"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"
Showing posts with label Ai. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ai. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

"lithium is no longer just an EV story. It’s becoming an AI story. A big one"!


"Lithium is becoming an AI story — as artificial intelligence accelerates data center growth, massive new energy storage capacity will be needed, and lithium is at the core of that infrastructure."


⚡️ Smackover Lithium — A Strategic Resource for the AI & Energy Storage Era

🧠 Why Lithium Is Now an AI Story

The rise of AI and machine learning has triggered explosive growth in data centers — and those facilities demand huge amounts of constant and backup power.

  • As more AI servers come online, energy storage will become essential to keep data flowing even during outages or demand spikes.

  • Lithium-ion batteries, already dominant in EVs, are now being deployed at scale in AI-enabled data centers, grid storage, and backup power arrays.

  • This means lithium is no longer just about electric vehicles — it’s about powering the AI economy.


📍 What Is Smackover Lithium?

Smackover Lithium is a large-scale lithium brine project in the U.S. Southeast. It aims to supply high-grade lithium from underground brine reservoirs — ideal for EVs, grid batteries, and AI-driven data center storage.

  • The project spans southern Arkansas and east Texas, sitting atop the Smackover Formation, a vast underground structure filled with mineral-rich brine.

  • Unlike hard-rock lithium mining, brine projects like Smackover offer lower surface impact and can be processed with cleaner, faster DLE technology.


📦 How Big Is It?

  • U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Smackover Formation could host 5+ million metric tons of lithium — one of the largest in North America.

  • The project has two main zones:

    • SWA Project (Southwest Arkansas) — Flagship development site with high lithium concentrations (437 mg/L average)

    • East Texas (Franklin Project) — Newly announced resource area with some of the highest lithium-in-brine grades recorded in the U.S. (up to 806 mg/L)


🛠 Who Owns & Operates It?

CompanyRoleOwnership
Standard Lithium (SLI)Operator, technology provider55%
Equinor ASA (EQNR)Strategic partner, capital provider45%
  • Standard Lithium is a lithium tech company using Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE).

  • Equinor, a global energy giant (formerly Statoil), is supplying capital and deep expertise in subsurface development.


⚙️ Technology Edge: Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE)

Smackover Lithium uses DLE, a newer process that:

  • Pulls lithium directly from brine using selective filters.

  • Eliminates large evaporation ponds.

  • Returns most water to the ground, reducing environmental footprint.

  • Achieved >99% lithium recovery in pilot operations.

This makes Smackover more scalable, cost-efficient, and ESG-friendly than older methods.


💵 Recent Big Developments (2025)

💰 1. Over $1 Billion in Project Finance Interest

  • Smackover Lithium received expressions of interest from major export credit agencies — including U.S. EXIM Bank and Export Finance Norway — and global banks.

  • These groups are interested in providing over $1.1 billion in senior debt to help fund Phase 1 of the SWA project (total capex ~$1.45B).

  • The project also received a $225 million U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) grant.

📌 Why this matters: Big, institutional money doesn’t chase hype — it follows viability. This shows Smackover is seen as real, scalable, and strategic.


📈 2. Positive Feasibility Study Completed

  • In September 2025, Smackover Lithium released a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) showing:

    • Strong project economics

    • 22,500 tonnes per year lithium output (Phase 1)

    • Project NPV (net present value): $1.7 billion+

📌 This is a critical step before a final decision to build (expected late 2025).


🌎 3. New Resource Discovery in Texas

  • East Texas “Franklin Project” was added with a maiden inferred resource.

  • Contains extremely high lithium grades (up to 806 mg/L) — among the best in North America.

  • Offers optional scale-up potential beyond Arkansas.


🏭 Location Advantage

  • Smackover sits close to major U.S. industrial hubs, auto factories, and battery makers.

  • Can serve EV, grid storage, and data center battery clients with minimal transport costs.

  • Qualifies for U.S. tax credits, subsidies, and IRA incentives.


📊 Why It’s Interesting for Small Investors

  • Lithium is now essential for AI infrastructure — not just EVs.

  • Smackover is:

    • One of the most advanced brine lithium projects in the U.S.

    • Supported by government funding AND major private capital.

    • Environmentally better than many other lithium projects.

  • This is a real project, not a concept — and it's backed by a Fortune 100 energy partner (Equinor).


⚠️ What to Watch

  • Final Investment Decision (FID) still pending (target: late 2025)

  • Lithium price fluctuations could affect economics

  • Execution risk (construction, permitting, scaling)

  • Potential for equity dilution if more capital is needed


✅ Bottom Line

Smackover Lithium is shaping up to be a flagship U.S. lithium project, positioned at the intersection of:

  • EV boom

  • Grid storage revolution

  • AI-powered energy demand

Backed by Equinor, a $225M DOE grant, and over $1B in financing interest, this project may soon become a major domestic lithium supplier.

🔋 Lithium isn’t just for EVs anymore — it’s powering the AI era. Smackover might be one of the first North American projects to meet that demand.

Monday, December 15, 2025

Quantum Technology, Where, how and why I am invested in this cutting edge technology of the future!

 If I were coming into quantum new but doing institutional-grade diligence, I’d usually force myself to own a “barbell”: (1) one scaled incumbent with a credible roadmap and ecosystem, plus (2–3) focused pure-plays where upside is most asymmetric.


My top three picks

1) IBM (IBM)

Why it makes the cut: IBM is one of the few players with an end-to-end stack (hardware + software + enterprise distribution) and a roadmap explicitly centered on scaling performance through its System Two architecture and the Heron processor family. IBM+1
Investment logic: as a seasoned investor, IBM is the “quantum exposure with survivability”—you’re not underwriting a single technical bet, and IBM can fund long timelines while commercializing along the way (software, services, hybrid workflows).

Key diligence items to track: roadmap execution (processor performance, error rates, scaling), enterprise adoption, and whether quantum contributes meaningfully to broader IBM growth rather than remaining a perpetual R&D line item. IBM+1


2) IonQ (IONQ)

Why it makes the cut: among the public pure-plays, IonQ is combining (a) trapped-ion positioning with (b) aggressive balance-sheet and ecosystem building. In Q3 2025, IonQ reported $39.9M revenue (222% YoY) and highlighted $1.5B cash as of Sept 30, 2025 and $3.5B pro-forma after an October equity offering—i.e., meaningful financial runway for a long R&D cycle. IonQ+1
They’re also expanding beyond compute into networking / infrastructure via acquisitions (e.g., Lightsynq and Skyloom), which matters if distributed quantum / quantum-secure comms becomes a real value layer. IonQ+1

Investment logic: IonQ is one of the clearest “platform roll-up” attempts in public markets—higher volatility, but potentially the most convex upside if they keep converting technical milestones into commercial contracts and ecosystem control. IonQ Investors+1

On a personal note, I believe IONQ is truly in the sweet spot of Quantum technology, however more volatile at this time. (I am adding at today's levels)

Key diligence items to track: dilution vs. strategic use of capital, conversion of bookings/contracts into repeatable revenue, and whether acquisitions create true integration advantage versus complexity. IonQ+1


3) D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)

Why it makes the cut: D-Wave is differentiated because it has been commercial for years and leans into annealing / optimization use cases (often closer to near-term ROI than fault-tolerant “universal” QC). In Q3 fiscal 2025, D-Wave reported $3.7M revenue (up 100% YoY) and very high non-GAAP gross margin (77.7%), while also showing improved adjusted loss metrics (even as GAAP net loss was distorted by warrant-related, largely non-operating items). dwavequantum.com+1

Investment logic: as a portfolio component, D-Wave can be a “commercial traction bet” in quantum—still high risk, but the story is less purely theoretical than many peers.

Key diligence items to track: whether bookings translate into durable recurring revenue, customer concentration, and how the company sustains growth without constant capital-market dependence. Barron's+1


Why I did not put Rigetti in the top three (even though it’s investable)

Rigetti is investable and has real technical progress, but for a strict “top three” list I usually prefer (a) an incumbent with scale (IBM), plus (b) the two pure-play profiles that are most distinct from each other (IonQ “platform roll-up” + D-Wave “commercial annealing”). Recent analyst coverage often groups IonQ/Rigetti/D-Wave together as the main pure-plays, which is directionally fair, but you asked for three. Barron's


Practical note (how I’d implement as a seasoned investor)

Quantum remains a long-duration, high-volatility theme. Even if these are your “best three,” I would treat them like venture-style public equities: smaller position sizes, staged entries, and explicit technical/commercial milestone checkpoints (not just price targets). Barron's

Below is a concise, investor-grade due-diligence scorecard for the three companies discussed. The intent is not to predict winners, but to clarify where each one wins, where risk resides, and what milestones actually matter for capital allocation.


Quantum Investment Due-Diligence Scorecard (Top 3)

Scoring Legend

  • 5 = Best-in-class

  • 3 = Adequate / developing

  • 1 = Weak / speculative


1) IBM (NYSE: IBM) — Incumbent / De-risked Exposure

DimensionScoreRationale
Core Technology4.5Superconducting qubits with the clearest published scaling roadmap (Heron, Condor, System Two).
Error Mitigation / Scaling Path4.5Leader in error mitigation, modular scaling, and quantum-classical integration.
Software & Ecosystem5.0Qiskit is the industry standard; deep developer and enterprise penetration.
Commercialization4.0Real enterprise pilots, but quantum is not yet a material revenue driver.
Balance Sheet / Runway5.0Effectively unlimited relative to pure-plays.
Dilution Risk5.0None.
Upside Asymmetry3.0Lower multiple expansion; upside is strategic, not explosive.

Role in a portfolio:
Foundation / anchor exposure to quantum with minimal existential risk.


2) IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) — High-Convexity Platform Bet

DimensionScoreRationale
Core Technology4.0Trapped-ion architecture with strong fidelity and coherence advantages.
Error Mitigation / Scaling Path3.5Fewer qubits today, but strong logical-qubit potential long term.
Software & Ecosystem3.5Cloud-first strategy via hyperscalers; expanding platform breadth via acquisitions.
Commercialization3.5Fast revenue growth, government + enterprise traction, still early.
Balance Sheet / Runway4.5One of the strongest cash positions among pure-plays.
Dilution Risk2.5Real and ongoing—must be justified by execution.
Upside Asymmetry5.0One of the highest payoff profiles if roadmap + ecosystem converge.

Role in a portfolio:
Primary upside driver—this is where outsized returns would come from if public quantum winners emerge.


3) D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) — Near-Term Commercialization Bet

DimensionScoreRationale
Core Technology3.5Quantum annealing—narrower than gate-based QC but proven for optimization.
Error Mitigation / Scaling Path3.0Not pursuing universal fault-tolerant QC, but scaling annealers effectively.
Software & Ecosystem3.0Focused tooling aimed at optimization users.
Commercialization4.5Real customers, recurring revenue, strong gross margins.
Balance Sheet / Runway3.0Improved but still sensitive to capital markets.
Dilution Risk3.0Moderate; better than many peers, not trivial.
Upside Asymmetry3.5Less “moonshot,” more execution-dependent upside.

Role in a portfolio:
Revenue-led hedge—closest thing to an operating quantum business today.


Summary View (Investor Framing)

CompanyWhat You’re Really Buying
IBMSurvivability, ecosystem dominance, and quantum optionality inside a global enterprise.
IonQThe most credible pure-play asymmetric upside in public markets.
D-WaveEvidence that quantum can already generate revenue, even if not universal QC.

How a Seasoned Investor Would Size This

(Not advice—illustrative framework only)

  • IBM: 40–50% of quantum allocation (risk control)

  • IonQ: 30–40% (convex upside)

  • D-Wave: 15–25% (commercial execution bet)


Milestones That Actually Matter (Ignore the Noise)

  • IBM: Logical qubit demonstrations + enterprise workloads moving from pilot → production

  • IonQ: Sustained revenue growth without disproportionate dilution; successful integration of networking acquisitions

  • D-Wave: Expansion of recurring enterprise contracts and cash-flow trajectory improvement


Editors  Note

The next logical step 

  • Add Rigetti as a fourth comparator, or

  • Convert this into a 1–2 year milestone-triggered investment plan 

  • (what would make you add, trim, or exit each position).

  • Try not to get too confused by all the noise!


Wednesday, September 3, 2025

The Trump Administration has recently invested in both MP Materials and Intel! Question: who might be next, and why!

 


These critical U.S. companies were named in the CHIPS Act and have received preliminary agreements (Preliminary Memoranda of Terms, or PMTs)—but for which funding has not yet been fully disbursed (i.e., not finalized yet):

Ed Note:
It appears the Trump administration is turning giveaways from the chips act, into "investments" in those companies targeted. This report speculates on which companies might be next, after investments have been made in Intel and MP Materials.



1. Microchip Technology (NASDAQ: MCHP)

  • The U.S. Department of Commerce signed a non-binding Preliminary Memorandum of Terms (PMT) to provide approximately $162 million under the CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at bolstering domestic semiconductor supply for automotive, defense, and aerospace industries. That funding has not yet been finalized.
    Z2Data+10NIST+10TSMC+10

  • In a twist, Microchip later backed off pursuing the grant for expansion of its Gresham, Oregon facility. That further suggests no disbursement has occurred yet.
    KGW+1


2. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU)

  • Micron has a preliminary agreement for a $6.1 billion CHIPS Act grant to build a chip fabrication campus in Clay, New York ("megafab") and boost capacity in Boise, Idaho.
    Chuck Schumer's Senate Website+15Wikipedia+15

  • As of now, this remains preliminary, which implies that funding has not been fully disbursed.
    Barron'sThe Verge


3. GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ: GFS)

  • In February 2024, GlobalFoundries signed a preliminary agreement for over $1.5 billion in CHIPS funding to strengthen domestic legacy chip supply.
    New York Post+1

  • The award was later finalized in November 2024—meaning the preliminary stage was completed and funding is now moving forward.
    Wikipedia


4. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC)


Summary Table

CompanyPreliminary Agreement?Finalized?Status
MicrochipYes, ~$162 M PMTNo, not finalizedFunding has not been disbursed
MicronYes, ~$6.1 B PMTNo, not finalizedStill in preliminary stage
GlobalFoundriesYes, ~$1.5 B PMTYes, finalizedFunding now moving forward
IntelYes, ~$8.5 B PMTYes, finalizedFunds now to be disbursed

Companies still in preliminary-only stage (no final disbursement yet):

  • Microchip Technology (MCHP) – ~$162 M PMT, not finalized.

  • Micron Technology (MU) – ~$6.1 B PMT, not finalized.


    Ed Note:  

  • Listen to any hints of more investments coming from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik in late September or before!

narrowing to AI tech & infrastructure and focusing on U.S.-domiciled names, here’s a balanced list of 10 companies that (a) are strategically important for American tech leadership, and (b) could see outsized upside if the U.S. government explicitly takes a position or expands incentives.


Core chip manufacturing (the foundation)

1) Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) — Leading-edge and advanced packaging fabs across AZ/OH/OR/NM; already the single biggest CHIPS Act beneficiary (grants + loans). A direct stake would further de-risk multi-node U.S. capacity and supply chain resilience. ReutersU.S. Department of Commerce

2) Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) — U.S. leader in DRAM/HBM and NAND; memory is the oxygen of AI clusters. The White House already announced a preliminary CHIPS package up to ~$6.1B for new U.S. fabs—government equity/co-investment would accelerate HBM ramp critical to training/inference. The White HouseThe Verge

3) GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ: GFS) — Only U.S. pure-play foundry at scale, trusted for DoD needs; finalized up to $1.5B CHIPS award to expand New York and modernize Vermont (incl. GaN). A government position would fortify secure domestic supply for auto/defense/edge-AI. NISTGlobalFoundries

4) Microchip Technology (NASDAQ: MCHP) — Mature-node MCUs/analog that go into everything from defense systems to data-center controls; ~$162M preliminary CHIPS support to expand U.S. fabs. Additional public backing would harden this critical “everywhere silicon” tier. NIST


AI compute & systems (where the work gets done)

5) Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) — Designs/racks full AI systems (GB200/NVL72, HGX B200) and leads on liquid-cooling at rack scale; a federal position signals confidence in domestic AI-server capacity and speeds deployments for gov/defense workloads. SupermicroSupermicro

6) Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET) — The Ethernet backbone for AI clusters (400/800G today, 1.6T on deck). Government support would catalyze U.S.-based networking scale-out across federal/HPC sites. Arista Networks

7) Lattice Semiconductor (NASDAQ: LSCC) — Ultra-low-power FPGAs for edge-AI, control, and security—ideal for ruggedized, power-constrained defense/industrial endpoints. A stake would expand “AI at the edge” capacity domestically. latticesemi.com+1


AI data-center infrastructure (power, cooling, reliability)

8) Vertiv (NYSE: VRT) — Power distribution & advanced liquid-cooling that make giga-scale AI sites possible; expanding NA solutions specifically to ease AI deployments. Federal backing would accelerate retrofits/new builds across critical facilities. Vertiv InvestorsVertiv


Materials & devices that unlock performance

9) Wolfspeed (NYSE: WOLF) — Silicon-carbide (SiC) devices and materials for efficient power (AI data centers, high-power PSUs, EV charging). Proposed $750M CHIPS support + large private capital—public co-investment would speed U.S. SiC capacity vital to AI power chains. WolfspeedSEC

10) MP Materials (NYSE: MP) — U.S. rare-earths mining/separation; DoD has already funded HREE separation at Mountain Pass. A deeper stake would cement a domestic magnet/REE supply for defense, motors, and data-center equipment.

(Recently turned into an investment in the company by the administration)  

U.S. Department of Defense


Why these 10?

  • National-security leverage: Together they span logic, memory, foundry, servers, networking, power/cooling, edge FPGAs, SiC power, and REE supply—i.e., every chokepoint between sand and AI output.

  • Policy momentum: CHIPS/DPA precedents exist (Intel, Micron, GlobalFoundries, Microchip; DoD for MP). Additional capital or a formal government position would reduce financing risk and accelerate

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

No longer just a search engine (Google) Alphabet Inc. is demonstrating robust growth and innovation across its AI, quantum computing, and autonomous vehicle segments


Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Investment & Business Report – April 2025


Executive Summary

Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, continues to solidify its position as a leader in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, autonomous vehicles, and data infrastructure. With robust financial performance and strategic partnerships, Alphabet is poised for sustained growth heading into 2026.


Artificial Intelligence (AI) Innovations

Gemini 2.0 and AI Ecosystem

In December 2024, Google unveiled Gemini 2.0, a multimodal AI model capable of generating audio and images. This model enhances functionalities across Google's products, including AI Overviews in Search, Project Astra, Project Mariner, and Jules for coding assistance. Gemini 2.0 represents a foundation for the emerging era of agentic AI, with broader deployment expected in the coming year.The Verge+2The Verge+2blog.google+2

AI Overviews and User Reach

As of Q1 2025, Google's AI Overviews in Search reach over 1.5 billion users monthly. Originally launched in May 2024, AI Overviews have expanded in functionality, now covering a broader range of queries and incorporating ads to compete with other AI search tools like ChatGPT Search and Perplexity.The Verge


Quantum Computing Advancements

Willow Quantum Chip

In December 2024, Google introduced Willow, a 105-qubit superconducting quantum processor. Willow achieved a benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years, demonstrating its potential for solving complex problems beyond the reach of classical computers.Google Cloud+6Wikipedia+6blog.google+6blog.google+1Wikipedia+1



Commercialization Outlook

Google's head of Quantum AI, Hartmut Neven, predicts that commercial quantum computing applications will be realized within five years, with innovations in fields like materials science, medicine, and energy.thequantuminsider.com+1Wikipedia+1


Waymo: Autonomous Vehicle Leadership

Operational Expansion

Waymo, Alphabet's autonomous ride-hailing arm, continues expanding its service across the U.S., including new cities like Austin, Atlanta, and internationally in Tokyo. 

The company now operates over 250,000 rides weekly in U.S. cities including San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, with planned expansions to Atlanta, Miami, and Washington, DC.Barron's+5Investor's Business Daily+5Waymo+5Barron's+2Business Insider+2Waymo+2



Strategic Partnerships

Waymo has announced plans to explore a collaboration with Toyota to accelerate the development of autonomous driving technologies. As part of the potential partnership, 

Toyota will build a new autonomous vehicle platform to be integrated into Waymo’s self-driving fleet. 

Additionally, the companies aim to jointly enhance next-generation personally owned vehicles using Waymo's autonomous vehicle technology.Forbes+3Reuters+3Waymo+3


Data Infrastructure and AI Synergy

Alphabet's extensive data infrastructure supports its AI and quantum computing initiatives. The company's data centers provide the computational power necessary for training large AI models and conducting complex quantum simulations. This synergy between data infrastructure and advanced technologies positions Alphabet to maintain its competitive edge.


Financial Performance

Q1 2025 Highlights

Cash Position

As of March 31, 2024, Alphabet reported operating cash flow of $28.8 billion for the quarter, reflecting strong liquidity to support ongoing investments in AI, quantum computing, and other strategic areas.SEC


Stock Performance and Outlook

Alphabet's stock (GOOGL) is currently trading at $160.16, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.88 trillion. The company maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.91, indicating strong investor confidence.Yahoo Finance


Conclusion

Alphabet Inc. demonstrates robust growth and innovation across its AI, quantum computing, and autonomous vehicle segments. With strong financials and strategic partnerships, the company is well-positioned to continue its leadership in the technology sector heading into 2026.


Recent Developments in Alphabet's Strategic Initiatives