"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label DOD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DOD. Show all posts

Monday, September 22, 2025

Placing Honeywell (HON) on our watch list. Here is an overview of current information available!

 


Below is a structured investment/business report for Honeywell (HON) covering their recent financials, stock & valuation, outlook over the next 2-4 years (especially considering DoD / Aerospace tailwinds and their Solstice & Quantinuum spin-offs), plus bull / base / bear cases. We're placing HON on our watch list!


Honeywell (HON) Report

Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Open208.66
Volume672.7K
Day Low207.33
Day High209.22
Year Low179.36
Year High242.77

Executive Summary

Honeywell is in the midst of a major portfolio transformation: spinning off its advanced materials business (Solstice), planning separations of its Aerospace and Automation segments, while keeping majority ownership of Quantinuum in quantum computing. With rising U.S. defense spending (DoD) and growing demand in aerospace and space, there are tailwinds. But there are also meaningful execution risks, margin pressures, valuation challenges, and macro uncertainties. Over a 2-4 year horizon, there is potential upside, but also downside if things don’t go well.


Recent Financials & Key Metrics

Here are the most relevant recent financials and operational metrics:

MetricValue / Trend
Q2 2025 Revenue~$10.4 billion, up ~8% year-over-year. MLQ+1
Organic Sales Growth~5% YoY. Honeywell International Inc.+1
Operating Income & Segment ProfitUp ~7-8% in Q2 in those corresponding segments. Segment margin ~22.9%. Honeywell International Inc.+1
MarginsOperating margin slightly compressed (~30 basis points) to ~20.4%. Segment margins roughly stable with small contractions in some parts, but guidance expects modest margin expansion year over year. Honeywell International Inc.+2Honeywell+2
Free Cash Flow / Operating Cash Flow (FCF / OCF)Full-year guidance: OCF ~$6.7-$7.1B; FCF ~$5.4-$5.8B. In Q2, free cash flow down relative to same period last year. MLQ+3Honeywell+3Honeywell International Inc.+3
Guidance for 2025Sales: $40.8-$41.3B. Organic growth ~4-5%. Adjusted EPS $10.45-$10.65. Segment margin expected to be ~23.0-23.2% and expand modestly. Honeywell+1
Spin-off & Portfolio Restructuring PlanAdvanced Materials (Solstice) spin-off in Q4 2025; full separations of Aerospace and Automation businesses planned, with full structure in place by the second half of 2026. Quantinuum remains majority owned. Honeywell+1

Industry / Macro Drivers

These are the external tailwinds and headwinds that are likely to affect Honeywell over the next few years, particularly in DoD/Aerospace:

  • Rising Defense Spending



    Global defense budgets have been growing (~8-9% in 2024). PwC+1 The U.S. DoD is increasing procurement, R&D, especially in next-gen tech, missiles/munitions, unmanned systems, space. Deloitte+1 The U.S. FYDP (Future Years Defense Program) projects DoD budget to climb to ~$866B (inflation adjusted) by 2029. Congressional Budget Office

  • Aerospace / Flight Aftermarket Recovery



    Commercial aviation is recovering, spare parts / aftermarket demand improving; backlog of orders growing in many aerospace firms. This helps Honeywell’s aerospace units. Honeywell International Inc.+1

  • Growth in Advanced Materials / Environmental Regulation
    Climate, refrigerant regulation, semiconductor fabrications etc. are pushing for new materials / specialty chemicals. Solstice (advanced materials) is well-positioned for that.

  • Quantum Computing / New Tech Exposure via Quantinuum



    Though early stage, Quantinuum gives exposure to what might be a large growth domain in coming years; could deliver outsized returns if commercial adoption accelerates.

  • Risks from Inflation, Supply Chains, Regulatory / Environmental Costs
    Input cost inflation, energy, transport, labor remain risks. Regulations (e.g. around refrigerants, safety, environmental compliance) could raise costs and reduce margins.

  • Macro Uncertainty
    Interest rates, geopolitical risk (wars, trade wars), recession potential, etc., could slow demand in industrials / aerospace. Also foreign demand and export policy matter.


Outlook (2-4 Year)

Given current financials + macro drivers + the spin-off plan, here is what we might reasonably expect over the next 2-4 years for Honeywell, broken into what success might look like, what a base case might deliver, and potential downside.

AreaExpectations in 2-4 Years
Revenue GrowthIn a good case, overall revenue growth (organic + from parts) of ~5-8% CAGR. Some segments (Aerospace / Defense / Solstice) maybe higher (8-12%). In base case more like 4-6%. Bear case could see growth slump to low single digits or flat in some underperforming units.
MarginsSegment margins likely to improve modestly after spin-offs due to more focused operations, better cost control, scale in high-growth areas. On the other hand, industrial automation margin might lag. Overall margin expansion of 50-150 bps possible in bull/base, contraction of similar magnitude in bear case due to cost pressures.
Free Cash FlowThe FCF base is strong; expect FCF to grow at moderate rate unless costs spiral. Capital deployment (spin-off costs, separations, debt, investments in new tech) will eat into some cash. In bull case, FCF growth plus returns via dividends/share buybacks. In base case, steady but moderate improvement. Bear case sees cash flow squeezed by margin compression / higher costs / weaker demand.
Valuation / Market RecognitionWith spin-offs (Solstice, then Aerospace, then Automation), market may assign higher multiples to each focused business vs current conglomerate discount. If markets buy into growth in Solstice and quantum via Quantinuum, could see stock appreciation + value realization. But the timeline is likely 2025-2026 for spins and 2026-2027 for full market recognition.
Role of DoD / Aerospace ContractsGrowth in DoD spending should benefit Honeywell’s Aerospace & Defense / Space segment: more contracts, more backlog, possibly new contracts in unmanned systems, space surveillance, hypersonic defense, etc. Quantum computing may also see government contracts / R&D funding. That helps revenue, backlog, margin stability.

Valuation & Stock Price Considerations

  • Current stock is trading in the low-$200s (≈ $209 as of latest).

  • Forward earnings (2025 expected EPS ~$10.45-$10.65) imply P/E in mid-teens to ~20× depending on how conservatively you assume growth & margins.

  • Some of the upside is embedded, but also likely somewhat priced for spin-offs or expected improvements (though markets often under-estimate execution issues).

  • There is a “conglomerate discount” component: until the spin-offs are cleanly executed and investors have visibility into each entity’s standalone metrics, some of the theoretical value may not be captured.


Bull / Base / Bear Cases

Here are scenarios over ~2-4 years for Honeywell under different assumptions.

ScenarioKey AssumptionsKey Outcomes / MetricsRisks & What Can Go Wrong
Bull Case• DoD / Aerospace demand accelerates (strong government spending, new contracts, favorable export policy, stable macro).
• Spin-offs (Solstice, Aerospace, Automation) occur cleanly, on time, with minimal drag and cost.
• Quantinuum makes meaningful progress commercially or via government funding; visible path to monetization.
• Cost, inflation, supply chain pressures well managed.
• Capital allocation strong: share buybacks, dividends, reinvestment in growth areas.
• Revenue CAGR ~7-9%; Aerospace/Defense & Solstice grow fastest (double digit or near).
• Margin expansion of +100-200 bps overall; some segments seeing high margin improvement.
• Free cash flow growth strong; yield + capital returns meaningful.
• Stock price appreciation + spin-off value realization: total return perhaps +30-60% over 2-4 years (including spin-off payouts, share price gains).
• Higher multiples rewarded (EV/EBITDA, P/E) for individual entities post-separation.
• Delays or cost overruns in spin-offs; regulatory / tax hurdles.
• Weak aerospace commercial demand (e.g. airlines cut orders, macro recession, supply chain bottlenecks).
• Margin squeeze from inflation, energy, labor, especially in advanced materials.
• Quantum tech (Quantinuum) may not commercialize quickly or may require more capital than expected.
• Interest rates stay high; borrowing / financing costs elevated; valuations compressed.
Base Case• DoD / Aerospace demand grows steadily but not spectacularly.
• Spin-offs largely successful but with modest friction; some segments underperform relative to expectations.
• Quantinuum contributes but remains somewhat speculative.
• Inflation / costs moderate; macro environment stable or mild headwinds.
• Revenue CAGR ~4-6%; some segments higher, others lower.
• Margins modest improvement, maybe +50–100 bps; some segments flat or mildly underperform.
• FCF growth steady; capital returns stable (dividends + some buybacks).
• Total return perhaps +10-30% over 2-4 years (stock appreciation + dividend + partial spin-off benefits).
• Market begins to recognize separated entities; valuation improvement but not full peer premium in all segments.
• Some margin pressure erodes gains.
• Spin-off costs / overhead burdens reduce net benefit.
• Aerospace commercial demand might soften, e.g. airline financials, fuel cost, macro recession.
• Geopolitical/trade/regulation could add friction.
• Quantum remains more R&D than profit for longer.
Bear Case• DoD / Aerospace spending growth slows (budget cuts, shifting priorities, geopolitical shifts).
• Spin-offs delayed, over-costed, or create inefficiencies/distractions.
• Quantinuum fails to monetize significantly; R&D cost burdens.
• Inflation / input cost rises sustained; supply chain issues persist.
• Recession or weak demand in industrial sectors; interest rates high.
• Revenue growth low or flat in some segments; possibly overall growth ~1-3%.
• Margin contraction in key segments; overall margin flat or down.
• Free cash flow growth weak or volatile; less capital for returns; possibly debt or financing pressures in spun-off entities.
• Stock price underperforms; total return low to negative (maybe -5% to +5%) over the period.
• Market discounts risks; spun-off entities may trade at lower valuation if unproven or underperforming.
• Unexpected cost shocks (energy, raw materials, regulatory, carbon / environmental compliance).
• Weakness in commercial aerospace (fuel, demand, financing).
• Quantum tech remains more cost than return; investors lose patience.
• Strategic missteps in spin-offs: loss of synergy, duplication of costs, loss of customers or workforce in reorg.

Investment Considerations

Here are additional practical considerations / red flags / questions you should investigate before investing:

  • Spin-Off Financials Visibility: Once Solstice and the separated units publish standalone numbers (revenues, margins, debt, capex), examine them carefully. Sometimes spun-off entities carry inherited issues or lower margins than expected.

  • Quantinuum Exposure: How much capital is needed? What’s the path to positive cash flow / meaningful revenues? What contracts / clients already in hand? Science-to-commercialization timelines are often long, with many technical and regulatory risks.

  • Backlog / Order Pipeline in Aerospace / Defense: For the Aerospace & Defense segment, look at the order book, backlog growth, renewal of government contracts, exposure to delays (e.g. due to supply chain, regulatory).

  • Regulatory / Environmental Risks: Advanced materials (Solstice) may face both upside from environmental regulation (e.g. refrigerants, low-GWP chemicals) and risk (liabilities, compliance, raw material constraints, geopolitical supply).

  • Interest Rates / Cost of Capital: The spin-offs and ongoing investments will require capital; higher interest rates increase cost. Also, share buybacks / dividend policy depend on free cash generation.

  • Valuation Floor: How low could this go if things go badly? What’s the downside risk? Is there a margin of safety in the current price?

  • Competition: Both in aerospace (other OEMs, suppliers), in materials (chemical, specialty materials competitors), in defense tech, and in quantum computing (other entrants, research labs, etc.).

  • Macro / Trade Risk: Exports, trade wars, tariffs, supply constraints, foreign regulatory risk.


Conclusion & Recommendation

Based on the above, here’s my view:

  • Using a 3- to 5-year time horizon, I’d lean towards investing in Honeywell, or starting a position, but not going all in immediately. The upside (particularly from Solstice, increased DoD / Aerospace demand, and quantum exposure) seems meaningful enough to justify exposure, provided you can tolerate some volatility and execution risk.

  • I’d set my expectations modestly: seize gains from spin-off execution and DoD tailwinds, but assume base case unless there is strong evidence (contracts, margin expansion, Quantinuum commercialization) that a bull case is unfolding.

  • I’d also watch carefully for signals: quarterly financials relative to guidance; how the spin-offs are progressing; whether Aerospace / Defense backlog and margin trends stay strong; any regulatory / cost surprises in materials or quantum.

  • If your risk tolerance is lower, or you need returns in <2 years, this is riskier: lot of moving parts (spin-offs, macro risk), and the market might not fully reward the separated entities immediately.

Saturday, September 20, 2025

"Infleqtion Quantum" The SPAC is back, and, I believe this one could be quite lucrative as this pioneer of Quantum Sensing Technology goes public!!

 


Here’s a retail-friendly investment/business snapshot of Infleqtion 

(going public via Churchill Capital Corp X – “CCCX”)

plus a quick peer check vs IONQ, D-Wave (QBTS), and Rigetti (RGTI).

Churchill Capital Corp X (CCCX)
$12.17
+$0.82(+7.29%)September 19

Infleqtion (ticker to be: INFQ after merger) — Retail Cheat Sheet

What Infleqtion is

Neutral-atom “full-stack” quantum company that sells precision sensors (clocks, RF, inertial/GPS-denied nav) and quantum computing systems, with software to tie it together. The SPAC deal values Infleqtion at ~$1.8B pre-money and aims to list as INFQ after closing. Reuters+1

Why now (deal basics & cash)

  • Transaction: Infleqtion to merge with CCCX; post-close ticker expected: INFQ (Nasdaq). Shareholder vote + SEC clearance required. SEC

  • Proceeds: “> $540M expected gross proceeds” (includes ~$416M trust, >$125M PIPE). Actual cash depends on redemptions. PIPE backers cited include Maverick Capital and Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global (plus others). Yahoo Finance+2The Quantum Insider+2

  • Use of funds: accelerate product roadmap, manufacturing scale-up, and go-to-market. The Quantum Insider

Commercial traction (what’s real today)

  • Revenue (TTM to Jun 30, 2025): ~$29M; 2025E booked & awarded business ~ $50M; identified pipeline > $300M (company figures; prelim/unaudited). Quantum Computing Report+1

  • Customers/partners called out: NASA, U.S. DoD, U.K. government, and NVIDIA among others. Nasdaq+1

  • Tech milestones (company-stated): neutral-atom platform with record qubit arrays, high two-qubit fidelities, early logical-qubit demos; sensors already shipped in volume (hundreds). The Quantum Insider

Institutional & transaction parties (high level)

  • PIPE investors (named in press/PR): Maverick Capital, Counterpoint Global (Morgan Stanley), plus Glynn Capital, BOKA Capital, LCP Quantum (per deal comms). The Quantum Insider

  • Advisors: Citi (capital markets advisor/PIPE placement), J.P. Morgan (advisor/PIPE), BTIG; multiple law firms. The Quantum Insider


How Infleqtion stacks up vs public quantum peers

CompanyCore tech & focusWhere $ comes from nowRecent scale markers
Infleqtion (INFQ, post-deal)Neutral atoms; sensing (clocks/RF/inertial) + computingGovernment/defense + enterprise; sells hardware & systems; softwareTTM rev ~$29M; booked/awarded ~$50M 2025E (company est.) Quantum Computing Report+1
IonQ (IONQ)Trapped-ion quantum computingCloud QPU access, services, systemsLarger public market cap today; raised significant capital; pure computing focus. (See investor deck comps.) Churchill Capital X Corp
D-Wave (QBTS)Quantum annealing (optimization), moving toward “advantage2”Cloud/hybrid annealing services; enterprise pilotsSmaller revenue base than Infleqtion per deck comps; meaningful enterprise logos. Churchill Capital X Corp
Rigetti (RGTI)Superconducting gate-modelCloud access, government R&D, systemsSimilar early-stage commercialization; comps show lower LTM revenue. Churchill Capital X Corp

Deck comparison slide shows Infleqtion LTM revenue ~$29M vs IONQ $52M, D-Wave $22M, Rigetti $8M as of 6/30/25 (company/FactSet notes; prelim and subject to change). Churchill Capital X Corp

Live trading context (today): IONQ ~$70, QBTS ~$27, RGTI ~$29, CCCX ~$12 (can be volatile around deal milestones). (Prices from the market feed above.)


Simple thesis (retail version)

Bull case (what could go right):

  • Quantum sensing has nearer-term use (GPS-denied nav, timing, RF) -> revenue earlier than pure computing. Government/defense demand is a strong tailwind. Nasdaq

  • Platform leverage: one neutral-atom “core” to serve both sensing + computing -> diversified revenue and cross-learning. The Quantum Insider

  • Capitalized via SPAC + PIPE to scale production and delivery. Yahoo Finance

Bear case (key risks):

  • De-SPAC risk: redemptions/dilution; post-merger selling pressure common in SPACs. SEC

  • Execution/SWaP-C: shrinking lab systems into rugged, cost-effective field units is hard; procurement cycles can be long. (Industry analyses flag manufacturability & adoption hurdles.) datacenterdynamics.com

  • Competition & valuation volatility across quantum names.


How to invest (plain English)

  1. Before the merger closes: buying CCCX common gives you exposure. If the deal closes and you do not redeem, your CCCX shares become INFQ automatically at closing. There will be a shareholder vote and a redemption window disclosed in the SEC S-4/proxy. SEC

  2. At/after conversion: ticker should switch to INFQ; trading can be volatile in the first weeks. SEC

  3. Position sizing (retail rule-of-thumb): treat as early-stage growth—size modestly (e.g., 0.5–2% of portfolio per name), add on execution catalysts (new contracts/shipments) rather than price spikes.

  4. Catalysts to watch: SEC S-4 effectiveness, shareholder vote, redemption results, first major shipment(s) of sensors/nav systems, new defense/space awards, computing milestones (logical-qubit progress). SEC+1


Bottom line (my take)

If you want nearer-term quantum exposure tilted to sensing + dual-track computing, Infleqtion offers a differentiated approach and real (if early) revenues vs peers. The risk is high (it’s still deep-tech + SPAC dynamics), but the setup is credible: named government customers, growing bookings, and fresh capital. For a diversified retail portfolio, a starter position held through the conversion—with eyes on redemption levels and first post-close execution—makes sense if you accept volatility and a multi-year horizon. Quantum Computing Report+2Yahoo Finance+2



Ed Note: How are we investing in Infleqtion?

We bought shares of CCCX @ $10.70 and plan to hold them through the conversion process.  

If, after conversion, there is a drop in share price of INFQ, we will be adding to our small position.(1.5%)

Sources & references

Saturday, August 16, 2025

If North American consolidation in the REE/Li market is in the cards, AVL looks to be a consolidation lottery ticket!

 

 

Avalon Advanced Materials (TSX: AVL)

Consolidation Driver in the North American REE & Lithium Markets

(Some penny stocks shouldn't be overlooked. I believe AVL is one of those)


1. Strategic Position in REEs

  • Nechalacho Project (NWT, Canada):

    • One of the most advanced REE deposits in North America.

    • 2013 DFS gave an after-tax NPV of ~USD $900M (~C$1.2B).

    • Contains both light and heavy REEs critical for defense, communications, and EV motors.

    • Currently split with Vital Metals (North T Zone) → clear consolidation target for a single operator.

  • AVL’s Basal Zone holds the majority of resources, positioning the company as a natural consolidator or takeover target.


2. Strategic Position in Lithium

https://www.vmcdn.ca/f/files/nob/avalon-advanced-materials-thunder-bay-site-sign-2.png%3Bw%3D960https://www.vmcdn.ca/f/files/nob/avalon-thunder-bay-site-placement-map.png%3Bw%3D960
  • Thunder Bay Lithium Hydroxide Facility (Ontario):

    • 2024 PEA showed C$4.1B after-tax NPV and 48% IRR.

    • Only planned midstream processing hub linking Ontario/Northern lithium deposits with Southern Ontario EV/battery manufacturing.

    • A rare “ready-made” piece of infrastructure for OEMs or lithium miners seeking to capture IRA credits.

  • Lithium Deposits: Separation Rapids (Kenora), Snowbank, and Lilypad → resource pipeline for Thunder Bay facility.


3. Why Avalon is a Consolidation Prize

  • Few companies combine REE + lithium assets in one portfolio.

  • AVL offers both upstream resources (REEs, lithium deposits) and midstream processing (Thunder Bay).

  • Consolidating AVL allows a buyer to secure:

    • Long-life REE supply (Nechalacho).

    • A North American lithium hydroxide plant.

    • Eligibility for U.S./Canadian government incentives under the IRA and Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy.


4. Potential Suitors & Rationale

  • Critical Metals (CRML): Synergy with Tanbreez (Greenland); cross-Atlantic REE strategy.

  • Vital Metals (VML): Logical consolidator of Nechalacho (eliminate split ownership).

  • MP Materials (MP): U.S. REE giant; Avalon secures Canadian REE + lithium foothold.

  • Lynas Rare Earths (LYC): Expansion into North America to diversify from Australia.

  • Lithium Americas / Piedmont Lithium: Thunder Bay plant is the missing midstream link.

  • Tesla, GM, Ford: Direct EV/battery makers securing feedstock & processing capacity.


5. Buyout Valuation & Escalation Potential

  • Current Market Cap: ~C$22–25M (@ ~C$0.04/share).

  • Risk-adjusted strategic value: ~C$300–600M (C$0.50–0.85/share).

  • Likely opening bid: ~C$1/share (~C$637M).

  • If multiple suitors compete: Escalation toward C$1.75–2.10/share (~C$1.1–1.3B).

  • Extreme scenario (Tesla/MP with gov’t backing): Possible bid north of C$2/share if Thunder Bay DFS confirms economics + IRA/Defense contracts lock in demand.


6. Investment Thesis

  • Underappreciated value: Market assigns only ~C$25M to assets with multi-billion NPVs.

  • Strategic location: Canada = politically secure jurisdiction, aligned with U.S. supply-chain policies.

  • Consolidation catalyst: Split ownership at Nechalacho and fragmented lithium supply chain make AVL a natural acquisition target.

  • Bidding war potential: With REE + lithium both on the strategic critical list, more than one suitor is almost inevitable.


Conclusion

Avalon (AVL) is grossly undervalued relative to its assets. From a consolidation standpoint, it represents one of the few opportunities for REE and lithium players to secure a vertically integrated North American platform.

  • Entry today (~C$0.04/share) offers exposure to a potential 25×–50× re-rating if a takeover unfolds.

  • A realistic acquisition could settle around C$1–1.25/share, with upside to C$2/share in a competitive bidding war.


👉 In short: AVL is a textbook “strategic consolidation play” in the REE market, with built-in lithium upside. The mismatch between current valuation and strategic value makes it highly attractive for patient investors — and a natural spark for a bidding war.


The three most likely suitors (MP Materials, Lynas, and CRML) would gain by acquiring Avalon Advanced Materials (AVL), and that could push bidding toward the C$2/share mark.


Takeover Case Comparison: Who Benefits Most from Buying Avalon (AVL)?


1. MP Materials (NYSE: MP)

Profile: Largest U.S. REE producer (Mountain Pass, California), backed by U.S. defense and IRA policies.

What They Gain From AVL:

  • Nechalacho REE deposit: Adds a second North American REE source, diversifying away from Mountain Pass.

  • Thunder Bay lithium hydroxide facility: Midstream processing capacity in Canada → critical for EV battery OEM contracts.

  • Canadian footprint: Strengthens IRA eligibility and helps qualify U.S. automakers for mineral sourcing credits.

  • Geopolitical leverage: Control over both U.S. and Canadian REEs makes MP the undisputed North American champion.

Why They Might Pay Up:

  • MP has the balance sheet (US$5B+ market cap) and political support to pay C$1.50–2.00/share for AVL if it locks out Lynas or CRML and secures Canada as a “REE & lithium fortress.”


2. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

Profile: World’s largest REE producer outside China (Mount Weld mine, Australia), with Japanese government support.

What They Gain From AVL:

  • Nechalacho REE deposit: A second production center outside Australia → diversification + North America expansion.

  • Thunder Bay facility: Processing hub ties them into the EV battery value chain — an area where Lynas currently lacks direct presence.

  • Strategic partnerships: Japanese offtakers (Toyota, Sojitz, JOGMEC) could be extended into Canada.

  • Geopolitical insurance: A hedge against China disruptions and over-reliance on Australia/Malaysia operations.

Why They Might Pay Up:

  • Lynas is under pressure to expand capacity in Western-friendly jurisdictions.

  • Could justify C$1.25–1.75/share, possibly more if MP enters the bidding.


3. Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML)

Profile: Developer of the Tanbreez REE project in Greenland, currently advancing a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS).

What They Gain From AVL:

  • Nechalacho REE deposit: Complements Tanbreez, giving CRML two of the world’s largest non-China REE resources.

  • Thunder Bay facility: Instant midstream processing — CRML’s missing piece for vertical integration.

  • Lithium exposure: Expands portfolio beyond REEs, adding lithium hydroxide production → higher relevance to EV/battery markets.

  • U.S./Canadian critical minerals politics: Strengthens case for DOE/DoD funding, partnerships, and offtake deals.

Why They Might Pay Up:

  • CRML is smaller than MP or Lynas, so financing a C$1–2/share bid would require partnerships or equity raises.

  • But the strategic synergy is enormous — owning both Tanbreez and Nechalacho could make CRML a takeover target itself later.

  • Likely to bid in the C$1.00–1.25/share range, but might stretch higher if MP/Lynas enter the fight.


Who Would Push the Bidding War Toward $2?

  • MP Materials: Most likely, because of financial capacity and U.S. strategic interest.

  • Tesla or GM/Ford (dark horses): If they step in for vertical integration and secure lithium hydroxide, they could shock the market with a C$2+ bid.

  • Lynas: Would bid aggressively if threatened by MP’s Canadian expansion.

  • CRML: May trigger the bidding, but less likely to win against giants without financial partners.


Investment Takeaway

  • AVL’s unique REE + lithium + midstream combo makes it the only Canadian consolidator play with immediate strategic relevance.

  • Base case: Takeover at C$1–1.25/share (C$637M–800M).

  • Bidding war case: Escalation to C$1.75–2.00/share (~C$1.1–1.3B).

  • Extreme upside: If OEMs or governments step in, C$2.50–3.00/share is possible, though less likely until DFS updates are complete.


👉 This is why AVL at ~C$0.04 today looks like a consolidation lottery ticket



the downside is limited, but the upside is multiples higher if a bidding war ignites

Ed Note: Disclosure: We've been acquiring shares in AVL UCU CRML

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REEs are critical to all cutting edge technologies now and early investors should be rewarded! We just took a small position in our 4th REE stock-CRML