Cabaletta Bio (CABA) as of October 3, 2025 — Added to position!
(Ed Note: As I've said before, some penny stocks should not be overlooked - CABA is one of those)
Using the latest financials, ownership, analyst targets, and pipeline status here's the review.
✅ Reasons to Keep Adding
1. Institutional support is strong
-
Bain, Adage, Alyeska, Jennison, Cormorant and others each hold 5–10% stakes. These aren’t casual positions; they’re sophisticated biotech funds that are often early to clinical-stage winners.
-
Heavy crossover investor involvement means better access to capital markets when CABA next raises funds.
2. Solid financial runway (for now)
-
~$195M cash (as of June 30, 2025), runway into 2H 2026. That buys them time to generate pivotal registrational data before another raise.
3. Clinical progress is de-risking
-
At EULAR 2025, 7/8 myositis patients showed strong improvements (TIS responses, off immunomodulators).
-
FDA alignment for a 2027 BLA in myositis gives a visible regulatory path.
4. Analyst upside remains significant
-
Consensus price targets: $11–$15 (some as high as $22–25), versus current ~$2.
-
Analysts are modeling hundreds of percent upside if trials continue to track positively.
5. Takeover potential
-
If registrational cohorts replicate early efficacy, CABA is a prime target for AbbVie, J&J, Novartis, Gilead, or Roche — all looking at autoimmune CAR-T.
-
A buyout before or after pivotal data isn’t far-fetched.
⚠️ Reasons to Be Cautious
1. Cash burn is steep
-
Q2’25 R&D was ~$37.6M; expenses are climbing as registrational trials expand. They will likely raise again before approval, leading to dilution.
2. Execution risk
-
Autologous CAR-T is complex. Manufacturing at scale (via Lonza & Oxford Biomedica) is unproven in autoimmune vs oncology. Delays or CMC issues could derail timelines.
3. Safety watch
-
One lupus nephritis patient had a Grade 4 ICANS event previously (resolved, but a reminder). Larger N could surface new safety issues.
4. Option repricing optics
-
Management repriced insider options down to $1.92 in May 2025. This aligns incentives but some investors view it as “shareholder unfriendly.”
5. Long road to revenue
-
No approved products. Even in the bull case, first revenues come post-2027. Near-term, this is a binary pipeline play.
🎯 Balanced Take
-
If you're risk-tolerant and comfortable with clinical-stage biotech volatility, adding here is a speculative bet with very high upside.
The current price (~$2) is well below analyst consensus ($11–15), and institutional buying in August suggests smart money is still leaning bullish.
-
If you want stability, remember this is still all-or-nothing science. One bad dataset could crater the stock. You may want to size your position carefully, treat it as a satellite/speculative play, as we have and be ready for dilution. Here are previous articles on CABA!
Been adding to CABA Bio stock this month. Here's why!
Will the New developments from Cabaletto Bio (CABA) make it a takeover target? Stay tuned!
