"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label UUVs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UUVs. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Smallcap Drone and autonomous systems stocks are catching the eye of U.S. and Canadian retail investors

 


Drone & Autonomous Defense Stocks — October 2026

Our five-company drone/autonomous-systems basket provides exposure across air, counter-drone, public safety and subsea defence. Going into October, the opportunity remains compelling, but valuations and execution risk vary considerably.

1. VOLATUS AEROSPACE — FLT.TO

Price: C$0.54 | October view: Most attractive entry

Volatus combines Canadian drone manufacturing, ISR, cargo/logistics, services and its developing V-Cortex autonomy platform. The shares have retreated from C$0.64 on September 23 to C$0.54 despite important operational progress.

Most importantly, Volatus has secured a five-year CAF tactical ISR contract: 100 systems initially, with options for another 4,900. The options are not guaranteed orders, but they establish a potentially important procurement pathway.

Investment case: At approximately C$0.54, FLT offers an attractive combination of depressed share price, improving balance sheet, Canadian sovereign-drone exposure and substantial defence optionality.

October stance: BUY/ACCUMULATE


2. KRAKEN ROBOTICS — PNG.V

Price: C$4.35 | October view: Highest-quality business

Kraken isn't an aerial-drone company; it provides the underwater component of the autonomous-defence thesis through sonar, subsea batteries, mine-hunting technology and marine robotics.

Q2 revenue was C$27.3M with C$5.0M adjusted EBITDA. More importantly, Kraken and newly acquired Covelya had approximately C$355M of announced 2026 orders combined.

At C$4.35, PNG remains roughly 32% below its beginning-of-year level, despite the considerably larger business created by Covelya.

Investment case: Of these five, Kraken has the strongest combination of established revenue, profitability, proprietary technology, naval/NATO exposure and backlog visibility.

October stance: BUY/ACCUMULATE


3. ONDAS — ONDS

Price: US$7.49 | October view: Highest growth

Ondas has evolved into a much larger autonomous-defence platform. TTM revenue is now approximately US$174M, while its expanding portfolio includes autonomous drones, counter-UAS and U.S. defence programs. Its market capitalization is approximately US$4.27B.

The attraction is enormous growth and contract momentum; the risks are equally clear: acquisition integration, high spending and a valuation that already anticipates considerable future success.

Investment case: Excellent growth exposure, but significantly more expensive than FLT and much more complex operationally.

October stance: BUY ON WEAKNESS / HOLD EXISTING


4. WRAP TECHNOLOGIES — WRAP

Price: US$1.40 | October view: Speculative

WRAP is the smallest and most speculative holding. Q2 revenue doubled to US$2.1M and gross margin reached roughly 75%. The company subsequently raised US$12M to expand WrapShield into public safety, federal defence and counter-UAS applications.

At roughly US$1.40 and an US$86M market capitalization, expectations are much lower than for ONDS or DPRO.

Investment case: Interesting asymmetric speculation, but WrapShield and the defence strategy still need commercial validation.

October stance: SMALL SPECULATIVE HOLD/ADD


5. DRAGANFLY — DPRO

Price: US$6.17 | October view: Watch

DPRO has become considerably more interesting. It won essentially the same CAF tactical ISR framework opportunity as Volatus—100 initial systems with options for another 4,900—and qualified across all five Canadian Defence Drone Initiative streams.

Furthermore, Unusual Machines and a U.S. investment fund have invested US$10M at US$5.35/share, strengthening DPRO's U.S. defence connections.

The problem is valuation. At US$6.17 DPRO carries an approximately US$231M market cap against only US$6.37M TTM revenue—a roughly 36× price/sales multiple. Shares outstanding have also increased substantially over the past year.

Investment case: Excellent strategic potential, but investors are already paying heavily for revenue that hasn't arrived yet. Around the US$5.35 strategic-financing level, the risk/reward would become more interesting.

October stance: WATCH

October 2026 — Capital Priority

FLT → PNG → ONDS → WRAP → DPRO

For new money in October, FLT and PNG stand out for different reasons. FLT offers the more asymmetric Canadian drone/defence opportunity at today's depressed C$0.54 price, while PNG provides the stronger operating business, positive adjusted EBITDA and substantial defence order book.

ONDS remains an important growth holding but doesn't need to be chased. WRAP warrants only a small speculative allocation until its new defence strategy produces meaningful contracts.

And DPRO stays on the watch list. The company is becoming strategically interesting, but at US$6.17 the valuation is difficult to justify from current revenue. A retreat toward US$5.35 or below, or a major new contract that materially changes expected revenue, would warrant another look.

Bottom line

Going into October, I would concentrate incremental drone/autonomy capital primarily in Volatus and Kraken, retain Ondas as the larger high-growth U.S. autonomy position, keep WRAP small and speculative, and wait for a better DPRO entry or stronger contract confirmation.