"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label robotics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label robotics. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

We bought Hyundai Motors today (HYMTF) and here's why we like it!

 


Hyundai Motor Company (KRX:005380 / OTC: HYMTF) is increasingly attractive as an investment, especially if you're seeking exposure to the convergence of robotics, electric vehicles (EVs), and autonomous driving. Here's a breakdown of why Hyundai may be a solid investment right now, based on current dynamics:


Bull Case for Hyundai – July 2025

1. Boston Dynamics Integration = Unique Robotics Edge

  • Hyundai is one of the only global automakers with full control over a top-tier robotics firm.


  • Use of Spot, Stretch, and soon Atlas robots in factories, logistics, and inspection gives Hyundai a first-mover advantage in smart manufacturing.


  • This enhances productivity, reduces downtime, and may accelerate AV system testing (e.g. physical AI, real-time perception).

“Tens of thousands” of robots will be deployed across Hyundai and Kia plants — that's not R&D; that’s operational transformation.


2. Strong EV Momentum

  • Hyundai’s Ioniq lineup is highly rated (Ioniq 5 and 6), competing well with Tesla on quality, design, and price.


  • Major EV production plants in Georgia (U.S.) are ramping up, giving Hyundai a serious foothold in North America.

  • Hyundai’s battery partnerships (SK On, LG Energy) strengthen its supply chain.


3. AV Partnerships & Strategy

  • Motional (joint venture with Aptiv) is testing Level 4 robotaxis in the U.S. using Hyundai EV platforms.

  • Integration of sensor fusion, real-time mapping, and AI navigation systems is being tested now — a strong sign of future readiness in the AV space.


4. Undervalued Compared to U.S. Peers

  • Hyundai trades at much lower valuation multiples than Tesla, GM, or even Ford:

    • P/E ratio often under 8–9x

    • Price-to-book well under 1.0

  • Despite growing global EV sales, its valuation doesn’t yet reflect the robotics + AI upside that Tesla is often credited with.

  • June total sales of hybrid vehicles jumped 3%, resulting in the best June ever for hybrid and total electrified vehicle sales.

    Q2 and First Half Highlights

    Hyundai sold 235,726 units in Q2, for a total sales increase of 10% compared with Q2 2024. Hyundai set total and retail sales records in Q2 for Elantra N, Santa Fe HEV, Tucson PHEV, Tucson HEV and Palisade. Hybrid vehicle sales for the quarter rose 16%.

    Hyundai sold 439,280 total units in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase compared to the first half of 2024 and the best ever first half sales results. First half retail sales rose 5%. Total electrified vehicle sales saw an increase of 20% year-over-year.


5. Dividends & Global Growth

  • Hyundai pays a solid dividend (~2.5%–3% yield, depending on share class and FX).

  • It's expanding aggressively in India, Southeast Asia, and North America, growing both ICE and EV market share.


❌ Risks to Consider

RiskDetails
Geopolitical exposureKorea-based; vulnerable to tensions with North Korea, China, U.S. tariffs
Competitive landscapeFaces Tesla, BYD, VW, and new AV entrants like Apple or Xiaomi
AV timeline uncertaintyNo firm timeline for fully commercial AV products
BD not yet monetizedBoston Dynamics is still a cost center, not a profit engine—yet

📈 Investment Summary

FactorGrade
Robotics edge via BD★★★★☆
AV development (Motional)★★★★☆
EV lineup & sales★★★★☆
Valuation★★★★★
Market momentum★★★☆☆

🧭 My Take:

Hyundai is underappreciated by Western investors despite being:

  • A global top 5 EV manufacturer,

  • An early adopter of humanoid and autonomous robotics, and

  • Positioned for long-term gains in AV, factory automation, and battery EV sectors.

If you're building a robotics + EV portfolio, Hyundai is a compelling stock to pair with ETFs like BOTZ, ARKQ, and DRIV.

Full disclosure:

We bought Hyundai today and own BOTZ

ARKQ and DRIV are on our watch list!

Friday, June 20, 2025

Robots, Robotics and Automation - Investing in the "picks and shovels"!

 


If I had to pick only one "pick and shovel" stock to invest in for the robotics (especially humanoid/industrial robot) boom—including plays like Tesla's Optimus—my choice is:


🏆 Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK)

🔧 Why Rockwell?

1. Pure-play industrial automation leader

  • Rockwell is deeply embedded in manufacturing, robotics integration, motion control, industrial sensors, and factory digitization.

  • Its FactoryTalk, ControlLogix, and Allen-Bradley product lines are widely used in industrial robotics—from automotive to food production.

2. Strategic partnerships with AI & cloud giants

  • Rockwell has deep integrations with Microsoft Azure, NVIDIA Omniverse, and PTC (IoT CAD software)—vital for robotic design, simulation, and operation.

3. Robotics-native clients

  • Customers include Tesla, Boeing, Procter & Gamble, and automation integrators. Optimus-style humanoid robots will require factory retooling—which Rockwell enables.

4. Strong financials

  • High margins (~25% EBITDA), consistent free cash flow, and a track record of innovation make it a rare combo of growth, quality, and income (1.6% dividend yield).

  • Rockwell is profitable, with global exposure and minimal debt pressure.

5. Long-term megatrends tailwind

  • Growth in "lights-out factories", robotic arms, machine vision, and motion automation all converge at Rockwell.

  • As companies transition from legacy automation to AI-enhanced robotic systems, Rockwell provides the tools, software, and integration layers.


✳️ Quick Stats (as of June 2025)

MetricValue
Market Cap~$32B
Dividend Yield~1.6%
P/E Ratio~28x
YoY Revenue Growth~6%
Robotics/Automation %>75% of revenue

🆚 Why Not Others?

  • Ametek (AME) and RBC Bearings (RBC) are great precision motion plays—but more passive in robotic development.

  • NVIDIA is critical—but not a pure "pick and shovel" for robotics. It's broader AI and data center focused.

  • ABB, Keyence, and Siemens are also excellent—but either not U.S.-based or less pure-play.

  • Ouster (LiDAR) and Regal Rexnord (motors) are too narrow.


✅ Final Word

If you're investing in the tools behind the robotics revolution, especially as it scales into humanoids like Tesla's Optimus, Rockwell Automation stands out as the most strategic, financially sound, and robotics-focused pick-and-shovel stock available today.

Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
$321.80
+$107.21(+49.96%)Past 5 years

Here’s a detailed breakdown of Rockwell Automation (ROK), covering earnings projections and technical valuation insights:


📈 5-Year Earnings & Growth Forecast

PeriodProjected EPS Growth
Next 1 yr (to 2026)From ~$7.97 today to ~$9.73 → ~22% increase
2026 Estimate~$11.31 EPS
2027 Estimate~$13.17 EPS
CAGR (2025–2028)EPS +14.2% / revenue +6.2% annually
Long-term (to 2029)Analysts forecast ~$14.11 EPS by FY 2029 
Analyst Consensus: About 6‑11 analysts expect EPS between $9–10 for FY 2025 and rising steadily through 2027 .

📊 Technical Analysis Snapshot

  • Moving Averages:

    • On the daily scale, price is above 200‑day MA (~$277), 50‑day (~$283), and 20‑day (~$317), indicating a bullish trend 

    • Short‑term MAs also bullish in most models .

  • Trend & Patterns:
    ChartMill gives a technical rating of 9/10, with both short- and long-term trends positive.
    A bull-flag pattern suggests a potential buy-on-breakout opportunity, with support around $318 and resistance near $325 

  • Indicators:

    • RSI is neutral-to-strong — around mid‑range.

    • MACD recent crossover turns positive, supporting bullish momentum in daily models .

    • Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) upgraded RS rating to 83 (top quintile) but noted a slight pullback from a failed base entry near $308, implying a new base formation may be prudent 


🔍 Long-Term Outlook & Valuation

  • Earnings Growth Driver: Rockwell provides industrial automation solutions, benefiting from onshoring and the broader digitization of manufacturing. Barron’s highlights projected ~17% annual EPS growth through 2027 

  • Tariff Tailwinds: Rockwell is cited as a key beneficiary of increased onshoring due to higher tariffs, making it a go-to industrial play in that trend .

  • Valuation Summary:

    • Trading near $322, with a one-year average price target of $326 (range $290–371) by Wall Street 

    • Reasonable P/E based on ~$9–10 EPS, giving ~30×–35× forward P/E—typical for a high-quality industrial automation company.


🧭 Bottom Line

  • Earnings Trajectory: Robust growth expected — ~14–22% EPS CAGR over next 2–5 years.

  • Technical Setup: Bullish trend with backup from multiple indicators and chart patterns, though a careful entry after base confirmation may yield better risk/reward.

  • Macro-Catalysts: Onshoring, increased automation, and high-margin solutions support earnings and valuation.


Your Next Moves

  • For long-term exposure: Buying on dips above $318–$320 with a multi-year view of automation trends—and holding for EPS growth and rising automation adoption.

  • For tactical entries: Monitor a breakout above $325 on expanding volume—this would confirm bullish momentum and enable tighter, disciplined entries.

Here’s a refined model for a 12-month target price on Rockwell Automation (ROK):


📊 1. Base Scenario: Conservative PE

  • EPS Estimate for FY2026: ~$11.49 

  • Modest Forward P/E: 26× (near its historical fair ratio of ~29×)

  • Target Price: 11.49 × 26 ≈ $299

This projection is slightly below current levels, suggesting limited upside if the market is cautious.


🔼 2. Growth Scenario: Elevated PE

  • Same EPS: $11.49

  • Premium P/E: 30× (reflecting continued automation enthusiasm)

  • Target Price: 11.49 × 30 ≈ $345

This targets the upper range of analyst forecasts and assumes multiple expansion 


🛠 3. Bull Case: Full Growth Re-Rating

  • EPS for FY2027: ~$13.19 

  • High-End P/E: 28× (middle ground between growth and valuation)

  • Target Price: 13.19 × 28 ≈ $370

This aligns with the top analyst estimate ($371) .


📌 Summary Table

ScenarioAssumed EPSP/E MultipleTarget Price
Base$11.4926×$299
Growth$11.4930×$345
Bull (2027)$13.1928×$370

🔍 Interpretation

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Here's an aggressive way to enter the Agentic Ai stock race if you're seeking high reward that carries high risk!

 


here's a high-conviction Agentic AI stock watchlist for an aggressive portfolio, including ideal buy ranges, key catalysts, and what to watch for each company. This is geared toward catching breakouts or deep-value setups before broader institutional moves.


🔧 AGENTIC AI CREATORS (BUILDERS)

1. C3.ai (Ticker: AI)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $22 – $28

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • New generative AI enterprise product launches (esp. AI agents for defense/oil & gas)

    • Major U.S. government contract renewals or expansions

  • Why it’s on the list: First-mover advantage in enterprise AI platforms; if execution improves, the upside is enormous.


2. Symbotic (Ticker: SYM)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $33 – $38

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • New mega-retailer partnerships (Amazon, Target, etc.)

    • Expansion into full-agentic warehouse orchestration

  • Why it’s on the list: Already profitable and scaling; its tech uses autonomous decision-making across supply chains.


3. Recursion Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: RXRX)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $5.50 – $7.50

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • New AI-discovered drug candidates entering clinical trials

    • Further expansion of NVIDIA partnership

  • Why it’s on the list: One of the few companies using AI agents to autonomously identify disease-drug interactions.


🚀 AGENTIC AI BENEFICIARIES (ADOPTERS)

4. Tempus AI (Ticker: TEM)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $30 – $36 (as a new IPO, use limit orders around pullbacks)

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • Major hospital system deals

    • Partnerships with genomic leaders (e.g. Illumina, Roche)

  • Why it’s on the list: Early innings of precision medicine + AI agents = potentially massive future upside.


5. Axon Enterprise (Ticker: AXON)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $275 – $295

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • Release of AI-powered real-time monitoring or predictive tools

    • Federal/DoD AI safety tech contracts

  • Why it’s on the list: Dominates public safety; building autonomous surveillance systems in-house.


6. Samsara (Ticker: IOT)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $30 – $34

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • Launch of AI co-pilots or agents for fleet automation

    • Expansion into non-logistics industries (e.g. construction, food supply)

  • Why it’s on the list: Already uses agentic loops for logistics and safety — sticky B2B model with scale potential.


📋 Summary: Watchlist Snapshot

TickerNameIdeal Buy RangeKey Catalyst
AIC3.ai$22–$28New enterprise AI agents/contracts
SYMSymbotic$33–$38Expansion into new retail/logistics
RXRXRecursion$5.50–$7.50Drug pipeline + Nvidia push
TEMTempus AI$30–$36Genomics/healthcare expansion
AXONAxon$275–$295AI-enabled law enforcement tools
IOTSamsara$30–$34AI co-pilot expansion to new verticals

Ed Note:

We own several of the stocks listed here with the rest on our watch list!

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

AEVA Technologies is evolving into a platform sensing company, not just an auto lidar supplier. The Eve 1 sensor launch opens an entirely new industrial market, significantly de-risking the business from the long automotive adoption cycles.



Investment and Business Report: AEVA Technologies Inc. (AEVA)

Date: April 29, 2025


📍 Executive Summary

AEVA Technologies is transitioning from being "just a lidar company" for autonomous vehicles to becoming a diversified precision sensing leader across automotive, industrial automation, robotics, and manufacturing sectors.
The launch of Eve 1, its sub-micron precision displacement sensor, expands AEVA’s total addressable market (TAM) by ~$4 billion, positioning the company strongly into high-value industrial markets with a unique technological edge.

AEVA's FMCW (Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave) lidar remains its core differentiation, and now the CoreVision chip will enable scalable production for both automotive and non-automotive applications, creating multiple revenue streams.


⚙️ Technology and Advancements

  • FMCW 4D Lidar: AEVA’s FMCW lidar technology measures both distance and instant velocity, a key differentiator from traditional time-of-flight lidars (like those from Luminar, Ouster, or Innoviz).


    • Advantages: Higher range, lower power consumption, direct velocity measurement, and immunity to interference and ambient light.

  • CoreVision™ Chip:

    • Custom silicon integrating FMCW lidar onto a compact, scalable platform.


    • Powers both automotive lidar and the new Eve 1 displacement sensor.

    • Provides edge processing directly on the chip (important for real-time industrial sensing).

  • Eve 1 Displacement Sensor:

    • Precision: Sub-micron accuracy (< 1/100th of a human hair).

    • Range: Up to 20 meters.

    • Works across different materials and lighting conditions.

    • Compact, all-in-one system.

    • Addresses high-growth markets: manufacturing automation, quality inspection, robotics, industrial metrology, semiconductor fabrication.


📊 Financial Overview (as of latest filings - Q1 2025)

MetricValue
Cash and Cash Equivalents~$180 million
DebtMinimal (~$5 million)
Quarterly Revenue~$3.5 million (expected to grow rapidly with Eve 1)
Quarterly Net Loss~$30 million
Cash Burn Rate~$25-30 million/quarter
Runway~6-7 quarters at current burn rate
Gross Margins~Negative (due to early-stage scaling, but expected to improve significantly with Eve 1 industrial margins)

Note: Automotive lidar programs are extremely long-cycle, but Eve 1 in manufacturing will allow faster revenue generation due to shorter industrial sales cycles.


📦 Customers and Partnerships

Automotive Sector:

  • Volkswagen Group: Selected AEVA's lidar for Level 4 autonomous driving programs via CARIAD (VW’s software division).

  • Porsche: AEVA's FMCW lidar is being tested for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS).

  • Additional Partnerships: Top 10 global OEMs are under evaluation/engagements (names undisclosed for competitive reasons).

Non-Automotive (Industrial/Robotics):
(New with Eve 1 announcement)

  • Manufacturing Automation: Potential major customers include semiconductor fabs (like TSMC, Intel), robotics companies, high-end manufacturing plants (BMW, Tesla, GE, etc.).

  • Industrial Quality Control: Enabling 3D metrology and defect inspection.


🏦 Institutional Investors

Top institutional investors currently holding AEVA shares:

  • Softbank (large early backer, strategic investor)

  • Lux Capital (deeptech/automation-focused VC fund)

  • Canaan Partners

  • Baillie Gifford (small stake)

  • BlackRock (via passive index funds)

  • Vanguard (via passive index funds)

Ownership by long-term investors focused on emerging technology is relatively strong despite the small market cap (~$250 million as of today).


🧠 Competitive Positioning

CompanyStrengthsWeaknesses
AEVAFMCW lidar, sub-micron Eve 1 sensor, scalable silicon, multi-market expansionEarly-stage revenue; execution risk
LuminarStrong auto partnerships (Volvo, Mercedes)Time-of-Flight tech weaker for industrial
InnovizBMW contract for lidarNo expansion yet into industrial
OusterBroad low-cost lidarLower precision; still restructuring
HesaiDominates China marketHigh U.S. regulatory risk

AEVA is unique because it combines:

  • Slimmest Long-Range High-Resolution Automotive-Grade 4D LiDAR

    For SAE L3/L4 Automated Driving in Production Programs (Available in 2026)

  • Short-range precision industrial sensing,


  • Proprietary silicon (CoreVision),

  • Scalable platform for cross-industry use.


🚀 Growth Potential Through 2030

YearKey Milestones
2025-2026Revenue inflection from Eve 1 in manufacturing sector
2026-2027First series production of FMCW lidar in premium vehicles
2027-2028Expansion into robotics and aerospace sectors
2028-2030AEVA becomes multi-sector sensing leader (auto + industrial)

Revenue projection (internal estimates + analyst models):

  • 2025: ~$10-15 million

  • 2026: ~$50-70 million

  • 2027: ~$150-200 million

  • 2030: Potentially $500 million+ if Eve 1 adoption scales and multiple vehicle programs launch with AEVA lidar.


📈 Bull Case vs Bear Case

ViewBull CaseBear Case
TechnologyFMCW becomes dominant in automotive and industrial marketsFMCW adoption slower than expected; traditional lidar still dominates
Revenue GrowthEve 1 wins major industrial clients; auto production rampsSlow industrial adoption; auto production delays
FinancialsMargins expand as CoreVision scales; profitability by 2027Prolonged cash burn leads to dilution
Stock Price Potential5x–10x from today’s level by 2029-2030Minimal gains; risk of M&A at depressed valuation

📚 Summary and Investment Thesis

AEVA Technologies is evolving into a platform sensing company, not just an auto lidar supplier.
The Eve 1 sensor launch opens an entirely new industrial market, significantly de-risking the business from the long automotive adoption cycles.

If AEVA:

  • Successfully scales Eve 1 industrial sales, and

  • Launches its first automotive lidar into production by ~2027,

then it could grow revenue >10x from today’s levels by 2030.

At today's ~$250M valuation, the risk-reward is very favorable, particularly considering the diversified industrial+automotive growth story and the proprietary CoreVision chip platform.


Conclusion: AEVA is a High-Risk, High-Reward Deeptech Play With Emerging Multi-Sector Tailwinds.


May 2025


Previous/related articles:

AEVA technologies has developed a number of partnerships with major auto makers and suppliers!