Quantum Technology Investment Report (2025, updated)
Cheat Sheet by Platform
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Superconducting devices (IBM, Google, Rigetti)
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Maturity: Most advanced gate-based stack; late-decade FTQC roadmaps.
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Pros: Rich software ecosystem, strong enterprise/government demand.
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Cons: Cryogenic complexity, wiring bottlenecks at large scale.
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Trapped ions (IonQ, Quantinuum)
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Maturity: Best qubit fidelities; logical-qubit demonstrations live on commercial hardware.
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Pros: High gate quality, long coherence.
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Cons: Slower gates, engineering challenges for very large systems.
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Neutral atoms (Infleqtion, Pasqal, QuEra, Atom Computing)
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Maturity: Fastest scaling potential (large, reconfigurable arrays).
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New catalyst: Infleqtion going public via CCCX ($1.8B valuation; $540M gross proceeds including $125M PIPE).
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Pros: Large qubit arrays, parallelism, dual business in sensing (clocks, RF, inertial).
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Cons: Fidelity still catching up to ions/superconductors.
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Photons (PsiQuantum, Xanadu)
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Maturity: Highly funded; fab-compatible.
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Pros: Room-temperature, natural networking.
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Cons: Photon source brightness, error correction hurdles.
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Particle spin (silicon spins, NV centers)
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Maturity: CMOS compatibility (Intel, GlobalFoundries); NV centers strong in sensing.
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Pros: Semiconductor supply chain leverage.
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Cons: Fabrication variability, noise.
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Quasiparticles (Majoranas, excitons, magnons)
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Maturity: Early-stage research; Microsoft leading Majorana work.
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Pros: Potential intrinsic error protection.
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Cons: Experimental, uncertain reproducibility.
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Updated our “Top 6” Quantum Stock Picks
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IonQ (IONQ) — Ion-trap pure play with scale roadmap, big-tech/US government contracts.
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Churchill Capital Corp X (CCCX → INFQ at close) — Neutral-atom + sensing pure play; SPAC risk, but strong PIPE.
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Rigetti (RGTI) — Superconducting; turnaround in progress, defense contracts add upside.
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IBM (IBM) — Superconducting leader, steady enterprise adoption.
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GlobalFoundries (GFS) — Picks-and-shovels enabler for silicon spin qubits & photonics.
GOOG - Super conducting leader - gate based stack
Two-Bucket Model (2025)
Bucket 1: Pure-Play Upside (high beta, tech leaders)
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IonQ (IONQ): ~3–4% allocation
Catalyst: Next logical-qubit demo, enterprise adoption updates. -
CCCX → INFQ (Infleqtion): ~2–3% allocation
Catalyst: PIPE close, SEC S-4 effectiveness, shareholder vote, SPAC redemptions, first Tiqker atomic clock shipments. -
Rigetti (RGTI): ~2% allocation
Catalyst: New government contracts, roadmap to multi-chip modules, progress on gate fidelity.
Total pure-play allocation: ~7–9% of portfolio.
Bucket 2: Diversified Enablers (lower beta, long-horizon exposure)
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IBM (IBM): ~2–3% allocation
Catalyst: Scaling roadmap updates (1000+ qubit milestones), enterprise partnerships. -
GlobalFoundries (GFS): ~2% allocation
Catalyst: Foundry deals for spin qubits, photonics, quantum networking chips. -
Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC): optional ~1–2% each for broad AI/quantum ecosystem exposure.
Total diversified allocation: ~6–9% of portfolio.
Key Catalysts to Track
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PIPE close & S-4 effectiveness (CCCX/INFQ) → first confirmation of SPAC funding strength.
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Shareholder vote & redemption window → determines actual cash on Infleqtion’s balance sheet.
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First Tiqker customer shipments → validates earlier revenue via sensing products.
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Next logical-qubit demo (IonQ, Quantinuum, IBM) → milestone toward error-corrected workloads.
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Government contracts/defense programs (Rigetti, Infleqtion, IBM) → recurring revenue signals.
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Pure-play upside (IONQ, INFQ, RGTI) offers high growth but high volatility; size positions cautiously.
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Diversified enablers (IBM, GFS, large-cap tech) provide stability, supply-chain leverage, and broader AI/quantum synergies.
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Watch catalysts closely: successful Infleqtion de-SPAC, logical-qubit demos, and early product shipments could trigger reratings across the sector.
