"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label Roche Genentech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roche Genentech. Show all posts

Friday, June 27, 2025

We added to our position in Viking Therapeutics last week as the summer of Bio Tech M&A moves forward!

 


Lipid and metabolic disorders are a broad group of conditions that affect how the body processes fats (lipids) and energy. 

Here's a breakdown of the types of diseases in this category and Viking Therapeutics' role in treating them:


🧬 Common Lipid and Metabolic Disorders

These can be genetic or acquired and often overlap with obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease:

1. Lipid Disorders

  • Hypercholesterolemia (high LDL/"bad" cholesterol)

  • Hypertriglyceridemia (high triglyceride levels)

  • Familial hypercholesterolemia

  • Mixed dyslipidemia (elevated LDL + triglycerides, low HDL)

2. Metabolic Disorders

  • Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its more severe form:

    • Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)

  • Type 2 diabetes mellitus

  • Obesity and metabolic syndrome

  • Gaucher disease, Fabry disease, Pompe disease (rare, inherited)

  • Mitochondrial disorders (affecting cellular energy production)


🧪 Viking Therapeutics' Focus and Lead Assets

Viking is primarily focused on metabolic and endocrine diseases, with particular emphasis on:

1. VK2809 – Lead candidate for NASH and lipid disorders

  • A thyroid hormone receptor beta (TRβ) agonist.

  • Designed to reduce liver fat, improve lipid profiles, and treat NASH.

  • In Phase 2b clinical trials (as of mid-2024) with promising results.

  • Shown significant reductions in liver fat and improvements in LDL/triglycerides.

2. VK2735 – GLP-1 receptor agonist for obesity and metabolic disease

  • Part of the GLP-1 class, like semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy).

  • Targets weight loss and possibly type 2 diabetes.

  • Both injectable and oral formulations are in development.

  • Competing in the high-growth obesity/diabetes market.


📊 Does Viking Have a Lead?

Viking is not yet a commercial-stage company, but:

  • VK2809 is a strong contender in the NASH race, potentially rivaling Madrigal's resmetirom (Rezdiffra), which got FDA approval in 2024.

  • VK2735 is part of the ultra-competitive GLP-1 weight loss/diabetes market, where Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate.

So while Viking is not a market leader yet, it has:

  • Best-in-class potential in NASH with VK2809.

  • A promising pipeline that could disrupt obesity treatment with VK2735.



As Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) advances its high-potential assets in NASH and obesity, it becomes an increasingly attractive acquisition target, especially in the context of:

  • The massive commercial potential of NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis) and obesity markets

  • Its de-risked clinical programs, with strong Phase 2 data and growing investor interest

  • The patent-protected, next-generation nature of its GLP-1 and thyroid hormone receptor beta (THR-β) drug candidates

Here’s a breakdown of potential suitors and why they might be interested:


🧬 Top Potential Acquirers of Viking Therapeutics


🔹 1. Pfizer (PFE)

Why?

  • Pfizer has struggled post-COVID to find new growth drivers.

  • It lacks a strong obesity or NASH program after setbacks like the discontinuation of danuglipron (oral GLP-1) due to side effects.

  • Viking's VK2735 (GLP-1 agonist, injectable and oral) could revive Pfizer's ambitions in metabolic disease.


🔹 2. Eli Lilly (LLY)

Why?

  • Already dominating the obesity/diabetes market with Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Zepbound.

  • A strategic acquisition of Viking could:

    • Lock in next-gen GLP-1 competition.

    • Add a THR-β asset (VK2809) to expand into NASH—a logical adjaceny to obesity and T2D.


🔹 3. Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Why?

  • The world leader in GLP-1 therapies (Ozempic, Wegovy).

  • Could acquire Viking to:

    • Defend its dominance against oral GLP-1 competition.

    • Enter the NASH market via VK2809, complementing obesity treatment.


🔹 4. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)

Why?

  • Approved Rezdiffra (resmetirom) for NASH, first of its class.

  • Viking’s VK2809 is a direct TRβ rival with differentiated liver targeting.

  • A defensive or complementary acquisition would eliminate its main clinical-stage competitor.


🔹 5. Roche / Genentech or Merck (MRK)

Why?

  • These Big Pharma players have limited or no current exposure in obesity and NASH.

  • Both are actively seeking pipeline expansion via acquisition.

  • Viking’s pipeline offers a clean, focused portfolio with first-in-class and best-in-class potential.


🧪 Summary: Why Viking is Attractive

FeatureStrategic Value
VK2809 (THR-β)Potentially best-in-class NASH therapy
VK2735 (GLP-1)Oral and injectable forms offer flexibility
Market TailwindsObesity + NASH markets projected to hit $100B+
Clean Cap TableNo legacy liabilities or marketed products to manage
Small CapEasier acquisition (<$7B market cap) vs. peers