The "destruction of trust" has grave consequences!

 

"Trust" is "the foundation" of financial systems, and, indeed, all social systems everywhere!

The current President knows full well how untrustworthy he is and cannot function in a world where "trust" is the cornerstone of society!

(between people, agencies, businesses or countries)

He sees all financial agreements as a "zero sum game" where, if the deal is good for the other side, then it must be coming out of his pocket!

He has never really learned that, any "good" business deal, must be good for "both sides"!

He has systemically taught a large segment of fellow Americans to not trust their neighbors if they don't vote for him, not trust their own Government, not trust Government institutions that organize healthcare, education, border security, immigration etc.!

He has manufactured Americans mistrust of each other, their elected officials in Congress and the Senate. He verbally attacks the Courts which have upheld the laws of the country for millennia. He is currently attacking the FED chairman (which he appointed)

He has taught many not to trust immigrants, labelling all as evil, and has actually asked another country to build 4 more "concentration camp" jails to house more people which he will send them, including American citizens.

Now he is teaching America's allies that they cannot trust America as a partner nor trust what he himself has already signed into law as he launches a barrage of tariff's in their direction. They now know instinctively, that he cannot be trusted to uphold previous treaties (NATO) in future.

The markets and market makers are only now coming understand this!

We are all on a path to the total destruction of trust, and it is an existential threat to our way of life, and ominously, peace in the world as many countries are building up armaments now! It doesn't have to be!

The U.S. "dollar" is arguably, the "last bastion of trust" in the world as even enemies will accept it as payment for goods or services. If that trust is lost, then what next?

If the U.S. bond market continues to reveal that "trust" of the reserve currency is weakening, or being lost, then all bets are off.

It becomes a new world of uncertainty and mistrust,

eerily and ominously similar to the 1930s

(Ed Note: This article reflects my own opinions and was not written with the help of AI as are my other posts!)

Agnico Eagle Gold is a top 3 Gold miner on the world stage now, and, it's still growing!

“A Gold Mine of Pharmaceutical Royalties” Royalty Pharma - RPRX

Royalty Pharma (NASDAQ: RPRX) is popping in 2025! There are reasons for that as markets swoon!

Energy stocks - Why we bought Cenovus (CVE) on the TSX

 

Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX: CVE) (NYSE: CVE) is a prominent Canadian integrated oil and natural gas company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. The company is engaged in various operations, including oil sands projects, conventional oil and gas production, refining, and transportation.

Production Facilities and Resources

• Oil Sands Operations: Cenovus operates several oil sands projects in Alberta, utilizing steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology. Key projects include Foster Creek, Christina Lake, and Sunrise. In May 2017, Cenovus acquired full ownership of the Foster Creek and Christina Lake projects. In June 2022, the company assumed full ownership of the Sunrise oil sands asset by acquiring the remaining 50% interest from BP Canada.

  en.wikipedia.org

• Conventional Oil and Gas: Cenovus's conventional assets are primarily located in Western Canada, including the Deep Basin—a liquids-rich natural gas region spanning northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia. In November 2020, Cenovus sold its Marten Hills assets to Headwater Exploration Inc.

  en.wikipedia.org

• Refining and Upgrading: Following the acquisition of Husky Energy in January 2021, Cenovus became one of Canada's largest refiners. The company owns refineries in Lima, Ohio; Superior, Wisconsin; and Lloydminster, Alberta. Additionally, Cenovus holds a 50% ownership in refineries located in Wood River, Illinois, and Borger, Texas, through a joint venture with Phillips 66. In August 2022, Cenovus agreed to acquire BP's 50% interest in the BP-Husky Toledo Refinery in Ohio, assuming full ownership.

  en.wikipedia.org

Partners and Customers

Cenovus collaborates with various partners across its operations. The company has a joint venture with Phillips 66 for the Wood River and Borger refineries. Additionally, Cenovus supplies products to a diverse customer base, including wholesale and retail fuel markets, as well as petrochemical industries.

Financial Performance

In 2024, Cenovus reported cash from operating activities of $9.2 billion, an increase from $7.4 billion in 2023. Adjusted funds flow for 2024 was $8.2 billion, with free funds flow of $3.1 billion. Total capital investment for the year amounted to $5.0 billion, primarily directed towards sustaining production and advancing growth projects.

cenovus.com

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company generated over $2.0 billion in cash from operating activities, $1.6 billion in adjusted funds flow, and $123 million in free funds flow. Net earnings for the quarter were $146 million. Total upstream production averaged 816,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), with oil sands production reaching a record 628,500 BOE/d. Downstream operations reported a crude throughput of 666,700 barrels per day, representing a utilization rate of 93%.

cenovus.com

Cash Reserves and Capital Allocation

As of December 31, 2024, Cenovus maintained a strong financial position, enabling continued investment in sustaining and growth capital. The company's 2025 capital budget is set between $4.6 billion and $5.0 billion, with approximately $3.2 billion allocated for sustaining capital and up to $1.8 billion for growth projects. This disciplined capital plan supports shareholder returns and maintains net debt near $4.0 billion.

cenovus.com

Market Performance

As of February 28, 2025, Cenovus Energy Inc. (NYSE: CVE) shares are trading at $13.715 USD, reflecting the company's stable market presence.

Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE)

Key Metrics

---

Open13.67

Day Range13.50 - 13.80

52 Week Range13.73 - 21.90

Volume960.9K

Recent Developments

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Cenovus experienced a decline in net income to C$146 million from C$743 million in the same period the previous year. This decrease was attributed to lower commodity prices and weaker refining margins, despite an increase in production. Total upstream production rose slightly to 816,000 BOE/d, and refining throughput increased to 666,700 barrels per day.

reuters.com

Overall, Cenovus Energy Inc. continues to demonstrate resilience through its integrated operations, strategic investments, and commitment to financial discipline, positioning itself for sustained growth in the evolving energy sector.

Cenovus Energy (CVE) benefits from the currency exchange dynamics between the Canadian dollar (CAD) and U.S. dollar (USD). Since extraction and operational costs are primarily incurred in CAD, while revenues from oil and gas sales are largely earned in USD, a weaker CAD relative to USD enhances Cenovus's profitability in several ways:

1. Currency Advantage on Revenues

• Crude oil and natural gas prices are typically denominated in U.S. dollars on global markets.
• A weaker Canadian dollar means that when Cenovus converts its USD revenues into CAD, it receives more Canadian dollars per USD earned, boosting its overall revenue in local currency terms.

2. Lower Relative Operating Costs

• Since Cenovus incurs many of its expenses (labor, equipment, operational costs) in CAD, a weaker CAD means these costs remain relatively lower compared to USD-denominated revenue.
• This helps maintain higher profit margins, particularly during periods of weaker oil prices.

3. Enhanced Free Cash Flow and Dividend Potential

• Stronger cash flows due to currency tailwinds allow Cenovus to:
  • Reduce debt more efficiently.
  • Increase capital expenditures for growth projects.
  • Boost dividends or share buybacks to return value to shareholders.

4. Competitive Export Advantage

• Canadian oil sands producers like Cenovus export a large portion of their crude to U.S. refineries.
• When the CAD is weaker, it makes Canadian crude cheaper for U.S. buyers in USD terms, potentially increasing demand for Cenovus’s exports.

5. Hedging Strategy

• Many energy companies hedge currency risks, but even with hedging, a persistently weak CAD benefits Cenovus’s bottom line.

Current Market Conditions

• The Canadian dollar has been relatively weak against the U.S. dollar in early 2025 due to:
  • Interest rate differentials (U.S. Fed maintaining higher rates).
  • Global oil price fluctuations.
  • Slower Canadian economic growth.
• If the CAD remains weak, Cenovus's profitability should be stronger than it would be in a strong CAD environment.

Conclusion

The current CAD-to-USD exchange rate environment is a positive factor for Cenovus. As long as oil and gas prices remain stable or increase, Cenovus should see continued financial strength, stronger free cash flow, and potentially better stock performance compared to companies operating in markets where both costs and revenues are USD-based.