If I were coming into quantum new but doing institutional-grade diligence, I’d usually force myself to own a “barbell”: (1) one scaled incumbent with a credible roadmap and ecosystem, plus (2–3) focused pure-plays where upside is most asymmetric.
My top three picks
1) IBM (IBM)
Why it makes the cut: IBM is one of the few players with an end-to-end stack (hardware + software + enterprise distribution) and a roadmap explicitly centered on scaling performance through its System Two architecture and the Heron processor family. IBM+1
Investment logic: as a seasoned investor, IBM is the “quantum exposure with survivability”—you’re not underwriting a single technical bet, and IBM can fund long timelines while commercializing along the way (software, services, hybrid workflows).
Key diligence items to track: roadmap execution (processor performance, error rates, scaling), enterprise adoption, and whether quantum contributes meaningfully to broader IBM growth rather than remaining a perpetual R&D line item. IBM+1
2) IonQ (IONQ)
Why it makes the cut: among the public pure-plays, IonQ is combining (a) trapped-ion positioning with (b) aggressive balance-sheet and ecosystem building. In Q3 2025, IonQ reported $39.9M revenue (222% YoY) and highlighted $1.5B cash as of Sept 30, 2025 and $3.5B pro-forma after an October equity offering—i.e., meaningful financial runway for a long R&D cycle. IonQ+1
They’re also expanding beyond compute into networking / infrastructure via acquisitions (e.g., Lightsynq and Skyloom), which matters if distributed quantum / quantum-secure comms becomes a real value layer. IonQ+1
Investment logic: IonQ is one of the clearest “platform roll-up” attempts in public markets—higher volatility, but potentially the most convex upside if they keep converting technical milestones into commercial contracts and ecosystem control. IonQ Investors+1
On a personal note, I believe IONQ is truly in the sweet spot of Quantum technology, however more volatile at this time. (I am adding at today's levels)
Key diligence items to track: dilution vs. strategic use of capital, conversion of bookings/contracts into repeatable revenue, and whether acquisitions create true integration advantage versus complexity. IonQ+1
3) D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)
Why it makes the cut: D-Wave is differentiated because it has been commercial for years and leans into annealing / optimization use cases (often closer to near-term ROI than fault-tolerant “universal” QC). In Q3 fiscal 2025, D-Wave reported $3.7M revenue (up 100% YoY) and very high non-GAAP gross margin (77.7%), while also showing improved adjusted loss metrics (even as GAAP net loss was distorted by warrant-related, largely non-operating items). dwavequantum.com+1
Investment logic: as a portfolio component, D-Wave can be a “commercial traction bet” in quantum—still high risk, but the story is less purely theoretical than many peers.
Key diligence items to track: whether bookings translate into durable recurring revenue, customer concentration, and how the company sustains growth without constant capital-market dependence. Barron's+1
Why I did not put Rigetti in the top three (even though it’s investable)
Rigetti is investable and has real technical progress, but for a strict “top three” list I usually prefer (a) an incumbent with scale (IBM), plus (b) the two pure-play profiles that are most distinct from each other (IonQ “platform roll-up” + D-Wave “commercial annealing”). Recent analyst coverage often groups IonQ/Rigetti/D-Wave together as the main pure-plays, which is directionally fair, but you asked for three. Barron's
Practical note (how I’d implement as a seasoned investor)
Quantum remains a long-duration, high-volatility theme. Even if these are your “best three,” I would treat them like venture-style public equities: smaller position sizes, staged entries, and explicit technical/commercial milestone checkpoints (not just price targets). Barron's
Below is a concise, investor-grade due-diligence scorecard for the three companies discussed. The intent is not to predict winners, but to clarify where each one wins, where risk resides, and what milestones actually matter for capital allocation.
Quantum Investment Due-Diligence Scorecard (Top 3)
Scoring Legend
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5 = Best-in-class
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3 = Adequate / developing
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1 = Weak / speculative
1) IBM (NYSE: IBM) — Incumbent / De-risked Exposure
| Dimension | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Core Technology | 4.5 | Superconducting qubits with the clearest published scaling roadmap (Heron, Condor, System Two). |
| Error Mitigation / Scaling Path | 4.5 | Leader in error mitigation, modular scaling, and quantum-classical integration. |
| Software & Ecosystem | 5.0 | Qiskit is the industry standard; deep developer and enterprise penetration. |
| Commercialization | 4.0 | Real enterprise pilots, but quantum is not yet a material revenue driver. |
| Balance Sheet / Runway | 5.0 | Effectively unlimited relative to pure-plays. |
| Dilution Risk | 5.0 | None. |
| Upside Asymmetry | 3.0 | Lower multiple expansion; upside is strategic, not explosive. |
Role in a portfolio:
Foundation / anchor exposure to quantum with minimal existential risk.
2) IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) — High-Convexity Platform Bet
| Dimension | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Core Technology | 4.0 | Trapped-ion architecture with strong fidelity and coherence advantages. |
| Error Mitigation / Scaling Path | 3.5 | Fewer qubits today, but strong logical-qubit potential long term. |
| Software & Ecosystem | 3.5 | Cloud-first strategy via hyperscalers; expanding platform breadth via acquisitions. |
| Commercialization | 3.5 | Fast revenue growth, government + enterprise traction, still early. |
| Balance Sheet / Runway | 4.5 | One of the strongest cash positions among pure-plays. |
| Dilution Risk | 2.5 | Real and ongoing—must be justified by execution. |
| Upside Asymmetry | 5.0 | One of the highest payoff profiles if roadmap + ecosystem converge. |
Role in a portfolio:
Primary upside driver—this is where outsized returns would come from if public quantum winners emerge.
3) D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) — Near-Term Commercialization Bet
| Dimension | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Core Technology | 3.5 | Quantum annealing—narrower than gate-based QC but proven for optimization. |
| Error Mitigation / Scaling Path | 3.0 | Not pursuing universal fault-tolerant QC, but scaling annealers effectively. |
| Software & Ecosystem | 3.0 | Focused tooling aimed at optimization users. |
| Commercialization | 4.5 | Real customers, recurring revenue, strong gross margins. |
| Balance Sheet / Runway | 3.0 | Improved but still sensitive to capital markets. |
| Dilution Risk | 3.0 | Moderate; better than many peers, not trivial. |
| Upside Asymmetry | 3.5 | Less “moonshot,” more execution-dependent upside. |
Role in a portfolio:
Revenue-led hedge—closest thing to an operating quantum business today.
Summary View (Investor Framing)
| Company | What You’re Really Buying |
|---|---|
| IBM | Survivability, ecosystem dominance, and quantum optionality inside a global enterprise. |
| IonQ | The most credible pure-play asymmetric upside in public markets. |
| D-Wave | Evidence that quantum can already generate revenue, even if not universal QC. |
How a Seasoned Investor Would Size This
(Not advice—illustrative framework only)
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IBM: 40–50% of quantum allocation (risk control)
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IonQ: 30–40% (convex upside)
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D-Wave: 15–25% (commercial execution bet)
Milestones That Actually Matter (Ignore the Noise)
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IBM: Logical qubit demonstrations + enterprise workloads moving from pilot → production
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IonQ: Sustained revenue growth without disproportionate dilution; successful integration of networking acquisitions
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D-Wave: Expansion of recurring enterprise contracts and cash-flow trajectory improvement
Editors Note
The next logical step
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Add Rigetti as a fourth comparator, or
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Convert this into a 1–2 year milestone-triggered investment plan
(what would make you add, trim, or exit each position).
Try not to get too confused by all the noise!
