"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label algo bots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label algo bots. Show all posts

Monday, June 2, 2025

How institutional trading algorithms “hunt” predictable retail behavior at scale (Protecting your stops)

 Some pointers for more advanced investors/traders!

Trailing Stops: How They Can Be Exploited (But Not Personally)

ConcernExplanation
Stop-Hunting by AlgosAlgorithms can detect clustered stop zones (e.g., below technical levels or round numbers) and temporarily “sweep” the book to trigger stop-losses before reversing.
Order Book VisibilityYour trailing stop becomes a market order once triggered — it's not visible beforehand but creates predictable liquidity points.
Liquidity GapsIn low-volume names (e.g., junior miners, small caps), trailing stops can be triggered by small trades due to thin order books.
AI-Driven Volatility ExploitsSophisticated HFTs and quant funds model common retail behaviors (including trailing stops) to induce false breakouts or breakdowns.

🧠 But to Be Clear:

  • AI models do not and cannot know your personal trading activity.

  • Brokerage firms, market makers, and hedge funds may see patterns, not individual identities.

  • You're not being “watched” — but you're part of millions of patterns that models analyze.


✅ Best Practices to Use Trailing Stops Wisely

TipWhy It Helps
Use %-based stops on volatile namesAvoid predictable dollar thresholds
Place stops outside obvious zonesNot just under 50DMA or recent lows
Don’t auto-stop everythingUse mental stops or alerts in thinly traded names
Consider option collarsFor hedging instead of stop-triggering in volatile stocks
Use trailing stops on ETFs or liquid namesAlgos are less likely to manipulate high-liquidity instruments

🔐 In Short:

  • You are not personally at risk of AI systems tracking or targeting your trailing stops.

  • But trailing stops in predictable zones can be “swept” by large players’ algorithms — so awareness and smart placement are key.

    TRY A VOLATILITY-ADJUSTED STOP SYSTEM

    This system uses each stock's average true range (ATR) or beta to place smarter stops — not just random 5% or 10% levels that algos can sniff out.


    1. ATR-Based Trailing Stops (Preferred for Volatile Stocks or ETFs)

    StepHow to Do It
    Find ATR (14-day)Use any charting platform (e.g., TradingView, StockCharts, Yahoo)
    Set trailing stop1.5× to 2.5× ATR below recent high or purchase price
    ExampleSMCI ATR = $16 → Stop = $32 to $40 below high
    Adapts to daily volatility. Gives room to breathe, avoids random wicks.

    2. Beta-Weighted Stop Ranges (Good for Portfolio-Level Planning)

    Beta RangeSuggested Stop %Notes
    0.0 – 0.74–6%Lower-risk defensive/utility names
    0.7 – 1.27–10%Average-volatility equities
    1.2 – 2.010–15%Tech, biotech, high-growth
    2.0+15–20%+Ultra-volatiles: AI, biotech, crypto stocks

    Good for position sizing and risk control across different risk buckets.


    📉 3. Technical-Level Stops (Supplemental Logic)

    • Use pivot lows, trendline breaks, or support zones for “technical” backup.

    • Combine with ATR: e.g., “whichever is lower: 2× ATR or break below 20DMA.”


    💼 4. Position-Specific Application Example

    TickerVolatility MeasureSuggested Stop TypeNotes
    NVDAATR = $28, Beta = 1.62× ATR or ~12% trailingLiquid, earnings-sensitive
    NXEATR = $0.55Use fixed % stop: 15%Thin volume; avoid tight stops
    PLTRBeta = 2.0+15–20% mental stop onlyAvoid auto-trigger; fades/whips common
    CCO.TOATR = $1.201.5× ATR (~$1.80 stop)Moderate volatility, good for physical stop

    🚨 5. Do’s and Don’ts

    ✅ Do❌ Don’t
    Use volatility metrics to size stopsPlace arbitrary % stops (e.g., 10%)
    Trail stops only after breakoutUse tight stops in low-volume names
    Use alerts to monitor levelsDepend 100% on automated execution
    Adjust stops weekly (not daily)Chase price with stops intraday

    🧮 BONUS: Excel Formula Template (Pseudo-code)

    If using a spreadsheet:

    = IF(Volatility = "ATR", EntryPrice - (2 * ATR), EntryPrice * (1 - Stop%))