Energy Leaders, Why we've been adding to our position in Equinor ASA

 

Equinor at a glance (Oct 14, 2025)

• Business mix: global oil & gas producer; Europe’s largest gas supplier; growing (but selective) renewables; carbon management & hydrogen options. Equinor guides to ~2.2m boe/d by 2030 with NCS production ~1.2m boe/d to 2035. Equinor

• Europe gas anchor: Norway is the EU’s top gas supplier (~31–33% of EU imports). Equinor + the state’s SDFI volumes represent ~30% of Europe’s gas market. Energy+2Consilium+2

• Latest results / capital returns: Q2-25 adjusted operating income $6.53B; company reiterated $5B 2025 buyback framework (multiple tranches) and keeps the $0.37/ADR quarterly dividend cadence. 2025 total capital return guidance ~$9B (dividends + buybacks). Reuters+4Equinor+4Equinor+4

• Valuation snapshot (TTM): Market cap on U.S. ADR basis ~$58–60B; P/E ~7.6x; P/S ~0.6x; P/CF ~3.4x; EPS ~$3.02; shares o/s ~2.62–2.63B. Forward dividend yield prints in the ~6–9% range depending on source/FX and inclusion of variable elements. Finance Charts+5Yahoo Finance+5

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Segment & asset update

Natural Gas (core cash engine)

• Equinor is Europe’s largest gas supplier, with strong NCS fields (Troll, Ormen Lange partner, etc.) and pipeline/LNG optionality. Tightness persists into 2025 given European storage dynamics and LNG competition. Reuters+2Reuters+2

Read-through: Gas remains the strategic pillar—underpinning cash returns and low corporate beta.

Oil (North Sea & international)

• Johan Sverdrup at/near plateau through early 2025 before natural decline; still a massive, low-cost barrel contributor. S&P Global+1

• Bay du Nord (Canada): project advancing—BW Offshore named preferred FPSO bidder via HoA (Sept 1, 2025). Canada’s federal EA approval already in hand (Apr 2022). BW Offshore+1

• 2025 organic capex ~$13B; 2025 oil & gas output +4% y/y guided. Reuters

Read-through: Oil remains disciplined, long-cycle optionality (Sverdrup tail, Bay du Nord FID path) with capital efficiency.

Offshore Wind (selective; lessons learned)

• Dogger Bank A/B ramping; portfolio generation rose with Dogger Bank A contribution in Q2-25; further UK phase Dogger Bank D in progress (lease step). Equinor+2Dogger Bank Wind Farm+2

• U.S. East Coast headwinds: Empire/Beacon have seen setbacks; most recently, a key wind installation vessel contract tied to Empire Wind was terminated by Maersk, reflecting broader U.S. offshore wind stress. Reuters

• Strategy pivot: company is being more selective in renewables (capacity ambition narrowed earlier; focus on risk/returns). Reuters

Read-through: UK wind cornerstone is working; U.S. wind remains challenged—Equinor is prioritizing return discipline.

Lithium (DLE) — Smackover Lithium JV

• JV formed May 2024 with Standard Lithium across Southwest Arkansas & East Texas; ownership 55% SLI / 45% Equinor; SLI is operator.

• Today (Oct 14, 2025): JV filed a Definitive Feasibility Study for the South West Arkansas (SWA) project—positioned as North America’s highest-grade reported lithium brine reserve per JV release. standardlithium.com+2GlobeNewswire+2

Read-through: Early-stage optionality outside hydrocarbons; Equinor gets exposure to U.S. battery minerals with a credible DLE partner while not distracting from core cash cows.

Decarbonisation & portfolio housekeeping

• Electrification of select NCS platforms: Equinor halted several projects on cost escalation (Snorre/Heidrun/Åsgard/Kristin), continuing only Grane & Balder—implies slower Scope-1 reduction pace to 2030. Reuters

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Financials & returns (TTM context)

• Revenue ~US$106.5B; Operating margin ~28%; EPS ~$3.02. These align with your snapshot. Acquirers Multiple

• Dividends & buybacks: Quarterly $0.37/ADR plus $5B 2025 buyback program (in tranches; state maintains 67% through proportional cancellation). Forward yield shows mid-single to high-single digits depending on FX and whether investors annualize variable elements. Equinor+3Reuters+3Equinor+3

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Valuation & quality markers

• Cheap vs. history & peers: P/E ~7–8x; P/CF ~3–4x; P/S ~0.6x—a “value-with-dividends” setup backed by long-life NCS assets. (Low measured beta ~0–0.5 depending on dataset/venue.) Yahoo Finance+1

• Balance-sheet/cash discipline: supports continued repurchases and steady base dividend through cycles. Q2-25 still delivered multi-billion adjusted earnings in a normalizing price tape. Equinor

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Catalysts (6–24 months)

1. European gas pricing / winters 2025–27 (storage refills, LNG pull, Norwegian volumes). Reuters

2. Dogger Bank A/B/C ramp & UK grid integration; clarity on Dogger Bank D. Dogger Bank Wind Farm+1

3. Bay du Nord commercial steps (final agreements/FID, FPSO contract finalization). BW Offshore

4. Smackover Lithium DFS outcomes and permitting/financing milestones under the JV. GlobeNewswire

5. Capital returns—pace of buybacks and base dividend decisions around quarterly prints. Equinor

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Risks to monitor

• U.S. offshore wind execution & policy volatility (Empire/Beacon timeline, supply-chain). Reuters

• NCS emissions plan changes after electrification cancellations (reputational & regulatory interface). Reuters

• Commodity risks (gas, oil differentials; LNG competition from U.S./Qatar). Reuters

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Bottom line (why EQNR still works as a “foundation” holding)

• The gas franchise to Europe + low-cost NCS oil fund high, visible cash returns at a single-digit P/E. Renewables exposure is increasingly pruned to focus on risk-adjusted returns, while Smackover lithium adds asymmetric optionality. On the numbers you posted—MCap ~$60B; P/E ~7.4x; P/S 0.6; P/CF ~3.4x; EPS ~$3.02; Op margin ~28%—the setup remains attractive for income + buybacks with defensiveness from gas. Acquirers Multiple+1

  Related Articles:

• Lithium is the new oil AND, Smackover is America's new wellhead!

• Equinor is a diamond in the rough!

Lithium is the new oil AND, Smackover is America's new wellhead!

 

⚡ Investment Report: Smackover Lithium Project

Joint Venture between Standard Lithium Ltd. (NYSE: SLI / TSX-V: SLI) and Equinor ASA (NYSE: EQNR)

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🧭 Executive Summary

As America and China continue to lock horns over critical minerals and strategic materials, smaller North American players — Standard Lithium (SLI), Critical Metals Corp (CRML), Ucore Rare Metals (UCU), MP Materials (MP), and Avalon Advanced Materials (AVL) — are poised to thrive. These companies control valuable deposits of lithium, rare earths, and other critical minerals that underpin the global energy transition.

Among them, the Smackover Lithium Project stands out as one of the most strategically positioned and technically advanced lithium ventures in North America. With Standard Lithium as operator and Equinor ASA as a 45% partner, this project is well‑funded, technologically mature, and fully aligned with U.S. energy independence and clean‑tech industrial policy goals.

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🌍 Geological & Strategic Context

🔹 The Smackover Formation

• A geological giant stretching across the Gulf Coast Basin, running through southern Arkansas and eastern Texas.

• Formed by porous carbonate rock layers that host brine rich in lithium and other dissolved minerals.

• Already home to a mature industrial brine extraction ecosystem, historically focused on bromine production — creating ideal infrastructure for lithium development.

🔹 Project Zones

• Southwest Arkansas (SWA) Project: Core area of lithium concentration with average 437 mg/L lithium; planned capacity of 30,000 tonnes/year battery‑grade LiOH.

• East Texas Project: Expanding zone where brine samples have shown up to 806 mg/L lithium concentrations.

• Both project areas are contiguous within the subsurface Smackover geological system, forming a unified development corridor.

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⚙️ Technology & Operations

Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE)

• Proprietary process developed by Standard Lithium; continuously operated pilot plant in El Dorado, AR since 2020.

• >99% lithium recovery demonstrated, with minimal land and water use compared to evaporation ponds.

• Produces high‑purity lithium hydroxide suitable for EV batteries.

• Significantly shorter production cycles and lower carbon footprint.

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🤝 Joint Venture Structure — "Smackover Lithium"

Partner	Role	Ownership
Standard Lithium (SLI)	Project operator, technology owner	55%
Equinor ASA (EQNR)	Strategic investor, subsurface & capital partner	45%

• Equinor committed:

  • $30M upfront payment

  • $60M development work program

  • Up to $70M in milestone-based performance payments

• DOE Grant: $225M awarded (January 2025) for Phase 1 SWA construction.

• Operating JV name: Smackover Lithium — a separate entity governed jointly, designed to scale projects across the Smackover Basin.

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💰 Financial and Partner Strength

Standard Lithium Ltd. (SLI)

• Cash reserves: $31.2M (Dec 2024)

• Debt: None

• 100% operator of Smackover Lithium JV assets

• Positioned as one of the few pure‑play U.S. lithium developers

Equinor ASA (EQNR)

• Market Cap: ~$90B

• P/E: 7.8×

• P/S (TTM): 0.6

• P/CF (TTM): 3.6×

• Operating Margin: 28.4%

• Dividend Yield: 8.4%

• Strategic energy supermajor from Norway with deep pockets and global project execution capacity.

• Expanding beyond hydrocarbons into low‑carbon, critical‑minerals, and hydrogen sectors.

“Energy – Europe – America – Equinor ASA. P/E 7.8x, Dividend 8.4% — Nuff Said.”

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🧱 Development Roadmap

Milestone	Timeline	Status
JV Formation with Equinor	Q1 2025	✅ Completed
DOE $225M Grant Secured	Q1 2025	✅ Completed
FEED & Engineering Studies	Q2–Q3 2025	🔄 In Progress
Construction Start (SWA Phase 1)	Late 2025 – Early 2026	🔜 Planned
East Texas Resource Expansion	2025–2026	🔄 Active
Commercial Production Launch	2027 (est.)	🕒 Target

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📈 Investment Thesis

1. Strategic Resource Control: SLI and Equinor control one of North America’s richest lithium brine systems.

2. Government Support: DOE grant validates technical and geopolitical importance.

3. Technology Edge: Proven DLE technology de‑risks extraction and accelerates scalability.

4. Institutional Partner: Equinor’s financial strength ensures long‑term project execution.

5. Critical Mineral Supercycle: Geopolitical friction between the U.S. and China will continue to amplify the value of domestic lithium production.

We are long both SLI and EQNR. The combination of technology, capital, and national priority creates a unique, asymmetric upside in the North American lithium sector.

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⚠️ Risks & Mitigations

Risk	Impact	Mitigation
DLE Scale-Up Risk	Technical challenge in commercial scaling	Multi‑year pilot proven, DOE oversight ensures compliance
Permitting/Regulatory	Potential local or state delays	Favorable Arkansas regulatory climate; existing brine infrastructure
Lithium Price Volatility	Market-driven revenue swings	U.S. IRA incentives, potential offtake contracts, DOE-supported floor pricing
CapEx Inflation	Rising material costs	Equinor funding cushions; DOE grant offsets 20–30% of initial capex

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🌎 Macro Context: The Critical Mineral Rivalry

The U.S.–China rivalry over energy transition materials has escalated into a strategic resource race. Lithium, nickel, and rare earths have emerged as the new oil — essential to EVs, grid storage, and defense applications.

Small-cap developers like SLI, CRML, UCU, MP, and AVL occupy a unique sweet spot:

• They own the feedstock of the next industrial era.

• They are becoming acquisition targets for major energy and materials firms (e.g., Equinor, ExxonMobil, Rio Tinto).

• They provide investors with exposure to critical mineral leverage without megacap dilution.

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🧩 Conclusion

The Smackover Lithium Project is more than a single asset — it is a strategic partnership between innovation (SLI) and institutional power (Equinor), underpinned by U.S. government backing.

With world-class geology, proven technology, strong partners, and policy tailwinds, Smackover Lithium is positioned to become a cornerstone of America’s clean energy supply chain.

→ In short:

Lithium is the new oil. Smackover is America’s wellhead.

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Intel this year looks to me like the Blackberry Stock of 20 years ago!

 

I believe that, my analogy (to BlackBerry) is useful: 

Something that was once dominant, lost its footing, and then struggled to adapt

For Intel there are real warning signs.

1. Lost leadership in foundry / logic
   Intel has ceded manufacturing leadership to TSMC and Samsung in advanced nodes. Its delays, yield problems, and missteps eroded competitive advantage.

2. Execution risk is high
   Reviving a foundry business with new process nodes, scaling fab expansion, controlling costs, and securing customers is extremely difficult — many have tried and failed.

3. Financial pressure
   The company has had losses, heavy capital expenditure burdens, and the need to service debt and fund new fabs puts margin stress.

4. Dependence on government / subsidies
   A large part of the current “tailwinds” is from government support (CHIPS Act, grants, equity infusion). That introduces political risk, uncertainty, and potential distortions. The $8.9B U.S. government investment for a ~9.9% stake is a key signal. Newsroom+1

5. Unclear path to dominance
   Even with new fabs and subsidies, there’s no guarantee that Intel can win back major customers (like Apple, AMD, NVIDIA, etc.) or regain logic/advanced node prestige.

6. Market expectations may already be rich / too optimistic
   The recent jump in stock price might already embed bullish expectations of successful turnaround, leaving little margin for error.

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Why I don't own, and would not short Intel at this time!

What works against a pure “short / dead cat bounce” thesis

There are also significant counterarguments and asymmetric upside risks that caution against overly pessimistic positioning.

1. Strong government backing
   The U.S. government is actively supporting Intel both via grants and equity. That tends to reduce downside—governments tend to avoid letting big “strategic” players fail outright. The government ownership is passive (no board seats) per announcements. GovCon Wire+1

2. Strategic importance & political protection
   Semiconductor sovereignty is a national-security issue. Intel as one of the last large U.S.-based advanced logic players has a “too big to fail / too strategically important to let collapse” angle. That could lead to further policy support, protection, or bailouts if things go badly.

3. Recent partnerships and capital infusions
   For example, NVIDIA invested ~$5B in Intel in 2025, which is a vote of confidence (or at least strategic alignment) in Intel’s roadmap. WIRED+2Barron's+2

4. Turnaround upside if execution works
   If Intel can deliver new process nodes, yields, win foundry customers, and scale better, the upside is large — the stock could re-rate. The current valuation likely discounts that, meaning a good outcome could yield significant gains.

5. Volatility / mispricing opportunities
   In a turnaround/restructuring scenario, the stock may swing wildly, making timing critical (shorts can be punished in big rebounds).

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Recent stock dynamics & valuation

Intel Corp. (INTC)

$36.37

+$19.02(+109.63%)Max

$35.65-$0.72(-1.98%)Open38.50

Volume183.1M

Day Low33.96

Day High39.63

Year Low17.67

Year High39.65

• The current share price is showing volatility, which is typical in “recovery / turnaround” stories.

• Analysts recently downgraded the stock, warning that recent rallies may be overdone. Barron's

• The recent run-up has been partly driven by announcements of government and strategic investments, which may reflect sentiment more than fundamentals. (A 4th "Dead Cat" bounce)

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My view: cautious, but not a full “short first” conviction

Healthy skepticism is in order here. Intel is not yet out of the woods, and structural risks are real. But I’m more nuanced in my assessment:

• I wouldn’t place a large, unhedged short as a default — the potential for a positive surprise (or political/strategic lifeline) is real. (Or another "dead cat" bounce)

• If I were to take a short position, I’d structure it with tight risk controls (stop losses, hedges) and treat it as a tactical play rather than a belief that Intel is irrecoverable.

• I’m more comfortable holding a bearish option strategy (e.g. long put or put spread) to limit downside and preserve upside optionality, rather than a naked short.

Intel's "Tell"!
To me, Intel looks a lot like Blackberry Stock of 20 years ago.
Deadcat bounce after deadcat bounce until 90% disappeared!

I believe my analogy (to BlackBerry) is useful:  

I wouldn't touch this stock with your 10 ft pole!!!

Silver/Gold trade: With precious metals popping to ATH's, we bought shares of Coeur Mining Inc NYSE:CDE - Here's why!

 

Coeur Mining Corp

Revised Scenario (2025–2027, with $4,000 gold / $50 silver)

Case	Assumptions	Revenue (est.)	FCF (est.)	Stock Potential
Bull (now baseline)	Gold $4,000+, Silver $50, steady ops, costs flat	$2.5–2.8B	$1.0–1.2B+	Stock could 2–3× from here (i.e., $40–$60/share)
Base (pullback)	Gold $3,000–3,500, Silver $35–40	$1.8–2.2B	$600–800M	Stock could +50–100%
Bear (deep correction)	Gold <$2,500, Silver <$25	$1.0–1.4B	Break-even to $200M	Stock could retrace to –40–60% from current

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⚖️ Here’s a simplified list of the main institutional investors in Coeur Mining (CDE):

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🏦 Biggest Holders

• Vanguard Group – about 10%

• BlackRock – about 9%

• Van Eck (GDXJ / gold miner funds) – about 6–7%

• State Street (SSGA) – about 3–4%

• Mirae Asset Global Investments – about 2–3%

• Dimensional Fund Advisors – about 2–3%

• Geode Capital (index manager for Fidelity funds) – about 2–3%

• Arrowstreet Capital – about 1–2%

• Sprott Inc. – about 1–2% (specialist in gold/silver)

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✅ Key point: Roughly 70–75% of CDE is owned by institutions, with the big ETF managers (Vanguard, BlackRock, Van Eck) holding the largest stakes.

Investment Takeaway Under Current Prices

• CDE transforms from a mid-tier producer into a “cash-machine” with strong leverage to silver.

• The SilverCrest acquisition (Las Chispas) now looks prescient — it greatly increased CDE’s silver exposure right before an all-time-high rally.

• Compared to majors (Newmont, Agnico), CDE’s torque to silver is higher, so its upside is greater.

• Risk remains (prices could correct, mining hiccups, integration risk), but in a $4,000 gold / $50 silver environment, CDE should massively outperform.

As the U.S. Government invests more and more in precious metals and Lithium, I think it's possible that, Standard Lithium, $SLI could be next!

 

Equinor is their backer with a big share of the "Smackover" project,
Which is situated in both Texas and Arkansas.
We are long SLI and also long EQNR and here's why...

Energy - Europe - America - Equinor ASA NYSE: $EQNR
P/E Ratio 7.8x - Price/Sales (TTM) 0.6 - Price/Cash Flow (TTM) 3.6x
Operating Margin 28.4% - Dividend 8.4% - Nuff Said!!!
https://lnkd.in/gn52ddc9

Related Articles:

SLI's Smackover could be one of the richest Lithium Brine projects in the world, and it's located in Texas and Arkansas

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