Intel this year looks to me like the Blackberry Stock of 20 years ago!

 

I believe that, my analogy (to BlackBerry) is useful: 

Something that was once dominant, lost its footing, and then struggled to adapt

For Intel there are real warning signs.

1. Lost leadership in foundry / logic
   Intel has ceded manufacturing leadership to TSMC and Samsung in advanced nodes. Its delays, yield problems, and missteps eroded competitive advantage.

2. Execution risk is high
   Reviving a foundry business with new process nodes, scaling fab expansion, controlling costs, and securing customers is extremely difficult — many have tried and failed.

3. Financial pressure
   The company has had losses, heavy capital expenditure burdens, and the need to service debt and fund new fabs puts margin stress.

4. Dependence on government / subsidies
   A large part of the current “tailwinds” is from government support (CHIPS Act, grants, equity infusion). That introduces political risk, uncertainty, and potential distortions. The $8.9B U.S. government investment for a ~9.9% stake is a key signal. Newsroom+1

5. Unclear path to dominance
   Even with new fabs and subsidies, there’s no guarantee that Intel can win back major customers (like Apple, AMD, NVIDIA, etc.) or regain logic/advanced node prestige.

6. Market expectations may already be rich / too optimistic
   The recent jump in stock price might already embed bullish expectations of successful turnaround, leaving little margin for error.

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Why I don't own, and would not short Intel at this time!

What works against a pure “short / dead cat bounce” thesis

There are also significant counterarguments and asymmetric upside risks that caution against overly pessimistic positioning.

1. Strong government backing
   The U.S. government is actively supporting Intel both via grants and equity. That tends to reduce downside—governments tend to avoid letting big “strategic” players fail outright. The government ownership is passive (no board seats) per announcements. GovCon Wire+1

2. Strategic importance & political protection
   Semiconductor sovereignty is a national-security issue. Intel as one of the last large U.S.-based advanced logic players has a “too big to fail / too strategically important to let collapse” angle. That could lead to further policy support, protection, or bailouts if things go badly.

3. Recent partnerships and capital infusions
   For example, NVIDIA invested ~$5B in Intel in 2025, which is a vote of confidence (or at least strategic alignment) in Intel’s roadmap. WIRED+2Barron's+2

4. Turnaround upside if execution works
   If Intel can deliver new process nodes, yields, win foundry customers, and scale better, the upside is large — the stock could re-rate. The current valuation likely discounts that, meaning a good outcome could yield significant gains.

5. Volatility / mispricing opportunities
   In a turnaround/restructuring scenario, the stock may swing wildly, making timing critical (shorts can be punished in big rebounds).

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Recent stock dynamics & valuation

Intel Corp. (INTC)

$36.37

+$19.02(+109.63%)Max

$35.65-$0.72(-1.98%)Open38.50

Volume183.1M

Day Low33.96

Day High39.63

Year Low17.67

Year High39.65

• The current share price is showing volatility, which is typical in “recovery / turnaround” stories.

• Analysts recently downgraded the stock, warning that recent rallies may be overdone. Barron's

• The recent run-up has been partly driven by announcements of government and strategic investments, which may reflect sentiment more than fundamentals. (A 4th "Dead Cat" bounce)

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My view: cautious, but not a full “short first” conviction

Healthy skepticism is in order here. Intel is not yet out of the woods, and structural risks are real. But I’m more nuanced in my assessment:

• I wouldn’t place a large, unhedged short as a default — the potential for a positive surprise (or political/strategic lifeline) is real. (Or another "dead cat" bounce)

• If I were to take a short position, I’d structure it with tight risk controls (stop losses, hedges) and treat it as a tactical play rather than a belief that Intel is irrecoverable.

• I’m more comfortable holding a bearish option strategy (e.g. long put or put spread) to limit downside and preserve upside optionality, rather than a naked short.

Intel's "Tell"!
To me, Intel looks a lot like Blackberry Stock of 20 years ago.
Deadcat bounce after deadcat bounce until 90% disappeared!

I believe my analogy (to BlackBerry) is useful:  

I wouldn't touch this stock with your 10 ft pole!!!