Showing posts with label USA. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Antimony, Gold, the U.S. Government and Perpetua Resources PPTA, what ties these entities together!

PPTA is one of the most advanced U.S. critical-minerals names heading into 2026.

Executive summary

Perpetua controls a permitted U.S. mine that would produce gold and, critically, antimony—a defense-critical mineral the U.S. largely imports from China/Russia.

In 2025 the project cleared its last federal permit, was placed on the FAST-41 transparency dashboard, raised equity to meet project-finance requirements, and on Sept 8, 2025 received a Preliminary Project Letter and indicative term sheet from the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) for up to ~$2 billion of debt.

Management guides to EXIM Board consideration by spring 2026 and to beginning early-works construction in fall 2025. These steps materially de-risk financing and timing. PR Newswire+3PR

What the U.S. Government actually wants here

Secure antimony supply for national defense. Stibnite would be the "only" domestic mined source of antimony, used in munitions/propellants and other defense systems. Federal statements and company fact sheets repeatedly cite the mine supplying ~35% of U.S. antimony demand in initial years. The Pentagon has already provided DPA Title III funding to advance the project. Reuters+2U.S. Department of War+2
Reduce dependence on China/Russia. China imposed antimony export controls in 2024; Washington responded by prioritizing domestic critical-minerals projects and fast-tracking reviews (FAST-41 / transparency projects). Reuters+1
Catalyze private capital with public backstops. EXIM first issued a letter of interest in 2024 (~$1.8 B), followed by the Sept 8, 2025 PPL + indicative term sheet (~$2 B) as due diligence advanced—classic policy sequencing to crowd in equity/stream financing. Reuters+1
Clean-energy linkages and Grid storage.

A portion of Stibnite antimony is designated for Ambri (long-duration liquid-metal batteries), tying the project to grid-storage resilience objectives. Perpetua Resources | Corporate+1

Project snapshot (Stibnite Gold Project)

Products: Gold + antimony (open-pit mine, on U.S. Forest Service land). Perpetua Resources
Scale (as disclosed/reported): Reuters and project materials cite ~35% of U.S. antimony demand in early years and ~450k oz/yr gold at steady state. (Always subject to mine plans/economics.) Reuters
Permitting: Final federal Record of Decision and USACE Section 404 issued in 2025 after ~8 years of review; project listed on the federal FAST-41 Transparency Projects dashboard. Perpetua Resources+2PR Newswire+2
ESG/restoration: Plan includes cleanup of a legacy mining district, fish-passage restoration, utility upgrades, and low-carbon grid power supply. Performance.gov

Financing & balance sheet (2025)

Equity closed: US$425 million (US$325 M upsized offering + US$100 M private placement to Paulson & Co.) in June 2025 to support EXIM equity needs and working capital. Perpetua Resources | Corporate
Government support: DPA Title III awards (aggregate >$80 M over time per company IR; recent press details $59.2 M TIA for construction readiness). Perpetua Resources | Corporate+1
Project debt: EXIM PPL + indicative term sheet for ~$2 Billion received Sept 8, 2025; target Board consideration spring 2026. PR Newswire
Next leg: Management pursuing a royalty/stream to complete the package (company 10-Q notes royalty/stream + EXIM + equity as the intended structure). SEC

Technology & advancements

Mining/processing: Modern open-pit methods with antimony recovery alongside gold; plan integrated with site remediation and long-term water-quality improvements pledged in permits/ROD. Perpetua Resources
Supply-chain integration: Ambri antimony supply agreement (2021) connects Stibnite feedstock to U.S. grid-scale storage tech, aligning with domestic energy-security policy. PR Newswire
Programmatic fast-track: Inclusion on FAST-41 transparency list improves inter-agency accountability and schedule certainty during remaining non-federal permits/approvals. Performance.gov

Timeline & catalysts (as of Sept 2025)

Early-works construction start: Fall 2025 (company guidance). PR Newswire
Royalty/stream announcement/close (2025–2026). SEC
EXIM Board decision: Target spring 2026; term sheet already received with PPL. PR Newswire
State/local permits & construction decision (sequenced with financing). Perpetua Resources

Investment thesis

Why it can work

Strategic scarcity: Only U.S. mined source of antimony at scale; clear defense & energy-security demand, heightened by China export curbs. Reuters+1
De-risking milestones stacking up: Final federal permits (2025), equity financing (June 2025), EXIM PPL + indicative term sheet (Sept 2025). PR Newswire+2Perpetua Resources | Corporate+2
Policy tailwinds: Explicit U.S. government programs (DPA Title III, EXIM) and FAST-41 transparency status signal national-interest priority. PR Newswire+1
Option on gold: Gold co-product cash flow can enhance project economics and financing flexibility. (Reuters cites ~450k oz/yr at steady state.) Reuters

What to watch / key risks

Final financing is not done. EXIM’s PPL is preliminary; Board approval, underwriting, covenants and a royalty/stream still need to land. PR Newswire+1
Litigation/community risk. Nez Perce Tribe and environmental groups have opposed aspects of the project; litigation could add cost/delay, even with permits in hand. Reuters
Commodity & capex risk. Antimony price volatility, gold price swings, and construction cost inflation can impact returns. (Macro, no single source—general risk acknowledgment.)
Non-federal permits and execution. Remaining state/local permits, detailed engineering, and early-works execution must stay on schedule. Perpetua Resources

Comparable policy precedents (why the EXIM step matters)

EXIM has increasingly been used to anchor U.S. critical-minerals projects (e.g., Lithium Americas Thacker Pass via DOE; Perpetua via EXIM LOI→PPL). Early letters of interest often precede full Board approvals by ~12–18 months if milestones are met—consistent with the spring 2026 target. Reuters

Bottom line for investors

Perpetua has moved from a permitting story to a financing/construction story.

The combination of (1) final federal permits, (2) explicit national-security rationale (antimony), (3) material DPA funding, (4) $425 M equity raised, and (5) EXIM’s PPL + term sheet positions PPTA as one of the most advanced U.S. critical-minerals names heading into 2026.

Near-term share performance will hinge on landing the royalty/stream, maintaining schedule on early works, and securing EXIM Board approval on the expected timeline. PR Newswire+3PR

Saturday, August 16, 2025

If North American consolidation in the REE/Li market is in the cards, AVL looks to be a consolidation lottery ticket!

Avalon Advanced Materials (TSX: AVL)

Consolidation Driver in the North American REE & Lithium Markets

(Some penny stocks shouldn't be overlooked. I believe AVL is one of those)

1. Strategic Position in REEs

Nechalacho Project (NWT, Canada):
- One of the most advanced REE deposits in North America.
- 2013 DFS gave an after-tax NPV of ~USD $900M (~C$1.2B).
- Contains both light and heavy REEs critical for defense, communications, and EV motors.
- Currently split with Vital Metals (North T Zone) → clear consolidation target for a single operator.
AVL’s Basal Zone holds the majority of resources, positioning the company as a natural consolidator or takeover target.

2. Strategic Position in Lithium

https://www.vmcdn.ca/f/files/nob/avalon-advanced-materials-thunder-bay-site-sign-2.png%3Bw%3D960

https://www.vmcdn.ca/f/files/nob/avalon-thunder-bay-site-placement-map.png%3Bw%3D960

Thunder Bay Lithium Hydroxide Facility (Ontario):
- 2024 PEA showed C$4.1B after-tax NPV and 48% IRR.
- Only planned midstream processing hub linking Ontario/Northern lithium deposits with Southern Ontario EV/battery manufacturing.
- A rare “ready-made” piece of infrastructure for OEMs or lithium miners seeking to capture IRA credits.
Lithium Deposits: Separation Rapids (Kenora), Snowbank, and Lilypad → resource pipeline for Thunder Bay facility.

3. Why Avalon is a Consolidation Prize

Few companies combine REE + lithium assets in one portfolio.
AVL offers both upstream resources (REEs, lithium deposits) and midstream processing (Thunder Bay).
Consolidating AVL allows a buyer to secure:
- Long-life REE supply (Nechalacho).
- A North American lithium hydroxide plant.
- Eligibility for U.S./Canadian government incentives under the IRA and Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy.

4. Potential Suitors & Rationale

Critical Metals (CRML): Synergy with Tanbreez (Greenland); cross-Atlantic REE strategy.
Vital Metals (VML): Logical consolidator of Nechalacho (eliminate split ownership).
MP Materials (MP): U.S. REE giant; Avalon secures Canadian REE + lithium foothold.
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC): Expansion into North America to diversify from Australia.
Lithium Americas / Piedmont Lithium: Thunder Bay plant is the missing midstream link.
Tesla, GM, Ford: Direct EV/battery makers securing feedstock & processing capacity.

5. Buyout Valuation & Escalation Potential

Current Market Cap: ~C$22–25M (@ ~C$0.04/share).
Risk-adjusted strategic value: ~C$300–600M (C$0.50–0.85/share).
Likely opening bid: ~C$1/share (~C$637M).
If multiple suitors compete: Escalation toward C$1.75–2.10/share (~C$1.1–1.3B).
Extreme scenario (Tesla/MP with gov’t backing): Possible bid north of C$2/share if Thunder Bay DFS confirms economics + IRA/Defense contracts lock in demand.

6. Investment Thesis

Underappreciated value: Market assigns only ~C$25M to assets with multi-billion NPVs.
Strategic location: Canada = politically secure jurisdiction, aligned with U.S. supply-chain policies.
Consolidation catalyst: Split ownership at Nechalacho and fragmented lithium supply chain make AVL a natural acquisition target.
Bidding war potential: With REE + lithium both on the strategic critical list, more than one suitor is almost inevitable.

Conclusion

Avalon (AVL) is grossly undervalued relative to its assets. From a consolidation standpoint, it represents one of the few opportunities for REE and lithium players to secure a vertically integrated North American platform.

Entry today (~C$0.04/share) offers exposure to a potential 25×–50× re-rating if a takeover unfolds.
A realistic acquisition could settle around C$1–1.25/share, with upside to C$2/share in a competitive bidding war.

👉 In short: AVL is a textbook “strategic consolidation play” in the REE market, with built-in lithium upside. The mismatch between current valuation and strategic value makes it highly attractive for patient investors — and a natural spark for a bidding war.

The three most likely suitors (MP Materials, Lynas, and CRML) would gain by acquiring Avalon Advanced Materials (AVL), and that could push bidding toward the C$2/share mark.

Takeover Case Comparison: Who Benefits Most from Buying Avalon (AVL)?

1. MP Materials (NYSE: MP)

Profile: Largest U.S. REE producer (Mountain Pass, California), backed by U.S. defense and IRA policies.

What They Gain From AVL:

Nechalacho REE deposit: Adds a second North American REE source, diversifying away from Mountain Pass.
Thunder Bay lithium hydroxide facility: Midstream processing capacity in Canada → critical for EV battery OEM contracts.
Canadian footprint: Strengthens IRA eligibility and helps qualify U.S. automakers for mineral sourcing credits.
Geopolitical leverage: Control over both U.S. and Canadian REEs makes MP the undisputed North American champion.

Why They Might Pay Up:

MP has the balance sheet (US$5B+ market cap) and political support to pay C$1.50–2.00/share for AVL if it locks out Lynas or CRML and secures Canada as a “REE & lithium fortress.”

2. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

Profile: World’s largest REE producer outside China (Mount Weld mine, Australia), with Japanese government support.

What They Gain From AVL:

Nechalacho REE deposit: A second production center outside Australia → diversification + North America expansion.
Thunder Bay facility: Processing hub ties them into the EV battery value chain — an area where Lynas currently lacks direct presence.
Strategic partnerships: Japanese offtakers (Toyota, Sojitz, JOGMEC) could be extended into Canada.
Geopolitical insurance: A hedge against China disruptions and over-reliance on Australia/Malaysia operations.

Why They Might Pay Up:

Lynas is under pressure to expand capacity in Western-friendly jurisdictions.
Could justify C$1.25–1.75/share, possibly more if MP enters the bidding.

3. Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML)

Profile: Developer of the Tanbreez REE project in Greenland, currently advancing a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS).

What They Gain From AVL:

Nechalacho REE deposit: Complements Tanbreez, giving CRML two of the world’s largest non-China REE resources.
Thunder Bay facility: Instant midstream processing — CRML’s missing piece for vertical integration.
Lithium exposure: Expands portfolio beyond REEs, adding lithium hydroxide production → higher relevance to EV/battery markets.
U.S./Canadian critical minerals politics: Strengthens case for DOE/DoD funding, partnerships, and offtake deals.

Why They Might Pay Up:

CRML is smaller than MP or Lynas, so financing a C$1–2/share bid would require partnerships or equity raises.
But the strategic synergy is enormous — owning both Tanbreez and Nechalacho could make CRML a takeover target itself later.
Likely to bid in the C$1.00–1.25/share range, but might stretch higher if MP/Lynas enter the fight.

Who Would Push the Bidding War Toward $2?

MP Materials: Most likely, because of financial capacity and U.S. strategic interest.
Tesla or GM/Ford (dark horses): If they step in for vertical integration and secure lithium hydroxide, they could shock the market with a C$2+ bid.
Lynas: Would bid aggressively if threatened by MP’s Canadian expansion.
CRML: May trigger the bidding, but less likely to win against giants without financial partners.

Investment Takeaway

AVL’s unique REE + lithium + midstream combo makes it the only Canadian consolidator play with immediate strategic relevance.
Base case: Takeover at C$1–1.25/share (C$637M–800M).
Bidding war case: Escalation to C$1.75–2.00/share (~C$1.1–1.3B).
Extreme upside: If OEMs or governments step in, C$2.50–3.00/share is possible, though less likely until DFS updates are complete.

👉 This is why AVL at ~C$0.04 today looks like a consolidation lottery ticket

the downside is limited, but the upside is multiples higher if a bidding war ignites

Ed Note: Disclosure: We've been acquiring shares in AVL UCU CRML

REEs are critical to all cutting edge technologies now and early investors should be rewarded! We just took a small position in our 4th REE stock-CRML

MP Materials has had a tremendous run in July as the REE fever rose. Going forward, there are others to consider as M&A candidates for MP

Rare Earth Elements - Ucore Rare Metals Inc. - update!

Thursday, August 14, 2025

What is the overall value of Ucore Rare Metals if suitors (such as MP Materials) come looking?

Short answer: a defensible sum-of-the-parts range today is roughly US$0.7B–US$1.1B,

with very large upside if REE prices re-rate or if LA-SMC reaches full scale on robust offtakes.

How I get there (quick SOTP)

Bokan–Dotson Ridge (Alaska) — “in-ground”/contained oxide value (GMV):
- The 2013 NI-43-101 PEA plans ~20,104 t of recovered REO over 11 years (incl. ~889 t Dy₂O₃ and 133 t Tb₂O₃). Using current spot/average oxide prices (USGS 2024 averages for Nd/Dy/Tb and Metal.com for others), that contained basket is about US$0.65B; using the new DoD-anchored Nd/Pr floor price of $110/kg raises it to ~US$0.80–0.85B. ucore.com+1U.S. Geological SurveyMetal.com+2Metal.com+2
- For context only, the original PEA (using 2009–2012 price deck) showed post-tax NPV10 ≈ US$368M and pre-tax NPV10 ≈ US$577M; that price deck implied a GMV ≈ US$2.55B, far higher than today’s market. ucore.com
LA-SMC (Alexandria, Louisiana) — strategic separations facility:
- Capacity plan: 2,000 t/y TREO in 2026 → 5,000 t/y in 2027 → 7,500 t/y targeted for 2028.
- Capital & support: Phase-1 CAPEX ~US$50M plus ~US$30M commissioning feedstock; Louisiana’s incentive package totals ~US$15M; U.S. DoD funding includes US$4M (demo) and US$18.4M (scale-up Phase 2). On a replacement-cost/strategic-scarcity basis that supports a US$75–US$225M facility value today (before signed long-term offtakes). ucore.com+2ucore.com+2Metal Tech News
Strategic backdrop (why the premium): the DoD’s recent actions (e.g., a U.S. NdPr floor of ~$110/kg) and ex-China premiums for magnet materials improve the economics of non-China supply chains—directly supporting the case for domestic separation plants like LA-SMC. Barron'sMetal.comReuters

Putting it together (range logic)

Low case (today’s prices & cautious plant value): Bokan GMV ~US$0.65B + LA-SMC US$0.075B ⇒ ~US$0.73B. U.S. Geological SurveyMetal.com
Base case (DoD Nd/Pr floor & mid plant value): Bokan GMV ~US$0.80–0.85B + LA-SMC US$0.15–0.20B ⇒ ~US$0.95B–US$1.05B. Metal.comBarron's
High case (faster ramp/strong premiums): Bokan at higher basket prices + LA-SMC at the top of replacement/strategic range ⇒ ~US$1.1B+ (and much more only if prices revisit 2010–12 levels). ucore.com

Important caveats

GMV ≠ mine value. It ignores operating costs, sustaining capex, taxes, recoveries, and timing. The PEA’s post-tax NPV10 ≈ US$368M (2012 prices) is the best apples-to-apples project-economic anchor until Ucore files an updated study. ucore.com
LA-SMC’s value hinges on execution: feedstock contracts, customer offtakes, and realized separation margins (non-China margins are historically slim without policy support). Reuters

If I put myself in MP Materials’ boardroom shoes and treat Ucore as a strategic acquisition (not just a discounted DCF buy), the “top price” would hinge on three intertwined drivers:

Strategic value premium – locking down U.S.-controlled heavy rare earths (Dy, Tb) and a separation plant in Louisiana, which MP currently lacks in that scale outside its own Mountain Pass light REO focus.
Replacement cost vs. scarcity – it’s not just “what’s it worth now,” but “what would it cost and how long would it take to replicate?” The answer is 7–10 years for a comparable HREE mine, and 3–5 years for a fully permitted and funded separation facility.
Synergy value – LA-SMC could run today on MP’s Mountain Pass feedstock or third-party contracts, and Bokan could feed MP’s magnet material output in later years.

Offer math from MP’s POV

We can run this two ways:

A. Pure project economics + modest premium (conservative)

Base-case intrinsic (NPV10 for Bokan + LA-SMC PV) = ~US$450–550M.
Add 30–40% control premium typical in mining M&A.
Indicative “top” = ~US$600–750M.

B. Strategic scarcity + policy premium (aggressive)

Start from Bokan in-ground basket value (~US$0.80–0.85B) + LA-SMC strategic value (~US$150–200M).
Apply a 15–25% premium for time advantage and geopolitical insurance (MP secures domestic HREEs, keeps them from competitors like Lynas or Energy Fuels).
Indicative “top” = ~US$1.05–1.15B.

Where MP would likely settle

Realistically, MP would probably aim below $1B unless:

HREE prices spike (Dy, Tb, Nd/Pr all ↑ 30–50%+),
or competing bidders (Lynas, Energy Fuels, or a defense-backed fund) enter the room.

Given current market conditions, I think MP’s walk-away ceiling might be ~US$900M–950M, but they’d start a bid much lower, possibly in the $500–600M range to test Ucore’s resolve.

1. Ucore's Current Market Price

On the OTC market (ticker: UURAF), Ucore is trading at around US$2.02 per share as of August 14, 2025.StockhouseStockhouse+13StockInvest+13The Motley Fool+13
On the TSX Venture Exchange (ticker: UCU), it trades at approximately CAD 2.76 per share.Stockhouse+3Investing.com+3TradingView+3

Let's work with the OTC price of US$2.02, since MP Materials would most likely deal in U.S. dollars via a U.S.-focused acquisition transaction.

2. Ucore’s Current Market Capitalization

Using the OTC price:

Market cap is estimated at around US$189 million.The Motley Fool

3. Estimated “Top Price” Offer Value

From our earlier discussion, the “top price” offer from MP Materials could realistically range between US$900 million and US$1.15 billion, depending on strategic synergies, execution risk, and market conditions.

4. Calculating the Premium Over Market Value

To find the implied premium:

Offer Price (USD)	Implied Premium Over Market Cap
US$900 million	= (900 ÷ 189 – 1) ≈ +376%
US$1.05 billion	≈ +456%
US$1.15 billion	≈ +509%

So, MP Materials would be paying roughly 3.8× to over 5× the current market capitalization of Ucore.

5. Context—Is That a Reasonable Premium?

In the mining and strategic minerals sector, especially when the target controls critical, non-China rare earth assets, premiums of 300–500% are not unheard of—provided the buyer is securing supply security, technological capability, or strategic infrastructure that’s difficult or time-consuming to replicate.
That said, for shareholders of Ucore, such an offer (in that 3.8×–5× range) would represent a powerful value realization opportunity—assuming the deal is credible and fully financed.

Summary

If MP Materials were to make an all-cash offer for Ucore, paying up to US$1.05–1.15 billion, that implies a premium of about 450% to over 500% above Ucore’s current market capitalization of ~US$189 million (based on a US$2.02 share price).

In other words: a 3.8×–5× premium—a substantial but arguably justifiable multiple given the strategic value of Ucore’s rare-earth resources and separation facility.

If Ucore Rare Metals were to attract acquisition interest, several entities—ranging from miners to technology firms—could emerge as plausible suitors. Here's a breakdown of the most compelling candidates and why they might be interested:

1. Lynas Rare Earths

Why they might bid:

As the world’s largest rare earth producer outside China, Lynas is already expanding its footprint—including building a heavy rare earths processing plant in Texas backed by US defense funding. A move to acquire Ucore would give it established separation tech (RapidSX™) and facilities in Louisiana, accelerating its domestic US capabilities.
Plus, post-DoD support for U.S. rare earth independence makes Lynas a logical player to consolidate assets.
Ucore.com+12Yahoo Finance+12 Reuters+7

2. Energy Fuels

This U.S. company is already pivoting from uranium into rare earths. It’s commissioning a rare earth separation circuit at its White Mesa Mill in Utah and gaining monazite feed supplies via a Base Resources deal.
An acquisition of Ucore would add advanced separation tech and a strategic Louisiana facility to its vertically integrated vision.
Crux Investor+1

3. Neo Performance Materials

A Canadian company with global operations in rare earth oxides, magnetic powders, and permanent magnets.
If Neo aims to bolster its North American processing footprint, Ucore’s RapidSX™ separation platform and Louisiana site could be attractive.
Reuters+1 Rare Earth Exchanges+15Yahoo Finance+15

4. Solvay, Vacuumschmelze (via Ara Partners), or Other Western REE Processors

Solvay (France) is expanding rare earth oxide separation for magnets, aiming for 2025 launch.
Vacuumschmelze, backed by U.S. private equity (Ara Partners), is building a NdFeB magnet plant in South Carolina.
Both could see strategic value in adding Ucore’s U.S.-based separation tech to their supply chain.
ReutersCrux Investor+1

5. ABx Group or Other Australian REE Miners

Ucore has already signed an MOU with ABx Group for offtake and potential investment in ABx’s Tasmanian ionic-adsorption clay REE project.
A deeper partnership or acquisition could be mutually beneficial—ABx gains downstream processing certainty, while Ucore strengthens its feedstock pipeline.
Yahoo Finance+6Investing News Network (INN)+6Yahoo Finance+6

6. Rare Element Resources

A Wyoming-based REE miner developing the Bear Lodge project.
A merger scenario would create a vertically integrated player: Rare Element’s mining, Ucore’s separation, and even MP Materials’ magnet capabilities.
Rare Earth Exchanges+8 Reuters+8

7. Phoenix Tailings and Defense-Aligned Investors

Phoenix Tailings, a U.S. REE processing startup, has attracted backing from BMW, Yamaha, and venture investors for its low-emission tech and upcoming U.S. facility.
While more of a peer than a suitor, joint ventures, licensing deals, or mutual consolidation for scaling could be on the table.
Reuters

8. Chinese Entities (e.g., Shenghe Resources)

Shenghe is deeply embedded in the global REE market and owns a stake in MP Materials. Although geopolitical sensitivities make outright acquisition unlikely, financial investing or strategic partnerships can’t be fully ruled out.
Note: Canada has shown a willingness to block Chinese REE-related deals on national security grounds.
Wikipedia

Summary Table

Potential Suitor	Strategic Rationale
Lynas Rare Earths	Rapidly scaling US processing; Louisiana facility synergistic
Energy Fuels	Building a vertically integrated REE supply chain
Neo Performance Materials	Strong global presence; would benefit from U.S. separation tech
Solvay / Vacuumschmelze	Western processors seeking U.S.-based capacity
ABx Group (Australia)	Strengthen supply/offtake linkage and downstream investment opportunities
Rare Element Resources	M&A to create a full domestic REE value chain
Phoenix Tailings / VC/Defence allies	Possible tech/joint ventures in low-emission processing
Shenghe Resources	Geopolitically delicate—but financial or strategic interest remains possible

Final Thoughts

Given Ucore’s unique combination of advanced separation technology, DoD support, and a developing U.S. processing facility, it stands out as a strategic asset in the rare-earth sector’s race to de-risk from Chinese dominance.

Acquirers with mining, processing, or defense-aligned profiles are most suited to be suitors.

Full Disclosure: We are Long Ucore, MP and AVL

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Executive summary

What the U.S. Government actually wants here

Project snapshot (Stibnite Gold Project)

Financing & balance sheet (2025)

Technology & advancements

Timeline & catalysts (as of Sept 2025)

Investment thesis

Comparable policy precedents (why the EXIM step matters)

Bottom line for investors

Perpetua Resources (PPTA) — One‑Page Deal Sheet

Investment Thesis (30‑second version)

What the U.S. Government Cares About

Project Snapshot

Financing Status & Structure (in progress)

Timeline & Catalysts

Key Upside Drivers

Key Risks to Underwrite

Monitoring Checklist (Actionable)

Positioning Ideas (illustrative, not advice)

Saturday, August 16, 2025

Avalon Advanced Materials (TSX: AVL)

1. Strategic Position in REEs

2. Strategic Position in Lithium

3. Why Avalon is a Consolidation Prize

4. Potential Suitors & Rationale

5. Buyout Valuation & Escalation Potential

6. Investment Thesis

Conclusion

Takeover Case Comparison: Who Benefits Most from Buying Avalon (AVL)?

1. MP Materials (NYSE: MP)

2. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

3. Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML)

Who Would Push the Bidding War Toward $2?

Investment Takeaway

Related Articles:

Thursday, August 14, 2025

How I get there (quick SOTP)

Putting it together (range logic)

Important caveats

Offer math from MP’s POV

A. Pure project economics + modest premium (conservative)

B. Strategic scarcity + policy premium (aggressive)

Where MP would likely settle

1. Ucore's Current Market Price

2. Ucore’s Current Market Capitalization

3. Estimated “Top Price” Offer Value

4. Calculating the Premium Over Market Value

5. Context—Is That a Reasonable Premium?

Summary

1. Lynas Rare Earths

2. Energy Fuels

3. Neo Performance Materials

4. Solvay, Vacuumschmelze (via Ara Partners), or Other Western REE Processors

5. ABx Group or Other Australian REE Miners

6. Rare Element Resources

7. Phoenix Tailings and Defense-Aligned Investors

8. Chinese Entities (e.g., Shenghe Resources)

Summary Table

Final Thoughts