"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

REEs are critical to all cutting edge technologies now and early investors should be rewarded! We just took a small position in our 4th REE stock-CRML

 

 

REE stocks - Critical Metals Corp. (CRML)

Brief overview

CRML is a pre-revenue, high-risk developer with two strategically important assets: 

1. Tanbreez (heavy-rare-earth-rich REE project in Greenland) and 

2. Wolfsberg (fully permitted hard-rock lithium project in Austria). 

The March 12, 2025 S-K 1300 for Tanbreez established a compliant 45 Mt @ ~0.4% TREO with ~27% HREO, and EXIM Bank issued a US$120M loan LOI in June 2025—signals of both resource scale and geopolitical relevance. Balance-sheet strength and execution (DFS, permitting, financing, and offtake) remain the gating items; upside hinges on converting strategic interest into funded, build-ready projects. GlobeNewswireCritical Metals CorpReuters

What CRML legally controls

  • Tanbreez (Greenland, REEs): CRML holds a controlling interest in Tanbreez Mining Greenland A/S and has the contractual right to increase ownership to 92.5% after investing up to US$10M (management indicates completion targeted in 2025). Stock Titan

  • Wolfsberg (Austria, lithium): CRML controls the fully licensed Wolfsberg lithium project (spodumene) in Carinthia, ~270 km south of Vienna. criticalmetalscorp.gcs-web.com

Resources & geology (defensible figures)

  • Tanbreez S-K 1300 (Mar 12 2025): 45 Mt @ ~0.4% TREO; ~27% HREO share (unusually high for hard-rock deposits). Company communications also describe the broader kakortokite host rock ~4.7 Bnt, but the 45 Mt is the current compliant MRE to anchor on. GlobeNewswire

  • Additional technical context: Company May 2025 update reiterates the 0.38–0.40% TREO and ~27% HREO mix and highlights deep drilling upside. Critical Metals Corp

  • Wolfsberg DFS (Mar 8 2023, JORC): Ore Reserves ~11.5 Mt @ 0.64% Li₂O (Proved+Probable). The DFS outlines ~15-year LOM at ~780 kt/a steady-state mining. MinedocsAustralian Securities Exchange

Project status & 2025 milestones

  • Tanbreez

    • EXIM Bank LOI: US$120M 15-year loan to support development (technical/economic studies, pre-production, start-up). Critical Metals Corp Reuters Investing Nasdaq

    • DFS underway: CRML engaged NIRAS A/S (Denmark) to complete the Definitive Feasibility Study. Critical Metals Corp Stock Titan

    • Strategic context: U.S. & Danish officials previously lobbied to keep Tanbreez out of Chinese hands, underscoring U.S. supply-chain priorities. Reuters

    • Economics (company scenario): CRML disclosed an NPV range around US$2.8–3.6B and IRR indications (company estimates; treat as preliminary until DFS). Critical Metals Corp

  • Wolfsberg

    • Project described by CRML as fully licensed hard-rock lithium operation with prior DFS work (European Lithium-era), positioned for EU battery supply chains. European Lithium

Financing & balance sheet (directional)

  • Public trackers show a thin cash position vs. development needs and modest debt—typical for pre-revenue developers; future equity/convertible/offtake prepayments are likely. Please consult the latest quarterly on CRML’s IR site for exact figures and runway. StockAnalysisCritical Metals Corp

  • Key funding signal: the EXIM LOI meaningfully de-risks early-stage capital for Tanbreez but is not a definitive commitment; conditions precedent and U.S. policy priorities apply. Reuters

Ownership, institutions & insider activity (indicative)

  • Institutions: Data sources vary; reported institutional ownership ranges are low-to-mid single digits on some trackers, with filings showing increased positions from certain funds 

  • (e.g., BlackRock 13F showing a ~600% q/q increase to ~1.65 M shares as of 6/30/25). Treat 13F data as backward-looking. ChartMillNasdaqFintel

  • Insiders/Form 4s: Third-party screens show limited recent insider transactions; always verify directly against the SEC filings page or CRML IR for definitive records. NasdaqMarketChameleon.com

Competitive/strategic positioning

  • Why Tanbreez matters: Hard-rock REEs with a high HREO proportion (~27%) are strategically valuable for NdFeB magnet supply chains (EVs, wind, defense). Western HREO projects are scarce; Tanbreez’s scale and deep-water access add appeal. criticalmetalscorp.gcs-web.com

  • Why Wolfsberg matters: A fully permitted EU-located Li project fits Europe’s push for domestic battery materials under critical-raw-materials policies. criticalmetalscorp.gcs-web.com

  • Geopolitics as a tailwind: U.S. interest in Greenland’s REEs is explicit and ongoing; CRML’s asset base aligns with Western supply-chain security goals. Reuters

Near-term catalysts to watch

  1. Tanbreez DFS progress (scope, capex/opex, flowsheet, schedules). Critical Metals Corp

  2. Financing progression (conversion of EXIM LOI; additional project finance; potential EU/Denmark/Greenland support mechanisms). Critical Metals Corp

  3. Resource/Met updates (infill/deep drilling results; potential HREO recovery data). Critical Metals Corp

  4. Offtake discussions (magnet makers, defense/EV supply-chain counterparties)—not announced yet, but pivotal. (No public offtakes disclosed in sources above.)

Key risks

  • Funding risk: Multi-hundred-million-dollar capex across two projects; equity dilution is likely absent major offtake prepayments/exports credit support. StockAnalysis

  • Technical/execution risk: Kakortokite mineralogy and HREO recovery need DFS-level proof at commercial scale. criticalmetalscorp.gcs-web.com

  • Permitting/community & geopolitical complexity: Greenland/EU policy and environmental standards can lengthen timelines; EXIM LOI is conditional. Reuters

  • Commodity-price risk: REE basket pricing (especially Dy/Tb/Nd/Pr) and lithium price volatility materially affect economics.

Is CRML a likely takeover target?

  • Strategic Appeal
    CRML holds two geopolitical-critical assets:

    1. Tanbreez — a rare-earth project in Greenland rich in heavy REEs (critical for Western defense and technology supply chains).

    2. Wolfsberg — a fully permitted lithium project in Austria, positioned to feed Europe’s EV battery market.

    These assets align strongly with Western governments’ supply-chain security strategies, which enhances CRML’s attractiveness to both industrial players and state-backed investors. Cohen & Company Capital Markets+2

  • Growing Confidence Signals
    The appointment of retired U.S. Air Force Four-Star General Timothy Ray to CRML’s advisory board underscores the company’s strategic importance and could raise the profile among potential acquirers, especially in defense circles. Yahoo FinanceStock Titan+1

  • Economic Upside
    A Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for Tanbreez shows:

    These economics hint at enormous latent value, enticing for larger mining or strategic buyers looking to vertically integrate or diversify.

Who might be interested?

  1. Major REE or lithium producers
    Companies like MP Materials, Lynas Rare Earths, or Albemarle may see value in expanding into Greenland or Europe to balance global supply chains.

  2. Battery manufacturers or automakers
    Automakers or battery materials firms (especially in Europe) could pursue CRML assets to secure feedstock. Similar models have precedented off-takes like the earlier BMW MOU seen in European Lithium’s pre-merger phase. Cohen & Company Capital Markets+4Stock Titan+4

  3. Governments or state-sponsored consortia
    European or U.S. defense and infrastructure entities (or even sovereign wealth funds) focused on building critical metals autonomy may pursue equity or asset acquisitions for strategic supply.

Summary

  • Potential?  Yes—CRML’s strategic resource base and improving project metrics make it a plausible acquisition target.

  • Likely suitors? Established mining majors, battery/EV OEMs, or government-backed purchasers aligned with critical supply-chain objectives.

Bottom line (investor lens)

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