-qubit fidelities, early logical-qubit demos; sensors already shipped in volume (hundreds). The Quantum Insider

Institutional & transaction parties (high level)

  • PIPE investors (named in press/PR): Maverick Capital, Counterpoint Global (Morgan Stanley), plus Glynn Capital, BOKA Capital, LCP Quantum (per deal comms). The Quantum Insider

  • Advisors: Citi (capital markets advisor/PIPE placement), J.P. Morgan (advisor/PIPE), BTIG; multiple law firms. The Quantum Insider


How Infleqtion stacks up vs public quantum peers

CompanyCore tech & focusWhere $ comes from nowRecent scale markers
Infleqtion (INFQ, post-deal)Neutral atoms; sensing (clocks/RF/inertial) + computingGovernment/defense + enterprise; sells hardware & systems; softwareTTM rev ~$29M; booked/awarded ~$50M 2025E (company est.) Quantum Computing Report+1
IonQ (IONQ)Trapped-ion quantum computingCloud QPU access, services, systemsLarger public market cap today; raised significant capital; pure computing focus. (See investor deck comps.) Churchill Capital X Corp
D-Wave (QBTS)Quantum annealing (optimization), moving toward “advantage2”Cloud/hybrid annealing services; enterprise pilotsSmaller revenue base than Infleqtion per deck comps; meaningful enterprise logos. Churchill Capital X Corp
Rigetti (RGTI)Superconducting gate-modelCloud access, government R&D, systemsSimilar early-stage commercialization; comps show lower LTM revenue. Churchill Capital X Corp

Deck comparison slide shows Infleqtion LTM revenue ~$29M vs IONQ $52M, D-Wave $22M, Rigetti $8M as of 6/30/25 (company/FactSet notes; prelim and subject to change). Churchill Capital X Corp

Live trading context (today): IONQ ~$70, QBTS ~$27, RGTI ~$29, CCCX ~$12 (can be volatile around deal milestones). (Prices from the market feed above.)


Simple thesis (retail version)

Bull case (what could go right):

  • Quantum sensing has nearer-term use (GPS-denied nav, timing, RF) -> revenue earlier than pure computing. Government/defense demand is a strong tailwind. Nasdaq

  • Platform leverage: one neutral-atom “core” to serve both sensing + computing -> diversified revenue and cross-learning. The Quantum Insider

  • Capitalized via SPAC + PIPE to scale production and delivery. Yahoo Finance

Bear case (key risks):

  • De-SPAC risk: redemptions/dilution; post-merger selling pressure common in SPACs. SEC

  • Execution/SWaP-C: shrinking lab systems into rugged, cost-effective field units is hard; procurement cycles can be long. (Industry analyses flag manufacturability & adoption hurdles.) datacenterdynamics.com

  • Competition & valuation volatility across quantum names.


How to invest (plain English)

  1. Before the merger closes: buying CCCX common gives you exposure. If the deal closes and you do not redeem, your CCCX shares become INFQ automatically at closing. There will be a shareholder vote and a redemption window disclosed in the SEC S-4/proxy. SEC

  2. At/after conversion: ticker should switch to INFQ; trading can be volatile in the first weeks. SEC

  3. Position sizing (retail rule-of-thumb): treat as early-stage growth—size modestly (e.g., 0.5–2% of portfolio per name), add on execution catalysts (new contracts/shipments) rather than price spikes.

  4. Catalysts to watch: SEC S-4 effectiveness, shareholder vote, redemption results, first major shipment(s) of sensors/nav systems, new defense/space awards, computing milestones (logical-qubit progress). SEC+1


Bottom line (my take)

If you want nearer-term quantum exposure tilted to sensing + dual-track computing, Infleqtion offers a differentiated approach and real (if early) revenues vs peers. The risk is high (it’s still deep-tech + SPAC dynamics), but the setup is credible: named government customers, growing bookings, and fresh capital. For a diversified retail portfolio, a starter position held through the conversion—with eyes on redemption levels and first post-close execution—makes sense if you accept volatility and a multi-year horizon. Quantum Computing Report+2Yahoo Finance+2



Ed Note: How are we investing in Infleqtion?

We bought shares of CCCX @ $10.70 and plan to hold them through the conversion process.  

If, after conversion, there is a drop in share price of INFQ, we will be adding to our small position.(1.5%)

Sources & references

Thursday, July 31, 2025

MP Materials has had a tremendous run in July as the REE fever rose. Going forward, there are others to consider as M&A candidates for MP

 


Based on current data (as of mid-2025), rare earth industry trends, government backing, stage of development, and market positioning, here are the top four REE-related companies most likely to increase significantly in value over the next year, ranked by risk-adjusted upside potential:


🥇 1. Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (TSXV: UCU / OTCQX: UURAF)

Why it could surge:

  • Constructing REE separation facility in Louisiana (RapidSX™ tech)—set to begin commissioning late 2025.

  • Strong U.S. government support via Department of Defense funding (DPA Title III).

  • Positioned to become first U.S.-based independent REE separator in decades.

  • Strategic role in breaking China’s REE monopoly.

Catalysts:

  • Facility commissioning, commercial offtake agreements, potential downstream partnerships.

Risk: Execution and funding dilution risk.


🥈 2. Ramaco Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: METC)

Why it could surge:

  • Already profitable from coal, providing internal capital for REE development.

  • Owns a major REE deposit (~1.7M tons TREO), pilot REE plant set for late 2025.

  • Strong cost discipline; low debt.

  • First U.S. company potentially transitioning from coal to REE production + metallurgy.

Catalysts:

  • Pilot plant progress, REE spin-out or joint ventures, metallurgical news.

Risk: REE development is early-stage; valuation still coal-centric.


🥉 3. American Rare Earths Ltd. (OTCQX: ARRNF / ASX: ARR)

Why it could surge:

  • Controls two of the largest undeveloped U.S. REE deposits (La Paz, AZ and Halleck Creek, WY).

  • Exploration results show world-scale tonnage and scalability.

  • Gaining visibility as a U.S. critical minerals supplier—potential acquisition target.

Catalysts:

  • Updated resource estimates, PEA release, government grants, U.S. defense interest.

Risk: No revenue, pre-PEA stage; high dilution potential.


🏅 4. Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU)

Why it could surge:

  • Currently producing REEs (NdPr) from monazite at White Mesa Mill.

  • Also active in uranium and vanadium—diversified cash flow.

  • Working toward rare earth separation and metals production.

  • One of few North American producers already shipping REE concentrates.

Catalysts:

  • Rare earth oxide production ramp, long-term supply deals, uranium price spike.

Risk: Multi-commodity exposure adds complexity; commodity volatility.

Honorary mention:  Avalon (AVL.t) see...

nasdaq.com/press-release/avalon-advanced-materials-announces-28-increase-measured-and-indicated-mineral


News-Aug 1st... 

msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-administration-weighs-expanding-price-support-for-u-s-rare-earth-projects-reuters/ar-AA1JFWnQ?ocid=socialshare

🧭 Summary Table

RankCompanyTickerKey StrengthNear-Term CatalystsRisk Level
1️⃣Ucore Rare MetalsUCU / UURAFREE separation, U.S. gov't backingFacility launch, contractsModerate
2️⃣Ramaco ResourcesMETCProfitable, REE pivotPilot plant, REE newsModerate
3️⃣American Rare EarthsARRNFMassive U.S. depositsPEA, gov't interestHigh
4️⃣Energy FuelsUUUUAlready processing REEsREO output growthModerate 

Friday, June 20, 2025

Robots, Robotics and Automation - Investing in the "picks and shovels"!

 


If I had to pick only one "pick and shovel" stock to invest in for the robotics (especially humanoid/industrial robot) boom—including plays like Tesla's Optimus—my choice is:


🏆 Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK)

🔧 Why Rockwell?

1. Pure-play industrial automation leader

  • Rockwell is deeply embedded in manufacturing, robotics integration, motion control, industrial sensors, and factory digitization.

  • Its FactoryTalk, ControlLogix, and Allen-Bradley product lines are widely used in industrial robotics—from automotive to food production.

2. Strategic partnerships with AI & cloud giants

  • Rockwell has deep integrations with Microsoft Azure, NVIDIA Omniverse, and PTC (IoT CAD software)—vital for robotic design, simulation, and operation.

3. Robotics-native clients

  • Customers include Tesla, Boeing, Procter & Gamble, and automation integrators. Optimus-style humanoid robots will require factory retooling—which Rockwell enables.

4. Strong financials

  • High margins (~25% EBITDA), consistent free cash flow, and a track record of innovation make it a rare combo of growth, quality, and income (1.6% dividend yield).

  • Rockwell is profitable, with global exposure and minimal debt pressure.

5. Long-term megatrends tailwind

  • Growth in "lights-out factories", robotic arms, machine vision, and motion automation all converge at Rockwell.

  • As companies transition from legacy automation to AI-enhanced robotic systems, Rockwell provides the tools, software, and integration layers.


✳️ Quick Stats (as of June 2025)

MetricValue
Market Cap~$32B
Dividend Yield~1.6%
P/E Ratio~28x
YoY Revenue Growth~6%
Robotics/Automation %>75% of revenue

🆚 Why Not Others?

  • Ametek (AME) and RBC Bearings (RBC) are great precision motion plays—but more passive in robotic development.

  • NVIDIA is critical—but not a pure "pick and shovel" for robotics. It's broader AI and data center focused.

  • ABB, Keyence, and Siemens are also excellent—but either not U.S.-based or less pure-play.

  • Ouster (LiDAR) and Regal Rexnord (motors) are too narrow.


✅ Final Word

If you're investing in the tools behind the robotics revolution, especially as it scales into humanoids like Tesla's Optimus, Rockwell Automation stands out as the most strategic, financially sound, and robotics-focused pick-and-shovel stock available today.

Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
$321.80
+$107.21(+49.96%)Past 5 years

Here’s a detailed breakdown of Rockwell Automation (ROK), covering earnings projections and technical valuation insights:


📈 5-Year Earnings & Growth Forecast

PeriodProjected EPS Growth
Next 1 yr (to 2026)From ~$7.97 today to ~$9.73 → ~22% increase
2026 Estimate~$11.31 EPS
2027 Estimate~$13.17 EPS
CAGR (2025–2028)EPS +14.2% / revenue +6.2% annually
Long-term (to 2029)Analysts forecast ~$14.11 EPS by FY 2029 
Analyst Consensus: About 6‑11 analysts expect EPS between $9–10 for FY 2025 and rising steadily through 2027 .

📊 Technical Analysis Snapshot

  • Moving Averages:

    • On the daily scale, price is above 200‑day MA (~$277), 50‑day (~$283), and 20‑day (~$317), indicating a bullish trend 

    • Short‑term MAs also bullish in most models .

  • Trend & Patterns:
    ChartMill gives a technical rating of 9/10, with both short- and long-term trends positive.
    A bull-flag pattern suggests a potential buy-on-breakout opportunity, with support around $318 and resistance near $325 

  • Indicators:

    • RSI is neutral-to-strong — around mid‑range.

    • MACD recent crossover turns positive, supporting bullish momentum in daily models .

    • Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) upgraded RS rating to 83 (top quintile) but noted a slight pullback from a failed base entry near $308, implying a new base formation may be prudent 


🔍 Long-Term Outlook & Valuation

  • Earnings Growth Driver: Rockwell provides industrial automation solutions, benefiting from onshoring and the broader digitization of manufacturing. Barron’s highlights projected ~17% annual EPS growth through 2027 

  • Tariff Tailwinds: Rockwell is cited as a key beneficiary of increased onshoring due to higher tariffs, making it a go-to industrial play in that trend .

  • Valuation Summary:

    • Trading near $322, with a one-year average price target of $326 (range $290–371) by Wall Street 

    • Reasonable P/E based on ~$9–10 EPS, giving ~30×–35× forward P/E—typical for a high-quality industrial automation company.


🧭 Bottom Line

  • Earnings Trajectory: Robust growth expected — ~14–22% EPS CAGR over next 2–5 years.

  • Technical Setup: Bullish trend with backup from multiple indicators and chart patterns, though a careful entry after base confirmation may yield better risk/reward.

  • Macro-Catalysts: Onshoring, increased automation, and high-margin solutions support earnings and valuation.


Your Next Moves

  • For long-term exposure: Buying on dips above $318–$320 with a multi-year view of automation trends—and holding for EPS growth and rising automation adoption.

  • For tactical entries: Monitor a breakout above $325 on expanding volume—this would confirm bullish momentum and enable tighter, disciplined entries.

Here’s a refined model for a 12-month target price on Rockwell Automation (ROK):


📊 1. Base Scenario: Conservative PE

  • EPS Estimate for FY2026: ~$11.49 

  • Modest Forward P/E: 26× (near its historical fair ratio of ~29×)

  • Target Price: 11.49 × 26 ≈ $299

This projection is slightly below current levels, suggesting limited upside if the market is cautious.


🔼 2. Growth Scenario: Elevated PE

  • Same EPS: $11.49

  • Premium P/E: 30× (reflecting continued automation enthusiasm)

  • Target Price: 11.49 × 30 ≈ $345

This targets the upper range of analyst forecasts and assumes multiple expansion 


🛠 3. Bull Case: Full Growth Re-Rating

  • EPS for FY2027: ~$13.19 

  • High-End P/E: 28× (middle ground between growth and valuation)

  • Target Price: 13.19 × 28 ≈ $370

This aligns with the top analyst estimate ($371) .


📌 Summary Table

ScenarioAssumed EPSP/E MultipleTarget Price
Base$11.4926×$299
Growth$11.4930×$345
Bull (2027)$13.1928×$370

🔍 Interpretation

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Here's an aggressive way to enter the Agentic Ai stock race if you're seeking high reward that carries high risk!

 


here's a high-conviction Agentic AI stock watchlist for an aggressive portfolio, including ideal buy ranges, key catalysts, and what to watch for each company. This is geared toward catching breakouts or deep-value setups before broader institutional moves.


🔧 AGENTIC AI CREATORS (BUILDERS)

1. C3.ai (Ticker: AI)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $22 – $28

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • New generative AI enterprise product launches (esp. AI agents for defense/oil & gas)

    • Major U.S. government contract renewals or expansions

  • Why it’s on the list: First-mover advantage in enterprise AI platforms; if execution improves, the upside is enormous.


2. Symbotic (Ticker: SYM)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $33 – $38

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • New mega-retailer partnerships (Amazon, Target, etc.)

    • Expansion into full-agentic warehouse orchestration

  • Why it’s on the list: Already profitable and scaling; its tech uses autonomous decision-making across supply chains.


3. Recursion Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: RXRX)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $5.50 – $7.50

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • New AI-discovered drug candidates entering clinical trials

    • Further expansion of NVIDIA partnership

  • Why it’s on the list: One of the few companies using AI agents to autonomously identify disease-drug interactions.


🚀 AGENTIC AI BENEFICIARIES (ADOPTERS)

4. Tempus AI (Ticker: TEM)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $30 – $36 (as a new IPO, use limit orders around pullbacks)

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • Major hospital system deals

    • Partnerships with genomic leaders (e.g. Illumina, Roche)

  • Why it’s on the list: Early innings of precision medicine + AI agents = potentially massive future upside.


5. Axon Enterprise (Ticker: AXON)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $275 – $295

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • Release of AI-powered real-time monitoring or predictive tools

    • Federal/DoD AI safety tech contracts

  • Why it’s on the list: Dominates public safety; building autonomous surveillance systems in-house.


6. Samsara (Ticker: IOT)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $30 – $34

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • Launch of AI co-pilots or agents for fleet automation

    • Expansion into non-logistics industries (e.g. construction, food supply)

  • Why it’s on the list: Already uses agentic loops for logistics and safety — sticky B2B model with scale potential.


📋 Summary: Watchlist Snapshot

TickerNameIdeal Buy RangeKey Catalyst
AIC3.ai$22–$28New enterprise AI agents/contracts
SYMSymbotic$33–$38Expansion into new retail/logistics
RXRXRecursion$5.50–$7.50Drug pipeline + Nvidia push
TEMTempus AI$30–$36Genomics/healthcare expansion
AXONAxon$275–$295AI-enabled law enforcement tools
IOTSamsara$30–$34AI co-pilot expansion to new verticals

Ed Note:

We own several of the stocks listed here with the rest on our watch list!