If we use the election cycle as a guide, especially for U.S. presidential elections, there are some historical patterns investors often pay attention to:
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Post-election years (like 2025) often bring policy shifts (stimulus, deregulation, defense spending, etc.) that affect certain sectors.
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The first year of a presidency often includes new government programs, spending packages, and regulatory changes—this can mean big moves for companies exposed to government contracts or regulation.
So, if we go by history and themes that often play well in post-election years, here are a few sectors and example companies to watch for potential gains in 2025:
⚙️ 1. Defense & Aerospace
New administrations (regardless of party) often increase defense budgets or reallocate them. Global tensions also drive this.
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Lockheed Martin (LMT)
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Northrop Grumman (NOC)
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Palantir Technologies (PLTR) – also benefits from defense + AI + government contracting.
🏗️ 2. Infrastructure & Clean Energy
If a new or returning president pushes for infrastructure investment or green energy, watch for this boost.
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Caterpillar (CAT) – infrastructure and construction machinery.
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NextEra Energy (NEE) – strong in renewables.
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Quanta Services (PWR) – electric grid, renewables infrastructure.
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Tesla (TSLA) – if EV incentives ramp up again.
🏥 3. Healthcare & Biotech
Healthcare reform efforts and FDA funding shifts can heavily impact drug and medtech companies.
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UnitedHealth Group (UNH) – strong during regulatory changes.
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Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) – if focus returns to obesity and diabetes solutions.
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10X Genomics (TXG), Twist Bioscience (TWST) – if genomics and biotech innovation get funding support.
🧠 4. Artificial Intelligence & Cybersecurity
Governments are investing in AI infrastructure and cybersecurity regardless of party lines.
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NVIDIA (NVDA) – chips powering AI.
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SentinelOne (S) or CrowdStrike (CRWD) – cyber defense.
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C3.ai (AI) – close to government contracts + enterprise AI.
💻 5. Semiconductors & Reshoring
Both parties push for U.S. manufacturing and chip independence.
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Intel (INTC) – heavy government backing for fabs.
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AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) – tied to infrastructure and AI buildout.
🏦 6. Financials
Rising interest rates and policy changes may impact banks and fintechs.
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – strong during rising rate environments.
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Charles Schwab (SCHW) – benefits from investor optimism and capital flows.
🧱 Bonus: "Made in America" Manufacturing Push
If the next administration continues or accelerates reshoring, you might look at:
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Eaton (ETN) – power management.
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Generac (GNRC) – tied to grid resilience and climate-driven demand.
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Enphase Energy (ENPH) – if solar incentives return.
if we go purely by the Presidential Election Cycle Theory, without regard to who's elected or what policies are implemented, the stock picks would shift slightly. Here's how it breaks down:
🔄 Presidential Election Cycle Theory (based on 100 years of market data)
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Year 1 (Post-election, like 2025):
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Historically the weakest year for markets, as new policies are introduced and uncertainty is high.
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However, select sectors still do well, especially those tied to defensive industries and government spending.
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📈 Sectors That Have Historically Done Well in Year 1 (like 2025)
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Defense & Aerospace
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Government spending is rarely cut here, and often increases in a new administration.
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📌 Picks: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), Northrop Grumman (NOC)
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Consumer Staples
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Investors tend to get more defensive in Year 1, favoring essentials over risk.
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📌 Picks: Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP)
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Utilities
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Steady cash flow, dividends, and regulation-protected businesses tend to outperform early in a presidential cycle.
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📌 Picks: NextEra Energy (NEE), Duke Energy (DUK)
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Healthcare
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Historically does well early in the cycle due to defensive nature and consistent demand.
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📌 Picks: UnitedHealth Group (UNH), AbbVie (ABBV), Pfizer (PFE)
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🧠 Less Emphasis on Risk-On Plays (at least early in Year 1)
High-growth sectors like tech, small caps, and speculative AI or biotech often lag in Year 1 of a presidency, unless there's a clear macro tailwind or stimulus policy. So under the pure cycle method, you might de-emphasize:
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NVIDIA (NVDA)
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Tesla (TSLA)
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ARK-style innovation stocks
⏳ When Would Those Growth Stocks Shine Again?
Historically, Year 3 of a presidential cycle (i.e., 2027) is the best year for markets — that’s when risk-on names historically shine again, thanks to:
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Stimulus before re-election campaigns
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Low volatility
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Business-friendly environments
Summary of 2025 Sector Tilt (Based on 100-Year Cycle Alone):
| Sector | Reason | Example Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Defense | New spending priorities, safe in all climates | LMT, RTX, NOC |
| Consumer Staples | Defensive, reliable earnings | PG, KO, PEP |
| Utilities | High dividends, stable cash flow | NEE, DUK |
| Healthcare | Consistent demand, defensive | UNH, ABBV, PFE |
Let’s blend the Presidential Election Cycle theory with the reality of today’s innovation drivers: AI, quantum computing, and healthcare.
🧠 The Strategy:
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Use the Year 1 (2025) cycle pattern as the foundation (defensives and government-aligned picks).
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Overlay that with 2025’s megatrends — AI, quantum computing, and healthcare innovation.
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Choose balanced exposure: stability + growth + innovation, weighted accordingly.
📊 Hypothetical 2025 Portfolio (Balanced & Thematic)
| Category | Weight | Stock Picks | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defense & Government AI | 20% | Lockheed Martin (LMT) Palantir Technologies (PLTR) | Defense always gets funding in Year 1. PLTR has deep AI + Gov roots. |
| Consumer Staples | 10% | Procter & Gamble (PG) PepsiCo (PEP) | Safe haven during economic/policy transitions. |
| Utilities (Green Tilt) | 10% | NextEra Energy (NEE) Brookfield Renewable (BEP) | Stable dividends + clean energy upside. |
| Healthcare (Core) | 20% | UnitedHealth (UNH) Eli Lilly (LLY) | Defensive and growth. LLY also has GLP-1 tailwind. |
| Healthcare (Innovative) | 10% | 10X Genomics (TXG) Twist Bioscience (TWST) | Genomics and synthetic biology play to long-term innovation. |
| AI Infrastructure (Stable) | 10% | Microsoft (MSFT) NVIDIA (NVDA) | MSFT for enterprise AI/cloud, NVDA for infrastructure. Both resilient even in choppy years. |
| AI + Quantum Pure Plays | 10% | C3.ai (AI) IonQ (IONQ) | Riskier growth, but aligned with megatrend of the decade. |
| Cash or Short-term Bonds | 10% | BIL (Treasury ETF) or cash equivalent | Preserves dry powder for volatility and rotation into growth later in the cycle. |
🧩 Optional Tilt Ideas (if you want more flavor)
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Swap PEP for Costco (COST) if you want retail exposure.
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Add AbbVie (ABBV) if you want more dividend-friendly healthcare.
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Add Honeywell (HON) for a hybrid industrial + quantum exposure.
🎯 Portfolio Themes Summary:
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Cycle-aware: Defensive posture in Year 1.
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Future-aware: Allocated to the sectors leading the next wave (AI, quantum, genomics).
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Balanced: Risk is spread across stability (utilities/staples), income (healthcare/defense), and innovation (AI/quantum/genomics).
Now let’s bolt on a “high-risk / high-reward” satellite portfolio that complements your core 2025 cycle-aware + future-tech portfolio.
🎯 Purpose of Satellite Portfolio:
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Capture explosive upside potential from early-stage or volatile innovators.
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Lean into speculative AI, quantum, biotech, and frontier tech bets.
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Accept that some may not perform in Year 1 of the cycle, but could 10x+ in later years.
🚀 Speculative Satellite Portfolio (10-15% of Total Portfolio)
| Stock / Ticker | Sector | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| C3.ai (AI) | AI Enterprise | Early mover in AI platforms, volatile but visionary — Gov + private AI. |
| IonQ (IONQ) | Quantum Tech | One of the few pure-play quantum stocks, backed by AWS/Microsoft. |
| Recursion Pharma (RXRX) | AI + Drug Discovery | Backed by NVIDIA + using AI to map biology and accelerate pharma pipelines. |
| Annovis Bio (ANVS) | Alzheimer’s Biotech | Small-cap biotech chasing a huge unmet need — big swing on clinical data. |
| Symbotic (SYM) | Robotics/AI | AI-powered warehouse robotics, backed by Walmart and SoftBank. |
| ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) | Biotech/Genomics | Access to early-stage genomics, CRISPR, and longevity companies. |
| BrainChip Holdings (BRCHF) | Neuromorphic AI | Super speculative — building chips modeled after the human brain. |
| Zapata AI (ZPTA) | Quantum-AI | Recent SPAC; combining generative AI with quantum optimization. Very high-risk. |
⚠️ Notes:
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These stocks/companies are more volatile and often not profitable.
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Some may be thinly traded or prone to sharp corrections on news.
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Meant to be a smaller piece (10-15%) of your total exposure — think moonshots.
🔧 Allocation Suggestion (If you allocate 15%)
| Ticker | Allocation % |
|---|---|
| AI | 2% |
| IONQ | 2% |
| RXRX | 2% |
| ANVS | 2% |
| SYM | 2% |
| ARKG | 2% |
| BRCHF | 1.5% |
| ZPTA | 1.5% |
ED Note:
This is not investment advice, nor am I an investment advisor. The foregoing is a report created wholly using "Deep Research" Ai using public information from 100 years of Presidential elections. It should be noted, however, that many of Wall Streets elite often refer to the "Election Cycle" metric.
