Humanoids and robotics (2026+) — market potential, reality checks, and the best-positioned public companies for retail investors!
Executive summary
Humanoid robotics is moving from “AI demos” to early industrial pilots, but the investable opportunity set for public-market retail investors still skews toward enablers and bottleneck suppliers (actuation, precision gearing, sensors/analog, and critical materials) rather than pure-play humanoid OEMs (many are private). The market’s ceiling could be very large, but credible forecasts vary widely—reflecting real uncertainty around unit economics, reliability, safety, and throughput.
Recent institutional research/media coverage frames the humanoid opportunity as potentially large (e.g., Barclays’ optimistic scenario suggests ~$200B by 2035), while other reputable forecasts are far more conservative (e.g., Goldman Sachs projecting ~$38B by 2035).
1) Market size: a wide range is the honest answer
Forecasts differ substantially because commercialization hinges on three variables that are still unproven at scale:
Robot cost trajectory (BOM + manufacturing yield + warranty)
Task productivity (cycle times, failure modes, autonomy level)
Operating model (deployment, monitoring, maintenance, safety compliance)
Examples of the spread:
Goldman Sachs (Feb 2024): humanoid TAM projected at ~$38B by 2035.
Barclays (reported Jan 2026): an optimistic scenario as high as ~$200B by 2035.
ABI Research (2025 chart/data): humanoids “essentially non-existent” today, but forecasts ~$6.5B by 2030 (with very high growth assumptions).
Grand View Research: $1.55B (2024) → ~$4.04B (2030) (more modest CAGR).
Investor implication:
This is a classic “big upside, high model risk” market.
It rewards owning the picks-and-shovels that get pulled forward even if humanoid adoption is slower than hype.
2) What is actually happening now (signal vs. noise)
The most credible near-term demand is industrial and logistics pilots where:
tasks are repetitive,
environments are semi-structured,
ROI can be measured,
supervision is acceptable early.
Evidence of real pilot activity:
BMW + Figure: BMW publicly described testing humanoids in production for ergonomically difficult tasks (2024).
Figure updates highlight operational learnings from BMW deployments (company statements).
Mercedes-Benz + Apptronik: Reuters reported Mercedes taking a stake and testing humanoid robots in factories (2025).
Amazon + Agility Robotics (Digit): Amazon described Digit as part of its robotics initiatives; Agility stated deliveries to partner-program customers in 2024 and broader availability in 2025.
Reality check: “Mass production in 2026” headlines exist (e.g., some OEM statements), but the market should assume limited volumes first, with scaling gated by reliability and cost.
3) Where the money is likely to accrue first
For public-market investors, the best risk-adjusted exposure is usually in components with:
high switching costs (qualification + reliability),
structural scarcity (capacity-constrained suppliers),
cross-OEM demand (everyone needs the same parts).
The four bottlenecks that matter most
Actuators & motion (motors + drives + mechanical integration)
Precision gearing/reducers (strain-wave / RV)
Sensors + analog/power (the “nervous system”)
Rare-earth magnets/materials (NdPr → high-performance motors)
4) “Best positioned to grow and prosper”: top public-company shortlist (retail-investor accessible)
Below are five names I would prioritize for a Canadian or U.S. retail investor seeking the “supplier-first” humanoid/robotics thesis, with an emphasis on “under-the-radar” relative to megacap OEMs.
1) Schaeffler (Germany; often accessible via international brokerage / ADR depending on platform)
Why it fits: Schaeffler is explicitly positioning as a humanoid component supplier, focusing on key components like actuators and announcing multiple humanoid-related initiatives and partnerships.
Why it’s attractive for your scenario: Direct “picks-and-shovels” posture for humanoids, but backed by a broader industrial/mechatronics base.
2) Nabtesco (Japan; often accessible via international brokerage)
Why it fits: Precision reducers are a gating item in high-DOF robots. Nabtesco states it has ~60% share (company estimate) in precision reduction gears for medium-to-large industrial robot joints.
Why it matters: If humanoids scale, demand for compact, high-torque, low-backlash joints scales with it—often faster than OEM unit growth.
3) Harmonic Drive Systems (Japan; sometimes available OTC depending on broker)
Why it fits: Strain-wave gearing is foundational for compact humanoid joints. Harmonic Drive has invested to expand capacity historically (illustrative of demand pressure).
Why it matters: In many humanoid designs, the reducer is a cost and availability bottleneck.
4) MP Materials (NYSE: MP)
Why it fits: Rare-earth magnets are strategic and supply-constrained. MP has a major DoD-backed buildout plan including a second U.S. magnet facility (“10X Facility”) expected to begin commissioning in 2028, plus other downstream steps to expand domestic supply.
Why it matters: Humanoids are “motor-heavy.” If unit volumes rise, the magnet/motor supply chain becomes an enabling constraint, not an afterthought.
5) Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN)
Why it fits: Robots are, at scale, an analog/power and motor-control story as much as an AI story. TI is a long-cycle supplier of analog, power management, and embedded control components that appear across industrial automation and robotics. (This is the “quiet compounder” category.)
Why it matters: Even if humanoids take longer, robotics in general (industrial automation) continues to consume these components.
5) A practical “Humanoid + Robotics” watchlist map (so you can expand beyond the top five)
If you want a deeper bench to follow, here’s how I would structure it:
A) Mechanical bottlenecks (high leverage to humanoid scaling)
Nabtesco (precision reducers)
Harmonic Drive Systems (strain-wave gears)
Schaeffler (actuators / humanoid components)
B) Materials constraint / geopolitics
MP Materials (NdPr / magnets supply chain buildout)
C) Robotics “nervous system”
Texas Instruments (analog/power/control)
Analog Devices / onsemi / STMicro (similar thesis: sensing + power + industrial IO)
D) OEM activity (watch for proof of volume, but don’t rely on it)
Tesla Optimus timelines and commentary can move sentiment, but execution is uncertain.
Automotive factories remain a credible first beachhead (BMW/Figure; Mercedes/Apptronik).
6) Key risks retail investors should underwrite
Adoption takes longer than headlines imply (safety, uptime, maintenance)
Unit economics disappoint (BOM cost vs. task productivity)
Component commoditization (if supply expands quickly and pricing power fades)
Policy/geopolitics (rare earths, export controls, onshoring)
Valuation risk (many robotics-adjacent names can get “theme-priced”)
7) What I would monitor quarterly (simple retail checklist)
Pilot-to-rollout conversions: Are pilots turning into multi-site deployments? (BMW/Figure-type updates)
Component capacity expansions: reducer/gear output, actuator supply agreements, magnet capacity milestones
Cost-down evidence: BOM reductions and service/warranty experience
Regulatory & safety posture: workplace deployment standards, incident rates
OEM “real work” metrics: hours run, tasks completed, supervised autonomy trends (when disclosed)
Bottom line
For a Canadian/U.S. retail investor who wants “humanoids + robotics” exposure without betting on which humanoid brand wins, the strongest setup is a basket centered on:
Schaeffler + Nabtesco + Harmonic Drive (mechanical bottlenecks),
MP Materials (materials constraint),
Texas Instruments (control/power backbone).Humanoids + robotics: U.S./TSX-only “under-the-radar” supplier exposure (retail investor report)
Why suppliers can be the cleaner bet than humanoid OEMs
Humanoids may become a major end-market, but near-term commercialization is still likely to be pilot-heavy and volume-light versus the hype cycle. In that environment, the best public-market risk/reward often sits with picks-and-shovels suppliers that benefit from robotics broadly (industrial automation, mobile robots, warehouse systems) while retaining upside if humanoids scale.
The most “unavoidable” supplier bottlenecks across most humanoid designs are:
Actuation + motion control (motors, drives, servo loops)
Sensing (vision, depth, inertial, force/torque, safety sensing)
Power conversion (battery management, motor drivers, DC/DC)
Materials (especially rare-earth magnets for high-torque motors)
Below are five U.S./TSX-listed names I would prioritize to follow and/or consider for this “supplier-first humanoids” thesis, emphasizing companies that are not the obvious mega-cap humanoid headlines.
5 companies (U.S./TSX-only)
1) MP Materials (NYSE: MP) — rare-earth magnets: a motors-and-actuators constraint
What it supplies: NdPr materials and a U.S.-centric rare-earth/magnet supply chain buildout.
Why it fits humanoids: Humanoids are “motor-dense.” If unit volumes scale, magnet availability and geopolitics can become a gating factor.
What makes it investable now: MP has a major U.S. Department of Defense public-private partnership that includes (as reported) a 10-year price floor for NdPr and a 10-year offtake commitment tied to its planned “10X Facility,” with operations expected by 2028.
Key risks: commodity/price volatility, execution on downstream magnet capacity, political/regulatory risk.
2) Onsemi (NASDAQ: ON) — “robotics nervous system”: sensing + power + motor control
What it supplies: Industrial automation/robotics-facing portfolios in intelligent power, image sensing, and motor control—critical building blocks in robots of all types. onsemi explicitly positions offerings for robotics/industrial automation and “smart and mobile robotics” use cases.
Why it fits humanoids: Regardless of the robot brand, you need robust power electronics, sensing, and motor drive/control to run many joints safely and efficiently.
Key risks: cyclical semiconductor demand, competitive pressure, customer concentration in some end-markets.
3) Moog (NYSE: MOG.A / MOG.B) — motion control components that translate to advanced robotics
What it supplies: Precision motion components (e.g., motors and motion subsystems) that Moog markets directly for robotics, including performance-oriented motor solutions and broader “robotics and autonomous solutions” positioning.
Why it fits humanoids: Humanoids are essentially a stack of tightly coordinated motion axes. Suppliers with deep “hard-motion” engineering and reliability culture can see pull-through demand as robotics moves from demo to uptime-driven deployments.
Why it’s “under-followed”: It is not typically the first name retail investors associate with humanoids, despite direct robotics positioning.
Key risks: industrial cycle sensitivity; Moog is diversified—robotics may be a smaller slice.
4) Celestica (TSX: CLS / NYSE: CLS) — scaling hardware: manufacturing, robotics-capital equipment, and “physical AI” infrastructure
What it supplies: End-to-end design/manufacturing and supply-chain solutions with meaningful exposure to industrial/capital equipment and other complex hardware verticals; Celestica’s own materials highlight “Robotics and Automated Capital Equipment Solutions.”
Why it fits humanoids: If humanoids start scaling, the winners are not only the designers; they are also the companies that can manufacture complex electromechanical systems reliably and at cost. Celestica is a credible “scaling enabler” rather than a single-OEM bet.
Key risks: margin discipline in manufacturing services, customer concentration, the robotics linkage is more “enabling” than direct component IP.
5) Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) — the quiet backbone: analog + embedded for industrial automation and robotics
What it supplies: Analog and embedded components used across industrial automation; TI explicitly frames building “smarter, safer robotics” within its industrial automation resources.
Why it fits humanoids: The scaling of robots is not only an AI story; it is a power + sensing + control-loop story. TI benefits from broad robotics/automation growth even if humanoids take longer than expected.
Key risks: cyclical industrial demand; lower “humanoid purity” (but higher resilience).
How I would use these as a retail investor (practical approach)
A) Build a “supplier basket” instead of a single bet
Materials constraint: MP
Power/sensing platform: onsemi + TI
High-performance motion: Moog
Scaling/manufacturing enabler: Celestica
This creates exposure to multiple points of the humanoid BOM and scaling chain, while still benefiting from robotics/automation generally.
B) What to monitor (quarterly checklist)
Evidence of scaling: multi-site deployments, not just pilots (OEM-agnostic signal)
Component tightness: commentary around motor supply, magnets, power electronics lead times
Cost-down progress: any credible “cost per robot” declines or simplified actuator designs
Safety + uptime: incidents, warranty, and maintainability disclosures (rare but important)
Capex milestones: especially MP’s magnet buildout timeline and downstream execution
Clear-eyed risks (what can go wrong)
Humanoids under-deliver on ROI versus simpler automation (cobots, AMRs) and adoption is slower
Component commoditization if supply ramps quickly (reducing pricing power)
Theme valuations compress even if fundamentals improve
Geopolitical shock (rare earths, export controls) can be both a tailwind and a volatility driver
Bottom line (U.S./TSX-only)
If your objective is “humanoids upside, but with supplier resilience,” my top U.S./TSX-only set to follow/investigate first is:
MP (materials bottleneck) + onsemi (sensing/power) + TI (control backbone) + Moog (motion) + Celestica (scale/manufacturing enabler).
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Below is a U.S./TSX-only model portfolio framework designed for retail investors who want exposure to humanoids and robotics via suppliers, not just robot OEMs.
The portfolios use the same five names, but weight them differently depending on whether the goal is capital preservation with theme participation (Conservative) or maximum thematic torque (Aggressive).
Universe (unchanged across both models):
MP – MP Materials (rare-earth magnets; motors & actuators bottleneck)
ON – onsemi (power electronics, sensors, motor control)
TXN – Texas Instruments (analog & embedded “robot nervous system”)
MOG.A / MOG.B – Moog (precision motion & robotics components)
CLS (TSX/NYSE) – Celestica (hardware scaling & robotics-capital equipment enabler)
$25,000 Portfolio
Conservative Model
Focus: resilience, cash flow, and exposure to robotics even if humanoids take longer
| Rank | Company | Weight | Allocation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Instruments (TXN) | 30% | $7,500 |
| 2 | onsemi (ON) | 25% | $6,250 |
| 3 | Celestica (CLS) | 20% | $5,000 |
| 4 | Moog (MOG.A/B) | 15% | $3,750 |
| 5 | MP Materials (MP) | 10% | $2,500 |
| Total | 100% | $25,000 |
Profile:
TXN and ON anchor the portfolio with durable industrial cash flows.
CLS gives “physical AI” scaling exposure without single-OEM risk.
Moog adds motion leverage.
MP is the asymmetric tail option if humanoids/motors scale rapidly.
Risk Character:
Low-to-moderate volatility; theme exposure without over-reliance on speculative adoption curves.
Aggressive Model
Focus: torque to humanoid adoption and supply-chain bottlenecks
| Rank | Company | Weight | Allocation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP Materials (MP) | 30% | $7,500 |
| 2 | Onsemi (ON) | 25% | $6,250 |
| 3 | Moog (MOG.A/B) | 20% | $5,000 |
| 4 | Celestica (CLS) | 15% | $3,750 |
| 5 | Texas Instruments (TXN) | 10% | $2,500 |
| Total | 100% | $25,000 |
Profile:
MP becomes the core thesis expression (motors = magnets).
ON and Moog concentrate exposure to actuation, sensing, and control.
TXN becomes ballast rather than anchor.
Risk Character:
Higher volatility; returns more sensitive to humanoid headlines, magnet policy, and robotics CAPEX cycles.
$50,000 Portfolio
Conservative Model
| Rank | Company | Weight | Allocation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Instruments (TXN) | 30% | $15,000 |
| 2 | onsemi (ON) | 25% | $12,500 |
| 3 | Celestica (CLS) | 20% | $10,000 |
| 4 | Moog (MOG.A/B) | 15% | $7,500 |
| 5 | MP Materials (MP) | 10% | $5,000 |
| Total | 100% | $50,000 |
Aggressive Model
| Rank | Company | Weight | Allocation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP Materials (MP) | 30% | $15,000 |
| 2 | onsemi (ON) | 25% | $12,500 |
| 3 | Moog (MOG.A/B) | 20% | $10,000 |
| 4 | Celestica (CLS) | 15% | $7,500 |
| 5 | Texas Instruments (TXN) | 10% | $5,000 |
| Total | 100% | $50,000 |
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