"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label Government contracts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Government contracts. Show all posts

Monday, October 27, 2025

Here’s a concise, investor-ready readout on Honeywell (HON), with the Solstice spin-off front and center and context on Quantinuum.

 CHARLOTTE, N.C., Oct. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) today introduced a breakthrough technology that converts agricultural and forestry waste into ready-to-use renewable fuels for hard-to-abate sectors, such as the maritime industry. The technology produces lower-carbon marine fuel, gasoline and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from inexpensive and abundant biomass sources like wood chips and crop residues.


Honeywell: Investment/Business Brief (as of Oct 27, 2025)

Setup & Thesis

Honeywell is in the middle of a multi-step breakup designed to unlock value: (1) spin off Solstice Advanced Materials on Oct 30, 2025; (2) separate Aerospace and Automation into two independent companies in 2H26. The company just posted a strong Q3 and raised FY2025 EPS guidance to $10.60–$10.70 even after carving out Solstice’s Nov–Dec contribution. Honeywell+1

Near-term catalyst: Solstice spin-off (ticker: SOLS)

  • Record date: Oct 17, 2025.

  • Distribution: expected 12:01 a.m. ET, Oct 30, 2025.

  • Ratio: 1 Solstice share for every 4 Honeywell shares.

  • Listing: Nasdaq, ticker SOLS, from Oct 30, 2025.

  • Status: Board approval finalized Oct 16, 2025; Solstice completed a $1B senior notes offering in preparation. Honeywell International Inc.+3Honeywell+3Honeywell+3

Why it matters: Honeywell is lifting guidance even after removing the late-year Solstice piece, signaling underlying strength (Aerospace/Automation). Street coverage highlights the spin as part of a broader value-unlock program. Barron's+1

“Eventual” Quantinuum separation

Honeywell remains majority owner of Quantinuum (formed 2021 from HQS + Cambridge Quantum). Management and reporting indicate an IPO/window targeted for late-2026 to 2027, market-conditions permitting. Quantinuum raised $300M at a $5B pre-money in 2024 and ~$600M in 2025, lifting the private valuation to ~$10B. Treat as a medium-term (not next-12-months) optionality lever for HON holders. Barron's+3Honeywell+3quantinuum.com+3

Financials snapshot (Q3’25; FY’25 guide)

  • Q3 sales: $10.4B (+7% y/y); Adj. EPS $2.82; orders +22%; backlog at a high.

  • FY’25 guide (ex-post-spin Solstice months): sales $40.7–$40.9B; Adj. EPS $10.60–$10.70; FCF $5.2–$5.6B. Honeywell+2Honeywell International Inc.+2

Segment color (Q3): Aerospace up ~15% (commercial aftermarket strength); Industrial Automation softer; Building Automation modest growth. Reuters

Valuation

At ~$215, HON trades at ~20.2× FY’25 adj. EPS midpoint (~$10.65). Market cap is ~$136–$137B; FCF yield ~4% on the mid-guide. (P/E and yield computed from company guide and current price/market cap.) Honeywell International Inc.+1

Balance sheet / share count context

Q3 filings show ~635M basic shares outstanding; cash ~$12.9B at Sep 30. Weighted average diluted shares ~639M in Q3. Stock Titan+1

New business, contracts & partnerships (illustrative 2025 items)

  • DoD quantum-sensing navigation awards under the TQS program (CRUISE & QUEST). aerospace.honeywell.com+1

  • LOT Polish Airlines selected Honeywell avionics for 13 Boeing 737 MAX (service from 2026). aerospace.honeywell.com

  • NXP partnership expanding AI/autonomy compute for Anthem avionics and future autonomous flight stacks. Reuters

  • Ongoing NASA collaborations (Space Act agreements/CLEEN-II testing) underscore aero/space credibility. NASA+1

Strategic portfolio moves

Honeywell is executing a three-company plan (Solstice now; Aerospace/Automation by 2H26), a path influenced by activist engagement. The company also continues selective M&A (e.g., UK catalyst tech unit from Johnson Matthey). Reuters+2Investopedia+2

Key watch items (next 3–6 months)

  • Oct 30, 2025: Solstice distribution/listing (SOLS). Track “when-issued”/regular-way trading dynamics and index implications. Honeywell

  • Post-spin guide updates: any revisions to Honeywell’s 2025–26 outlook ex-Solstice. Honeywell International Inc.

  • Quantinuum milestones: funding, roadmap (100 logical-qubit target by 2027) and any formal IPO steps. quantinuum.com+1

Risks

Aerospace cycle or aftermarket cooling; Automation growth/margin pressure; execution risk around multi-step separations; macro/FX; and timing/valuation risk around any Quantinuum transaction. Reuters


Bottom line

  • Near-term: Solstice spin is concrete and imminent; HON has demonstrated core earnings resilience even after adjusting for the carve-out. Honeywell+1

  • Medium-term: Two-way upside—operational focus from the 2026 Aerospace/Automation split and optionality from a potential Quantinuum listing in 2026–27. Reuters+1

Here’s a sum-of-the-parts table and valuation snapshot comparing Honeywell pre-spin, post-spin (core), and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), including basic metrics and rationale:


🧮 Sum-of-the-Parts View (as of October 27 2025)

Segment / CompanyFY 2025E Sales ($ B)FY 2025E Adj EBIT MarginFY 2025E EPS / EBIT ($ B)EV/EBIT × AssumptionImplied EV ($ B)Comments
Honeywell (core post-Solstice)38.0 – 39.022 %8.4 – 8.616×135 – 138Aerospace & Automation focus; strong backlog; mid-cycle margins
Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS)2.8 – 3.017 %0.5 – 0.5512×6 – 7Specialty materials, refrigerants, semiconductor cooling, sustainable chem
Quantinuum (Honeywell stake ~ 54 %)10× revenue (est. ~ $1 B valuation slice)10 – 12Private; ~$10 B enterprise value per late-2025 round
Net cash & other adj.+3Pro forma net cash after spin-prep debt issues

→ Sum-of-Parts EV ≈ $154–160 B
At a current equity market cap of ~$137 B, the implied upside range is +12–17 % if the market re-rates Honeywell and Solstice in line with peers post-spin.


🧭 “What You Get” per 100 Honeywell shares (post-distribution)

ComponentShare ratioImplied value*Notes
Honeywell (core)100 shares retained~$21,500Ongoing Aerospace + Automation focus
Solstice (SOLS)25 shares received (1 : 4 ratio)~$1,200 – 1,400Independent Nasdaq listing Oct 30
Total package value~$22,700 – $23,000Equivalent to ~ 10–13 % uplift if Solstice holds fair value range

*Assumes HON $215, SOLS initial $45–55.


🧩 How this Reshapes Honeywell

CategoryPre-SpinPost-Spin
Business Mix45 % Aerospace, 25 % Automation, 20 % Materials, 10 % Others~55 % Aerospace, 40 % Automation, 5 % Other
Revenue DiversificationBroader industrial footprintNarrower, higher-margin cyclicals
EPS MixIncludes volatile materials cycleMore stable defense/aerospace + automation
Capital AllocationMixedSharper focus; potential buybacks or Quantinuum growth funding

🧠 Key Takeaways

  • Solstice listing (Oct 30) is immediate, clean, and tax-free, unlocking ~$6–7 B in stand-alone equity value.

  • Honeywell core remains a diversified industrial tech play at ~20× FY 2025 EPS with above-peer margin resilience.

  • Quantinuum remains a powerful hidden call option—IPO talk for 2026-27 with valuations rising toward $10 B+.

  • Sum-of-parts math suggests current price undervalues the combined pieces by ~12–17 %.

  • Dividend: 2.0–2.2 % yield post-spin; expected continuity of Honeywell’s dividend track record.

  • Disclosure:  Obviously, we are long Honeywell (HON)  HON) main business segments and their recent contribution to revenue and profit, based on the latest available public disclosures:


    🚀 Main Segments & Approximate Sizes

    Honeywell reports four primary segments (prior to the full spin-off of its Advanced Materials unit). The segments and their approximate revenue/margin profiles are:

    SegmentDescriptionLatest Info
    Aerospace TechnologiesCommercial aftermarket & OEM avionics, business/general aviation, defense & spaceIn 2024, this segment generated approx. $15 billion in revenue (about 40 % of the company) per news commentary. Financial Times+2Reuters+2
    Automation (Industrial Automation / Building Automation / Productivity & Workflow Solutions)Factory/plant automation, warehouse & workflow, sensing & safety, building products/solutionsAccording to commentary, the “automation business” was ~$18 billion in annual revenue. Financial Times+1
    Advanced Materials (to be spun-off as Solstice)Specialty chemicals/materials, refrigerants, semiconductor cooling, protective fibers etc.2024 commentary suggested approx. $4 billion in revenue for this unit. Financial Times
    Energy & Sustainability Solutions (ESS) / Other segmentsIncludes UOP (refining catalysts & equipment), building solutions, energy systemsThe 4Q 2024 results show growth of ~1% organically in this segment. Honeywell International Inc.+1

    📊 More Detailed Figures & Trends


    ✅ What this means

    • The Aerospace segment is clearly the largest individual unit, with ~40% of total revenue.

    • Automation is broadly defined but also a major contributor (~35-45% range depending on how sub-segments are aggregated).

    • The Advanced Materials (Solstice) segment (to be spun off) is smaller in scale yet strategically meaningful.

    • Margins and profit contribution vary significantly: Aerospace tends to command higher aftermarket/defense margins; Automation is more cyclical and exposed to industrial demand; Materials is more commodity and cycle-sensitive.


    📊 Q3 2025 Segment Results (three‐months ended Sept 30)

    From Honeywell’s 10-Q and earnings release: Stock Titan+2Honeywell+2

    SegmentNet Sales (USD M)Growth y/yNotes
    Aerospace Technologies4,511+12% organic Honeywell International Inc.+1Strong aftermarket & defense.
    Industrial Automation2,274Flat to +1% organic Honeywell+1Some softness.
    Building Automation1,878Up (from ~1,745M prior) Stock TitanModerate growth.
    Energy & Sustainability Solutions (ESS)1,742Up from ~1,563M prior year Stock TitanSmaller mix.
    Total Net Sales10,408+7% (reported) Honeywell International Inc.+1

    Margin / Profitability indicators

    • Aerospace segment margin in Q3: ~26.1% (down 1.6 pts year over year) Honeywell

    • Industrial Automation margin: ~18.8% (down ~1.5 pts y/y) Honeywell

    • Full-year (guide) overall segment margin expected ~22.9%–23.0% (up ~0.3-0.4 pts) Honeywell

    • Operating cash flow for first nine months: $5,204 M vs $3,816 M prior year. Stock Titan

    • Cash & equivalents at Sep 30: $12,930 M. Stock Titan


    ✅ Key Takeaways

    • The Aerospace segment is currently the strongest performer in growth and margin.

    • Industrial Automation, though large, is under pressure: very weak growth + margin decline. That is a risk area.

    • Building Automation & ESS are middling but play supportive roles in Honeywell’s portfolio.

    • The high cash flow and strong balance sheet (over $12.9 B cash) give Honeywell flexibility for portfolio actions (spin-offs, M&A, dividends).

Monday, February 24, 2025

ATI Inc., is a growing supplier of specialty metals and additives to the Defense and Areospace Sectors!

 


As of February 24, 2025, ATI Inc. (NYSE: ATI) stands as a prominent producer of high-performance materials and solutions, primarily serving the aerospace, defense, electronics, medical, and specialty energy markets.

Financial Overview:

  • Fourth Quarter 2024: ATI reported sales of $1.17 billion, marking a 10% increase year-over-year. Net income attributable to ATI was $137.1 million, or $0.94 per share.

  • Full Year 2024: The company achieved sales of $4.4 billion, the highest since 2012, representing a 5% increase from 2023. Operating cash flow for 2024 was $407 million, a significant rise from $86 million in 2023. Free cash flow increased by 50% to $248 million.

  • Cash Position: ATI maintained a strong cash position with $721 million at year-end 2024.

Technological Advancements:

In 2024, ATI commissioned a state-of-the-art Additive Manufacturing Products facility in Margate, Florida. This 132,000-square-foot facility enhances ATI's metal additive manufacturing capabilities, featuring large-format printing capable of producing parts up to 1.5 meters tall with complex geometries. The facility integrates design, printing, heat treating, machining, and inspection processes under one roof, streamlining production for aerospace, defense, and space markets.

Clients and Partnerships:

ATI has secured significant contracts, including a notable agreement with Bechtel Plant Machinery Inc. (BPMI) for the U.S. Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program. This partnership underscores ATI's commitment to delivering high-quality, specialized materials for critical defense applications.

Stock Performance:

As of February 24, 2025, ATI's stock is trading at $57.15 per share. The company has demonstrated a robust financial trajectory, with a 10% year-over-year increase in fourth-quarter sales and a 5% rise in annual sales for 2024. ATI's strategic focus on the aerospace and defense sectors, combined with its technological advancements and strong financial management, positions it favorably for sustained growth in the high-performance materials market.

ATI Inc (ATI)
$57.15
+$41.66(+268.95%)Past 5 years


ATI Inc. (NYSE: ATI) continues to focus on its primary sectors, notably aerospace and defense, where it has made significant investments to enhance its titanium production capabilities.

Key Investments in Titanium Production:

  • Richland, Washington Expansion: In July 2023, ATI announced an expansion of its titanium melting operations in Richland, Washington. This initiative aims to increase the company's production of aerospace and defense-grade titanium by approximately 35% over 2022 levels, addressing the growing demand in these sectors.

  • Bakers, North Carolina Forging Press: By March 2024, ATI commissioned a state-of-the-art 12,500-ton billet forging press in Bakers, North Carolina. This facility is critical for producing high-performance titanium components, particularly for aerospace applications.

ATI Inc. (NYSE: ATI) maintains a diverse portfolio of contracts with both the U.S. government and various commercial entities, reflecting its extensive capabilities in specialty materials and services.

U.S. Government Contracts:

  • Department of Defense (DoD): ATI Defense collaborates closely with U.S. defense departments and contractors, supplying specialty materials and armor products essential for applications such as airframes, jet engines, hypersonics, land vehicles, naval systems, and weaponry.

  • Department of State (DoS): Since 2014, ATI has been under a six-year Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract to provide preventive maintenance, upgrades, and repair services for Building Automation Systems (BAS) at U.S. embassies and consulates worldwide.

  • Department of the Treasury: In December 2024, ATI Government Solutions LLC secured a contract valued at approximately $19.84 million to provide engineering support for the Internal Revenue Service's (IRS) Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) Direct File program.

  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA): ATI Specialty Alloys & Components, LLC, a subsidiary of ATI, has been awarded contracts by NASA, including one in 2021, underscoring ATI's role in supplying specialized materials for aerospace applications.

Commercial Contracts:

  • Aerospace and Defense Sector: In June 2023, ATI announced securing approximately $1.2 billion in new sales commitments from leading aerospace and defense companies. These agreements, spanning from 2024 to 2029, involve the supply of nickel and titanium materials critical for commercial engine and airframe manufacturing, as well as ground-vehicle armor.

These contracts and partnerships highlight ATI's strategic engagements across various sectors, emphasizing its commitment to delivering high-performance materials and services to both governmental and commercial clients.

Thursday, December 26, 2024

As we enter 2025, we compare C3 Ai and Palantir in the fast growing market of Ai Software! (CAGR of 35% through 2030)


 Investment Report on C3.ai and Comparison with Palantir

Introduction C3.ai and Palantir are two key players in the burgeoning AI software market, which is witnessing exponential growth due to increased adoption of AI solutions across industries. This report evaluates C3.ai's current business and future prospects, its customers, partnerships, financials, and growth trajectory. Additionally, it includes a comparative analysis of C3.ai and Palantir on valuation, growth metrics, and positioning in the AI market.

Business Overview

  • C3.ai: C3.ai offers enterprise AI solutions tailored to sectors such as energy, manufacturing, utilities, financial services, and defense. It provides a comprehensive suite of applications that enable predictive analytics, optimization, and operational efficiency. C3.ai recently transitioned to a consumption-based pricing model, aligning costs with customer usage, which has driven market adoption and improved revenue growth.

  • Palantir: Palantir specializes in data integration, big data analytics, and AI-driven insights, primarily serving government agencies and large enterprises. Its flagship platforms, Palantir Gotham and Foundry, are widely recognized for their applications in national security, supply chain optimization, and predictive maintenance.

Financial Performance (2024)

  • C3.ai:

    • Fiscal year revenue grew by 16% to $310.6 million.

    • Q4 FY2024 revenue increased by 20% year-over-year, reaching $86.6 million.

    • Strong federal segment growth, with revenue doubling year-over-year.

  • Palantir:

    • Achieved profitability with net income of $302 million in 2024.

    • Revenue grew by 24% year-over-year to $2.2 billion.

    • Significant expansion in commercial revenue and sustained growth in government contracts.

Key Customers and Partnerships




  • C3.ai Customers:

    • Energy: Shell, ExxonMobil, Baker Hughes.

    • Utilities: Con Edison.

    • Government: U.S. Air Force, U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps, and the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency.

  • Palantir Customers:


    • Government: U.S. Department of Defense, NHS (UK).

    • Commercial: BP, Airbus, Ferrari.

  • Strategic Partnerships:

    • C3.ai has a strategic alliance with Microsoft, leveraging Azure to scale AI applications. This partnership could expand its sales reach significantly.

    • Palantir’s partnerships with IBM and AWS bolster its AI and cloud capabilities, enhancing its data integration offerings.

Market Valuation and Metrics

  • C3.ai:

    • Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: 9.4x. 

    • Becoming profitable, focused on scaling and investing in growth.

  • Palantir:

    • Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 80x, reflecting premium valuation due to profitability and market leadership.

    • Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: 13.2x.

AI Software Market Expansion 2024-2030



The AI software market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 35% through 2030, driven by:

  • Increased AI adoption across industries such as healthcare, defense, and finance.

  • Rising demand for generative AI and machine learning platforms.

  • Growing investments in AI infrastructure and R&D.

Comparison: Growth Prospects

  • C3.ai:

    • Positioned to benefit from its diverse customer base and generative AI solutions.

    • Adoption of the consumption-based model aligns with market demand for flexibility.

  • Palantir:

    • Well-established in government and defense, expanding into commercial sectors.

    • Focus on AI/ML advancements and leveraging its proprietary platforms for scalable solutions.

Forrester Research predicts Ai Software spending in 2025 of $64 Billion

Conclusion 

While C3.ai is growing its presence in the AI market through innovation and partnerships, it remains unprofitable, which could impact investor sentiment in the short term, however, it's forward earnings valuation under 10% indicates it may be a buying opportunity.

Palantir, with its profitability and established customer base, commands a higher valuation but also faces challenges in maintaining its growth rate and valuation now looks extended.

As the AI software market expands, both companies are poised to capture significant opportunities, though their trajectories differ based on strategic focus and market dynamics.

ED Note:

Currently we have no position in either Palantir and C3Ai, however, they are on our watch list!

update: Jan 6 2024

We purchased some shares in Ai