The Year of Mega IPOs
Why Second-Tier Infrastructure Companies Could Produce the Greatest Alpha
A Retail Investment Thesis Built Around MRVL + CRDO
Executive Summary
Many retail investors will instinctively try to buy the coming AI IPOs:
- Anthropic
- OpenAI
- potentially future agentic AI leaders and infrastructure platforms
That instinct may be wrong.
Historically, the largest wealth creation in platform revolutions often came not from the headline companies, but from the second-tier tollbooths enabling the ecosystem.
Think:
- Internet → Cisco, Qualcomm, Broadcom
- Smartphones → TSMC, Qualcomm, ASML
- Cloud → Nvidia, Arista, Equinix
- EVs → semiconductor and battery suppliers
The argument here is:
The largest risk-adjusted AI alpha from 2026–2029 may not come from buying Anthropic or OpenAI at trillion-dollar valuations. It may come from owning the infrastructure companies required to make them function.
That is where the MRVL + CRDO thesis becomes compelling.
Anthropic and OpenAI are both increasingly expected to pursue IPOs in 2026, amid extraordinary investor enthusiasm around frontier AI. Recent reporting suggests OpenAI and Anthropic could be among the largest IPOs in history, with valuations approaching the trillion-dollar range.
Part 1: Why 2026 Could Be “The Year of AI IPOs”
The market is entering what could become:
The public monetization phase of the AI revolution
We are moving from:
Phase 1 (2023–2025)
GPU scarcity / model training
Winner:
- NVIDIA
Phase 2 (2025–2027)
Agentic AI deployment
Winners:
- Anthropic
- OpenAI
- enterprise AI ecosystems
Phase 3 (2026–2029)
Infrastructure scaling
Likely winners:
- networking
- optics
- interconnect
- memory movement
- AI compute orchestration
This shift matters enormously.
The market is beginning to realize:
AI does not scale linearly.
Every leap in intelligence requires:
- exponentially more bandwidth,
- lower latency,
- greater memory movement,
- more energy efficiency,
- larger AI clusters.
Anthropic’s rapid growth and massive compute commitments illustrate the scale of infrastructure required.
Recent reports indicate Anthropic has committed to extraordinary compute spending and is scaling aggressively to support Claude and future agentic systems.
Part 2: Why Buying Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs May Not Produce the Best Alpha
This may sound counterintuitive.
But by IPO:
OpenAI and Anthropic may already be priced for perfection.
Potential issues:
1. Massive valuations
Reports now discuss valuations:
- OpenAI: ~$850B–$1T
- Anthropic: hundreds of billions approaching $1T
At those levels:
future upside becomes mathematically harder.
A stock at a $900B valuation doubling to $1.8T is possible—but far harder than a $60–$100B infrastructure supplier tripling.
2. Capital intensity risk
AI model companies burn extraordinary capital.
Anthropic reportedly spends billions on compute and infrastructure to maintain frontier capability.
Retail investors may discover:
Owning the “brains” is expensive.
Sometimes:
owning the shovels is better!
3. Commoditization risk
Over time:
Claude, GPT, Gemini, xAI, and others may compete aggressively.
Margins could compress.
But:
the infrastructure still gets paid.
Whether OpenAI wins or Anthropic wins:
"Data still moves no matter who wins or how systems eventually commoditize".
Part 3: The Real Bottleneck = Moving Intelligence
This is the core thesis.
Most investors still think:
AI = chips.
That is increasingly incomplete.
The next bottleneck appears to be:
data movement
Meaning:
Compute cannot function without:
- Networking
- Interconnect
- Optical systems
- Memory fabrics
- Low-power transmission
This framework is becoming increasingly correct:
GPU boom → networking boom → photonics boom
Part 4: Why MRVL Matters
Marvell Technology = The “AI Infrastructure Backbone”
Marvell sits at the intersection of:
- custom AI silicon
- networking
- optical interconnect
- cloud AI scaling
- hyperscaler architecture
Importantly:
Marvell is deeply tied to Amazon Trainium, which is highly relevant because Anthropic increasingly depends on AWS infrastructure.
Amazon and Anthropic expanded their collaboration in 2026 around Trainium compute and large-scale cloud commitments.
Why MRVL could outperform expectations
Marvell is selling:
"The roads AI travels on"!
Whether:
- Anthropic wins,
- OpenAI wins,
- xAI wins,
- or all of them win,
Marvell still benefits.
That diversification matters.
Strengths
✔ Lower risk than smaller AI names
✔ Multiple hyperscaler exposure
✔ AWS/Trainium leverage
✔ AI networking leadership
✔ Strong institutional ownership
Weakness
❌ Already well discovered by Wall Street
Part 5: Why CRDO Matters
Credo Technology Group = The Hidden AI Bottleneck
This is the higher-alpha piece.
Credo focuses on:
- high-speed connectivity
- optical DSPs
- Active Electrical Cables (AECs)
- ultra-efficient interconnect
As AI clusters become larger:
bandwidth becomes everything.
Credo increasingly positions itself as a connectivity-at-scale company for hyperscaler AI environments, with major pushes into optical solutions for AI fabrics.
Recent growth has been explosive, driven by hyperscaler demand and AI networking expansion.
Why CRDO could become a multi-bagger
Because investors may still underestimate:
how much data movement Agentic AI requires.
Agentic systems are not simple chatbots.
They reason.
They call tools.
They chain models.
They coordinate across systems.
That creates:
massively larger networking demand.
Part 6: The Combined Thesis
Why MRVL + CRDO together makes sense
Building an
AI Tollbooth Portfolio
MRVL = stability + platform exposure
CRDO = asymmetric upside + networking torque
Why this pairing works
| Factor | MRVL | CRDO |
|---|---|---|
| Risk | Lower | Higher |
| Upside | Strong | Very High |
| Anthropic relevance | High | Indirect but meaningful |
| Agentic AI leverage | High | Extremely high |
| Valuation risk | Moderate | Higher |
| Hyperscaler exposure | Broad | Concentrated |
The combination reduces risk while preserving upside.
Suggested Retail Allocation
For a retail investor seeking:
alpha without excessive concentration risk
I currently favor:
60% MRVL / 40% CRDO
Why?
Because:
MRVL acts as the anchor, while CRDO provides the torque.
In portfolio construction terms:
MRVL lowers the probability of catastrophic disappointment.
CRDO raises the probability of outsized returns.
Risks to the Thesis
1. AI capex slowdown
If hyperscalers pause spending:
Both stocks may correct sharply.
2. IPO disappointment
If OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs underperform:
AI sentiment could temporarily weaken.
3. Valuation compression
Especially for CRDO.
4. Networking commoditization
Competition from:
- Broadcom
- Nvidia
- internal hyperscaler solutions
Bottom Line
The smartest way for a retail investor to play the Year of AI IPOs may not be buying the IPOs themselves.
Instead:
buy the companies that must win regardless of which AI lab dominates.
Among second-tier infrastructure companies:
MRVL + CRDO is one of the strongest two-stock AI infrastructure theses I currently see for 2026–2029
because it aligns directly with what I believe becomes the next great bottleneck:
"The movement of intelligence itself"!
Ed Note:
I have no current shares of either MRVL or CRDO at present, but have placed them on our watch list for now!
