"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"

Friday, June 27, 2025

We added to our position in Viking Therapeutics last week as the summer of Bio Tech M&A moves forward!

 


Lipid and metabolic disorders are a broad group of conditions that affect how the body processes fats (lipids) and energy. 

Here's a breakdown of the types of diseases in this category and Viking Therapeutics' role in treating them:


🧬 Common Lipid and Metabolic Disorders

These can be genetic or acquired and often overlap with obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease:

1. Lipid Disorders

  • Hypercholesterolemia (high LDL/"bad" cholesterol)

  • Hypertriglyceridemia (high triglyceride levels)

  • Familial hypercholesterolemia

  • Mixed dyslipidemia (elevated LDL + triglycerides, low HDL)

2. Metabolic Disorders

  • Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its more severe form:

    • Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)

  • Type 2 diabetes mellitus

  • Obesity and metabolic syndrome

  • Gaucher disease, Fabry disease, Pompe disease (rare, inherited)

  • Mitochondrial disorders (affecting cellular energy production)


🧪 Viking Therapeutics' Focus and Lead Assets

Viking is primarily focused on metabolic and endocrine diseases, with particular emphasis on:

1. VK2809 – Lead candidate for NASH and lipid disorders

  • A thyroid hormone receptor beta (TRβ) agonist.

  • Designed to reduce liver fat, improve lipid profiles, and treat NASH.

  • In Phase 2b clinical trials (as of mid-2024) with promising results.

  • Shown significant reductions in liver fat and improvements in LDL/triglycerides.

2. VK2735 – GLP-1 receptor agonist for obesity and metabolic disease

  • Part of the GLP-1 class, like semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy).

  • Targets weight loss and possibly type 2 diabetes.

  • Both injectable and oral formulations are in development.

  • Competing in the high-growth obesity/diabetes market.


📊 Does Viking Have a Lead?

Viking is not yet a commercial-stage company, but:

  • VK2809 is a strong contender in the NASH race, potentially rivaling Madrigal's resmetirom (Rezdiffra), which got FDA approval in 2024.

  • VK2735 is part of the ultra-competitive GLP-1 weight loss/diabetes market, where Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate.

So while Viking is not a market leader yet, it has:

  • Best-in-class potential in NASH with VK2809.

  • A promising pipeline that could disrupt obesity treatment with VK2735.



As Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) advances its high-potential assets in NASH and obesity, it becomes an increasingly attractive acquisition target, especially in the context of:

  • The massive commercial potential of NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis) and obesity markets

  • Its de-risked clinical programs, with strong Phase 2 data and growing investor interest

  • The patent-protected, next-generation nature of its GLP-1 and thyroid hormone receptor beta (THR-β) drug candidates

Here’s a breakdown of potential suitors and why they might be interested:


🧬 Top Potential Acquirers of Viking Therapeutics


🔹 1. Pfizer (PFE)

Why?

  • Pfizer has struggled post-COVID to find new growth drivers.

  • It lacks a strong obesity or NASH program after setbacks like the discontinuation of danuglipron (oral GLP-1) due to side effects.

  • Viking's VK2735 (GLP-1 agonist, injectable and oral) could revive Pfizer's ambitions in metabolic disease.


🔹 2. Eli Lilly (LLY)

Why?

  • Already dominating the obesity/diabetes market with Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Zepbound.

  • A strategic acquisition of Viking could:

    • Lock in next-gen GLP-1 competition.

    • Add a THR-β asset (VK2809) to expand into NASH—a logical adjaceny to obesity and T2D.


🔹 3. Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Why?

  • The world leader in GLP-1 therapies (Ozempic, Wegovy).

  • Could acquire Viking to:

    • Defend its dominance against oral GLP-1 competition.

    • Enter the NASH market via VK2809, complementing obesity treatment.


🔹 4. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)

Why?

  • Approved Rezdiffra (resmetirom) for NASH, first of its class.

  • Viking’s VK2809 is a direct TRβ rival with differentiated liver targeting.

  • A defensive or complementary acquisition would eliminate its main clinical-stage competitor.


🔹 5. Roche / Genentech or Merck (MRK)

Why?

  • These Big Pharma players have limited or no current exposure in obesity and NASH.

  • Both are actively seeking pipeline expansion via acquisition.

  • Viking’s pipeline offers a clean, focused portfolio with first-in-class and best-in-class potential.


🧪 Summary: Why Viking is Attractive

FeatureStrategic Value
VK2809 (THR-β)Potentially best-in-class NASH therapy
VK2735 (GLP-1)Oral and injectable forms offer flexibility
Market TailwindsObesity + NASH markets projected to hit $100B+
Clean Cap TableNo legacy liabilities or marketed products to manage
Small CapEasier acquisition (<$7B market cap) vs. peers

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