"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts

Monday, October 27, 2025

Here’s a concise, investor-ready readout on Honeywell (HON), with the Solstice spin-off front and center and context on Quantinuum.

 CHARLOTTE, N.C., Oct. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) today introduced a breakthrough technology that converts agricultural and forestry waste into ready-to-use renewable fuels for hard-to-abate sectors, such as the maritime industry. The technology produces lower-carbon marine fuel, gasoline and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from inexpensive and abundant biomass sources like wood chips and crop residues.


Honeywell: Investment/Business Brief (as of Oct 27, 2025)

Setup & Thesis

Honeywell is in the middle of a multi-step breakup designed to unlock value: (1) spin off Solstice Advanced Materials on Oct 30, 2025; (2) separate Aerospace and Automation into two independent companies in 2H26. The company just posted a strong Q3 and raised FY2025 EPS guidance to $10.60–$10.70 even after carving out Solstice’s Nov–Dec contribution. Honeywell+1

Near-term catalyst: Solstice spin-off (ticker: SOLS)

  • Record date: Oct 17, 2025.

  • Distribution: expected 12:01 a.m. ET, Oct 30, 2025.

  • Ratio: 1 Solstice share for every 4 Honeywell shares.

  • Listing: Nasdaq, ticker SOLS, from Oct 30, 2025.

  • Status: Board approval finalized Oct 16, 2025; Solstice completed a $1B senior notes offering in preparation. Honeywell International Inc.+3Honeywell+3Honeywell+3

Why it matters: Honeywell is lifting guidance even after removing the late-year Solstice piece, signaling underlying strength (Aerospace/Automation). Street coverage highlights the spin as part of a broader value-unlock program. Barron's+1

“Eventual” Quantinuum separation

Honeywell remains majority owner of Quantinuum (formed 2021 from HQS + Cambridge Quantum). Management and reporting indicate an IPO/window targeted for late-2026 to 2027, market-conditions permitting. Quantinuum raised $300M at a $5B pre-money in 2024 and ~$600M in 2025, lifting the private valuation to ~$10B. Treat as a medium-term (not next-12-months) optionality lever for HON holders. Barron's+3Honeywell+3quantinuum.com+3

Financials snapshot (Q3’25; FY’25 guide)

  • Q3 sales: $10.4B (+7% y/y); Adj. EPS $2.82; orders +22%; backlog at a high.

  • FY’25 guide (ex-post-spin Solstice months): sales $40.7–$40.9B; Adj. EPS $10.60–$10.70; FCF $5.2–$5.6B. Honeywell+2Honeywell International Inc.+2

Segment color (Q3): Aerospace up ~15% (commercial aftermarket strength); Industrial Automation softer; Building Automation modest growth. Reuters

Valuation

At ~$215, HON trades at ~20.2× FY’25 adj. EPS midpoint (~$10.65). Market cap is ~$136–$137B; FCF yield ~4% on the mid-guide. (P/E and yield computed from company guide and current price/market cap.) Honeywell International Inc.+1

Balance sheet / share count context

Q3 filings show ~635M basic shares outstanding; cash ~$12.9B at Sep 30. Weighted average diluted shares ~639M in Q3. Stock Titan+1

New business, contracts & partnerships (illustrative 2025 items)

  • DoD quantum-sensing navigation awards under the TQS program (CRUISE & QUEST). aerospace.honeywell.com+1

  • LOT Polish Airlines selected Honeywell avionics for 13 Boeing 737 MAX (service from 2026). aerospace.honeywell.com

  • NXP partnership expanding AI/autonomy compute for Anthem avionics and future autonomous flight stacks. Reuters

  • Ongoing NASA collaborations (Space Act agreements/CLEEN-II testing) underscore aero/space credibility. NASA+1

Strategic portfolio moves

Honeywell is executing a three-company plan (Solstice now; Aerospace/Automation by 2H26), a path influenced by activist engagement. The company also continues selective M&A (e.g., UK catalyst tech unit from Johnson Matthey). Reuters+2Investopedia+2

Key watch items (next 3–6 months)

  • Oct 30, 2025: Solstice distribution/listing (SOLS). Track “when-issued”/regular-way trading dynamics and index implications. Honeywell

  • Post-spin guide updates: any revisions to Honeywell’s 2025–26 outlook ex-Solstice. Honeywell International Inc.

  • Quantinuum milestones: funding, roadmap (100 logical-qubit target by 2027) and any formal IPO steps. quantinuum.com+1

Risks

Aerospace cycle or aftermarket cooling; Automation growth/margin pressure; execution risk around multi-step separations; macro/FX; and timing/valuation risk around any Quantinuum transaction. Reuters


Bottom line

  • Near-term: Solstice spin is concrete and imminent; HON has demonstrated core earnings resilience even after adjusting for the carve-out. Honeywell+1

  • Medium-term: Two-way upside—operational focus from the 2026 Aerospace/Automation split and optionality from a potential Quantinuum listing in 2026–27. Reuters+1

Here’s a sum-of-the-parts table and valuation snapshot comparing Honeywell pre-spin, post-spin (core), and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), including basic metrics and rationale:


🧮 Sum-of-the-Parts View (as of October 27 2025)

Segment / CompanyFY 2025E Sales ($ B)FY 2025E Adj EBIT MarginFY 2025E EPS / EBIT ($ B)EV/EBIT × AssumptionImplied EV ($ B)Comments
Honeywell (core post-Solstice)38.0 – 39.022 %8.4 – 8.616×135 – 138Aerospace & Automation focus; strong backlog; mid-cycle margins
Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS)2.8 – 3.017 %0.5 – 0.5512×6 – 7Specialty materials, refrigerants, semiconductor cooling, sustainable chem
Quantinuum (Honeywell stake ~ 54 %)10× revenue (est. ~ $1 B valuation slice)10 – 12Private; ~$10 B enterprise value per late-2025 round
Net cash & other adj.+3Pro forma net cash after spin-prep debt issues

→ Sum-of-Parts EV ≈ $154–160 B
At a current equity market cap of ~$137 B, the implied upside range is +12–17 % if the market re-rates Honeywell and Solstice in line with peers post-spin.


🧭 “What You Get” per 100 Honeywell shares (post-distribution)

ComponentShare ratioImplied value*Notes
Honeywell (core)100 shares retained~$21,500Ongoing Aerospace + Automation focus
Solstice (SOLS)25 shares received (1 : 4 ratio)~$1,200 – 1,400Independent Nasdaq listing Oct 30
Total package value~$22,700 – $23,000Equivalent to ~ 10–13 % uplift if Solstice holds fair value range

*Assumes HON $215, SOLS initial $45–55.


🧩 How this Reshapes Honeywell

CategoryPre-SpinPost-Spin
Business Mix45 % Aerospace, 25 % Automation, 20 % Materials, 10 % Others~55 % Aerospace, 40 % Automation, 5 % Other
Revenue DiversificationBroader industrial footprintNarrower, higher-margin cyclicals
EPS MixIncludes volatile materials cycleMore stable defense/aerospace + automation
Capital AllocationMixedSharper focus; potential buybacks or Quantinuum growth funding

🧠 Key Takeaways

  • Solstice listing (Oct 30) is immediate, clean, and tax-free, unlocking ~$6–7 B in stand-alone equity value.

  • Honeywell core remains a diversified industrial tech play at ~20× FY 2025 EPS with above-peer margin resilience.

  • Quantinuum remains a powerful hidden call option—IPO talk for 2026-27 with valuations rising toward $10 B+.

  • Sum-of-parts math suggests current price undervalues the combined pieces by ~12–17 %.

  • Dividend: 2.0–2.2 % yield post-spin; expected continuity of Honeywell’s dividend track record.

  • Disclosure:  Obviously, we are long Honeywell (HON)  HON) main business segments and their recent contribution to revenue and profit, based on the latest available public disclosures:


    🚀 Main Segments & Approximate Sizes

    Honeywell reports four primary segments (prior to the full spin-off of its Advanced Materials unit). The segments and their approximate revenue/margin profiles are:

    SegmentDescriptionLatest Info
    Aerospace TechnologiesCommercial aftermarket & OEM avionics, business/general aviation, defense & spaceIn 2024, this segment generated approx. $15 billion in revenue (about 40 % of the company) per news commentary. Financial Times+2Reuters+2
    Automation (Industrial Automation / Building Automation / Productivity & Workflow Solutions)Factory/plant automation, warehouse & workflow, sensing & safety, building products/solutionsAccording to commentary, the “automation business” was ~$18 billion in annual revenue. Financial Times+1
    Advanced Materials (to be spun-off as Solstice)Specialty chemicals/materials, refrigerants, semiconductor cooling, protective fibers etc.2024 commentary suggested approx. $4 billion in revenue for this unit. Financial Times
    Energy & Sustainability Solutions (ESS) / Other segmentsIncludes UOP (refining catalysts & equipment), building solutions, energy systemsThe 4Q 2024 results show growth of ~1% organically in this segment. Honeywell International Inc.+1

    📊 More Detailed Figures & Trends


    ✅ What this means

    • The Aerospace segment is clearly the largest individual unit, with ~40% of total revenue.

    • Automation is broadly defined but also a major contributor (~35-45% range depending on how sub-segments are aggregated).

    • The Advanced Materials (Solstice) segment (to be spun off) is smaller in scale yet strategically meaningful.

    • Margins and profit contribution vary significantly: Aerospace tends to command higher aftermarket/defense margins; Automation is more cyclical and exposed to industrial demand; Materials is more commodity and cycle-sensitive.


    📊 Q3 2025 Segment Results (three‐months ended Sept 30)

    From Honeywell’s 10-Q and earnings release: Stock Titan+2Honeywell+2

    SegmentNet Sales (USD M)Growth y/yNotes
    Aerospace Technologies4,511+12% organic Honeywell International Inc.+1Strong aftermarket & defense.
    Industrial Automation2,274Flat to +1% organic Honeywell+1Some softness.
    Building Automation1,878Up (from ~1,745M prior) Stock TitanModerate growth.
    Energy & Sustainability Solutions (ESS)1,742Up from ~1,563M prior year Stock TitanSmaller mix.
    Total Net Sales10,408+7% (reported) Honeywell International Inc.+1

    Margin / Profitability indicators

    • Aerospace segment margin in Q3: ~26.1% (down 1.6 pts year over year) Honeywell

    • Industrial Automation margin: ~18.8% (down ~1.5 pts y/y) Honeywell

    • Full-year (guide) overall segment margin expected ~22.9%–23.0% (up ~0.3-0.4 pts) Honeywell

    • Operating cash flow for first nine months: $5,204 M vs $3,816 M prior year. Stock Titan

    • Cash & equivalents at Sep 30: $12,930 M. Stock Titan


    ✅ Key Takeaways

    • The Aerospace segment is currently the strongest performer in growth and margin.

    • Industrial Automation, though large, is under pressure: very weak growth + margin decline. That is a risk area.

    • Building Automation & ESS are middling but play supportive roles in Honeywell’s portfolio.

    • The high cash flow and strong balance sheet (over $12.9 B cash) give Honeywell flexibility for portfolio actions (spin-offs, M&A, dividends).

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Raymond James just initiated coverage of Ucore Rare Metals with a price target of $14.50 (Today under $7) Here's why!

 


Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (TSXV: UCU | OTCQX: UURAF)

Positioning North America for rare-earth independence


1️⃣ Company Overview

Ucore Rare Metals Inc. is a Canadian critical-minerals company focused on establishing a North American supply chain for rare earth elements (REEs) — especially heavy rare earth elements (HREEs), which are critical for:

  • Electric vehicle motors (NdFeB magnets)

  • Wind turbines

  • Aerospace & defense systems

  • Advanced electronics & semiconductors

Headquarters: Halifax, Nova Scotia
Core Strategy: Develop mine-to-magnet capability through:

  1. The Bokan-Dotson Ridge deposit in Alaska (HREE source)

  2. The Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex (SMC) — a state-of-the-art REE separation and oxide production facility using Ucore’s RapidSX™ technology.

Recent rating:

  • 📈 Raymond James (Oct 2025): Initiated with “Strong Buy”, price target C$14.50

  • 💰 Current price (Oct 23 2025): around C$6.85

That implies >110% potential upside if targets are achieved.


2️⃣ Core Assets & Operations

A. Bokan–Dotson Ridge Project (Prince of Wales Island, Alaska)

FeatureDetails
Ownership100% Ucore
Resource~4.79 Mt indicated @ 0.60% TREO; 1.05 Mt inferred @ 0.60% TREO
Elements of InterestHeavy REEs (Dysprosium, Terbium, Yttrium)
GeologyPeralkaline intrusive complex with REE-rich dykes/veins
Permitting StatusAdvanced exploration; environmental studies ongoing
Strategic ValueOnly U.S. heavy REE deposit near “shovel-ready” stage

Why it matters

  • HREEs are among the most critical materials in global defense, wind, and EV supply chains — and 90%+ currently come from China.

  • Bokan offers domestic U.S. control, a key national security priority.

  • Ucore plans to integrate Bokan’s feed into its Louisiana facility to close the supply loop.

  • Alaska and U.S. federal government have shown long-term support for critical minerals development.

Challenges

  • Remote logistics and infrastructure (Tongass National Forest region).

  • Requires substantial capital and environmental permitting before construction.

  • Still at pre-feasibility stage — not yet producing.

🟢 Bottom line:
Bokan is strategic, long-term upside, not immediate cashflow. It gives Ucore a hard-asset base and strengthens its “North American independence” narrative.


B. Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex (SMC)

FeatureDetails
LocationAlexandria, Louisiana (England Airpark, FTZ site)
Facility size~80,800 sq ft brownfield facility on 10.7 acres
TechnologyRapidSX™ rare-earth separation process
SupportUS DoD – US$22.4 million funding (OT Agreement)
Planned capacityPhase 1 ≈ 2,000 t/year TREO; scalable to 7,500 t/year
TimelineCommissioning 2026 → Initial output 2026–27
FeedstockLOIs & offtake discussions (e.g., Critical Metals Corp.)

Why it matters

  • This is Ucore’s commercial cornerstone.

  • The SMC gives the company the ability to process, separate, and refine REEs domestically, breaking China’s near-monopoly.

  • The DoD contract validates the tech and strategic importance.

  • Being in a Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) offers tax & customs advantages.

  • Supported by Louisiana Economic Development incentives and local workforce programs.

RapidSX™ Technology


  • Ucore’s proprietary method for faster, cheaper, and more efficient separation of REEs compared with traditional solvent extraction.

  • Demonstrated at pilot scale in Ontario; now scaling commercially.

Risks

  • Execution & timing risk: construction, commissioning, and scale-up must stay on schedule.

  • Feedstock risk: success depends on securing consistent concentrate supply.

  • Technology scale-up: commercialization always carries risk when scaling lab tech to industrial scale.

🟢 Bottom line:
Louisiana SMC is the near-term growth driver and key to validating Ucore’s valuation. Successful commissioning would move Ucore from “story stock” to “operational producer.”


3️⃣ Strategic Context & Partnerships

  • U.S. Department of Defense:

    • Awarded Ucore US$22.4 million under the Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment (IBAS) program to help deploy RapidSX™ in the Louisiana facility.

    • Signals U.S. government intent to build a domestic REE supply chain.

  • Critical Metals Corp (via Tanbreez project, Greenland):

    • Signed 10-year LOI for up to 10,000 t/year of HREE concentrate feedstock for Ucore’s Louisiana facility.

  • State of Louisiana:

    • Offering tax incentives, job-creation grants, and infrastructure support.


4️⃣ Financial Snapshot (as of mid-2025)

MetricEstimate / Status
Market Cap~C$60–70 million
Share Price~C$6.85
Analyst TargetRaymond James – C$14.50 (Strong Buy)
Cash on hand~C$12–15 million (post-financing mid-2025)
DoD GrantsUS$22.4 million non-dilutive funding
DebtMinimal
RevenuePre-production (no commercial revenue yet)

🟢 Recent capital raise of C$15.5 million (oversubscribed) strengthens near-term liquidity for construction and R&D.


5️⃣ Investment Thesis

Bull Case (Why Buy)Bear Case (Risks)
• Exposure to a strategic sector backed by U.S. industrial policy.Pre-revenue company — no commercial cashflow yet.
Government & DoD support adds credibility and funding.Execution & technology risk in scaling RapidSX™.
Strong thematic tailwinds — EVs, wind, defense all need REEs.Capital intensive — future raises may dilute shareholders.
Vertical integration: mine + separation = higher margin potential.Commodity price risk (REE market volatility).
$14.50 analyst target (Raymond James) implies large upside.Timeline risk — 2026–27 production means patience required.

6️⃣ Key Catalysts to Watch

TimeframeCatalyst
Late 2025Construction progress & equipment installation at Louisiana SMC
Early 2026Binding offtake agreements for feedstock
Mid-2026First commissioning tests of RapidSX™ at commercial scale
2027Potential first commercial oxide output
2027–2028Alaska Bokan updated feasibility / permitting milestones

7️⃣ Outlook & Valuation View

  • Analyst consensus: Raymond James initiation (Oct 2025) → “Strong Buy”, C$14.50 target

  • Upside potential: +110% from current levels if SMC stays on schedule and feedstock contracts materialize.

  • Peer comparison: Ucore trades at a discount to U.S. peers like MP Materials (MP NYSE) and Australian REE refiners (Lynas), which have operational cashflows — suggesting room for re-rating if execution succeeds.

  • Strategic optionality: As one of few publicly traded, U.S.–allied REE processors, Ucore could be an acquisition target or partner for defense contractors or magnet manufacturers seeking supply security.


8️⃣ Verdict

Investment Type: Speculative Growth / Strategic Materials
Time Horizon: 2–5 years (execution phase through to production)
Risk Level: High (pre-revenue, execution heavy)
Potential Reward: Very High (vertical integration, government backing, scarcity value)

Summary Judgment:
Ucore Rare Metals offers one of the most compelling “Made-in-North-America” rare-earth stories.
If the Louisiana SMC comes online as planned, it will become a key node in the Western REE supply chain — exactly the kind of project the U.S. government wants to succeed.

The Bokan deposit provides long-term resource depth; the Louisiana facility provides near-term commercial validation.

For investors comfortable with volatility and patient capital, UCU/UURAF offers strong speculative upside supported by national policy trends, technological innovation, and growing investor attention.