Before reviewing this article, you may wish to, at first, review our previous article on this subject found at:
Quantum communication, and the "Little company that could"!
Will Mynaric (MYNA) become a Takeover target?
The German engineers and scientists at MYNA have developed some pretty convincing tech advances in Quantum Laser communication as the Space race heats up.
If Mynaric were to become an acquisition target, several types of companies might show interest, depending on their strategic goals in quantum communication, laser technology, or satellite-based communication systems. Below are potential acquirers, categorized and ranked based on strategic alignment, financial resources, and market positioning:
1. Aerospace and Defense Giants
These companies are heavily invested in satellite communication, laser technology, and secure data transmission systems.
Key Candidates:
Airbus Defence and Space
- Why? Airbus is already a major player in satellite communication and owns Tesat-Spacecom, Mynaric’s closest competitor. Acquiring Mynaric would strengthen its portfolio, particularly in standardizing laser communication for mega-constellations.
- Positioning: Well-funded and already active in optical communications.
Northrop Grumman
- Why? Northrop has collaborated with Mynaric in the past and has a strong presence in defense and satellite manufacturing. Owning Mynaric could help Northrop integrate advanced optical communication systems into its products.
- Positioning: Established defense contractor with deep pockets and a history of strategic acquisitions.
Lockheed Martin
- Why? Lockheed Martin is a leader in defense and satellite systems. Mynaric’s laser communication technology aligns with Lockheed’s interest in multi-domain operations and secure communications.
- Positioning: Strong financials and global influence in aerospace and defense.
Raytheon Technologies
- Why? Raytheon has a growing interest in space and secure communication. Mynaric’s technology would enhance its offerings in defense communication networks.
- Positioning: Focused on advanced technology for military and government contracts.
2. Satellite and Space Communication Companies
Satellite operators and manufacturers need laser communication to ensure the scalability and efficiency of their constellations.
Key Candidates:
SpaceX (Starlink) (unlikely)
- Why? SpaceX relies on laser communication for its inter-satellite links in Starlink. Acquiring Mynaric could secure a supply of advanced, standardized optical terminals for its growing constellation.
- Positioning: SpaceX has the resources and strategic alignment but typically prefers to develop in-house solutions.
Amazon (Project Kuiper)
- Why? Amazon is heavily investing in Project Kuiper, its satellite internet constellation. Mynaric’s expertise could accelerate Amazon’s deployment of high-bandwidth, low-latency laser links.
- Positioning: Amazon’s deep financial resources make it a likely contender.
SES or Intelsat
- Why? These established satellite operators are evolving toward optical communication systems to remain competitive in the era of mega-constellations.
- Positioning: Both companies have partnerships with optical communication providers but may seek vertical integration.
3. Quantum Technology Companies
Quantum communication firms could acquire Mynaric to expand their capabilities into classical laser communication systems, bridging quantum and classical networks.
Key Candidates:
ID Quantique
- Why? A leader in quantum-safe communication systems, ID Quantique could integrate Mynaric’s laser communication systems to complement its quantum technologies.
- Positioning: Synergy between secure quantum and classical communication.
Arqit Quantum
- Why? Arqit specializes in quantum encryption. Mynaric’s optical terminals could enhance its capabilities for satellite-based quantum communication.
- Positioning: Focused on future-proofing communication networks.
4. Technology and Telecommunications Giants
Tech companies are increasingly investing in space and advanced communication systems to secure market leadership in data transmission.
Key Candidates:
Alphabet (Google)
- Why? Google has a history of investing in advanced communication technologies (e.g., Project Loon). Mynaric could play a role in its ambitions for space-based or terrestrial high-speed networks.
- Positioning: Financially capable and strategically aligned with cutting-edge tech.
Amazon Web Services (AWS)
- Why? AWS Ground Station is expanding its satellite services. Mynaric could bolster Amazon’s position in ground-to-satellite communication.
- Positioning: Aggressive investment in satellite technologies.
Cisco
- Why? As a global networking leader, Cisco could use Mynaric’s technology to enhance its position in next-generation networks, including space-based systems.
- Positioning: Looking to expand into emerging markets like satellite and aerospace networking.
5. Optical and Photonics Specialists
Companies specializing in lasers or photonics might acquire Mynaric to diversify or strengthen their market presence.
Key Candidates:
Lumentum
- Why? A leader in optical technologies, Lumentum could integrate Mynaric’s systems into its portfolio to serve aerospace and defense markets.
- Positioning: Already a major player in photonics with resources for expansion.
II-VI Incorporated (Now Coherent Corp.)
- Why? A major photonics and materials company, Coherent Corp. could use Mynaric to expand into aerospace optical communication.
- Positioning: Established in optical solutions with a focus on growth in high-tech markets.
Thorlabs
- Why? Known for advanced optical systems, Thorlabs could benefit from acquiring a company like Mynaric to enter the space and satellite communication market.
- Positioning: Innovative but smaller-scale compared to others.
6. Private Equity and Investment Groups
Private equity firms with a focus on space, defense, or high-tech markets may see Mynaric as an attractive investment opportunity for its growth potential.
Key Candidates:
- Blackstone
- Carlyle Group
- Vista Equity Partners
These firms often acquire high-tech companies and scale them for eventual resale or IPO.
Conclusion
The companies best positioned to acquire Mynaric would likely be aerospace and defense giants (Airbus, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin) or satellite operators (Amazon, SES, SpaceX). However, quantum technology companies (like ID Quantique) and optical specialists (like Lumentum or Coherent Corp.) could also find strategic value in integrating Mynaric’s capabilities into their portfolios.
The final decision would depend on who sees the most synergy with Mynaric’s cutting-edge laser communication systems. More recently, Mynaric has been facing financial challenges. In December 2024, the company entered into negotiations with its primary lender to extend a $16.5 million bridge loan maturing on December 30, 2024, and to secure additional capital to support its production ramp and ongoing operations. This financial restructuring is being conducted under the German Corporate Stabilization and Restructuring Act (StaRUG).
Given these developments, it's plausible that companies with strategic interests in laser communication technology, such as those previously mentioned, might be monitoring Mynaric's situation. However, without official statements or confirmed reports, any assertions about acquisition interest remain speculative.
Ed Note:
The German Government may view Mynaric as a key ingredient of it's technology base in national security and therefore might block such a move!
Caution: In December 2024, Mynaric secured multiple bridge loans totaling over $20 million to address immediate working capital needs. The company also entered negotiations for further funding, contingent upon financial reorganization under Germany's StaRUG framework, which aims to facilitate corporate restructuring.
Additionally, there have been significant management changes, including the departure of CEO Mustafa Veziroglu and CFO Stefan Berndt von-Bülow, and the appointment of a Chief Restructuring Officer.
Although we believe that the technology is worth more than the company, we submit the following as well:
Mynaric AG (NASDAQ: MYNA) is currently facing significant financial challenges, including a substantial decline in stock price, liquidity issues, and recent management changes. As of January 16, 2025, the stock is trading at $0.425 per share.
However, these projections should be approached with caution due to the company's current financial instability.
Given the uncertainties surrounding Mynaric's financial health and restructuring efforts, the stock's performance in 2025 remains unpredictable. We will be monitoring the company's restructuring progress, funding acquisitions, and overall market conditions before making more investment decisions.
Ed Note: Full disclosure
We own shares of MYNA however, Our investment in MYNA is pure speculation and, one of the few penny stocks we own!
