"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label USA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USA. Show all posts

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Kraken Robotics acquisition of Coveya and it's subsidiaries will make this a much larger, international player in the subsea robotics market!

 


July 2026 - My updated conviction

Six months ago, I viewed Kraken as an excellent Canadian defence growth company.

Today, I increasingly view it as a global subsea technology platform with exposure to defence, offshore energy, maritime infrastructure and autonomous underwater systems.

That is a broader and, in my view, more durable investment thesis and...

Canada's announcement today (July 7th) that it will acquire up to 12 new Subs from Thysel Krupp of Germany, only enhances the overall investment picture.

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Kraken has now acquired Covelya Group, a leading international provider of mission-critical underwater technology solutions operating through its subsidiary companies including...

Sonardyne International Limited, EIVA A/S, Forcys Limited, Wavefront Systems Limited, Voyis Imaging Inc., and Chelsea Technologies Ltd. 

This acquisition is a "future tech" game changer as Kraken grows into a NATO and international partner in the sub sea robotics market. 

For Kraken Robotics shareholders, I believe this acquisition is transformational.

 I would argue it is the most important event in the company's history, even more significant than any individual NATO contract announced to date.

The Simple Version

Before the acquisition, Kraken was primarily known for:

  • Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS)
  • Underwater batteries
  • Minehunting systems (KATFISH)
  • Subsea imaging and robotics

After the acquisition, Kraken becomes something much larger:

A vertically integrated global subsea defense and maritime technology company capable of supplying most of the critical systems needed by autonomous underwater vehicles, mine warfare systems, subsea surveillance networks, and naval intelligence platforms.


This moves Kraken from being a niche supplier to becoming a potential "prime-level" subsea technology partner.


Why Sonardyne Matters


The crown jewel here is Sonardyne International.

Sonardyne is one of the world's leading providers of:

  • Underwater navigation
  • Acoustic positioning
  • Underwater communications
  • Tracking systems
  • Autonomous vehicle guidance

These technologies are used by:

  • NATO navies
  • Offshore energy companies
  • Undersea infrastructure operators
  • Research organizations

Think of Sonardyne as the underwater equivalent of GPS and communications infrastructure.

Kraken previously could "see" underwater using SAS.

Now it can also:

  • Navigate underwater
  • Communicate underwater
  • Position underwater assets
  • Track underwater assets

That is a major leap.


Why This Is Important For NATO

The NATO naval buildout is increasingly focused on:

  • Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs)
  • Uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)
  • Mine countermeasures
  • Arctic surveillance
  • Protection of pipelines and subsea cables
  • Seabed warfare

The challenge is that these systems require multiple technologies:

CapabilityProvider
Sonar imagingKraken
BatteriesKraken
NavigationSonardyne
CommunicationsSonardyne
Survey softwareEIVA
Underwater imagingVoyis
Environmental sensingChelsea
Sonar enhancementWavefront

Kraken can now offer much of this package itself.

That makes Kraken substantially more attractive to:

  • NATO navies
  • Defence primes
  • Naval system integrators

Why EIVA Is A Big Deal

EIVA brings advanced software and autonomous mission planning.

Many investors focus on hardware.

The highest-margin businesses in defense often become:

  • Software
  • Data processing
  • Mission management
  • AI-enabled decision support

EIVA adds these capabilities and gives Kraken recurring software revenues.


Voyis Is Another Hidden Gem
Voyis Subsea Laser imaging

Voyis Imaging provides world-class underwater optical imaging.

Combining:

  • Kraken SAS sonar
  • Voyis imaging

creates a powerful intelligence package for:

  • Mine detection
  • Cable inspection
  • Port security
  • Underwater surveillance

This combination could become a preferred solution for NATO mine warfare operations.


The Revenue Impact

The numbers are substantial.

Management indicated the combined company would have approximately:

  • $365 million revenue (2025 basis)
  • ~24% adjusted EBITDA margins
  • More than 700 customers
  • Approximately 1,200 employees
  • Operations across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and South America.

For perspective:

A few years ago Kraken was a small-cap Canadian ocean technology company.

This acquisition potentially turns it into one of the

largest publicly traded subsea technology firms in the world.


Why This Helps Future NATO Contracts

This may be the biggest investment implication.

Previously Kraken might win a contract for:

  • Sonar
  • Batteries
  • Minehunting equipment

Now Kraken can bid for larger portions of a naval program.

Instead of selling a sensor, Kraken can help deliver an integrated system.

Defense ministries generally prefer fewer suppliers and integrated solutions.

That increases:

  • Contract size
  • Customer stickiness
  • Long-term support revenue
  • Follow-on procurement opportunities

Exactly the type of revenue NATO modernization programs generate.


The Main Risk

There is one major risk.

The acquisition cost:

$615 million.

To finance it Kraken raised significant capital and added debt.

So shareholders must monitor:

  • Integration execution
  • Debt management
  • Synergy realization
  • Customer retention

If management executes well, the acquisition could be highly accretive.

If integration struggles, the size of the deal means mistakes would be costly.


Bottom Line For A Long-Term PNG Investor

If your thesis is that NATO, Canada, the UK, and allied nations will dramatically increase spending on:

  • Mine warfare
  • Undersea surveillance
  • Arctic security
  • Autonomous naval systems
  • Protection of subsea cables and energy infrastructure
  • (Ed Note: it is our thesis)

then this acquisition strengthens that thesis considerably.

Before Covelya, Kraken was a highly specialized technology supplier.

After Covelya, Kraken begins to look more like a global subsea defense technology platform with sonar, batteries, navigation, communications, imaging, software, and autonomous systems under one roof.

From an investment perspective, I view this as moving PNG from a "promising Canadian defense tech company" toward a potential "underwater defense systems champion" serving NATO and allied navies over the next decade. 

The key question is no longer whether Kraken has excellent technology—it is whether management can successfully integrate a company nearly as large as itself and convert that scale into larger defense awards.

Ed Note

I believe this is the rocket fuel Kraken needed to become a complete, international entity 

and a strong NATO partner!


Friday, March 27, 2026

A powerful setup for exponential growth from combining two of Canada's smallcap stocks (PNG and FLT)

 


structured, investor-grade case for combining both Kraken Robotics (TSXV: PNG) and Volatus Aerospace (TSXV: FLT) into a portfolio


 



👉 dual-use (commercial + defense) technologies leveraged into a historic NATO/Canada/U.S. defense supercycle.

(Ed Note: Disclosure - We are long both stocks and accumulating at these exceptionally low levels)


🧭 1. Macro Tailwind: A Once-in-Generation Defense Supercycle

Yesterday

Key facts (this is the foundation of this thesis):

  • NATO + Canada defense spending +20% YoY in 2025
  • Canada now at ~$63.4B annually (2% GDP) and rising
  • NATO targeting 5% of GDP by 2035 (massive structural shift)
  • Canada planning:
    • +85% defense R&D
    • +240% defense industry revenues
    • Domestic procurement shift (less reliance on U.S.)
  • Global defense spending heading toward $2.6 trillion annually

What this really means (investment lens):

This is not cyclical. It is:

  • A multi-decade reindustrialization of defense
  • A shift toward autonomous systems, AI, and unmanned warfare
  • A push for domestic suppliers (Canada/EU)

👉 This is exactly where Kraken + Volatus sit.


⚓ 2. Kraken Robotics — “Underwater AI + Robotics = Naval Force Multiplier”

📡 Core Technology Advantage

Kraken builds:

  • Synthetic aperture sonar (SAS)
  • Underwater drones (AUV/ROV systems)
  • Subsea batteries (critical for autonomy)
  • Ocean mapping + intelligence systems

These are used for:

  • Mine detection
  • Submarine tracking
  • Infrastructure protection (pipelines, cables)
  • Arctic surveillance

Why this matters:

Traditional naval power:

  • $billions per ship
  • decades to deploy

Kraken systems:

  • Deploy in <1 year
  • Cover more area at lower cost
  • Act as force multipliers

🚀 Growth Drivers (Next 24 Months)

1. NATO Naval Modernization + Arctic Security

  • Arctic is now a strategic battlefield
  • Canada explicitly prioritizing Arctic sovereignty
  • Underwater drones = essential for vast coastlines

👉 Kraken is almost perfectly aligned with this need.


2. Shift to Autonomous Naval Warfare

Modern naval doctrine:

  • Move from crew-heavy platforms → autonomous fleets
  • Subsea domain = least monitored, highest risk

Kraken’s niche:

  • “Eyes and ears of the ocean”

3. Export Leverage (Already Proven)

  • ~90% of revenue from international customers
  • Customers in 30+ countries

👉 This is critical:

  • Not dependent on slow Canadian procurement
  • Already integrated into NATO ecosystem

4. Dual-Use Flywheel

Commercial markets:

  • Offshore energy (oil, wind)
  • Subsea infrastructure inspection
  • Ocean mapping

Defense demand → scales manufacturing → lowers cost → boosts commercial margins


📈 Investment Thesis (Kraken)

Why exponential growth is plausible:

  • Small base + high-margin tech
  • Positioned at critical naval chokepoint
  • Direct exposure to:
    • NATO spending
    • Arctic expansion
    • subsea infrastructure security (huge emerging theme)

👉 If defense contracts accelerate, revenue can scale non-linearly


🚁 3. Volatus Aerospace — “Airspace Control + Drone Warfare Layer”

🛰️ Core Technology Stack

Volatus is not just drones — it’s a full-stack aerial intelligence platform:

  • UAV operations (inspection, surveillance, delivery)
  • Counter-drone systems (C-UAS)
  • AI-enabled airspace monitoring (SKYDRA platform)
  • Services + SaaS model emerging

  • ▶️ Volatus Aerospace enters a commercial contract to deploy remotely managed drones capable of delivering 100kg payloads to offshore wind turbines > > https://hubs.la/Q047vGMB0

🔥 Why Volatus is Strategically Important

1. The Drone War Era Is Here

Modern conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East):

  • Drones are now:
    • Surveillance tools
    • Strike weapons
    • Infrastructure threats

👉 Counter-drone = must-have capability

Market:

  • Counter-UAS expected >$20B by 2030

2. Defense + Civil Convergence

Volatus operates in:

  • Defense
  • Infrastructure inspection
  • Energy
  • Public safety

👉 Same platform → multiple revenue streams


3. Recurring Revenue Transition (Key Inflection)

  • SKYDRA = SaaS-based system
  • Moves business from:
    • Project-based → subscription model

👉 This is where valuation multiples expand.


4. Direct Tailwind from Canadian Policy

  • Canada explicitly pushing:
    • Domestic defense suppliers
    • Drone & surveillance capability
  • Volatus already positioned as:
    • Canadian-based operator with defense alignment


🚀 Growth Drivers (Next 24 Months)

1. Counter-Drone Demand Explosion

  • Airports, military bases, cities
  • NATO airspace protection mandates

2. NATO Infrastructure Protection

  • Pipelines, ports, energy grids
  • Requires:
    • Persistent aerial monitoring
    • Rapid deployment drones

3. Defense Contracts + Partnerships

  • Even small contracts → huge revenue impact (microcap effect)

4. SaaS + Platform Expansion

  • High-margin recurring revenue layer
  • Potential valuation re-rating event

📈 Investment Thesis (Volatus)

Why exponential growth is plausible:

  • Positioned at fastest-growing defense segment (drones)
  • Transitioning to software + recurring revenue
  • Benefiting from:
    • Defense spending
    • Civil infrastructure demand
    • AI-driven airspace control

👉 This is a classic small-cap asymmetry setup


⚖️ 4. Kraken vs Volatus — Complementary, Not Competing

CategoryKraken RoboticsVolatus Aerospace
DomainUnderwater (subsea)Airspace (UAV)
Core RoleNaval intelligenceAirspace control
Defense UseMine detection, surveillanceCounter-drone, ISR
Commercial UseEnergy, mappingInfrastructure, inspection
Revenue ModelHardware + servicesServices → SaaS shift
Strategic RoleOcean dominanceAirspace dominance

👉 Together they represent:
“Full-spectrum unmanned warfare exposure” (sea + air)


🧠 5. Why This Could Be an “Exponential Growth Window”

The Setup:

  1. Massive capital inflow (defense budgets)
  2. Structural shift to autonomy
  3. Domestic supplier preference (Canada/NATO)
  4. Small-cap companies with scalable tech

The Result:

  • Revenue growth is lumpy → then accelerates sharply
  • Contracts → backlog → scaling → margin expansion

⚠️ 6. Risks (It's Critical to Keep Grounded)

Kraken:

  • Procurement delays (Canada is slow)
  • Competition from large defense primes (Kongsberg, Thales)

Volatus:

  • Execution risk (microcap scaling)
  • Capital requirements / dilution
  • Fragmented drone market

🧭 7. Bottom-Line Investment View

Structuring this as I typically do:

🔵 Core Thesis:

“Autonomous warfare infrastructure is replacing traditional platforms — Kraken (sea) and Volatus (air) are early-stage suppliers to that shift.”

🟢 Portfolio Role:

  • Kraken = more proven, export-driven
  • Volatus = higher risk, higher upside (optionality)

⚡ Upside Scenario (2 years):

  • Kraken → steady contract scaling + margin expansion
  • Volatus → step-change growth if SaaS + defense contracts hit

🧩 Final Take

This is one of the rare setups where:

  • Macro (defense supercycle)
  • Technology (autonomy + AI)
  • Policy (domestic procurement)
  • Geography (Canada/NATO alignment)

👉 All point in the same direction

That’s exactly the environment where small-cap defense tech can go nonlinear.

Recent News:

Volatus Aerospace Reports Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results

, from 8:30AM ET on Tuesday Mar 31, 2026 by Dow Jones

8:30AM ET on Tuesday Mar 31, 2026 by Dow Jones

   -- Revenue Growth of 26% year-over-year 
 
   -- Defence Equipment revenues more than 2x from 2024 
 
   -- Total Assets of C$92M+, up 60% year-over-year 
 
   -- Europe & UK revenue grew 150%, driven by NATO-aligned defence business 
 
   -- Current cash balance of C$41M 
 
   -- Secured a NATO defence contract valued at up to C$9M in Dec 2025 
 
   -- Establishment of the Volatus Innovation & Drone Manufacturing Facility in 
      Mirabel, QC 

Related Articles:

Kraken Robotics is in the right place, at the right time, with the right technology for eager buyers!

Friday, January 23, 2026

Why we have added HudBay Minerals Stock to our Ai/Robotics Growth portfolio

 


Hudbay Minerals (TSX: HBM | NYSE: HBM)

A Retail Investor’s Business & Investment Report

USA / Canada – 2026 Outlook


Executive Summary

Hudbay Minerals is a North American–anchored copper producer with meaningful gold and silver by-product exposure. It sits at the intersection of two powerful, long-duration themes:

  1. The electrification and AI-infrastructure buildout (copper demand)

  2. Precious-metals resilience (gold and silver as monetary hedges)

Unlike royalty or streaming companies, Hudbay operates real mines. That gives it higher volatility—but also far greater upside when metal prices rise. For retail investors, HBM represents a high-torque growth vehicle tied to the physical buildout of the modern economy.

In simple terms:

Hudbay owns the metal that builds the future.


What Hudbay Does

Hudbay is primarily a copper producer, with:

  • Gold and silver as valuable by-products

  • Operations in:

    • Canada (Manitoba – Snow Lake / Lalor complex)

    • Peru (Constancia mine)

    • United States (Arizona – Copper World development)

Copper is the company’s economic engine. Gold and silver enhance margins and provide precious-metal upside without requiring separate mines.


Why Hudbay Matters in 2026+

Copper is rapidly becoming an “AI metal.”

Every major growth vector of the next decade depends on it:

  • AI data centers

  • Power grids and transmission lines

  • EVs and charging infrastructure

  • Robotics and automation

  • Wind, solar, and energy storage

Copper supply is tight. New large-scale projects take years to permit and build—especially in stable jurisdictions. Hudbay already owns producing assets and is advancing one of the most important new copper projects in the United States.

That creates a rare profile:

  • Current cash-flowing producer

  • With long-life growth assets

  • In politically aligned countries

  • Feeding a structural demand wave


Core Assets

1. Constancia (Peru)

Hudbay’s largest operation. A long-life copper mine with steady production and improving efficiency.

2. Snow Lake / Lalor (Manitoba, Canada)

A high-grade polymetallic complex producing copper, zinc, gold, and silver.
This is Hudbay’s Canadian anchor and a key margin contributor.

3. Copper World (Arizona, USA)

A transformational project.

  • Large copper resource

  • Located in the United States

  • Aligned with reshoring, defense, and infrastructure priorities

  • Could become one of the most strategically important new copper mines in North America

This asset alone can change Hudbay’s valuation profile over time.


Financial Profile (In Plain Terms)

Hudbay is:

  • Cash-flow generating

  • Cyclical (moves with metal prices)

  • Highly leveraged to copper price increases

  • Supported by gold and silver revenue

When copper prices rise, Hudbay’s earnings can grow multiples faster than diversified miners or streaming companies.

That’s the appeal:

  • In flat markets: modest returns, volatility

  • In strong copper cycles: outsized gains


Investment Thesis

Hudbay offers retail investors:

  1. Direct exposure to the electrification super-cycle

  2. Embedded precious-metals upside (gold & silver)

  3. North American strategic relevance

  4. High operating leverage to rising metal prices

  5. A clear growth runway through Copper World

It is not a defensive stock. It is a builder’s stock—a way to invest in the physical systems behind AI, energy transition, and industrial expansion.


Risks to Understand

Hudbay is not risk-free:

  • Mining is capital-intensive

  • Earnings fluctuate with metal prices

  • Permitting and development timelines can slip

  • Operational challenges can occur

HBM will be more volatile than royalty companies or large diversified miners.

However, that volatility is exactly what creates asymmetric upside in a strong metals environment.


Where Hudbay Fits in a Portfolio

Hudbay works best as:

The growth engine in a metals portfolio.

It pairs exceptionally well with:

  • A royalty/streaming company (e.g., Wheaton or Franco-Nevada)

  • Or a primary silver miner

In that structure:

  • Hudbay = industrial buildout + torque

  • The partner holding = stability + precious-metals defense


Bottom Line for Retail Investors

Hudbay Minerals is a:

  • Copper-led growth company

  • Anchored in Canada and the United States

  • Positioned for the infrastructure and AI era

  • With meaningful gold and silver upside

  • And a multi-year runway of strategic relevance

For investors who believe that:

  • AI, electrification, and grid expansion are inevitable

  • Copper will remain structurally constrained

  • North American supply will be favored

Hudbay is one of the most direct and powerful ways to express that view in the public markets.

related posts:

Robotics and Humanoids - January 2026


Tuesday, September 30, 2025

A U.S. Government Shutdown will affect these companies much more than others!

 


A data-backed, “most exposed” list focused on companies where U.S. federal work is a big slice of revenue (or the core business) 

Grouped by exposure bands and citing recent filings/rankings.

Ultra-high exposure (≈80–100%+ tied to U.S. federal work)

  1. SAIC (SAIC) — ~98% of revenue from U.S. Gov’t (prime or sub). SEC

  2. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) — reporting pegs U.S. Gov’t at ~98% of revenue. The Wall Street Journal+1

  3. Leidos (LDOS) — ~87% from U.S. Gov’t. SEC+1

  4. Northrop Grumman (NOC)87% to U.S. Gov’t (2024). SEC

  5. HII (HII) — military shipbuilding; U.S. Gov’t orders comprise “substantially all” backlog. SEC

  6. CACI (CACI) — business overwhelmingly U.S. Gov’t; disclosures show ~97% domestic (U.S. agency-focused). TradingView+1

  7. V2X (VVX) — “substantial majority” of revenue from U.S. Gov’t; DoD-centric services. Q4 Capital

Very high exposure (≈60–80%)

  1. BWX Technologies (BWXT)~76% from U.S. Gov’t (Navy reactors, DOE/NNSA). BWX Technologies Investors

  2. Lockheed Martin (LMT)73% from U.S. Gov’t (65% DoD). SEC

  3. General Dynamics (GD)69% from U.S. Gov’t. SEC

  4. L3Harris (LHX)~74% in Q1’25 from U.S. Gov’t (incl. FMS). Fintel

  5. KBR (KBR)57% from U.S. Gov’t (FY2024). Q4cdn

High exposure (≈40–60%)

  1. RTX (RTX) — U.S. Gov’t ~45% of net sales (ex-FMS). RTX Investors

  2. Parsons (PSN) — Federal is a core segment; multiple U.S. federal customer sets each >20% of revenue (heavy federal mix). SEC

  3. Maximus (MMS) — Gov’t outsourcing specialist (federal + state); filings show predominantly U.S. program revenue with growing federal exposure. Maximus, Inc.+1

Material exposure (program-critical, though more diversified)

  1. Palantir (PLTR) — Gov’t still ~55% of FY2024 revenue; U.S. Gov’t growth +53% Y/Y in Q2’25. Visual Capitalist+1

  2. Mercury Systems (MRCY) — Defense electronics pure-play; revenue is predominantly U.S. defense primes/programs. SEC

  3. Kratos (KTOS) — Tactical drones/space & defense; revenue largely from U.S. DoD/IC programs. Kratos Defense+1

  4. AeroVironment (AVAV) — DoD small UAS/missiles; mix varies with FMS/international but U.S. programs remain core drivers. Aviation Investor+1

  5. Huntington Ingalls’ peers / Big 5 integrators (context) — The Top 100 Federal Contractors ranking (FY2024 awards) underscores Leidos, Booz Allen, Lockheed, GD, RTX, L3Harris, SAIC, NOC, CACI as the biggest prime recipients — i.e., most operationally exposed to any shutdown pauses in awards/funding flow. Washington Technology


Why these names are most at risk in a shutdown

  • Revenue concentration: The first dozen derive a majority of sales from the federal wallet; a pause in new awards, mods, or payments hits quickly. (See %s above.)

  • Procurement pipeline sensitivity: Top rankings in federal contract awards (Leidos, BAH, LMT, GD, RTX, LHX, SAIC, NOC, CACI) signal heavy reliance on award timing/obligation flow. Washington Technology

  • Agency dependence: IT/consulting contractors (BAH, SAIC, LDOS, CACI, PSN, KBR, VVX, MMS) feel shutdowns faster than multi-year, already-appropriated hardware programs, though even primes see new starts and mods slow. (Industry advisories and coverage highlight this dynamic.) Bloomberg Law

Note: Rankings like Washington Technology Top 100 and BGOV200 show who’s biggest by federal obligations (a proxy for exposure), while 10-Ks give the percentage of total company revenue tied to the U.S. Government. For shutdown risk, both matter. Washington Technology+1