"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

No longer just a search engine (Google) Alphabet Inc. is demonstrating robust growth and innovation across its AI, quantum computing, and autonomous vehicle segments


Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Investment & Business Report – April 2025


Executive Summary

Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, continues to solidify its position as a leader in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, autonomous vehicles, and data infrastructure. With robust financial performance and strategic partnerships, Alphabet is poised for sustained growth heading into 2026.


Artificial Intelligence (AI) Innovations

Gemini 2.0 and AI Ecosystem

In December 2024, Google unveiled Gemini 2.0, a multimodal AI model capable of generating audio and images. This model enhances functionalities across Google's products, including AI Overviews in Search, Project Astra, Project Mariner, and Jules for coding assistance. Gemini 2.0 represents a foundation for the emerging era of agentic AI, with broader deployment expected in the coming year.The Verge+2The Verge+2blog.google+2

AI Overviews and User Reach

As of Q1 2025, Google's AI Overviews in Search reach over 1.5 billion users monthly. Originally launched in May 2024, AI Overviews have expanded in functionality, now covering a broader range of queries and incorporating ads to compete with other AI search tools like ChatGPT Search and Perplexity.The Verge


Quantum Computing Advancements

Willow Quantum Chip

In December 2024, Google introduced Willow, a 105-qubit superconducting quantum processor. Willow achieved a benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years, demonstrating its potential for solving complex problems beyond the reach of classical computers.Google Cloud+6Wikipedia+6blog.google+6blog.google+1Wikipedia+1



Commercialization Outlook

Google's head of Quantum AI, Hartmut Neven, predicts that commercial quantum computing applications will be realized within five years, with innovations in fields like materials science, medicine, and energy.thequantuminsider.com+1Wikipedia+1


Waymo: Autonomous Vehicle Leadership

Operational Expansion

Waymo, Alphabet's autonomous ride-hailing arm, continues expanding its service across the U.S., including new cities like Austin, Atlanta, and internationally in Tokyo. 

The company now operates over 250,000 rides weekly in U.S. cities including San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, with planned expansions to Atlanta, Miami, and Washington, DC.Barron's+5Investor's Business Daily+5Waymo+5Barron's+2Business Insider+2Waymo+2



Strategic Partnerships

Waymo has announced plans to explore a collaboration with Toyota to accelerate the development of autonomous driving technologies. As part of the potential partnership, 

Toyota will build a new autonomous vehicle platform to be integrated into Waymo’s self-driving fleet. 

Additionally, the companies aim to jointly enhance next-generation personally owned vehicles using Waymo's autonomous vehicle technology.Forbes+3Reuters+3Waymo+3


Data Infrastructure and AI Synergy

Alphabet's extensive data infrastructure supports its AI and quantum computing initiatives. The company's data centers provide the computational power necessary for training large AI models and conducting complex quantum simulations. This synergy between data infrastructure and advanced technologies positions Alphabet to maintain its competitive edge.


Financial Performance

Q1 2025 Highlights

Cash Position

As of March 31, 2024, Alphabet reported operating cash flow of $28.8 billion for the quarter, reflecting strong liquidity to support ongoing investments in AI, quantum computing, and other strategic areas.SEC


Stock Performance and Outlook

Alphabet's stock (GOOGL) is currently trading at $160.16, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.88 trillion. The company maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.91, indicating strong investor confidence.Yahoo Finance


Conclusion

Alphabet Inc. demonstrates robust growth and innovation across its AI, quantum computing, and autonomous vehicle segments. With strong financials and strategic partnerships, the company is well-positioned to continue its leadership in the technology sector heading into 2026.


Recent Developments in Alphabet's Strategic Initiatives

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

AEVA Technologies is evolving into a platform sensing company, not just an auto lidar supplier. The Eve 1 sensor launch opens an entirely new industrial market, significantly de-risking the business from the long automotive adoption cycles.



Investment and Business Report: AEVA Technologies Inc. (AEVA)

Date: April 29, 2025


📍 Executive Summary

AEVA Technologies is transitioning from being "just a lidar company" for autonomous vehicles to becoming a diversified precision sensing leader across automotive, industrial automation, robotics, and manufacturing sectors.
The launch of Eve 1, its sub-micron precision displacement sensor, expands AEVA’s total addressable market (TAM) by ~$4 billion, positioning the company strongly into high-value industrial markets with a unique technological edge.

AEVA's FMCW (Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave) lidar remains its core differentiation, and now the CoreVision chip will enable scalable production for both automotive and non-automotive applications, creating multiple revenue streams.


⚙️ Technology and Advancements

  • FMCW 4D Lidar: AEVA’s FMCW lidar technology measures both distance and instant velocity, a key differentiator from traditional time-of-flight lidars (like those from Luminar, Ouster, or Innoviz).


    • Advantages: Higher range, lower power consumption, direct velocity measurement, and immunity to interference and ambient light.

  • CoreVision™ Chip:

    • Custom silicon integrating FMCW lidar onto a compact, scalable platform.


    • Powers both automotive lidar and the new Eve 1 displacement sensor.

    • Provides edge processing directly on the chip (important for real-time industrial sensing).

  • Eve 1 Displacement Sensor:

    • Precision: Sub-micron accuracy (< 1/100th of a human hair).

    • Range: Up to 20 meters.

    • Works across different materials and lighting conditions.

    • Compact, all-in-one system.

    • Addresses high-growth markets: manufacturing automation, quality inspection, robotics, industrial metrology, semiconductor fabrication.


📊 Financial Overview (as of latest filings - Q1 2025)

MetricValue
Cash and Cash Equivalents~$180 million
DebtMinimal (~$5 million)
Quarterly Revenue~$3.5 million (expected to grow rapidly with Eve 1)
Quarterly Net Loss~$30 million
Cash Burn Rate~$25-30 million/quarter
Runway~6-7 quarters at current burn rate
Gross Margins~Negative (due to early-stage scaling, but expected to improve significantly with Eve 1 industrial margins)

Note: Automotive lidar programs are extremely long-cycle, but Eve 1 in manufacturing will allow faster revenue generation due to shorter industrial sales cycles.


📦 Customers and Partnerships

Automotive Sector:

  • Volkswagen Group: Selected AEVA's lidar for Level 4 autonomous driving programs via CARIAD (VW’s software division).

  • Porsche: AEVA's FMCW lidar is being tested for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS).

  • Additional Partnerships: Top 10 global OEMs are under evaluation/engagements (names undisclosed for competitive reasons).

Non-Automotive (Industrial/Robotics):
(New with Eve 1 announcement)

  • Manufacturing Automation: Potential major customers include semiconductor fabs (like TSMC, Intel), robotics companies, high-end manufacturing plants (BMW, Tesla, GE, etc.).

  • Industrial Quality Control: Enabling 3D metrology and defect inspection.


🏦 Institutional Investors

Top institutional investors currently holding AEVA shares:

  • Softbank (large early backer, strategic investor)

  • Lux Capital (deeptech/automation-focused VC fund)

  • Canaan Partners

  • Baillie Gifford (small stake)

  • BlackRock (via passive index funds)

  • Vanguard (via passive index funds)

Ownership by long-term investors focused on emerging technology is relatively strong despite the small market cap (~$250 million as of today).


🧠 Competitive Positioning

CompanyStrengthsWeaknesses
AEVAFMCW lidar, sub-micron Eve 1 sensor, scalable silicon, multi-market expansionEarly-stage revenue; execution risk
LuminarStrong auto partnerships (Volvo, Mercedes)Time-of-Flight tech weaker for industrial
InnovizBMW contract for lidarNo expansion yet into industrial
OusterBroad low-cost lidarLower precision; still restructuring
HesaiDominates China marketHigh U.S. regulatory risk

AEVA is unique because it combines:

  • Slimmest Long-Range High-Resolution Automotive-Grade 4D LiDAR

    For SAE L3/L4 Automated Driving in Production Programs (Available in 2026)

  • Short-range precision industrial sensing,


  • Proprietary silicon (CoreVision),

  • Scalable platform for cross-industry use.


🚀 Growth Potential Through 2030

YearKey Milestones
2025-2026Revenue inflection from Eve 1 in manufacturing sector
2026-2027First series production of FMCW lidar in premium vehicles
2027-2028Expansion into robotics and aerospace sectors
2028-2030AEVA becomes multi-sector sensing leader (auto + industrial)

Revenue projection (internal estimates + analyst models):

  • 2025: ~$10-15 million

  • 2026: ~$50-70 million

  • 2027: ~$150-200 million

  • 2030: Potentially $500 million+ if Eve 1 adoption scales and multiple vehicle programs launch with AEVA lidar.


📈 Bull Case vs Bear Case

ViewBull CaseBear Case
TechnologyFMCW becomes dominant in automotive and industrial marketsFMCW adoption slower than expected; traditional lidar still dominates
Revenue GrowthEve 1 wins major industrial clients; auto production rampsSlow industrial adoption; auto production delays
FinancialsMargins expand as CoreVision scales; profitability by 2027Prolonged cash burn leads to dilution
Stock Price Potential5x–10x from today’s level by 2029-2030Minimal gains; risk of M&A at depressed valuation

📚 Summary and Investment Thesis

AEVA Technologies is evolving into a platform sensing company, not just an auto lidar supplier.
The Eve 1 sensor launch opens an entirely new industrial market, significantly de-risking the business from the long automotive adoption cycles.

If AEVA:

  • Successfully scales Eve 1 industrial sales, and

  • Launches its first automotive lidar into production by ~2027,

then it could grow revenue >10x from today’s levels by 2030.

At today's ~$250M valuation, the risk-reward is very favorable, particularly considering the diversified industrial+automotive growth story and the proprietary CoreVision chip platform.


Conclusion: AEVA is a High-Risk, High-Reward Deeptech Play With Emerging Multi-Sector Tailwinds.


May 2025


Previous/related articles:

AEVA technologies has developed a number of partnerships with major auto makers and suppliers!



Monday, April 28, 2025

How can a small investor invest in the most advanced robot and robotics companies today?


Here's a clear, structured guide for how a small investor can invest today in advanced robotics companies:


🔹 1. Buy Stocks of Leading Robotics Companies (Public Companies)

These are directly accessible through any online brokerage account (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Wealthsimple, etc.).

Top Advanced Robotics Stocks Today:

CompanyFocusWhy It’s Advanced
Tesla (TSLA)Humanoid Robot (Optimus), Factory automationTesla’s Optimus is among the most hyped humanoid robots
Nvidia (NVDA)AI chips for robotics (Isaac platform, Jetson chips)Core supplier of robot "brains"
ABB (ABB)Industrial roboticsABB Robotics is a global automation leader
Rockwell Automation (ROK)Smart factoriesAdvanced industrial automation
Boston Dynamics (owned by Hyundai, private)Humanoid, quadruped robots (Spot, Atlas)Most agile physical robots yet, but not public
Symbotic (SYM)Warehouse automation robotsPartners with Walmart and other giants
UiPath (PATH)Robotic process automation (software bots)Focused on software robots, not physical robots
Teradyne (TER)Owns Universal Robots (cobots)Leading collaborative robot maker

🔹 2. Invest in Robotics-Focused ETFs

If you want diversified exposure across many robotics companies without picking individual stocks, consider ETFs:

ETFWhat It Invests In
Global X Robotics & AI ETF (BOTZ)Stocks like Nvidia, ABB, Keyence, Fanuc
ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF (ROBO)Diversified industrial and AI robotics
iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (IRBO)More diversified, includes software AI too

📌 Note: BOTZ is probably the most focused if you want "physical" robot makers.


🔹 3. Indirect Exposure via Suppliers

Many robot companies rely on advanced component suppliers like:

SupplierWhy It Matters
SiFive (private)RISC-V processors for robotics
Brainchip Holdings (BRCHF/BCHPY)Neuromorphic processors for smart robots
Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC)Low-power FPGAs in vision and edge robotics
Ambarella (AMBA)Vision AI chips for robotics and drones

If Tesla’s Optimus or Boston Dynamics robots scale, small chip suppliers could profit big.


🔹 4. Private Company Exposure (Harder, but Possible)

Some companies like Boston Dynamics are private (Hyundai owns 80%) — but you could:

  • Buy Hyundai Motor Co. (HYMTF / 005380.KQ): Boston Dynamics' parent.

  • Look at venture ETFs (like ARK Venture Fund or OurCrowd) that sometimes back early-stage robotics firms.


🔹 5. Speculative but Exciting Bets

If you want to place some high-risk/high-reward bets:

  • Agility Robotics (building humanoid robot "Digit") — will IPO soon 🚀

  • Figure AI (working on humanoid robots, backed by Jeff Bezos, OpenAI) — private, but huge interest.

When they go public, they could be massive opportunities.


🔹 Quick Investment Strategy for Small Investors

Investment TypeHow Much (example for $10,000)Why
Core Stocks (Tesla, Nvidia, ABB)50%Safe, established robotics leaders
Robotics ETFs (BOTZ, ROBO)30%Diversification across many robotics plays
Suppliers (e.g., LSCC, BRCHF)10%Potential for massive upside
Speculative Future IPOs (Agility, Figure)10%Optional, high-risk/high-reward

✳️ Summary

  • Start today with public stocks and ETFs.

  • Add suppliers to catch behind-the-scenes wins.

  • Watch for IPOs of humanoid robotics startups.

  • Here’s a carefully designed sample "Robotics Growth Portfolio" (2025–2030) built specifically for a small-to-medium investor who wants high exposure to advanced robotics but still balance risk. (Developed by Chat GPT)


    🚀 Robotics Growth Portfolio (2025–2030)

    Asset TypeCompany / ETF% AllocationWhy It's Included
    🔹 Core Robotics StockTesla (TSLA)20%Optimus humanoid robot; factory automation; AI leader
    🔹 Core Robotics StockNvidia (NVDA)20%Critical AI + Robotics chips (Isaac, Jetson)
    🔹 Core Robotics StockABB Ltd. (ABB)10%Industrial robots, global automation leader
    🔹 Diversification ETFGlobal X Robotics & AI ETF (BOTZ)15%Diversified exposure to 30+ robotics companies
    🔹 Diversification ETFROBO Global Robotics ETF (ROBO)10%More balanced exposure (small & mid-cap too)
    🔹 Supplier BetLattice Semiconductor (LSCC)8%Edge AI + Robotics processors; huge growth in smart robots
    🔹 Supplier BetBrainChip Holdings (BRCHF or BCHPY)5%Neuromorphic AI chips — brain-like processing for robots
    🔹 International RoboticsHyundai Motor (HYMTF)5%Owns Boston Dynamics (Spot, Atlas robots)
    🔹 Speculative IPO WatchlistReserved for Agility Robotics, Figure AI IPOs7%Humanoid robot startups; allocate when public

    📈 How This Portfolio Works:

    FeatureBenefit
    Core GrowthTesla, Nvidia, ABB are already profitable leaders
    DiversificationBOTZ + ROBO spread risk across many companies
    Hidden UpsideSuppliers like LSCC, BrainChip could skyrocket if robotics accelerates
    Future MoonshotsAgility Robotics + Figure could be "the next Tesla of humanoid robots" if they IPO well

    🧠 Smart "Tactical Moves" You Could Make:

    • Buy in tranches: For example, split your buys over a few months in case of market dips.

    • Rebalance yearly: Trim gains from big winners (e.g., Nvidia) and add to lagging sectors (e.g., small-cap robotics).

    • Stay tuned for IPOs: Agility Robotics and Figure AI IPOs could be game-changers — reserve cash.


    ⚡ Bonus Tip:

    If you really want to "juice" this portfolio for 2025–2030, add a 5% position in AI Infrastructure, such as:

    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) → servers running robot AI

    • Arista Networks (ANET) → robotic cloud networking

    Because advanced robots will depend heavily on cloud compute and edge data centers.


    📊 Visual Summary:

    Here’s how your $10,000 would split:

    • $2,000 Tesla

    • $2,000 Nvidia

    • $1,000 ABB

    • $1,500 BOTZ ETF

    • $1,000 ROBO ETF

    • $800 Lattice Semiconductor

    • $500 BrainChip

    • $500 Hyundai

    • $700 Reserved for Agility / Figure IPOs


    🔥 Final Thought:

    This portfolio gives you "full-spectrum exposure" — from today's leaders to tomorrow's humanoid robots — with a reasonable balance between growth and speculation.