A U.S. Government Shutdown will affect these companies much more than others!

 

A data-backed, “most exposed” list focused on companies where U.S. federal work is a big slice of revenue (or the core business) 

Grouped by exposure bands and citing recent filings/rankings.

Ultra-high exposure (≈80–100%+ tied to U.S. federal work)

1. SAIC (SAIC) — ~98% of revenue from U.S. Gov’t (prime or sub). SEC

2. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) — reporting pegs U.S. Gov’t at ~98% of revenue. The Wall Street Journal+1

3. Leidos (LDOS) — ~87% from U.S. Gov’t. SEC+1

4. Northrop Grumman (NOC) — 87% to U.S. Gov’t (2024). SEC

5. HII (HII) — military shipbuilding; U.S. Gov’t orders comprise “substantially all” backlog. SEC

6. CACI (CACI) — business overwhelmingly U.S. Gov’t; disclosures show ~97% domestic (U.S. agency-focused). TradingView+1

7. V2X (VVX) — “substantial majority” of revenue from U.S. Gov’t; DoD-centric services. Q4 Capital

Very high exposure (≈60–80%)

8. BWX Technologies (BWXT) — ~76% from U.S. Gov’t (Navy reactors, DOE/NNSA). BWX Technologies Investors

9. Lockheed Martin (LMT) — 73% from U.S. Gov’t (65% DoD). SEC

10. General Dynamics (GD) — 69% from U.S. Gov’t. SEC

11. L3Harris (LHX) — ~74% in Q1’25 from U.S. Gov’t (incl. FMS). Fintel

12. KBR (KBR) — 57% from U.S. Gov’t (FY2024). Q4cdn

High exposure (≈40–60%)

13. RTX (RTX) — U.S. Gov’t ~45% of net sales (ex-FMS). RTX Investors

14. Parsons (PSN) — Federal is a core segment; multiple U.S. federal customer sets each >20% of revenue (heavy federal mix). SEC

15. Maximus (MMS) — Gov’t outsourcing specialist (federal + state); filings show predominantly U.S. program revenue with growing federal exposure. Maximus, Inc.+1

Material exposure (program-critical, though more diversified)

16. Palantir (PLTR) — Gov’t still ~55% of FY2024 revenue; U.S. Gov’t growth +53% Y/Y in Q2’25. Visual Capitalist+1

17. Mercury Systems (MRCY) — Defense electronics pure-play; revenue is predominantly U.S. defense primes/programs. SEC

18. Kratos (KTOS) — Tactical drones/space & defense; revenue largely from U.S. DoD/IC programs. Kratos Defense+1

19. AeroVironment (AVAV) — DoD small UAS/missiles; mix varies with FMS/international but U.S. programs remain core drivers. Aviation Investor+1

20. Huntington Ingalls’ peers / Big 5 integrators (context) — The Top 100 Federal Contractors ranking (FY2024 awards) underscores Leidos, Booz Allen, Lockheed, GD, RTX, L3Harris, SAIC, NOC, CACI as the biggest prime recipients — i.e., most operationally exposed to any shutdown pauses in awards/funding flow. Washington Technology

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Why these names are most at risk in a shutdown

• Revenue concentration: The first dozen derive a majority of sales from the federal wallet; a pause in new awards, mods, or payments hits quickly. (See %s above.)

• Procurement pipeline sensitivity: Top rankings in federal contract awards (Leidos, BAH, LMT, GD, RTX, LHX, SAIC, NOC, CACI) signal heavy reliance on award timing/obligation flow. Washington Technology

• Agency dependence: IT/consulting contractors (BAH, SAIC, LDOS, CACI, PSN, KBR, VVX, MMS) feel shutdowns faster than multi-year, already-appropriated hardware programs, though even primes see new starts and mods slow. (Industry advisories and coverage highlight this dynamic.) Bloomberg Law

Note: Rankings like Washington Technology Top 100 and BGOV200 show who’s biggest by federal obligations (a proxy for exposure), while 10-Ks give the percentage of total company revenue tied to the U.S. Government. For shutdown risk, both matter. Washington Technology+1

Antimony, Gold, the U.S. Government and Perpetua Resources PPTA, what ties these entities together!

 

PPTA is one of the most advanced U.S. critical-minerals names heading into 2026.

Executive summary

Perpetua controls a permitted U.S. mine that would produce gold and, critically, antimony—a defense-critical mineral the U.S. largely imports from China/Russia. 

In 2025 the project cleared its last federal permit, was placed on the FAST-41 transparency dashboard, raised equity to meet project-finance requirements, and on Sept 8, 2025 received a Preliminary Project Letter and indicative term sheet from the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) for up to ~$2 billion of debt. 

Management guides to EXIM Board consideration by spring 2026 and to beginning early-works construction in fall 2025. These steps materially de-risk financing and timing. PR Newswire+3PR 

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What the U.S. Government actually wants here

• Secure antimony supply for national defense. Stibnite would be the "only" domestic mined source of antimony, used in munitions/propellants and other defense systems. Federal statements and company fact sheets repeatedly cite the mine supplying ~35% of U.S. antimony demand in initial years. The Pentagon has already provided DPA Title III funding to advance the project. Reuters+2U.S. Department of War+2

• Reduce dependence on China/Russia. China imposed antimony export controls in 2024; Washington responded by prioritizing domestic critical-minerals projects and fast-tracking reviews (FAST-41 / transparency projects). Reuters+1

• Catalyze private capital with public backstops. EXIM first issued a letter of interest in 2024 (~$1.8 B), followed by the Sept 8, 2025 PPL + indicative term sheet (~$2 B) as due diligence advanced—classic policy sequencing to crowd in equity/stream financing. Reuters+1

• Clean-energy linkages and Grid storage.

  
  
  A portion of Stibnite antimony is designated for Ambri (long-duration liquid-metal batteries), tying the project to grid-storage resilience objectives. Perpetua Resources | Corporate+1

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Project snapshot (Stibnite Gold Project)

• Products: Gold + antimony (open-pit mine, on U.S. Forest Service land). Perpetua Resources

• Scale (as disclosed/reported): Reuters and project materials cite ~35% of U.S. antimony demand in early years and ~450k oz/yr gold at steady state. (Always subject to mine plans/economics.) Reuters

• Permitting: Final federal Record of Decision and USACE Section 404 issued in 2025 after ~8 years of review; project listed on the federal FAST-41 Transparency Projects dashboard. Perpetua Resources+2PR Newswire+2

• ESG/restoration: Plan includes cleanup of a legacy mining district, fish-passage restoration, utility upgrades, and low-carbon grid power supply. Performance.gov

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Financing & balance sheet (2025)

• Equity closed: US$425 million (US$325 M upsized offering + US$100 M private placement to Paulson & Co.) in June 2025 to support EXIM equity needs and working capital. Perpetua Resources | Corporate

• Government support: DPA Title III awards (aggregate >$80 M over time per company IR; recent press details $59.2 M TIA for construction readiness). Perpetua Resources | Corporate+1

• Project debt: EXIM PPL + indicative term sheet for ~$2 Billion received Sept 8, 2025; target Board consideration spring 2026. PR Newswire

• Next leg: Management pursuing a royalty/stream to complete the package (company 10-Q notes royalty/stream + EXIM + equity as the intended structure). SEC

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Technology & advancements

• Mining/processing: Modern open-pit methods with antimony recovery alongside gold; plan integrated with site remediation and long-term water-quality improvements pledged in permits/ROD. Perpetua Resources

• Supply-chain integration: Ambri antimony supply agreement (2021) connects Stibnite feedstock to U.S. grid-scale storage tech, aligning with domestic energy-security policy. PR Newswire

• Programmatic fast-track: Inclusion on FAST-41 transparency list improves inter-agency accountability and schedule certainty during remaining non-federal permits/approvals. Performance.gov

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Timeline & catalysts (as of Sept 2025)

1. Early-works construction start: Fall 2025 (company guidance). PR Newswire

2. Royalty/stream announcement/close (2025–2026). SEC

3. EXIM Board decision: Target spring 2026; term sheet already received with PPL. PR Newswire

4. State/local permits & construction decision (sequenced with financing). Perpetua Resources

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Investment thesis

Why it can work

• Strategic scarcity: Only U.S. mined source of antimony at scale; clear defense & energy-security demand, heightened by China export curbs. Reuters+1

• De-risking milestones stacking up: Final federal permits (2025), equity financing (June 2025), EXIM PPL + indicative term sheet (Sept 2025). PR Newswire+2Perpetua Resources | Corporate+2

• Policy tailwinds: Explicit U.S. government programs (DPA Title III, EXIM) and FAST-41 transparency status signal national-interest priority. PR Newswire+1

• Option on gold: Gold co-product cash flow can enhance project economics and financing flexibility. (Reuters cites ~450k oz/yr at steady state.) Reuters

What to watch / key risks

• Final financing is not done. EXIM’s PPL is preliminary; Board approval, underwriting, covenants and a royalty/stream still need to land. PR Newswire+1

• Litigation/community risk. Nez Perce Tribe and environmental groups have opposed aspects of the project; litigation could add cost/delay, even with permits in hand. Reuters

• Commodity & capex risk. Antimony price volatility, gold price swings, and construction cost inflation can impact returns. (Macro, no single source—general risk acknowledgment.)

• Non-federal permits and execution. Remaining state/local permits, detailed engineering, and early-works execution must stay on schedule. Perpetua Resources

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Comparable policy precedents (why the EXIM step matters)

EXIM has increasingly been used to anchor U.S. critical-minerals projects (e.g., Lithium Americas Thacker Pass via DOE; Perpetua via EXIM LOI→PPL). Early letters of interest often precede full Board approvals by ~12–18 months if milestones are met—consistent with the spring 2026 target. Reuters

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Bottom line for investors

Perpetua has moved from a permitting story to a financing/construction story. 

The combination of (1) final federal permits, (2) explicit national-security rationale (antimony), (3) material DPA funding, (4) $425 M equity raised, and (5) EXIM’s PPL + term sheet positions PPTA as one of the most advanced U.S. critical-minerals names heading into 2026. 

Near-term share performance will hinge on landing the royalty/stream, maintaining schedule on early works, and securing EXIM Board approval on the expected timeline. PR Newswire+3PR 

Perpetua Resources (PPTA) — One‑Page Deal Sheet

As of Sep 16, 2025 (America/Halifax)

Tickers: Nasdaq/TSX: PPTA
Asset: Stibnite Gold Project (Idaho, USA)
Products: Gold (Au) + Antimony (Sb)
Status: Final federal permits secured (2025); transitioning to financing & early‑works construction.

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Investment Thesis (30‑second version)

• Only domestic-scale U.S. antimony source paired with a large gold operation; direct national‑security relevance.

• Policy tailwinds: FAST‑41 transparency, DPA Title III support, and EXIM Bank process advancing.

• De‑risking milestones stacking up: federal permits (Q2’25) → $425M equity raised (Jun ’25) → EXIM PPL + indicative term sheet for up to ~$2B debt (Sep 8, ’25) → early works starting fall ’25.

• Rerating setup: Financing milestones + site mobilization often catalyze valuation in the move from “permit story” to “build story.”

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What the U.S. Government Cares About

• Secure antimony supply for munitions/defense and energy‑storage alloys; reduce reliance on China/Russia.

• Catalyze private capital into U.S. critical‑minerals via EXIM backstop + DPA support.

• Energy security link: Antimony offtake supports long‑duration battery players (e.g., grid‑storage).

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Project Snapshot

• Location: Central Idaho, historic Stibnite district (brownfield restoration integrated into plan).

• Mining/Processing: Open‑pit with antimony recovery circuit alongside gold; modern environmental controls.

• Scale (company/press disclosures): Target to supply a large share of U.S. antimony demand in initial years; meaningful gold output at steady state.

• ESG/Restoration: Legacy cleanup (fish passage, water quality), grid power connection, transparency under FAST‑41.

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Financing Status & Structure (in progress)

• Equity: ~$425M gross proceeds completed Jun ’25 (follow‑on + strategic placement).

• Debt: EXIM Bank Preliminary Project Letter (PPL) + indicative term sheet for up to ~$2B received Sep 8, ’25; target Board consideration spring ’26.

• Royalty/Stream: Management pursuing a project‑level stream/royalty to complete cap stack.

• Use of Proceeds: Early‑works mobilization, long‑lead items, detailed engineering, and project finance readiness.

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Timeline & Catalysts

1. Fall 2025: Early‑works construction begins (site prep, access, utilities).

2. 2025–2026: Announce/close royalty/stream.

3. Spring 2026: EXIM Board decision on project debt package.

4. 2026+: Full‑scale construction decision subject to financing completion & remaining state/local steps.

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Key Upside Drivers

• U.S. antimony re‑shoring; defense procurements; potential strategic stockpiles.

• Gold price tailwind improving project IRRs.

• Visibility from federal programs (EXIM/DPA) crowding in institutional capital.

• Execution on early‑works (on‑time, on‑budget) builds market confidence.

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Key Risks to Underwrite

• Financing not yet final: EXIM remains preliminary; covenants/conditions + stream terms must be acceptable.

• Permitting/Litigation overhangs: Non‑federal permits and potential legal challenges can add time/cost.

• Construction & capex inflation: Cost creep, labor, and supply‑chain pressures.

• Commodity volatility: Antimony pricing (thin market) and gold swings affect returns.

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Monitoring Checklist (Actionable)

• Track: (a) Royalty/stream negotiations; (b) EXIM Board date scheduling; (c) early‑works mobilization photos/updates; (d) state/local permit milestones; (e) offtake/strategic partner news.

• Set alerts for: SEC/SEDAR filings, EXIM docket updates, major construction contracts, and any litigation docket changes.

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Positioning Ideas (illustrative, not advice)

• Core: Accumulate on financing milestones (stream close; EXIM Board approval).

• Event‑driven: Trade around EXIM Board calendar and construction NTP.

• Pairs/Peers: Hedge commodity beta with gold/antimony proxies; monitor U.S. critical‑minerals peer basket.

This one‑pager is a high‑level summary for discussion. For investment decisions, consult primary filings, technical reports, and professional advice.

If North American consolidation in the REE/Li market is in the cards, AVL looks to be a consolidation lottery ticket!

 

 

Avalon Advanced Materials (TSX: AVL)

Consolidation Driver in the North American REE & Lithium Markets

(Some penny stocks shouldn't be overlooked. I believe AVL is one of those)

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1. Strategic Position in REEs

• Nechalacho Project (NWT, Canada):

  • One of the most advanced REE deposits in North America.

  • 2013 DFS gave an after-tax NPV of ~USD $900M (~C$1.2B).

  • Contains both light and heavy REEs critical for defense, communications, and EV motors.

  • Currently split with Vital Metals (North T Zone) → clear consolidation target for a single operator.

• AVL’s Basal Zone holds the majority of resources, positioning the company as a natural consolidator or takeover target.

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2. Strategic Position in Lithium

• Thunder Bay Lithium Hydroxide Facility (Ontario):

  • 2024 PEA showed C$4.1B after-tax NPV and 48% IRR.

  • Only planned midstream processing hub linking Ontario/Northern lithium deposits with Southern Ontario EV/battery manufacturing.

  • A rare “ready-made” piece of infrastructure for OEMs or lithium miners seeking to capture IRA credits.

• Lithium Deposits: Separation Rapids (Kenora), Snowbank, and Lilypad → resource pipeline for Thunder Bay facility.

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3. Why Avalon is a Consolidation Prize

• Few companies combine REE + lithium assets in one portfolio.

• AVL offers both upstream resources (REEs, lithium deposits) and midstream processing (Thunder Bay).

• Consolidating AVL allows a buyer to secure:

  • Long-life REE supply (Nechalacho).

  • A North American lithium hydroxide plant.

  • Eligibility for U.S./Canadian government incentives under the IRA and Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy.

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4. Potential Suitors & Rationale

• Critical Metals (CRML): Synergy with Tanbreez (Greenland); cross-Atlantic REE strategy.

• Vital Metals (VML): Logical consolidator of Nechalacho (eliminate split ownership).

• MP Materials (MP): U.S. REE giant; Avalon secures Canadian REE + lithium foothold.

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC): Expansion into North America to diversify from Australia.

• Lithium Americas / Piedmont Lithium: Thunder Bay plant is the missing midstream link.

• Tesla, GM, Ford: Direct EV/battery makers securing feedstock & processing capacity.

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5. Buyout Valuation & Escalation Potential

• Current Market Cap: ~C$22–25M (@ ~C$0.04/share).

• Risk-adjusted strategic value: ~C$300–600M (C$0.50–0.85/share).

• Likely opening bid: ~C$1/share (~C$637M).

• If multiple suitors compete: Escalation toward C$1.75–2.10/share (~C$1.1–1.3B).

• Extreme scenario (Tesla/MP with gov’t backing): Possible bid north of C$2/share if Thunder Bay DFS confirms economics + IRA/Defense contracts lock in demand.

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6. Investment Thesis

• Underappreciated value: Market assigns only ~C$25M to assets with multi-billion NPVs.

• Strategic location: Canada = politically secure jurisdiction, aligned with U.S. supply-chain policies.

• Consolidation catalyst: Split ownership at Nechalacho and fragmented lithium supply chain make AVL a natural acquisition target.

• Bidding war potential: With REE + lithium both on the strategic critical list, more than one suitor is almost inevitable.

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Conclusion

Avalon (AVL) is grossly undervalued relative to its assets. From a consolidation standpoint, it represents one of the few opportunities for REE and lithium players to secure a vertically integrated North American platform.

• Entry today (~C$0.04/share) offers exposure to a potential 25×–50× re-rating if a takeover unfolds.

• A realistic acquisition could settle around C$1–1.25/share, with upside to C$2/share in a competitive bidding war.

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👉 In short: AVL is a textbook “strategic consolidation play” in the REE market, with built-in lithium upside. The mismatch between current valuation and strategic value makes it highly attractive for patient investors — and a natural spark for a bidding war.

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The three most likely suitors (MP Materials, Lynas, and CRML) would gain by acquiring Avalon Advanced Materials (AVL), and that could push bidding toward the C$2/share mark.

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Takeover Case Comparison: Who Benefits Most from Buying Avalon (AVL)?

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1. MP Materials (NYSE: MP)

Profile: Largest U.S. REE producer (Mountain Pass, California), backed by U.S. defense and IRA policies.

What They Gain From AVL:

• Nechalacho REE deposit: Adds a second North American REE source, diversifying away from Mountain Pass.

• Thunder Bay lithium hydroxide facility: Midstream processing capacity in Canada → critical for EV battery OEM contracts.

• Canadian footprint: Strengthens IRA eligibility and helps qualify U.S. automakers for mineral sourcing credits.

• Geopolitical leverage: Control over both U.S. and Canadian REEs makes MP the undisputed North American champion.

Why They Might Pay Up:

• MP has the balance sheet (US$5B+ market cap) and political support to pay C$1.50–2.00/share for AVL if it locks out Lynas or CRML and secures Canada as a “REE & lithium fortress.”

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2. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

Profile: World’s largest REE producer outside China (Mount Weld mine, Australia), with Japanese government support.

What They Gain From AVL:

• Nechalacho REE deposit: A second production center outside Australia → diversification + North America expansion.

• Thunder Bay facility: Processing hub ties them into the EV battery value chain — an area where Lynas currently lacks direct presence.

• Strategic partnerships: Japanese offtakers (Toyota, Sojitz, JOGMEC) could be extended into Canada.

• Geopolitical insurance: A hedge against China disruptions and over-reliance on Australia/Malaysia operations.

Why They Might Pay Up:

• Lynas is under pressure to expand capacity in Western-friendly jurisdictions.

• Could justify C$1.25–1.75/share, possibly more if MP enters the bidding.

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3. Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML)

Profile: Developer of the Tanbreez REE project in Greenland, currently advancing a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS).

What They Gain From AVL:

• Nechalacho REE deposit: Complements Tanbreez, giving CRML two of the world’s largest non-China REE resources.

• Thunder Bay facility: Instant midstream processing — CRML’s missing piece for vertical integration.

• Lithium exposure: Expands portfolio beyond REEs, adding lithium hydroxide production → higher relevance to EV/battery markets.

• U.S./Canadian critical minerals politics: Strengthens case for DOE/DoD funding, partnerships, and offtake deals.

Why They Might Pay Up:

• CRML is smaller than MP or Lynas, so financing a C$1–2/share bid would require partnerships or equity raises.

• But the strategic synergy is enormous — owning both Tanbreez and Nechalacho could make CRML a takeover target itself later.

• Likely to bid in the C$1.00–1.25/share range, but might stretch higher if MP/Lynas enter the fight.

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Who Would Push the Bidding War Toward $2?

• MP Materials: Most likely, because of financial capacity and U.S. strategic interest.

• Tesla or GM/Ford (dark horses): If they step in for vertical integration and secure lithium hydroxide, they could shock the market with a C$2+ bid.

• Lynas: Would bid aggressively if threatened by MP’s Canadian expansion.

• CRML: May trigger the bidding, but less likely to win against giants without financial partners.

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Investment Takeaway

• AVL’s unique REE + lithium + midstream combo makes it the only Canadian consolidator play with immediate strategic relevance.

• Base case: Takeover at C$1–1.25/share (C$637M–800M).

• Bidding war case: Escalation to C$1.75–2.00/share (~C$1.1–1.3B).

• Extreme upside: If OEMs or governments step in, C$2.50–3.00/share is possible, though less likely until DFS updates are complete.

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👉 This is why AVL at ~C$0.04 today looks like a consolidation lottery ticket

the downside is limited, but the upside is multiples higher if a bidding war ignites

Ed Note: Disclosure: We've been acquiring shares in AVL UCU CRML

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