Here’s a fresh, single-page style investment/business report on Cabaletta Bio (NASDAQ: CABA) that pulls in the August–September 2025 filings, company updates, and the latest clinical/CMC details.
1) Institutional holders — latest Schedule 13G/13G-A cluster (summer 2025)
Notes: figures below come from each filer’s Schedule 13G/13G-A (event date generally June 30, 2025; filings landed Aug 6–14, 2025, unless noted). Do not add Prudential (PFI) on top of Jennison (PFI is the parent; overlapping exposure). Percentages use each filer’s own denominator and blocker math where applicable.
Holder (form) Reported shares / power % of class Filed Jennison Associates LLC (IA) 10,107,167 7.2% Aug 6, 2025. Cabaletta Bio, Inc. Alyeska Investment Group, L.P. (+ GP & Anand Parekh) 8,904,367 (shared vote/dispo; includes warrants) 9.9% Aug 14, 2025. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1 Bain Capital Life Sciences Opportunities III, L.P. 9,677,125 (incl. exercisable portion of warrants; 9.99% blocker) 9.99% Aug 14, 2025. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1 Adage Capital (ACM/ACP; Gross & Atchinson) 9,002,580 (incl. 172,822 via warrants) 9.99% Aug 12, 2025. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+2Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+2 Citadel (Advisors entities & Securities) ≈4.69M aggregated (shared vote/dispo) n/a Jun 20, 2025. SEC Cormorant Asset Management, LP 5,000,000 (shared vote/dispo) 5.47% (filer calc.) Aug 14, 2025. Stock Titan Prudential Financial, Inc. (umbrella for Jennison/PGIM) 10,391,167 consolidated 7.4% Aug–Sep 2025. (Umbrella disclosure; overlaps Jennison.) Stock Titan Vanguard Group, Inc. 3,450,727 3.83% Jul 29, 2025. Stock Titan BlackRock, Inc. 894,647 ~1.0% Jul 16, 2025. Stock Titan (Reference) Company’s SEC page with the full August cluster — — Aug–Sep 2025. Cabaletta Bio, Inc. Read-through: Multiple sophisticated, crossover/hedge funds sit near ~10% positions (often with warrants and 9.99% blockers). The concentration provides liquidity/support but also means the cap table can react quickly to data/financing.
2) Financials & operating posture (latest reported)
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Cash & securities: $194.7M at June 30, 2025; company guides runway into 2H 2026. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1
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Burn snapshot: Q2’25 disclosure highlights elevated R&D as registrational prep ramps; (press summary cites R&D ~$37.6M for Q2’25). Stock Titan
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Capital markets actions: Public offering priced June 11, 2025 (~$100M gross) to extend runway and prep commercial readiness. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.
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Option repricing (May 2025): Board repriced all outstanding options under 2018/2019 plans to $1.92 (close on May 19, 2025); other terms unchanged; disclosed via 8-K and insider Form 4 footnotes. SEC+3Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+3Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+3
3) Technology, clinical status & CMC
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Modality: Autologous CD19 CAR-T (rese-cel / CABA-201) for autoimmune disease (RESET program: myositis, SLE/LN, systemic sclerosis; also MG & PV studies).
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Regulatory path: After FDA alignment, company targets a 2027 BLA in myositis; two registrational cohorts (~15 pts each) added to RESET-Myositis (H2’25 start). Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1
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Signal recap (EULAR 2025): In myositis, 7/8 patients achieved clinically meaningful TIS responses after discontinuing all immunomodulators and while off/tapering steroids; durability maintained across follow-up in responders. Broader 18-patient dataset (Myositis/SLE/SSc) presented across three orals. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1
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CMC & scale-up: Viral vector Oxford Biomedica; drug product process transferred to Lonza for registrational enrollment; 424B5 also references broader manufacturing network/tech transfer steps. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1
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Fresh materials: Corporate Presentation (Sept 3, 2025) furnished via 8-K; good for latest timelines and site maps. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1
4) Share-price outlook (2–4 years) — scenario framing
(Not investment advice; illustrative ranges hinge on efficacy durability, safety, enrollment speed, CMC, and financing.)
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Bull case (approval path visible): Registrational myositis cohorts reproduce early magnitude/durability with manageable CRS/ICANS; CMC runs clean; payer dialogues constructive. A first-wave autoimmune CAR-T approval narrative can support multi-$bn EV on commercialization math. Catalysts: registrational updates through 2026; BLA prep in 2027. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1
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Base case (solid but mixed): Positive efficacy with some variability; modest timeline slippage; 1–2 additional financings pre-BLA. Stock tracks data cadence and dilution quality. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.
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Bear case (execution/safety/CMC issues): Durability or safety setbacks in larger N, or CMC friction → regulators request more data; financing at discounts. Shares trade on runway/option value until de-risking. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.
12–24 mo. watch-items: Registrational cohort initiation/readouts; ≥6–12-mo durability in responders; neurotoxicity/CRS profile with larger N; Lonza/Oxford readiness and yields; net burn vs runway. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.
5) Takeover potential & likely interested acquirers
Is CABA a takeout candidate? Plausible in 12–24 months if registrational myositis data are convincingly positive and safety/CMC are on track. (There is no public report of active talks; this is strategic inference.)
Most logical buyers (fit rationales):
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Big Immunology owners: AbbVie, J&J, Roche, Sanofi, GSK — deep autoimmune franchises; acquiring a “one-and-done” CD19 CAR-T for autoimmunity would hedge biologic erosion and extend leadership.
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Cell-therapy leaders: Novartis, BMS, Gilead — existing CAR-T manufacturing/logistics; diversification from oncology to autoimmunity.
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Large biotechs seeking autoimmune depth: AstraZeneca, Regeneron — platform integration plus commercial muscle.
Signals to monitor: expanded CMC partnerships, structured ex-US deals, banker/advisor hires, unusual block trades, and headline registrational efficacy/safety that de-risks approval.
6) Key risks (what can break the thesis)
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Clinical & safety: Autoimmune CAR-T in larger populations is still early; durability and neurotoxicity risk (ICANS) must remain acceptable as N scales; breadth of evidence may be required by regulators. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.
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Manufacturing & cost-to-serve: Autologous CAR-T economics and logistics vs chronic SOC; execution with Lonza/Oxford is critical for registrational and early commercial phases. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.
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Financing/dilution: Runway to 2H’26 implies further capital likely ahead of BLA; option repricing aligned incentives but may be viewed as shareholder-unfriendly. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1
Appendices / source links
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SEC Filings hub (CABA) — latest 8-K (Sept 3, 2025), DEF 14A (May 13, 2025), Q2’25 10-Q links. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.
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Q2’25 results PR (Aug 7, 2025) — cash/runway, registrational plan, EULAR data summary, CMC partners. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1
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EULAR 2025 itemized data (Company 8-K & PR) — 7/8 TIS responders off immunomodulators; 18-patient dataset across Myositis/SLE/SSc. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.
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Manufacturing — Oxford Biomedica (vector), Lonza (drug product) in Q2’25 PR; broader manufacturing/TT in 424B5. Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+1
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Institutional holders — Bain 13G/A (Aug 14), Adage 13G/A (Aug 12), Alyeska 13G (Aug 14), Jennison 13G (Aug 6), Citadel 13G (Jun 20), Vanguard/BlackRock updates; umbrella PFI. Stock Titan+7Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+7SEC+7
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Option repricing — Company 8-K (May 15, 2025) and insider Form 4 footnotes (effective May 19, 2025; reset to $1.92). Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+2Cabaletta Bio, Inc.+2
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Corporate Presentation (Sept 2025) — furnished via 8-K and posted to IR site. Stock Titan+1
Bottom line
Cabaletta has a clear myositis BLA path (2027), supportive EULAR 2025 signals, credible CMC partners, and a cap table populated by sophisticated ~10% holders. Over the next 12–24 months, registrational efficacy/safety + CMC execution will determine whether CABA becomes (a) a high-value independent launch story, or (b) a logical take-out for a large immunology or CAR-T incumbent.
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Ed Note: we are long CABA stock!
🔍 Current Analyst Price Targets
Source Avg / Consensus Target High / Low Notes Fintel US$11.79 one-year target High $23.10, Low $2.02 Fintel StockAnalysis US$12.75 average High $25, Low $2 StockAnalysis MarketWatch / Zacks US$11.56 average / median ~ US$14.00 Low ~US$2.00, High ~US$22.00 MarketWatch+1 TipRanks US$12.00 average High ~US$22.00, Low ~US$2.00 TipRanks StocksGuide US$14.28 average among ~11 analysts High ~$23.10, Low ~$2.02 StocksGuide MarketBeat US$14.50 consensus – Based on 7 buy ratings, 1 hold; upside from current ~$2.18 price MarketBeat
💡 What This Implies
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The consensus range is roughly US$11-$15 under most recent coverage, with outliers up to high-teens or low-$20s in bullish analyst models.
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The lowest targets are in the $2-$3 range, reflecting some analysts factoring in risk of execution, safety / durability issues, or maybe skeptical timelines.
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The average upside is very large (several hundred percent) from current share price (~US$2) under many forecasts — which suggests analysts believe a lot of the potential is not yet priced in.
⚙️ Caveats & Reliability
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Volatility & data risk: Because CABA is clinical-stage, much depends on upcoming data (registrational cohorts, safety, durability). A miss could shift expected targets downward sharply.
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Wide ranges indicate uncertainty: The $2 lows are likely “if everything goes poorly or delays mount”; the $22+ highs assume strong execution, regulatory alignment, and favorable commercial environment.
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Time horizon: These are mostly 12-month targets; some assume BLA/registrational success is de-risked sooner. If delays happen, the target may shift.
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Analyst bias: Some high targets come from firms with more bullish biotech portfolios; they may assume best-case outcomes. Check which analysts have been conservative vs optimistic in similar names.
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Why Are Analysts So Bullish on ARCT? (Update Aug 4th)
✅ 1. Universally Strong Analyst Ratings
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Nearly all analysts currently rate ARCT as a Buy or Strong Buy. For example, StockAnalysis.com reports 8 analysts, consensus rating “Strong Buy”, and a median price target of about $52.83 (~+330% upside from current price) StockAnalysis+15.
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Simply Wall St lists 11 analysts, consensus fair value $67.40, estimating ~82% undervaluation relative to price ~$12.30 Simply Wall St.
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TipRanks also classifies ARCT as a “Strong Buy” based on ~9 analysts TipRanks+15
Nearly all analysts currently rate ARCT as a Buy or Strong Buy. For example, StockAnalysis.com reports 8 analysts, consensus rating “Strong Buy”, and a median price target of about $52.83 (~+330% upside from current price) StockAnalysis+15.
Simply Wall St lists 11 analysts, consensus fair value $67.40, estimating ~82% undervaluation relative to price ~$12.30 Simply Wall St.
TipRanks also classifies ARCT as a “Strong Buy” based on ~9 analysts TipRanks+15
🔬 2. Promising Clinical Pipeline
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ARCT‑810, an mRNA therapy for rare urea cycle disorder OTC deficiency, delivered positive interim Phase 2 data—showing measurable reductions in glutamine and improved ureagenesis with good tolerability. That spurred Cantor Fitzgerald to reaffirm its Overweight rating and fueled price targets as high as $140 Nasdaq+3.
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Other pipeline programs, including LUNAR‑CF (cystic fibrosis), ARCT‑2304 (H5N1 influenza vaccine), and the EU approval of ARCT‑154 (self-amplifying mRNA COVID‑19 vaccine), are seen as potential value drivers Simply Wall St+5.
ARCT‑810, an mRNA therapy for rare urea cycle disorder OTC deficiency, delivered positive interim Phase 2 data—showing measurable reductions in glutamine and improved ureagenesis with good tolerability. That spurred Cantor Fitzgerald to reaffirm its Overweight rating and fueled price targets as high as $140 Nasdaq+3.
Other pipeline programs, including LUNAR‑CF (cystic fibrosis), ARCT‑2304 (H5N1 influenza vaccine), and the EU approval of ARCT‑154 (self-amplifying mRNA COVID‑19 vaccine), are seen as potential value drivers Simply Wall St+5.
📊 3. Massive Upside from Low Base
🧪 4. Strategic Pipeline & Partnerships
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Their LUNAR lipid nanoparticle delivery and STARR self‑amplifying mRNA platforms are versatile, powering multiple therapeutic candidates across rare disease and vaccine domains.
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Partnerships with organizations like Ultragenyx (rare diseases), Takeda (NASH), Janssen (HBV vaccines) and Vinbiocare/CSL (in Asia for COVID vaccine) help spread development risk and fast-track market entry Simply Wall St+2.
Their LUNAR lipid nanoparticle delivery and STARR self‑amplifying mRNA platforms are versatile, powering multiple therapeutic candidates across rare disease and vaccine domains.
Partnerships with organizations like Ultragenyx (rare diseases), Takeda (NASH), Janssen (HBV vaccines) and Vinbiocare/CSL (in Asia for COVID vaccine) help spread development risk and fast-track market entry Simply Wall St+2.
⚠️ But: High Risk Profile
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Arcturus is still in early clinical stages, with no FDA‑approved commercial products yet. That makes forecasts inherently speculative.
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Negative profit margins (~–47%), cash burn and regulatory execution all remain key variables Directors Talk Interviews+5
Arcturus is still in early clinical stages, with no FDA‑approved commercial products yet. That makes forecasts inherently speculative.
Negative profit margins (~–47%), cash burn and regulatory execution all remain key variables Directors Talk Interviews+5
📋 Analyst Snapshot (Recent Highlights)
Analyst Firm Rating Latest 12‑mo Target Notes Canaccord Genuity Strong Buy $66.00 Maintained despite a slight revision HC Wainwright & Co. Strong Buy $60.00 Reiterated prior target Wells Fargo Buy (Overweight) $45‑$50 Slight reductions noted Scotiabank Sector Outperform $35.00 Recently upgraded to outperform from initiate at $32 Nasdaq+4
| Analyst Firm | Rating | Latest 12‑mo Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canaccord Genuity | Strong Buy | $66.00 | Maintained despite a slight revision |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Strong Buy | $60.00 | Reiterated prior target |
| Wells Fargo | Buy (Overweight) | $45‑$50 | Slight reductions noted |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | $35.00 | Recently upgraded to outperform from initiate at $32 Nasdaq+4 |
(Note: Individual analyst actions have been relatively conservative, focusing on maintaining position rather than dramatic revisions.)
🎯 Summary
Analysts are tremendously bullish on ARCT due to:
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Compelling Phase 2 or ongoing early data from ARCT‑810 (OTC deficiency), and momentum in CF & vaccine programs.
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A low current valuation vs high-end price targets—implying massive upside if clinical/pathway success occurs.
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Strong platform potential across multiple therapeutic areas and partnerships reducing development risk.
✅ Final Takeaway
Analysts are bullish on Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) due to strong early clinical results—especially in OTC deficiency—coupled with a growing pipeline using its LUNAR mRNA platform across multiple rare disease areas and infectious vaccines. Recently upgraded price targets and broad-based Buy/Strong Buy ratings reflect confidence in its potential for substantial upside, albeit with high risk typical of pre‑profit biotech firms.
If Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc (ARCT) becomes a takeover target, the most likely acquirers would be:
