"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"

Monday, June 9, 2025

IONQ is accelerating it's growth in the Quantum race with the acquisition of Oxford Ionics, it's 6th acquisition!

  


🔬 IonQ, Inc. – Updated Investment/Business Report

Ticker: IONQ | Exchange: NYSE | Market Cap (June 2025): ~$11.2B
Sector: Quantum Computing | Headquarters: College Park, MD, USA
Last Price: $40.00 USD


📌 Executive Summary

IonQ continues to solidify its position as a first-mover in the quantum computing industry, making bold strategic acquisitions and advancing multiple hardware modalities in parallel. The recent $1B+ (mostly stock) acquisition of Oxford Ionics marks IonQ’s sixth acquisition in three years, and positions the company to diversify its trapped-ion technology roadmap and further reduce reliance on lasers, a major cost and complexity factor in ion-trap systems. IonQ’s aggressive buildout, combined with its quantum networking push (Qubitekk, Lightsynq), makes it a central player not just in scalable quantum computing—but potentially in laying the foundation for a quantum internet.


🧩 Recent Acquisitions (Strategic Overview)

DateTargetFocusStrategic Impact
2025 (June)Oxford Ionics (UK)Integrated ion-trap chips w/ microwave control (no lasers)Advances scalability, manufacturability
2025 (May)Lightsynq TechnologiesQuantum networking photonicsEnhances interconnectivity & QKD capabilities
2024QubitekkEntanglement and quantum networkingFoundation for quantum internet nodes
2023Entangled NetworksMulti-core quantum processorsImproved parallelism in quantum workloads
2022Creative Destruction Lab spinoutError correction IPProprietary QEC advancements
2022ID Quantique (partial tech rights)Quantum key distribution (QKD)Early secure quantum communications capabilities

Insight: This acquisition cadence clearly signals IonQ’s intent to control multiple layers of the quantum stack: from core hardware to quantum communication infrastructure. Oxford Ionics’ microwave-controlled ion traps could remove a key bottleneck—optical laser alignment—and allow for CMOS-compatible fabrication, bringing quantum into the realm of standard chip manufacturing.


⚙️ Technology Roadmap & Quantum Advantage Trajectory

1. Multiple Modality Advantage

IonQ now supports at least two primary modalities of trapped-ion systems:

  • Laser-controlled ion traps – Current systems (Aria, Harmony)

  • Microwave-controlled chip-based ion traps – Oxford Ionics (future scalability)

This “shots-on-goal” strategy echoes the approach used by Nvidia or Tesla: investing in parallel paths to maximize innovation speed and market resilience.

2. Quantum Internet Positioning

Through Qubitekk and Lightsynq, IonQ is actively building:

  • Quantum repeater & entanglement distribution systems

  • Photonic interconnects that will allow distant quantum processors to communicate securely

  • Foundation for quantum cloud infrastructure (interconnected, distributed quantum processors)

This sets IonQ up as a foundational node operator in a potential future Quantum Internet, a network enabling encrypted communication, distributed computing, and multi-processor coherence.

3. First Commercial Supremacy?

IonQ claims to have achieved 64 algorithmic qubits (AQ) in 2024, with 100+ AQ targeted by 2026.

  • If verified, this positions IonQ ahead of Google and IBM in effective qubit quality (not just raw count).

  • Integration of Oxford’s scalable chip-based systems could lead to the first commercially scalable trapped-ion chip in the market.


📈 Financial & Institutional Overview (Q1 2025)

MetricValue
Cash on Hand~$380M
Quarterly Revenue~$9.2M (YoY up ~28%)
R&D Spend (Q1)~$27M
Total Debt$0 (no long-term debt)
Gross Margin~60%
Burn Rate~$25–30M/quarter

Top Institutional Holders

  • Vanguard Group

  • BlackRock

  • ARK Invest (notably persistent buyer)

  • Goldman Sachs (added post-Oxford deal)


⚔️ Competitive Landscape

CompanyModalityStatusNotes
IonQTrapped ions + networkingPublicStrongest IP + diversified roadmap
QuantinuumTrapped ions (Honeywell)Private (IPO anticipated)Most direct rival, strong funding
PsiQuantumPhotonicPrivatePromising tech, but far from scale
D-WaveAnnealing + gate modelsPublicLess universal, niche focus
RigettiSuperconductingPublicStruggling with coherence issues

Edge: IonQ leads in public transparencystrategic M&A, and quantum networking integration. Quantinuum is arguably better funded, but lacks the acquisition reach seen from IonQ.


🧠 Investment Thesis: Why IonQ May Prevail

  • First-mover advantage: Only pure-play public quantum computing company with major government and enterprise contracts.

  • Vertical integration: Controls hardware, middleware, and is expanding into networking.

  • IP moat: High patent activity (300+ patent families), exclusive partnerships with AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud.

  • Optionality: Exposure to both computing and quantum internet markets.

  • Scalability unlocked: Oxford Ionics provides a true path toward mass manufacturable quantum chips, a potential inflection point.


🚨 Risks to Consider

  • Valuation multiples now elevated, reflecting high investor expectations.

  • Execution risk on integrating diverse acquired technologies.

  • Competitor funding parity—Quantinuum or PsiQuantum could leapfrog with a breakthrough.

  • Technical unknowns in scaling beyond 100 AQ and networking over long distances.


📊 Analyst Outlook & Strategy Recommendations

ScenarioView
12-Month Target$45–60 (bull), $25 (bear)
Buy ZoneAlready re-rated significantly—accumulate on dips <$35 only with high conviction
PositioningHigh-risk, high-upside tech infrastructure stock
Optional StrategyPair with quantum-themed ETFs or complementary AI/cloud infrastructure plays to mitigate volatility (e.g., NVDA, MSFT, SMCI, SNOW)

🧭 Conclusion

IonQ’s acquisition of Oxford Ionics marks a potential turning point in the quantum race—not just for scalable hardware, but also for a fully integrated quantum ecosystem. With a lead in both algorithmic performance and quantum network infrastructure, IonQ may be building not just a computer—but the backbone of a future quantum internet.

Ed Note:

I have been long IONQ for a year now and have been acquiring more shares.

"The money (I believe) is in the waiting"!


Sunday, June 8, 2025

Here are great Dividend paying stocks I am considering in the event of a downturn!


Here is a breakdown of 10 excellent Canadian dividend-paying stocks, ranked by attractiveness for conservative portfolios, with all key metrics included. 

1. Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO

  • Yield/Payout: 3.3–3.7%, Payout ~43–46% 

  • Valuation: P/E ~13.9×; P/B ~2.0× 

  • ROE: Industry standard ~12–14%

  • Sharpe: ~1.1 (5‑yr)

  • Pros: Big‑5 stability, dividend safety, modest valuation, strong risk-adjusted returns

  • Cons: Growth tied to domestic economy; interest sensitivity


2. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO)

  • Yield/Payout: 4.33–4.4%, Payout ~43% Valuation: P/E ~12.7×

  • ROE: ~7.7% TTM (banks average higher) Sharpe: ~1.0

  • Pros: High yield with strong dividend growth (12‑year streak), buyback-friendly

  • Cons: Slightly lower ROE than closest peers


3. Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO)

  • Yield/Payout: ~0.9%, payout ~20–30%

  • Valuation: P/E ~18–20× (rail sector)

  • ROE: ~20%+

  • Sharpe: ~1.0

  • Pros: High efficiency, strong earnings growth, low leverage vs equity

  • Cons: Minimal income component, exposure to cyclical trade volumes


4. Manulife Financial (MFC.TO)

  • Yield/Payout: ~3.8%, ~50–60% payout 

  • Valuation: P/E ~10–12× typical for insurers

  • ROE: Strong fiscal health (leverage ~23.9%) 

  • Sharpe: Very low risk-adjusted returns

  • Pros: A-rated balance sheet, 11-year dividend hikes, Asian growth engine 

  • Cons: Underwhelming stock performance, sensitivity to credit/claims cycles


5. Fortis Inc. (FTS.TO)

  • Yield/Payout: ~3.66–3.7%, payout ~73%

  • Valuation: P/E ~19.6×, P/B ~1.2× typical for utilities

  • ROE: 7.4% 

  • Sharpe: ~0.55–0.66

  • Pros: 51-year dividend increase streak, low volatility, inflation hedge

  • Cons: Slow growth, regulated earnings


6. Pembina Pipeline (PPL.TO)

  • Yield/Payout: ~5.3–5.5%, payout ~90% 

  • Valuation: P/E ~16.8×

  • ROE: ~11.6%

  • Sharpe: ~0.35 (5‑yr), ~0.98 (1‑yr)

  • Pros: Monthly cash flow, pipeline stability, covered dividends

  • Cons: Commodity-linked cash flow; high payout


7. Enbridge (ENB.TO)

  • Yield/Payout: ~5.7%, payout ~140–142% IFF earnings 

  • Valuation: P/E ~23.6×, ROE ~9.4%

  • Sharpe: ~0.8

  • Pros: 30-year dividend growth streak, fee-based contracts, secured backlog

  • Cons: High accounting payout; exposure to regulatory, tariff risk


8. TC Energy (TRP.TO)

  • Yield/Payout: ~4.9–5.1%, payout ~88–97%

  • Valuation: P/E ~16×

  • ROE: ~13% (midstream avg)

  • Sharpe: Moderate risk-adjusted; 1-yr ~1.5, 5-yr ~0.36

  • Pros: Asset expansion in Mexico, utilities diversification

  • Cons: Capital intensity; marginal earnings coverage


9. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO)

  • Yield/Payout: ~5.6–5.9%, payout ~89% 

  • Valuation: P/E ~15.5×

  • ROE: ~7.9%

  • Sharpe: ~0.5

  • Pros: Best yield among Big‑5, international footprint

  • Cons: High payout; lower profitability


10. BCE Inc. (BCE.TO)

  • Yield/Payout: ~11–12%, payout astronomical (~600–900%+)

  • Valuation: P/E ~71× trailing, forward ~10×

  • ROE: ~15.5%

  • Sharpe: Low due to financial leverage

  • Pros: Highest yield, low beta (~0.6)

  • Cons: Unsustainable high payout; reliance on debt, free cash flow issues


How I might use these in my Conservative Portfolio

50% Core (Stability & Yield)

  • RY, TD (15% each): Diversified bank income & safety

  • FTS (10%): Low-growth anchor

  • CP (10%): Blue-chip growth with little volatility

  • MFC (5%): Insurance diversification and balance sheet strength

30% Income Enhancers

  • PPL (10%) & TRP (10%): Monthly/quarterly cash flow with pipeline leverage

  • ENB (10%): Stable, price-consensus income with growth potential

15% Income Booster (Risk Aware)

  • BNS (7.5%): Extra yield balancing banks

  • BCE (7.5%): Ultra high yield play—only in small position, tightly monitored

5% Tactical Cash Reserve

  • Hold as cash or government bonds to hedge volatility or deploy opportunistically


How This Works in a conservative portfolio

  • Yield ~4–5%: Blended yield provides solid income with reliable coverage

  • Diversification: Banks, insurers, utilities, pipelines, rail and telecom reduce correlation risk

  • Valuation discipline: P/E focused on value vs growth; banks/utilities at ~12–20×, pipelines mid-teens

  • Balanced volatility: Core holdings have Sharpe ~1; income enhancers moderate risk, tactical reserve cushions shocks


Ed Note:

Depending on Political considerations going forward, we may consider moving Enbridge up!

Monday, June 2, 2025

How institutional trading algorithms “hunt” predictable retail behavior at scale (Protecting your stops)

 Some pointers for more advanced investors/traders!

Trailing Stops: How They Can Be Exploited (But Not Personally)

ConcernExplanation
Stop-Hunting by AlgosAlgorithms can detect clustered stop zones (e.g., below technical levels or round numbers) and temporarily “sweep” the book to trigger stop-losses before reversing.
Order Book VisibilityYour trailing stop becomes a market order once triggered — it's not visible beforehand but creates predictable liquidity points.
Liquidity GapsIn low-volume names (e.g., junior miners, small caps), trailing stops can be triggered by small trades due to thin order books.
AI-Driven Volatility ExploitsSophisticated HFTs and quant funds model common retail behaviors (including trailing stops) to induce false breakouts or breakdowns.

🧠 But to Be Clear:

  • AI models do not and cannot know your personal trading activity.

  • Brokerage firms, market makers, and hedge funds may see patterns, not individual identities.

  • You're not being “watched” — but you're part of millions of patterns that models analyze.


✅ Best Practices to Use Trailing Stops Wisely

TipWhy It Helps
Use %-based stops on volatile namesAvoid predictable dollar thresholds
Place stops outside obvious zonesNot just under 50DMA or recent lows
Don’t auto-stop everythingUse mental stops or alerts in thinly traded names
Consider option collarsFor hedging instead of stop-triggering in volatile stocks
Use trailing stops on ETFs or liquid namesAlgos are less likely to manipulate high-liquidity instruments

🔐 In Short:

  • You are not personally at risk of AI systems tracking or targeting your trailing stops.

  • But trailing stops in predictable zones can be “swept” by large players’ algorithms — so awareness and smart placement are key.

    TRY A VOLATILITY-ADJUSTED STOP SYSTEM

    This system uses each stock's average true range (ATR) or beta to place smarter stops — not just random 5% or 10% levels that algos can sniff out.


    1. ATR-Based Trailing Stops (Preferred for Volatile Stocks or ETFs)

    StepHow to Do It
    Find ATR (14-day)Use any charting platform (e.g., TradingView, StockCharts, Yahoo)
    Set trailing stop1.5× to 2.5× ATR below recent high or purchase price
    ExampleSMCI ATR = $16 → Stop = $32 to $40 below high
    Adapts to daily volatility. Gives room to breathe, avoids random wicks.

    2. Beta-Weighted Stop Ranges (Good for Portfolio-Level Planning)

    Beta RangeSuggested Stop %Notes
    0.0 – 0.74–6%Lower-risk defensive/utility names
    0.7 – 1.27–10%Average-volatility equities
    1.2 – 2.010–15%Tech, biotech, high-growth
    2.0+15–20%+Ultra-volatiles: AI, biotech, crypto stocks

    Good for position sizing and risk control across different risk buckets.


    📉 3. Technical-Level Stops (Supplemental Logic)

    • Use pivot lows, trendline breaks, or support zones for “technical” backup.

    • Combine with ATR: e.g., “whichever is lower: 2× ATR or break below 20DMA.”


    💼 4. Position-Specific Application Example

    TickerVolatility MeasureSuggested Stop TypeNotes
    NVDAATR = $28, Beta = 1.62× ATR or ~12% trailingLiquid, earnings-sensitive
    NXEATR = $0.55Use fixed % stop: 15%Thin volume; avoid tight stops
    PLTRBeta = 2.0+15–20% mental stop onlyAvoid auto-trigger; fades/whips common
    CCO.TOATR = $1.201.5× ATR (~$1.80 stop)Moderate volatility, good for physical stop

    🚨 5. Do’s and Don’ts

    ✅ Do❌ Don’t
    Use volatility metrics to size stopsPlace arbitrary % stops (e.g., 10%)
    Trail stops only after breakoutUse tight stops in low-volume names
    Use alerts to monitor levelsDepend 100% on automated execution
    Adjust stops weekly (not daily)Chase price with stops intraday

    🧮 BONUS: Excel Formula Template (Pseudo-code)

    If using a spreadsheet:

    = IF(Volatility = "ATR", EntryPrice - (2 * ATR), EntryPrice * (1 - Stop%))

Income and Capital appreciation are the two aims of The Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF (DIVO)

 


The Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF (DIVO) is an actively managed exchange-traded fund designed to provide investors with a combination of current income and capital appreciation. It achieves this through a strategic blend of high-quality, dividend-paying U.S. equities and a tactical covered call options strategy.Amplify ETFs


📌 Fund Overview


💰 Income & Yield

DIVO's income is derived from dividends of its underlying equity holdings and premiums collected from writing covered call options. This combination aims to provide a steady income stream for investors.


📊 Performance Snapshot

These returns reflect DIVO's strategy of balancing income generation with potential for capital growth, making it appealing to investors seeking a blend of both.


🧠 Investment Strategy

DIVO focuses on investing in high-quality, large-cap U.S. companies with a history of dividend and earnings growth. The fund's sub-adviser, Capital Wealth Planning (CWP), employs a tactical covered call strategy, writing call options on individual stocks within the portfolio when market conditions are favorable. This approach aims to enhance income without significantly sacrificing upside potential.Morningstar+2Amplify ETFs+2MarketWatch+2


🏢 Top Holdings (as of May 29, 2025)

CompanyTickerWeight
Invesco Government & Agency PortfolioAGPXX8.04%
Visa Inc.V5.23%
IBMIBM4.99%
CME Group Inc.CME4.98%
The Home Depot, Inc.HD4.93%
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM4.89%
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.GS4.82%
American Express CompanyAXP4.55%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT4.53%
Honeywell International Inc.HON4.41%

These holdings reflect DIVO's emphasis on financially robust companies across various sectors.


🧭 Suitability

DIVO may be suitable for investors seeking:

  • Consistent monthly income

  • Exposure to high-quality, dividend-paying U.S. equities

  • A tactical approach to covered call writing

  • Potential for capital appreciation alongside incomeAmplify ETFs

However, investors should be aware that the fund's use of covered calls can limit upside potential in strongly bullish markets. Additionally, the fund's performance is subject to market risks associated with its equity holdings.

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Here's an aggressive way to enter the Agentic Ai stock race if you're seeking high reward that carries high risk!

 


here's a high-conviction Agentic AI stock watchlist for an aggressive portfolio, including ideal buy ranges, key catalysts, and what to watch for each company. This is geared toward catching breakouts or deep-value setups before broader institutional moves.


🔧 AGENTIC AI CREATORS (BUILDERS)

1. C3.ai (Ticker: AI)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $22 – $28

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • New generative AI enterprise product launches (esp. AI agents for defense/oil & gas)

    • Major U.S. government contract renewals or expansions

  • Why it’s on the list: First-mover advantage in enterprise AI platforms; if execution improves, the upside is enormous.


2. Symbotic (Ticker: SYM)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $33 – $38

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • New mega-retailer partnerships (Amazon, Target, etc.)

    • Expansion into full-agentic warehouse orchestration

  • Why it’s on the list: Already profitable and scaling; its tech uses autonomous decision-making across supply chains.


3. Recursion Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: RXRX)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $5.50 – $7.50

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • New AI-discovered drug candidates entering clinical trials

    • Further expansion of NVIDIA partnership

  • Why it’s on the list: One of the few companies using AI agents to autonomously identify disease-drug interactions.


🚀 AGENTIC AI BENEFICIARIES (ADOPTERS)

4. Tempus AI (Ticker: TEM)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $30 – $36 (as a new IPO, use limit orders around pullbacks)

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • Major hospital system deals

    • Partnerships with genomic leaders (e.g. Illumina, Roche)

  • Why it’s on the list: Early innings of precision medicine + AI agents = potentially massive future upside.


5. Axon Enterprise (Ticker: AXON)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $275 – $295

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • Release of AI-powered real-time monitoring or predictive tools

    • Federal/DoD AI safety tech contracts

  • Why it’s on the list: Dominates public safety; building autonomous surveillance systems in-house.


6. Samsara (Ticker: IOT)

  • Ideal Buy Range: $30 – $34

  • Catalyst to Watch:

    • Launch of AI co-pilots or agents for fleet automation

    • Expansion into non-logistics industries (e.g. construction, food supply)

  • Why it’s on the list: Already uses agentic loops for logistics and safety — sticky B2B model with scale potential.


📋 Summary: Watchlist Snapshot

TickerNameIdeal Buy RangeKey Catalyst
AIC3.ai$22–$28New enterprise AI agents/contracts
SYMSymbotic$33–$38Expansion into new retail/logistics
RXRXRecursion$5.50–$7.50Drug pipeline + Nvidia push
TEMTempus AI$30–$36Genomics/healthcare expansion
AXONAxon$275–$295AI-enabled law enforcement tools
IOTSamsara$30–$34AI co-pilot expansion to new verticals

Ed Note:

We own several of the stocks listed here with the rest on our watch list!