"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"

Monday, October 27, 2025

Here’s a concise, investor-ready readout on Honeywell (HON), with the Solstice spin-off front and center and context on Quantinuum.

 CHARLOTTE, N.C., Oct. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) today introduced a breakthrough technology that converts agricultural and forestry waste into ready-to-use renewable fuels for hard-to-abate sectors, such as the maritime industry. The technology produces lower-carbon marine fuel, gasoline and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from inexpensive and abundant biomass sources like wood chips and crop residues.


Honeywell: Investment/Business Brief (as of Oct 27, 2025)

Setup & Thesis

Honeywell is in the middle of a multi-step breakup designed to unlock value: (1) spin off Solstice Advanced Materials on Oct 30, 2025; (2) separate Aerospace and Automation into two independent companies in 2H26. The company just posted a strong Q3 and raised FY2025 EPS guidance to $10.60–$10.70 even after carving out Solstice’s Nov–Dec contribution. Honeywell+1

Near-term catalyst: Solstice spin-off (ticker: SOLS)

  • Record date: Oct 17, 2025.

  • Distribution: expected 12:01 a.m. ET, Oct 30, 2025.

  • Ratio: 1 Solstice share for every 4 Honeywell shares.

  • Listing: Nasdaq, ticker SOLS, from Oct 30, 2025.

  • Status: Board approval finalized Oct 16, 2025; Solstice completed a $1B senior notes offering in preparation. Honeywell International Inc.+3Honeywell+3Honeywell+3

Why it matters: Honeywell is lifting guidance even after removing the late-year Solstice piece, signaling underlying strength (Aerospace/Automation). Street coverage highlights the spin as part of a broader value-unlock program. Barron's+1

“Eventual” Quantinuum separation

Honeywell remains majority owner of Quantinuum (formed 2021 from HQS + Cambridge Quantum). Management and reporting indicate an IPO/window targeted for late-2026 to 2027, market-conditions permitting. Quantinuum raised $300M at a $5B pre-money in 2024 and ~$600M in 2025, lifting the private valuation to ~$10B. Treat as a medium-term (not next-12-months) optionality lever for HON holders. Barron's+3Honeywell+3quantinuum.com+3

Financials snapshot (Q3’25; FY’25 guide)

  • Q3 sales: $10.4B (+7% y/y); Adj. EPS $2.82; orders +22%; backlog at a high.

  • FY’25 guide (ex-post-spin Solstice months): sales $40.7–$40.9B; Adj. EPS $10.60–$10.70; FCF $5.2–$5.6B. Honeywell+2Honeywell International Inc.+2

Segment color (Q3): Aerospace up ~15% (commercial aftermarket strength); Industrial Automation softer; Building Automation modest growth. Reuters

Valuation

At ~$215, HON trades at ~20.2× FY’25 adj. EPS midpoint (~$10.65). Market cap is ~$136–$137B; FCF yield ~4% on the mid-guide. (P/E and yield computed from company guide and current price/market cap.) Honeywell International Inc.+1

Balance sheet / share count context

Q3 filings show ~635M basic shares outstanding; cash ~$12.9B at Sep 30. Weighted average diluted shares ~639M in Q3. Stock Titan+1

New business, contracts & partnerships (illustrative 2025 items)

  • DoD quantum-sensing navigation awards under the TQS program (CRUISE & QUEST). aerospace.honeywell.com+1

  • LOT Polish Airlines selected Honeywell avionics for 13 Boeing 737 MAX (service from 2026). aerospace.honeywell.com

  • NXP partnership expanding AI/autonomy compute for Anthem avionics and future autonomous flight stacks. Reuters

  • Ongoing NASA collaborations (Space Act agreements/CLEEN-II testing) underscore aero/space credibility. NASA+1

Strategic portfolio moves

Honeywell is executing a three-company plan (Solstice now; Aerospace/Automation by 2H26), a path influenced by activist engagement. The company also continues selective M&A (e.g., UK catalyst tech unit from Johnson Matthey). Reuters+2Investopedia+2

Key watch items (next 3–6 months)

  • Oct 30, 2025: Solstice distribution/listing (SOLS). Track “when-issued”/regular-way trading dynamics and index implications. Honeywell

  • Post-spin guide updates: any revisions to Honeywell’s 2025–26 outlook ex-Solstice. Honeywell International Inc.

  • Quantinuum milestones: funding, roadmap (100 logical-qubit target by 2027) and any formal IPO steps. quantinuum.com+1

Risks

Aerospace cycle or aftermarket cooling; Automation growth/margin pressure; execution risk around multi-step separations; macro/FX; and timing/valuation risk around any Quantinuum transaction. Reuters


Bottom line

  • Near-term: Solstice spin is concrete and imminent; HON has demonstrated core earnings resilience even after adjusting for the carve-out. Honeywell+1

  • Medium-term: Two-way upside—operational focus from the 2026 Aerospace/Automation split and optionality from a potential Quantinuum listing in 2026–27. Reuters+1

Here’s a sum-of-the-parts table and valuation snapshot comparing Honeywell pre-spin, post-spin (core), and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), including basic metrics and rationale:


๐Ÿงฎ Sum-of-the-Parts View (as of October 27 2025)

Segment / CompanyFY 2025E Sales ($ B)FY 2025E Adj EBIT MarginFY 2025E EPS / EBIT ($ B)EV/EBIT × AssumptionImplied EV ($ B)Comments
Honeywell (core post-Solstice)38.0 – 39.022 %8.4 – 8.616×135 – 138Aerospace & Automation focus; strong backlog; mid-cycle margins
Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS)2.8 – 3.017 %0.5 – 0.5512×6 – 7Specialty materials, refrigerants, semiconductor cooling, sustainable chem
Quantinuum (Honeywell stake ~ 54 %)10× revenue (est. ~ $1 B valuation slice)10 – 12Private; ~$10 B enterprise value per late-2025 round
Net cash & other adj.+3Pro forma net cash after spin-prep debt issues

→ Sum-of-Parts EV ≈ $154–160 B
At a current equity market cap of ~$137 B, the implied upside range is +12–17 % if the market re-rates Honeywell and Solstice in line with peers post-spin.


๐Ÿงญ “What You Get” per 100 Honeywell shares (post-distribution)

ComponentShare ratioImplied value*Notes
Honeywell (core)100 shares retained~$21,500Ongoing Aerospace + Automation focus
Solstice (SOLS)25 shares received (1 : 4 ratio)~$1,200 – 1,400Independent Nasdaq listing Oct 30
Total package value~$22,700 – $23,000Equivalent to ~ 10–13 % uplift if Solstice holds fair value range

*Assumes HON $215, SOLS initial $45–55.


๐Ÿงฉ How this Reshapes Honeywell

CategoryPre-SpinPost-Spin
Business Mix45 % Aerospace, 25 % Automation, 20 % Materials, 10 % Others~55 % Aerospace, 40 % Automation, 5 % Other
Revenue DiversificationBroader industrial footprintNarrower, higher-margin cyclicals
EPS MixIncludes volatile materials cycleMore stable defense/aerospace + automation
Capital AllocationMixedSharper focus; potential buybacks or Quantinuum growth funding

๐Ÿง  Key Takeaways

  • Solstice listing (Oct 30) is immediate, clean, and tax-free, unlocking ~$6–7 B in stand-alone equity value.

  • Honeywell core remains a diversified industrial tech play at ~20× FY 2025 EPS with above-peer margin resilience.

  • Quantinuum remains a powerful hidden call option—IPO talk for 2026-27 with valuations rising toward $10 B+.

  • Sum-of-parts math suggests current price undervalues the combined pieces by ~12–17 %.

  • Dividend: 2.0–2.2 % yield post-spin; expected continuity of Honeywell’s dividend track record.

  • Disclosure:  Obviously, we are long Honeywell (HON)  HON) main business segments and their recent contribution to revenue and profit, based on the latest available public disclosures:


    ๐Ÿš€ Main Segments & Approximate Sizes

    Honeywell reports four primary segments (prior to the full spin-off of its Advanced Materials unit). The segments and their approximate revenue/margin profiles are:

    SegmentDescriptionLatest Info
    Aerospace TechnologiesCommercial aftermarket & OEM avionics, business/general aviation, defense & spaceIn 2024, this segment generated approx. $15 billion in revenue (about 40 % of the company) per news commentary. Financial Times+2Reuters+2
    Automation (Industrial Automation / Building Automation / Productivity & Workflow Solutions)Factory/plant automation, warehouse & workflow, sensing & safety, building products/solutionsAccording to commentary, the “automation business” was ~$18 billion in annual revenue. Financial Times+1
    Advanced Materials (to be spun-off as Solstice)Specialty chemicals/materials, refrigerants, semiconductor cooling, protective fibers etc.2024 commentary suggested approx. $4 billion in revenue for this unit. Financial Times
    Energy & Sustainability Solutions (ESS) / Other segmentsIncludes UOP (refining catalysts & equipment), building solutions, energy systemsThe 4Q 2024 results show growth of ~1% organically in this segment. Honeywell International Inc.+1

    ๐Ÿ“Š More Detailed Figures & Trends


    ✅ What this means

    • The Aerospace segment is clearly the largest individual unit, with ~40% of total revenue.

    • Automation is broadly defined but also a major contributor (~35-45% range depending on how sub-segments are aggregated).

    • The Advanced Materials (Solstice) segment (to be spun off) is smaller in scale yet strategically meaningful.

    • Margins and profit contribution vary significantly: Aerospace tends to command higher aftermarket/defense margins; Automation is more cyclical and exposed to industrial demand; Materials is more commodity and cycle-sensitive.


    ๐Ÿ“Š Q3 2025 Segment Results (three‐months ended Sept 30)

    From Honeywell’s 10-Q and earnings release: Stock Titan+2Honeywell+2

    SegmentNet Sales (USD M)Growth y/yNotes
    Aerospace Technologies4,511+12% organic Honeywell International Inc.+1Strong aftermarket & defense.
    Industrial Automation2,274Flat to +1% organic Honeywell+1Some softness.
    Building Automation1,878Up (from ~1,745M prior) Stock TitanModerate growth.
    Energy & Sustainability Solutions (ESS)1,742Up from ~1,563M prior year Stock TitanSmaller mix.
    Total Net Sales10,408+7% (reported) Honeywell International Inc.+1

    Margin / Profitability indicators

    • Aerospace segment margin in Q3: ~26.1% (down 1.6 pts year over year) Honeywell

    • Industrial Automation margin: ~18.8% (down ~1.5 pts y/y) Honeywell

    • Full-year (guide) overall segment margin expected ~22.9%–23.0% (up ~0.3-0.4 pts) Honeywell

    • Operating cash flow for first nine months: $5,204 M vs $3,816 M prior year. Stock Titan

    • Cash & equivalents at Sep 30: $12,930 M. Stock Titan


    ✅ Key Takeaways

    • The Aerospace segment is currently the strongest performer in growth and margin.

    • Industrial Automation, though large, is under pressure: very weak growth + margin decline. That is a risk area.

    • Building Automation & ESS are middling but play supportive roles in Honeywell’s portfolio.

    • The high cash flow and strong balance sheet (over $12.9 B cash) give Honeywell flexibility for portfolio actions (spin-offs, M&A, dividends).

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