starting from a blank sheet today—August 26, 2026—and the mandate were simply:
Build a Canadian strategic-resources portfolio that could benefit from deteriorating Canada-U.S. trade relations, Canadian export diversification, defence/energy security and the Western world's need for non-Chinese resource supply.
My "Know Nothing About the Investor" portfolio
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Strategic resource | Weight | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nutrien | NTR | Potash | 20% | Exceptional Canadian leverage over U.S. agriculture |
| 2 | Cameco | CCO | Uranium | 20% | Nuclear/energy-security winner |
| 3 | Canadian Natural Resources | CNQ | Oil & gas | 15% | Massive reserves + global diversification |
| 4 | Suncor | SU | Oil | 12.5% | Integrated oil + export diversification |
| 5 | Teck Resources | TECK.B | Copper | 12.5% | Electrification/defence/AI infrastructure |
| 6 | Cenovus | CVE | Oil & refining | 10% | Heavy crude + integrated downstream |
| 7 | Enbridge | ENB | Energy infrastructure | 10% | Owns the pipes rather than betting on commodity price |
That is a considerably better risk-adjusted portfolio for an unknown Canadian investor.
Canada is actively pursuing exactly the broader strategy behind this portfolio: expanding global market access for Canadian oil, accelerating critical-mineral production and processing, and reducing excessive dependence on the United States. Ottawa's July agreement with Alberta and the oil-sands producers explicitly calls for expanded global market access and production growth.
But which companies could actually benefit from the trade war?
This is the more important distinction. Being strategically important doesn't automatically make a stock a trade-war winner.
#1 — Nutrien:
If forced to select one Canadian resource company whose strategic importance increases because of this dispute, I would pick Nutrien.
Canada is the world's leading potash producer. And the current U.S. tariff regime specifically exempts potash—an important signal that Washington recognizes how difficult it would be to disrupt that supply.
Nutrien therefore possesses something unusual:
pricing power + scarce resource + enormous U.S. dependence + global alternative customers.
If Canada diversifies additional potash toward Brazil, India and Asia, Nutrien isn't trapped by the American market.
That is genuine geopolitical optionality.
Trade-war beneficiary score: 9/10.
#2 — Cameco: perhaps the best long-term strategic asset
Cameco is somewhat different.
I wouldn't buy it because I expect Canada to restrict uranium exports. I don't.
I'd buy it because this trade conflict reinforces the value of secure, allied, non-Russian/non-Chinese nuclear fuel supply.
Canada is already the world's second-largest uranium producer, and Cameco's mines produce the purest uranium on the planet, by a factor 10
The enormous buildout of electricity generation required for AI/data centres plus Western nuclear restarts and energy-security concerns creates a structural uranium story independent of Trump.
The trade war merely strengthens the strategic premium attached to Saskatchewan uranium.
Trade-war/geopolitical beneficiary score: 9/10.
#3 — CNQ: my preferred Canadian oil producer
I would slightly favour Canadian Natural Resources over Suncor and Cenovus for this particular portfolio.
The key reason isn't retaliation.
It's market diversification.
Canada's long-standing problem was:
enormous oil reserves + essentially one customer.
TMX materially changes that equation, and Ottawa is now explicitly pursuing additional West Coast export capacity. The July federal-Alberta-oil industry agreement calls for expanded and diversified global market access and substantial oil-sands production growth.
That potentially increases the strategic value of enormous long-life Canadian reserves.
CNQ owns an extraordinary amount of them.
Score: 8.5/10.
#4 — Teck: the one I might overweight
Copper is an interesting case because it doesn't require Canada to weaponize anything.
Canadian copper exports to the United States have actually surged—running about 40% above their 2024 average, according to the Bank of Canada.
Meanwhile copper sits at the intersection of:
AI data centres + electrical grids + EVs + robotics + defence + renewable energy + conventional infrastructure.
That's exactly the sort of commodity I want exposure to regardless of whether the Canada-U.S. dispute gets better or worse.
And that gives Teck an attractive characteristic:
The thesis doesn't require the trade war to continue.
If Canada-U.S. relations improve, copper demand remains.
If relations deteriorate and Canada accelerates trade with Europe and Asia, Teck has global customers.
If Western countries accelerate strategic-resource investment, copper benefits again.
Score: 8.5/10.
What about Microcaps like Ucore and Canada Nickel?
This is where knowing nothing about the investor makes the biggest difference.
I wouldn't put either into the seven-stock core portfolio.
Not because I dislike them.
Because they represent something fundamentally different.
Ucore (UCU) is essentially a venture-style bet on successful commercialization and scaling of rare-earth separation infrastructure.
Canada Nickel (CNC) is substantially a project-development/execution/financing bet.
Neither belongs in the same risk category as CNQ, Nutrien or Cameco.
Canada is unquestionably pushing this sector aggressively. Ottawa announced more than C$3.6 billion of new critical-mineral programs and investments this year, while its Critical Minerals Strategy now has roughly C$3.87 billion allocated and explicitly contemplates equity investments, loan guarantees, offtake agreements and strategic stockpiling.
That creates potentially enormous upside for the right development-stage company.
But enormous strategic importance doesn't eliminate:
financing risk, dilution risk, construction risk, technology risk, permitting risk and execution risk.
So I'd put Ucore/CNC into a separate 5–10% speculative satellite allocation, rather than pretend they're equivalent to Nutrien or Cameco.
There's also a company I'd reconsider: Enbridge
ENB isn't going to produce enormous alpha merely because Canada and the United States quarrel.
In fact, its integrated North American footprint makes a serious trade rupture undesirable.
But that's precisely why I like it in the portfolio.
If the thesis turns out to be wrong—Trump and Carney reach an agreement and the trade war largely disappears—Enbridge doesn't suddenly lose its investment case.
It gives the portfolio ballast.
Think of it as:
NTR/CCO/TECK = strategic-resource growth
CNQ/SU/CVE = energy/resource diversification
ENB = infrastructure/income stabilizer
That's a much more coherent construction.
What changes my perspective
I would stop thinking about this as a "stocks Canada can weaponize against America" portfolio.
That's too narrow.
I'd instead invest in:
"Resources the world increasingly needs that Canada can sell to more than one customer."
That distinction is crucial.
Canada's weakness isn't lack of resources.
It's historically been customer concentration.
Even today, the United States takes approximately 57% of Canada's critical-mineral exports, worth about C$28.8 billion in 2025.
The emerging Canadian strategy is therefore not simply retaliation against America. It's:
produce more → process more in Canada → build Pacific/Atlantic infrastructure → diversify customers → develop allied supply chains → reduce U.S. dependency.
Natural Resources Canada's current 2026–27 plan explicitly calls for vertically integrated critical-mineral supply chains, strategic stockpiling and partnerships with G7 and NATO countries.
That is a much more durable investment thesis than betting on tariffs.
Therefore, knowing nothing about the investor, my top five would be:
1. Nutrien — NTR ★★★★★
2. Cameco — CCO ★★★★★
3. Canadian Natural Resources — CNQ ★★★★½
4. Teck Resources — TECK.B ★★★★½
5. Suncor — SU ★★★★
And if someone told me, "Forget diversification; give me the three Canadian stocks with the best combination of strategic importance, secular growth and potential upside from Canada's economic realignment," I would narrow it further to:
NTR + CCO + TECK.B
That's actually the three-stock Canadian strategic-resource basket I find most interesting right now. It gives you food security + nuclear/energy security + electrification/industrial security without requiring the Canada-U.S. trade war to get worse for the investment thesis to work.
