A U.S. Government Shutdown will affect these companies much more than others!

 

A data-backed, “most exposed” list focused on companies where U.S. federal work is a big slice of revenue (or the core business) 

Grouped by exposure bands and citing recent filings/rankings.

Ultra-high exposure (≈80–100%+ tied to U.S. federal work)

1. SAIC (SAIC) — ~98% of revenue from U.S. Gov’t (prime or sub). SEC

2. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) — reporting pegs U.S. Gov’t at ~98% of revenue. The Wall Street Journal+1

3. Leidos (LDOS) — ~87% from U.S. Gov’t. SEC+1

4. Northrop Grumman (NOC) — 87% to U.S. Gov’t (2024). SEC

5. HII (HII) — military shipbuilding; U.S. Gov’t orders comprise “substantially all” backlog. SEC

6. CACI (CACI) — business overwhelmingly U.S. Gov’t; disclosures show ~97% domestic (U.S. agency-focused). TradingView+1

7. V2X (VVX) — “substantial majority” of revenue from U.S. Gov’t; DoD-centric services. Q4 Capital

Very high exposure (≈60–80%)

8. BWX Technologies (BWXT) — ~76% from U.S. Gov’t (Navy reactors, DOE/NNSA). BWX Technologies Investors

9. Lockheed Martin (LMT) — 73% from U.S. Gov’t (65% DoD). SEC

10. General Dynamics (GD) — 69% from U.S. Gov’t. SEC

11. L3Harris (LHX) — ~74% in Q1’25 from U.S. Gov’t (incl. FMS). Fintel

12. KBR (KBR) — 57% from U.S. Gov’t (FY2024). Q4cdn

High exposure (≈40–60%)

13. RTX (RTX) — U.S. Gov’t ~45% of net sales (ex-FMS). RTX Investors

14. Parsons (PSN) — Federal is a core segment; multiple U.S. federal customer sets each >20% of revenue (heavy federal mix). SEC

15. Maximus (MMS) — Gov’t outsourcing specialist (federal + state); filings show predominantly U.S. program revenue with growing federal exposure. Maximus, Inc.+1

Material exposure (program-critical, though more diversified)

16. Palantir (PLTR) — Gov’t still ~55% of FY2024 revenue; U.S. Gov’t growth +53% Y/Y in Q2’25. Visual Capitalist+1

17. Mercury Systems (MRCY) — Defense electronics pure-play; revenue is predominantly U.S. defense primes/programs. SEC

18. Kratos (KTOS) — Tactical drones/space & defense; revenue largely from U.S. DoD/IC programs. Kratos Defense+1

19. AeroVironment (AVAV) — DoD small UAS/missiles; mix varies with FMS/international but U.S. programs remain core drivers. Aviation Investor+1

20. Huntington Ingalls’ peers / Big 5 integrators (context) — The Top 100 Federal Contractors ranking (FY2024 awards) underscores Leidos, Booz Allen, Lockheed, GD, RTX, L3Harris, SAIC, NOC, CACI as the biggest prime recipients — i.e., most operationally exposed to any shutdown pauses in awards/funding flow. Washington Technology

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Why these names are most at risk in a shutdown

• Revenue concentration: The first dozen derive a majority of sales from the federal wallet; a pause in new awards, mods, or payments hits quickly. (See %s above.)

• Procurement pipeline sensitivity: Top rankings in federal contract awards (Leidos, BAH, LMT, GD, RTX, LHX, SAIC, NOC, CACI) signal heavy reliance on award timing/obligation flow. Washington Technology

• Agency dependence: IT/consulting contractors (BAH, SAIC, LDOS, CACI, PSN, KBR, VVX, MMS) feel shutdowns faster than multi-year, already-appropriated hardware programs, though even primes see new starts and mods slow. (Industry advisories and coverage highlight this dynamic.) Bloomberg Law

Note: Rankings like Washington Technology Top 100 and BGOV200 show who’s biggest by federal obligations (a proxy for exposure), while 10-Ks give the percentage of total company revenue tied to the U.S. Government. For shutdown risk, both matter. Washington Technology+1