"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label How I think about investments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label How I think about investments. Show all posts

Thursday, December 18, 2025

My small-investor–oriented framework for targeting investments going into 2026

Caution: If you are a young person, starting out in your career, or if you are in Mid-Career and concerned about the future of employment, I bring to your attention this note from InvestorsPlace Guru, Luke Lango: 

"if you have zero exposure to the companies building the infrastructure of the future, you are betting your entire financial existence on your ability to outwork software that doubles in ability every 18 months.

That is a terrible bet.

The only true hedge against the devaluation of your labor is to own stock in the companies that are benefiting from labor devaluation. You need to be on the receiving end of that wealth transfer".

Now, Forward: 
Grounded in the dominant structural forces already in motion (AI infrastructure, re-industrialization, energy security, biotech inflection points, and geopolitical supply-chain realignment). This is written from the perspective of capital discipline, asymmetric upside, and survivability through volatility.

1. AI Infrastructure & “Picks-and-Shovels”

AI is no longer a software story alone. The bottlenecks are power, cooling, compute density, memory, and networking. These constraints intensify through 2026.

What to target

  • Data-center infrastructure: power management, liquid cooling, thermal systems

  • Semiconductors beyond GPUs: memory (HBM), interconnects, analog/power chips

  • AI-optimized hardware platforms rather than consumer AI apps

Small-investor edge

  • These companies earn revenue regardless of which AI model “wins.”

  • Long contract cycles = visibility.

  • Less valuation risk than pure AI software.

Risk profile: Medium
Reward profile: High but steadier than AI software


2. Energy, Grid Modernization & Energy Storage

AI turns electricity into a strategic asset. Data centers, EVs, reshoring, and defense manufacturing are colliding with aging grids.

What to target

  • Grid infrastructure (transformers, substations, power electronics)

  • Energy storage (lithium, sodium-ion, grid-scale batteries)

  • Nuclear (SMRs) as baseload complements to renewables

Small-investor edge

  • Many grid suppliers are under-owned and not “AI-branded.”

  • Governments are forced buyers.

Risk profile: Low–Medium
Reward profile: Medium–High with strong downside protection


3. Critical Minerals & Strategic Materials

This is industrial policy investing, not commodity speculation. Rare earths, lithium, graphite, nickel, and copper are strategic chokepoints.

What to target

  • Non-Chinese supply chains (U.S., Canada, Australia)

  • Processing & separation, not just mining

  • Assets tied to defense, EVs, robotics, and grid storage

Small-investor edge

  • Valuations are still depressed.

  • Government funding, offtake agreements, and M&A are catalysts.

Risk profile: High
Reward profile: Very high (binary upside)


4. Biotech at Inflection (CRISPR, Base Editing, RNA)

After a brutal bear market, science has outpaced valuations. 2025–2026 is heavy with Phase-2/3 data and potential acquisitions.

What to target

  • Platform technologies, not single-asset stories

  • Companies with cash runway into 2027

  • Assets attractive to big pharma

Small-investor edge

  • Retail often exits at peak pessimism.

  • Takeovers re-price stocks overnight.

Risk profile: High
Reward profile: Very high (event-driven)


5. Quantum Computing (Selective Exposure)

Quantum is moving from science projects to government and enterprise pilots. 2026 is about validation, not mass adoption.

What to target

  • Companies with real deployments and revenue

  • Hardware + software + services ecosystems

  • Government and hyperscaler partnerships

Small-investor edge

  • Early exposure before institutional mandates kick in.

  • Volatility favors disciplined accumulation.

Risk profile: Very High
Reward profile: Extreme asymmetric upside


6. Defense, Autonomy & “Physical AI”

Defense spending is structurally rising, not cyclical. AI + autonomy is redefining warfare and logistics.

What to target

  • Sensors, autonomy software, robotics

  • Suppliers rather than prime contractors

  • Dual-use (civil + defense) technologies

Small-investor edge

  • Less political headline risk than primes.

  • Faster growth rates.

Risk profile: Medium
Reward profile: High


7. Gold, Real Assets & Inflation Hedges (Selective)

Persistent fiscal deficits, geopolitical risk, and currency debasement argue for insurance exposure, not speculation.

What to target

  • High-quality gold producers

  • Royalty/streaming models

  • Avoid over-leveraged miners

Risk profile: Low
Reward profile: Moderate but stabilizing


How a Small Investor Might Allocate (Conceptual)

BucketApprox. WeightPurpose
AI Infrastructure & Semis20–25%Growth with visibility
Energy & Grid15–20%Stability + policy tailwinds
Critical Minerals10–15%Asymmetric upside
Biotech (Inflection)10–15%Event-driven returns
Quantum & Frontier Tech5–10%Moonshot exposure
Defense & Robotics10–15%Structural spending
Gold / Cash Buffer5–10%Volatility control

Key Discipline for 2026

  • Avoid over-concentration in hype narratives

  • Favor infrastructure over apps

  • Insist on balance-sheet survivability

  • Expect volatility — use it

  • Below you’ll find specific Canadian- and U.S.-listed names aligned to the earlier thematic framework, rankings by risk-adjusted return, and model portfolio allocations for three capital levels: $25,000, $50,000, and $100,000. Where possible I’ve prioritized companies with visible revenue, strategic positioning, and multi-year catalysts rather than purely speculative explorers.


1) Thematic Company Lists (Canadian + U.S.)

A. AI Infrastructure & Semiconductors

Canadian-Listed

  • Celestica Inc. (CLS) – electronics manufacturing with strong data-center/Ai infrastructure demand. Investors

U.S./Global

  • NVIDIA (NVDA) – dominant AI accelerator hardware.

  • Broadcom (AVGO) – networking, interconnect, silicon.

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) – AI accelerators, CPUs.

  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) – networking silicon.

Risk Profile: Medium-High
Return Potential: High (leveraged to AI buildouts)


B. Energy & Grid Modernization / Energy Storage

Canadian-Listed

  • Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN) – regulated power & grid operations across North America. Wikipedia

  • Canadian Solar (CSIQ) – solar + battery storage developer. Wikipedia

U.S.

  • NextEra Energy (NEE) – clean energy + grid scale assets.

  • Enphase Energy (ENPH) – solar microinverters + storage management.

  • Tesla (TSLA) – energy storage + EVs (grid demand proxy).

Risk Profile: Medium
Return Potential: Moderate-High


C. Critical Minerals (Lithium, Copper, Rare Earths, Nickel, Uranium)

Canadian

  • First Quantum Minerals (FM) – copper mining with global footprint. Wikipedia

  • Teck Resources (TECK) – diversified base metals (copper, zinc). Wikipedia

  • Alamos Gold (AGI) – gold producer (inflation/insurance asset). Wikipedia

  • (Optional more speculative) TSXV/CSE juniors: cobalt, rare earths, graphite explorers (subject to due diligence) AInvest

U.S.

  • Albemarle (ALB) – lithium producer. Nai500

  • USA Rare Earth (USAR) – rare earth supply exposure (speculative). Nai500

  • Cameco (CCJ) – uranium producer (strategic energy metal). Investors

Risk Profile: Medium-High to High
Return Potential: High (cyclical + secular tailwinds)


D. Biotech at Inflection

U.S. (Selected Platform/Biotech)

  • 10x Genomics (TXG) – genomic platforms.

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) – base editing tech.

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – gene editing.

  • Moderna (MRNA) – RNA platforms.

Risk Profile: High
Return Potential: Very High (event catalysts)


E. Quantum / Frontier Tech

Canadian

U.S.

  • IonQ (IONQ) – quantum computing (U.S.-listed).

  • Rigetti Computing (RGTI) – quantum hardware.

Risk Profile: Very High
Return Potential: Extreme Asymmetric


F. Defense & Autonomy

Canadian

  • CAE Inc. (CAE.TO) – aerospace & defense systems. KoalaGains

  • Kraken Robotics (PNG.TO) – defense robotics & sensors. KoalaGains

U.S.

  • Lockheed Martin (LMT)

  • Raytheon / RTX (RTX)

  • Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Risk Profile: Medium
Return Potential: Medium-High


G. Gold / Inflation Hedge

Canadian

  • Alamos Gold (AGI) – physical gold producer. Wikipedia

U.S.

  • Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Risk Profile: Lower
Return Potential: Medium (insurance hedge)


2) Risk-Adjusted Ranking (Highest to Lower)

RankThemeTypical VolatilityExpected Risk-Adjusted Return
1AI Infrastructure & SemiconductorsMedium-HighHigh
2Energy & Grid ModernizationMediumMedium-High
3Critical MineralsHighHigh (cyclical support)
4Defense & AutonomyMediumMedium-High
5Biotech at InflectionVery HighVery High (event risk)
6Quantum / Frontier TechVery HighExtreme (long horizon)
7Gold / Inflation HedgeLowerStable / Moderating

Interpretation:

  • Best blend of growth and volatility control: AI infrastructure and energy grid.

  • Higher expected return but more swings: critical minerals and defense.

  • Highest upside but binary events: biotech and quantum.


3) Model Portfolios

Below are diversified allocations with discrete weightings calibrated for small investors. Each portfolio mixes growth, strategic infrastructure, and risk buffers.


A) $25,000 Portfolio (Balanced Growth)

ThemeAvg %Example Tickers$ Allocation
AI Infrastructure22%NVDA, CLS$5,500
Energy / Grid18%NEE, AQN$4,500
Critical Minerals18%ALB, FM$4,500
Defense12%RTX, CAE$3,000
Biotech10%TXG$2,500
Gold Hedge10%AGI$2,500
Quantum10%IONQ$2,500

B) $50,000 Portfolio (Growth + Stability)

ThemeAvg %Example Tickers$ Allocation
AI Infrastructure24%NVDA, AMD, CLS$12,000
Energy / Grid18%NEE, CSIQ, AQN$9,000
Critical Minerals18%ALB, CCJ, TECK$9,000
Defense12%LMT, CAE$6,000
Biotech12%TXG, BEAM$6,000
Gold Hedge6%NEM$3,000
Quantum10%IONQ, QSE$5,000

C) $100,000 Portfolio (Higher Conviction + Diversified)

ThemeAvg %Example Tickers$ Allocation
AI Infrastructure26%NVDA, AVGO, CLS$26,000
Energy / Grid18%NEE, AQN, ENPH$18,000
Critical Minerals20%ALB, FM, TECK, CCJ$20,000
Defense12%LMT, RTX, CAE$12,000
Biotech12%TXG, BEAM, CRSP$12,000
Gold Hedge4%AGI, NEM$4,000
Quantum8%IONQ, RGTI$8,000

4) Practical Notes & Risk Controls

Rebalancing:

  • Quarterly rebalance with cutoffs for stop-loss discipline.

  • Reduce biotech/quantum if catalysts slip.

Diversification guardrails:

  • No single ticker >10% (except AI infrastructure leaders).

  • Tactical cash buffer (5–10%) during drawdowns.

Tax considerations: