"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"

Friday, June 13, 2025

Nuclear Fusion: Could it be the most important tech revolution since fire?

 


Several public companies are actively advancing fusion energy technology—some directly and others via investments, partnerships, or spinouts. Here’s a breakdown of the most relevant public companies, their role in fusion, and how far along they are:


🔬 Direct Fusion Developers (Public or Public via SPAC/IPO Route)

1. TAE Technologies (via potential IPO partner)

  • Not yet public, but may go public soon (rumored).

  • Partnered with: Google, Sumitomo, Chevron, and others.

  • Focus: Field-reversed configuration (FRC) fusion.

  • Stage: Late prototype phase (Norman machine tested; Copernicus under development).

  • Revenue: None (pre-commercial).

➡️ Closest public exposure: through Google (Alphabet - NASDAQ: GOOGL), which supports TAE’s AI modeling.


2. Helion Energy (indirect via Microsoft & OpenAI links)

  • Private, but has agreements with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) for power purchase starting 2028.

  • Backed by Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) and funded over $600M+.

  • Stage: Working on its seventh prototype “Polaris” aiming for net energy in 2024–2025.

  • Approach: Pulsed, magneto-inertial fusion (deuterium-helium-3).

➡️ Indirect public exposure: through Microsoft’s deal & Nvidia’s AI involvement.


3. General Fusion

  • Still private, backed by Bezos Expeditions and Canadian government.

  • Uses magnetized target fusion (MTF).

  • Stage: Demo plant being built in the UK; not yet achieving net energy.

➡️ Public exposure via partners like Schneider Electric (EPA: SU) and potential future IPO.


⚛️ Public Companies with Fusion Stakes, Investments, or Tech Exposure

4. Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL)

  • Invested in TAE Technologies since 2014.

  • Provides AI tools for modeling plasma physics.

  • Exposure is indirect, but increasing.


5. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

  • Invested in TAE Technologies and Zap Energy.

  • Actively seeking clean energy diversification via fusion R&D partnerships.


6. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)

  • Has a Skunk Works compact fusion reactor program.

  • Approach: High-beta magnetic mirror machine.

  • Stage: Prototype still under wraps; unproven if scalable yet.


7. BWX Technologies (NYSE: BWXT)

  • Designs nuclear reactors and components; has contractual work supporting fusion R&D (including work with the U.S. DOE and national labs).

  • Strong positioning as a supplier for fusion devices in the long term.


🧪 Companies with Research or Supply Chain Roles

8. Honeywell International (NASDAQ: HON)

  • Involved in advanced materials, control systems, and diagnostics used in plasma and reactor control.

  • May benefit as a supplier or integrator.

9. Cameco (NYSE: CCJ / TSX: CCO)

  • World’s largest uranium supplier, and could benefit if tritium breeding becomes commercially viable in deuterium-tritium fusion.


🔮 Most Advanced Fusion Developers (Private, but IPO Possible Soon)

CompanyCurrent StatusEnergy Gain?Target DeploymentPublic Access
Helion EnergyBuilding PolarisExpected 2024By 2028 (MSFT deal)Not yet, via MSFT
TAE TechnologiesDeveloping CopernicusNo2030sNot yet, via GOOG
General FusionDemo plant buildingNo~2030Private
First Light FusionUK-based, uses projectile impact fusionNoLate 2020s–2030sPrivate

💡 Summary: Public Companies You Can Buy Now with Fusion Exposure

CompanyTickerRole in FusionDevelopment Stage
AlphabetGOOG/GOOGLTAE Technologies investorR&D support
MicrosoftMSFTPower-purchase deal w/ HelionCommercialization target 2028
ChevronCVXInvestor in TAE & ZapDiversification into clean energy
LockheedLMTCompact fusion R&DPrototype-only
BWX TechBWXTComponent supplierSteady nuclear work
HoneywellHONControls & materialsSupport role

If you're looking for direct exposure to pure-play fusion, no company is publicly listed yet—but Helion, TAE, and Zap Energy are the most likely IPO candidates in the next 2–3 years.

Here’s a two-part response for a potential fusion-themed investment portfolio, blending current public exposure with speculative positioning for future IPOs:


✅ PART 1: Fusion-Linked Public Portfolio Strategy (2025)

These companies either invest in fusion developers, supply critical technology, or stand to benefit from commercialization.

TickerCompanyRole in FusionAllocation (%)Rationale
GOOG / GOOGLAlphabetInvestor in TAE Technologies25%AI support and early fusion R&D exposure through TAE. Also exposed to AI and quantum.
MSFTMicrosoftFusion power offtake agreement with Helion Energy25%First fusion-related energy buyer. Strong play on applied AI and commercial deployment.
CVXChevronInvestor in multiple fusion ventures15%Early mover among oil majors diversifying into fusion.
LMTLockheed MartinProprietary compact fusion project via Skunk Works10%High-risk, high-reward. Long R&D cycle.
BWXTBWX TechnologiesSupplier to DOE & nuclear fusion systems10%Strong play on infrastructure and manufacturing know-how.
HONHoneywellSystems integration, sensors, materials10%Likely supplier for industrialized fusion plants.
Cash or Bonds-For future IPOs or market volatility5%Hold for IPOs (TAE, Helion, General Fusion, Zap Energy).

🚀 PART 2: Speculative Fusion IPO Watchlist (2025–2027)

These private companies are furthest along in fusion and could IPO in the coming years:

CompanyApproachWhy It MattersIPO Outlook
Helion EnergyMagneto-inertial pulsed fusionFirst to have utility contract (Microsoft); aims for net energy by 2025High potential by 2026
TAE TechnologiesField-reversed configurationLargest private funding, strong industrial partners (Google, Chevron, Japan’s Sumitomo)IPO likely 2025–2026
Zap EnergySheared-flow stabilized Z-pinchUltra-simple architecture, compact reactor designLater-stage, maybe 2026+
General FusionMagnetized target fusionBacked by Bezos, demo plant in UK underwayMay IPO via Canadian or UK route by 2026
First Light FusionInertial projectile (UK)Unique projectile fusion approachMay go public in London by 2025

🔮 Optional "Aggressive Edge" Plays

speculative bets:

  • Consider small positions in Nvidia (NVDA) for AI-modeling fusion physics and software.

  • Watch for Canadian defense or nuclear companies potentially supporting General Fusion (e.g., SNC-Lavalin / AtkinsRéalis).


📌 Final Thoughts

  • Short-term: Play the enablers (MSFT, GOOG, BWXT).

  • Mid-term: Watch for IPOs and allocate cash accordingly.

  • Long-term: If even one private fusion developer delivers commercial net-positive energy, valuations for all related names will re-rate.

No comments:

Post a Comment