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Showing posts with label Quantum computing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quantum computing. Show all posts

Monday, December 15, 2025

Quantum Technology, Where, how and why I am invested in this cutting edge technology of the future!

 If I were coming into quantum new but doing institutional-grade diligence, I’d usually force myself to own a “barbell”: (1) one scaled incumbent with a credible roadmap and ecosystem, plus (2–3) focused pure-plays where upside is most asymmetric.


My top three picks

1) IBM (IBM)

Why it makes the cut: IBM is one of the few players with an end-to-end stack (hardware + software + enterprise distribution) and a roadmap explicitly centered on scaling performance through its System Two architecture and the Heron processor family. IBM+1
Investment logic: as a seasoned investor, IBM is the “quantum exposure with survivability”—you’re not underwriting a single technical bet, and IBM can fund long timelines while commercializing along the way (software, services, hybrid workflows).

Key diligence items to track: roadmap execution (processor performance, error rates, scaling), enterprise adoption, and whether quantum contributes meaningfully to broader IBM growth rather than remaining a perpetual R&D line item. IBM+1


2) IonQ (IONQ)

Why it makes the cut: among the public pure-plays, IonQ is combining (a) trapped-ion positioning with (b) aggressive balance-sheet and ecosystem building. In Q3 2025, IonQ reported $39.9M revenue (222% YoY) and highlighted $1.5B cash as of Sept 30, 2025 and $3.5B pro-forma after an October equity offering—i.e., meaningful financial runway for a long R&D cycle. IonQ+1
They’re also expanding beyond compute into networking / infrastructure via acquisitions (e.g., Lightsynq and Skyloom), which matters if distributed quantum / quantum-secure comms becomes a real value layer. IonQ+1

Investment logic: IonQ is one of the clearest “platform roll-up” attempts in public markets—higher volatility, but potentially the most convex upside if they keep converting technical milestones into commercial contracts and ecosystem control. IonQ Investors+1

On a personal note, I believe IONQ is truly in the sweet spot of Quantum technology, however more volatile at this time. (I am adding at today's levels)

Key diligence items to track: dilution vs. strategic use of capital, conversion of bookings/contracts into repeatable revenue, and whether acquisitions create true integration advantage versus complexity. IonQ+1


3) D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)

Why it makes the cut: D-Wave is differentiated because it has been commercial for years and leans into annealing / optimization use cases (often closer to near-term ROI than fault-tolerant “universal” QC). In Q3 fiscal 2025, D-Wave reported $3.7M revenue (up 100% YoY) and very high non-GAAP gross margin (77.7%), while also showing improved adjusted loss metrics (even as GAAP net loss was distorted by warrant-related, largely non-operating items). dwavequantum.com+1

Investment logic: as a portfolio component, D-Wave can be a “commercial traction bet” in quantum—still high risk, but the story is less purely theoretical than many peers.

Key diligence items to track: whether bookings translate into durable recurring revenue, customer concentration, and how the company sustains growth without constant capital-market dependence. Barron's+1


Why I did not put Rigetti in the top three (even though it’s investable)

Rigetti is investable and has real technical progress, but for a strict “top three” list I usually prefer (a) an incumbent with scale (IBM), plus (b) the two pure-play profiles that are most distinct from each other (IonQ “platform roll-up” + D-Wave “commercial annealing”). Recent analyst coverage often groups IonQ/Rigetti/D-Wave together as the main pure-plays, which is directionally fair, but you asked for three. Barron's


Practical note (how I’d implement as a seasoned investor)

Quantum remains a long-duration, high-volatility theme. Even if these are your “best three,” I would treat them like venture-style public equities: smaller position sizes, staged entries, and explicit technical/commercial milestone checkpoints (not just price targets). Barron's

Below is a concise, investor-grade due-diligence scorecard for the three companies discussed. The intent is not to predict winners, but to clarify where each one wins, where risk resides, and what milestones actually matter for capital allocation.


Quantum Investment Due-Diligence Scorecard (Top 3)

Scoring Legend

  • 5 = Best-in-class

  • 3 = Adequate / developing

  • 1 = Weak / speculative


1) IBM (NYSE: IBM) — Incumbent / De-risked Exposure

DimensionScoreRationale
Core Technology4.5Superconducting qubits with the clearest published scaling roadmap (Heron, Condor, System Two).
Error Mitigation / Scaling Path4.5Leader in error mitigation, modular scaling, and quantum-classical integration.
Software & Ecosystem5.0Qiskit is the industry standard; deep developer and enterprise penetration.
Commercialization4.0Real enterprise pilots, but quantum is not yet a material revenue driver.
Balance Sheet / Runway5.0Effectively unlimited relative to pure-plays.
Dilution Risk5.0None.
Upside Asymmetry3.0Lower multiple expansion; upside is strategic, not explosive.

Role in a portfolio:
Foundation / anchor exposure to quantum with minimal existential risk.


2) IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) — High-Convexity Platform Bet

DimensionScoreRationale
Core Technology4.0Trapped-ion architecture with strong fidelity and coherence advantages.
Error Mitigation / Scaling Path3.5Fewer qubits today, but strong logical-qubit potential long term.
Software & Ecosystem3.5Cloud-first strategy via hyperscalers; expanding platform breadth via acquisitions.
Commercialization3.5Fast revenue growth, government + enterprise traction, still early.
Balance Sheet / Runway4.5One of the strongest cash positions among pure-plays.
Dilution Risk2.5Real and ongoing—must be justified by execution.
Upside Asymmetry5.0One of the highest payoff profiles if roadmap + ecosystem converge.

Role in a portfolio:
Primary upside driver—this is where outsized returns would come from if public quantum winners emerge.


3) D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) — Near-Term Commercialization Bet

DimensionScoreRationale
Core Technology3.5Quantum annealing—narrower than gate-based QC but proven for optimization.
Error Mitigation / Scaling Path3.0Not pursuing universal fault-tolerant QC, but scaling annealers effectively.
Software & Ecosystem3.0Focused tooling aimed at optimization users.
Commercialization4.5Real customers, recurring revenue, strong gross margins.
Balance Sheet / Runway3.0Improved but still sensitive to capital markets.
Dilution Risk3.0Moderate; better than many peers, not trivial.
Upside Asymmetry3.5Less “moonshot,” more execution-dependent upside.

Role in a portfolio:
Revenue-led hedge—closest thing to an operating quantum business today.


Summary View (Investor Framing)

CompanyWhat You’re Really Buying
IBMSurvivability, ecosystem dominance, and quantum optionality inside a global enterprise.
IonQThe most credible pure-play asymmetric upside in public markets.
D-WaveEvidence that quantum can already generate revenue, even if not universal QC.

How a Seasoned Investor Would Size This

(Not advice—illustrative framework only)

  • IBM: 40–50% of quantum allocation (risk control)

  • IonQ: 30–40% (convex upside)

  • D-Wave: 15–25% (commercial execution bet)


Milestones That Actually Matter (Ignore the Noise)

  • IBM: Logical qubit demonstrations + enterprise workloads moving from pilot → production

  • IonQ: Sustained revenue growth without disproportionate dilution; successful integration of networking acquisitions

  • D-Wave: Expansion of recurring enterprise contracts and cash-flow trajectory improvement


Editors  Note

The next logical step 

  • Add Rigetti as a fourth comparator, or

  • Convert this into a 1–2 year milestone-triggered investment plan 

  • (what would make you add, trim, or exit each position).

  • Try not to get too confused by all the noise!


Monday, September 22, 2025

Placing Honeywell (HON) on our watch list. Here is an overview of current information available!

 


Below is a structured investment/business report for Honeywell (HON) covering their recent financials, stock & valuation, outlook over the next 2-4 years (especially considering DoD / Aerospace tailwinds and their Solstice & Quantinuum spin-offs), plus bull / base / bear cases. We're placing HON on our watch list!


Honeywell (HON) Report

Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Open208.66
Volume672.7K
Day Low207.33
Day High209.22
Year Low179.36
Year High242.77

Executive Summary

Honeywell is in the midst of a major portfolio transformation: spinning off its advanced materials business (Solstice), planning separations of its Aerospace and Automation segments, while keeping majority ownership of Quantinuum in quantum computing. With rising U.S. defense spending (DoD) and growing demand in aerospace and space, there are tailwinds. But there are also meaningful execution risks, margin pressures, valuation challenges, and macro uncertainties. Over a 2-4 year horizon, there is potential upside, but also downside if things don’t go well.


Recent Financials & Key Metrics

Here are the most relevant recent financials and operational metrics:

MetricValue / Trend
Q2 2025 Revenue~$10.4 billion, up ~8% year-over-year. MLQ+1
Organic Sales Growth~5% YoY. Honeywell International Inc.+1
Operating Income & Segment ProfitUp ~7-8% in Q2 in those corresponding segments. Segment margin ~22.9%. Honeywell International Inc.+1
MarginsOperating margin slightly compressed (~30 basis points) to ~20.4%. Segment margins roughly stable with small contractions in some parts, but guidance expects modest margin expansion year over year. Honeywell International Inc.+2Honeywell+2
Free Cash Flow / Operating Cash Flow (FCF / OCF)Full-year guidance: OCF ~$6.7-$7.1B; FCF ~$5.4-$5.8B. In Q2, free cash flow down relative to same period last year. MLQ+3Honeywell+3Honeywell International Inc.+3
Guidance for 2025Sales: $40.8-$41.3B. Organic growth ~4-5%. Adjusted EPS $10.45-$10.65. Segment margin expected to be ~23.0-23.2% and expand modestly. Honeywell+1
Spin-off & Portfolio Restructuring PlanAdvanced Materials (Solstice) spin-off in Q4 2025; full separations of Aerospace and Automation businesses planned, with full structure in place by the second half of 2026. Quantinuum remains majority owned. Honeywell+1

Industry / Macro Drivers

These are the external tailwinds and headwinds that are likely to affect Honeywell over the next few years, particularly in DoD/Aerospace:

  • Rising Defense Spending



    Global defense budgets have been growing (~8-9% in 2024). PwC+1 The U.S. DoD is increasing procurement, R&D, especially in next-gen tech, missiles/munitions, unmanned systems, space. Deloitte+1 The U.S. FYDP (Future Years Defense Program) projects DoD budget to climb to ~$866B (inflation adjusted) by 2029. Congressional Budget Office

  • Aerospace / Flight Aftermarket Recovery



    Commercial aviation is recovering, spare parts / aftermarket demand improving; backlog of orders growing in many aerospace firms. This helps Honeywell’s aerospace units. Honeywell International Inc.+1

  • Growth in Advanced Materials / Environmental Regulation
    Climate, refrigerant regulation, semiconductor fabrications etc. are pushing for new materials / specialty chemicals. Solstice (advanced materials) is well-positioned for that.

  • Quantum Computing / New Tech Exposure via Quantinuum



    Though early stage, Quantinuum gives exposure to what might be a large growth domain in coming years; could deliver outsized returns if commercial adoption accelerates.

  • Risks from Inflation, Supply Chains, Regulatory / Environmental Costs
    Input cost inflation, energy, transport, labor remain risks. Regulations (e.g. around refrigerants, safety, environmental compliance) could raise costs and reduce margins.

  • Macro Uncertainty
    Interest rates, geopolitical risk (wars, trade wars), recession potential, etc., could slow demand in industrials / aerospace. Also foreign demand and export policy matter.


Outlook (2-4 Year)

Given current financials + macro drivers + the spin-off plan, here is what we might reasonably expect over the next 2-4 years for Honeywell, broken into what success might look like, what a base case might deliver, and potential downside.

AreaExpectations in 2-4 Years
Revenue GrowthIn a good case, overall revenue growth (organic + from parts) of ~5-8% CAGR. Some segments (Aerospace / Defense / Solstice) maybe higher (8-12%). In base case more like 4-6%. Bear case could see growth slump to low single digits or flat in some underperforming units.
MarginsSegment margins likely to improve modestly after spin-offs due to more focused operations, better cost control, scale in high-growth areas. On the other hand, industrial automation margin might lag. Overall margin expansion of 50-150 bps possible in bull/base, contraction of similar magnitude in bear case due to cost pressures.
Free Cash FlowThe FCF base is strong; expect FCF to grow at moderate rate unless costs spiral. Capital deployment (spin-off costs, separations, debt, investments in new tech) will eat into some cash. In bull case, FCF growth plus returns via dividends/share buybacks. In base case, steady but moderate improvement. Bear case sees cash flow squeezed by margin compression / higher costs / weaker demand.
Valuation / Market RecognitionWith spin-offs (Solstice, then Aerospace, then Automation), market may assign higher multiples to each focused business vs current conglomerate discount. If markets buy into growth in Solstice and quantum via Quantinuum, could see stock appreciation + value realization. But the timeline is likely 2025-2026 for spins and 2026-2027 for full market recognition.
Role of DoD / Aerospace ContractsGrowth in DoD spending should benefit Honeywell’s Aerospace & Defense / Space segment: more contracts, more backlog, possibly new contracts in unmanned systems, space surveillance, hypersonic defense, etc. Quantum computing may also see government contracts / R&D funding. That helps revenue, backlog, margin stability.

Valuation & Stock Price Considerations

  • Current stock is trading in the low-$200s (≈ $209 as of latest).

  • Forward earnings (2025 expected EPS ~$10.45-$10.65) imply P/E in mid-teens to ~20× depending on how conservatively you assume growth & margins.

  • Some of the upside is embedded, but also likely somewhat priced for spin-offs or expected improvements (though markets often under-estimate execution issues).

  • There is a “conglomerate discount” component: until the spin-offs are cleanly executed and investors have visibility into each entity’s standalone metrics, some of the theoretical value may not be captured.


Bull / Base / Bear Cases

Here are scenarios over ~2-4 years for Honeywell under different assumptions.

ScenarioKey AssumptionsKey Outcomes / MetricsRisks & What Can Go Wrong
Bull Case• DoD / Aerospace demand accelerates (strong government spending, new contracts, favorable export policy, stable macro).
• Spin-offs (Solstice, Aerospace, Automation) occur cleanly, on time, with minimal drag and cost.
• Quantinuum makes meaningful progress commercially or via government funding; visible path to monetization.
• Cost, inflation, supply chain pressures well managed.
• Capital allocation strong: share buybacks, dividends, reinvestment in growth areas.
• Revenue CAGR ~7-9%; Aerospace/Defense & Solstice grow fastest (double digit or near).
• Margin expansion of +100-200 bps overall; some segments seeing high margin improvement.
• Free cash flow growth strong; yield + capital returns meaningful.
• Stock price appreciation + spin-off value realization: total return perhaps +30-60% over 2-4 years (including spin-off payouts, share price gains).
• Higher multiples rewarded (EV/EBITDA, P/E) for individual entities post-separation.
• Delays or cost overruns in spin-offs; regulatory / tax hurdles.
• Weak aerospace commercial demand (e.g. airlines cut orders, macro recession, supply chain bottlenecks).
• Margin squeeze from inflation, energy, labor, especially in advanced materials.
• Quantum tech (Quantinuum) may not commercialize quickly or may require more capital than expected.
• Interest rates stay high; borrowing / financing costs elevated; valuations compressed.
Base Case• DoD / Aerospace demand grows steadily but not spectacularly.
• Spin-offs largely successful but with modest friction; some segments underperform relative to expectations.
• Quantinuum contributes but remains somewhat speculative.
• Inflation / costs moderate; macro environment stable or mild headwinds.
• Revenue CAGR ~4-6%; some segments higher, others lower.
• Margins modest improvement, maybe +50–100 bps; some segments flat or mildly underperform.
• FCF growth steady; capital returns stable (dividends + some buybacks).
• Total return perhaps +10-30% over 2-4 years (stock appreciation + dividend + partial spin-off benefits).
• Market begins to recognize separated entities; valuation improvement but not full peer premium in all segments.
• Some margin pressure erodes gains.
• Spin-off costs / overhead burdens reduce net benefit.
• Aerospace commercial demand might soften, e.g. airline financials, fuel cost, macro recession.
• Geopolitical/trade/regulation could add friction.
• Quantum remains more R&D than profit for longer.
Bear Case• DoD / Aerospace spending growth slows (budget cuts, shifting priorities, geopolitical shifts).
• Spin-offs delayed, over-costed, or create inefficiencies/distractions.
• Quantinuum fails to monetize significantly; R&D cost burdens.
• Inflation / input cost rises sustained; supply chain issues persist.
• Recession or weak demand in industrial sectors; interest rates high.
• Revenue growth low or flat in some segments; possibly overall growth ~1-3%.
• Margin contraction in key segments; overall margin flat or down.
• Free cash flow growth weak or volatile; less capital for returns; possibly debt or financing pressures in spun-off entities.
• Stock price underperforms; total return low to negative (maybe -5% to +5%) over the period.
• Market discounts risks; spun-off entities may trade at lower valuation if unproven or underperforming.
• Unexpected cost shocks (energy, raw materials, regulatory, carbon / environmental compliance).
• Weakness in commercial aerospace (fuel, demand, financing).
• Quantum tech remains more cost than return; investors lose patience.
• Strategic missteps in spin-offs: loss of synergy, duplication of costs, loss of customers or workforce in reorg.

Investment Considerations

Here are additional practical considerations / red flags / questions you should investigate before investing:

  • Spin-Off Financials Visibility: Once Solstice and the separated units publish standalone numbers (revenues, margins, debt, capex), examine them carefully. Sometimes spun-off entities carry inherited issues or lower margins than expected.

  • Quantinuum Exposure: How much capital is needed? What’s the path to positive cash flow / meaningful revenues? What contracts / clients already in hand? Science-to-commercialization timelines are often long, with many technical and regulatory risks.

  • Backlog / Order Pipeline in Aerospace / Defense: For the Aerospace & Defense segment, look at the order book, backlog growth, renewal of government contracts, exposure to delays (e.g. due to supply chain, regulatory).

  • Regulatory / Environmental Risks: Advanced materials (Solstice) may face both upside from environmental regulation (e.g. refrigerants, low-GWP chemicals) and risk (liabilities, compliance, raw material constraints, geopolitical supply).

  • Interest Rates / Cost of Capital: The spin-offs and ongoing investments will require capital; higher interest rates increase cost. Also, share buybacks / dividend policy depend on free cash generation.

  • Valuation Floor: How low could this go if things go badly? What’s the downside risk? Is there a margin of safety in the current price?

  • Competition: Both in aerospace (other OEMs, suppliers), in materials (chemical, specialty materials competitors), in defense tech, and in quantum computing (other entrants, research labs, etc.).

  • Macro / Trade Risk: Exports, trade wars, tariffs, supply constraints, foreign regulatory risk.


Conclusion & Recommendation

Based on the above, here’s my view:

  • Using a 3- to 5-year time horizon, I’d lean towards investing in Honeywell, or starting a position, but not going all in immediately. The upside (particularly from Solstice, increased DoD / Aerospace demand, and quantum exposure) seems meaningful enough to justify exposure, provided you can tolerate some volatility and execution risk.

  • I’d set my expectations modestly: seize gains from spin-off execution and DoD tailwinds, but assume base case unless there is strong evidence (contracts, margin expansion, Quantinuum commercialization) that a bull case is unfolding.

  • I’d also watch carefully for signals: quarterly financials relative to guidance; how the spin-offs are progressing; whether Aerospace / Defense backlog and margin trends stay strong; any regulatory / cost surprises in materials or quantum.

  • If your risk tolerance is lower, or you need returns in <2 years, this is riskier: lot of moving parts (spin-offs, macro risk), and the market might not fully reward the separated entities immediately.

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Here’s a tight, investor-ready snapshot of Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) with the latest numbers and why Quantinuum + portfolio moves matter.

 



Honeywell — Investment/Business Report (as of Sept 18, 2025)

Executive summary

Honeywell is reshaping into three focused platforms—Aerospace Technologies, Industrial Automation, and Energy & Sustainability Solutions—and plans to separate Automation and Aerospace after spinning its Advanced Materials unit (“Solstice Advanced Materials”) in Q4-2025, targeting all separations by 2H-2026. Q2’25 results beat guidance; FY-2025 outlook was raised. Meanwhile, majority-owned Quantinuum completed a $600M round at a $10B pre-money valuation, adding explicit “option value” to HON’s sum-of-parts. Honeywell International Inc. Honeywell Honeywell+1


Recent financials & guidance

  • Q2’25: Sales $10.35B (+8% y/y; +5% organic); Adj. EPS $2.75 (+10% y/y). Segment margin 22.9%. Honeywell International Inc.

  • FY-2025 guidance (raised Jul 24, 2025): Sales $40.8–$41.3B; organic growth 4–5%; segment margin 23.0–23.2%; Adj. EPS $10.45–$10.65; FCF $5.4–$5.8B. Honeywell International Inc.+1

  • Portfolio actions (Q2’25 release): Closed $2.2B Sundyne acquisition; announced £1.8B Johnson Matthey Catalyst Technologies deal; completed $1.3B PPE business sale; considering strategic alternatives for Productivity Solutions & Services and Warehouse & Workflow Solutions. Honeywell International Inc.


Segment performance & demand signals (Q2’25)

  • Aerospace Technologies: +6% organic; strength in defense & space (+13%) and commercial aftermarket (+7%); backlog +16%. Honeywell International Inc.

  • Industrial Automation: Flat organic; Sensing & Safety +4%; pressure in European demand and W&WS projects. Honeywell International Inc.

  • Building Automation: +8% organic; margin 26.2% aided by the Global Access Solutions acquisition (LenelS2, Onity, Supra). Acquisition closed Jun 3, 2024 for $4.95B. Honeywell International Inc.+2Honeywell+2

  • Energy & Sustainability Solutions (UOP + Advanced Materials): +6% organic; UOP +16% on catalysts, gas processing licenses, sustainability backlog conversion. Honeywell International Inc.


Technologies, contracts, partners & customers (selected 2024–2025 items)

  • Aerospace/Avionics: multi-year avionics deal with LOT Polish Airlines for its 737 MAX fleet (deliveries from 2026). Vertical Aerospace deepened a long-term pact for VX4 air-taxi flight-control systems (deal potential up to $1B over a decade). Honeywell Aerospace+1

  • Quantum sensing (near-term): U.S. DoD TQS program awards—CRUISE and QUEST (MagNav)—to develop quantum-enabled navigation/magnetometry. Honeywell Aerospace+1

  • Access control & smart buildings: LenelS2/Onity/Supra added at scale via Carrier deal; supports Honeywell’s Building Automation growth and cross-sell into enterprise/real-estate. Honeywell

  • UOP & sustainability: Ongoing wins in petrochemical catalysts, gas processing, SAF/renewables flows highlighted in Q2 deck/PR. Honeywell International Inc.


Quantinuum (majority-owned) — why it matters to HON

Capital raise: $600M at $10B pre-money (Sept 4, 2025); new investors include NVIDIA’s NVentures, Quanta Computer, QED Investors; prior $300M round (Jan 2024) valued at $5B. Reuters+3Honeywell+3

  • Tech milestones: record quantum volume on H-Series and roadmap toward fault-tolerant systems; NVIDIA CUDA-Q integration; IPO chatter 2026–2027 depending on markets. Barron's+1

  • Implication for HON: clearer sum-of-parts uplift (explicit equity mark + eventual liquidity), expanded defense/industrial sensing funnels, and partnership halo with blue-chip investors (NVIDIA, JPMorgan, Mitsui, etc.). Reuters+1


Strategy & catalysts (next 6–18 months)

  1. Separation roadmap: Spin of Solstice Advanced Materials targeted Q4-2025, followed by separation of Automation and Aerospace; full three-company structure targeted 2H-2026. Watch for Form-10/S-1 filings, capital structures, and dividend policies. Honeywell International Inc.

  2. M&A integration: Sundyne and Catalyst Technologies synergy realization; cross-sell of Global Access Solutions into Building Automation. Honeywell International Inc.+1

  3. Aerospace cycle: aftermarket strength + defense budgets; specific avionics/air-taxi certification milestones (LOT/Vertical). Honeywell Aerospace+1

  4. Quantum milestones: Quantinuum “Helios” updates, large-enterprise wins, and any IPO/spin signals; policy grants/DoD-DOE awards for quantum sensing/compute. Barron's+1

  5. FY-2025 delivery: hitting raised guide (sales, margin, EPS, FCF). Honeywell International Inc.


Risks

  • Execution on multi-step separations and integrations (Sundyne, Catalyst Tech; carve-outs). Honeywell International Inc.

  • Macro cyclicality (commercial aero, industrial automation projects) and Europe demand softness. Honeywell International Inc.

  • Quantum timing risk if commercialization lags expectations. (Industry-wide; mitigated by HON’s diversified earnings base.) Barron's


Valuation framing (qualitative)

  • With FY-2025 Adj. EPS $10.45–$10.65, HON trades at ~19–20× on the widget price above; premium supported by high-teens segment margins, strong FCF, and portfolio catalysts. A successful Quantinuum IPO could unlock incremental value beyond core industrial comps. Honeywell International Inc.


Bottom line

Honeywell’s core cash engines (Aerospace aftermarket/defense, UOP catalysts, Building Automation) are performing, guidance is higher, and management is simplifying the portfolio while adding targeted M&A. Overlay Quantinuum’s momentum and potential IPO, and you have a blue-chip industrial with structural re-rating catalysts and a quantum call option—tempered by separation/M&A execution and quantum timing risks. Honeywell International Inc.+1