"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

We bought Hyundai Motors today (HYMTF) and here's why we like it!

 


Hyundai Motor Company (KRX:005380 / OTC: HYMTF) is increasingly attractive as an investment, especially if you're seeking exposure to the convergence of robotics, electric vehicles (EVs), and autonomous driving. Here's a breakdown of why Hyundai may be a solid investment right now, based on current dynamics:


Bull Case for Hyundai – July 2025

1. Boston Dynamics Integration = Unique Robotics Edge

  • Hyundai is one of the only global automakers with full control over a top-tier robotics firm.


  • Use of Spot, Stretch, and soon Atlas robots in factories, logistics, and inspection gives Hyundai a first-mover advantage in smart manufacturing.


  • This enhances productivity, reduces downtime, and may accelerate AV system testing (e.g. physical AI, real-time perception).

“Tens of thousands” of robots will be deployed across Hyundai and Kia plants — that's not R&D; that’s operational transformation.


2. Strong EV Momentum

  • Hyundai’s Ioniq lineup is highly rated (Ioniq 5 and 6), competing well with Tesla on quality, design, and price.


  • Major EV production plants in Georgia (U.S.) are ramping up, giving Hyundai a serious foothold in North America.

  • Hyundai’s battery partnerships (SK On, LG Energy) strengthen its supply chain.


3. AV Partnerships & Strategy

  • Motional (joint venture with Aptiv) is testing Level 4 robotaxis in the U.S. using Hyundai EV platforms.

  • Integration of sensor fusion, real-time mapping, and AI navigation systems is being tested now — a strong sign of future readiness in the AV space.


4. Undervalued Compared to U.S. Peers

  • Hyundai trades at much lower valuation multiples than Tesla, GM, or even Ford:

    • P/E ratio often under 8–9x

    • Price-to-book well under 1.0

  • Despite growing global EV sales, its valuation doesn’t yet reflect the robotics + AI upside that Tesla is often credited with.

  • June total sales of hybrid vehicles jumped 3%, resulting in the best June ever for hybrid and total electrified vehicle sales.

    Q2 and First Half Highlights

    Hyundai sold 235,726 units in Q2, for a total sales increase of 10% compared with Q2 2024. Hyundai set total and retail sales records in Q2 for Elantra N, Santa Fe HEV, Tucson PHEV, Tucson HEV and Palisade. Hybrid vehicle sales for the quarter rose 16%.

    Hyundai sold 439,280 total units in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase compared to the first half of 2024 and the best ever first half sales results. First half retail sales rose 5%. Total electrified vehicle sales saw an increase of 20% year-over-year.


5. Dividends & Global Growth

  • Hyundai pays a solid dividend (~2.5%–3% yield, depending on share class and FX).

  • It's expanding aggressively in India, Southeast Asia, and North America, growing both ICE and EV market share.


❌ Risks to Consider

RiskDetails
Geopolitical exposureKorea-based; vulnerable to tensions with North Korea, China, U.S. tariffs
Competitive landscapeFaces Tesla, BYD, VW, and new AV entrants like Apple or Xiaomi
AV timeline uncertaintyNo firm timeline for fully commercial AV products
BD not yet monetizedBoston Dynamics is still a cost center, not a profit engine—yet

๐Ÿ“ˆ Investment Summary

FactorGrade
Robotics edge via BD★★★★☆
AV development (Motional)★★★★☆
EV lineup & sales★★★★☆
Valuation★★★★★
Market momentum★★★☆☆

๐Ÿงญ My Take:

Hyundai is underappreciated by Western investors despite being:

  • A global top 5 EV manufacturer,

  • An early adopter of humanoid and autonomous robotics, and

  • Positioned for long-term gains in AV, factory automation, and battery EV sectors.

If you're building a robotics + EV portfolio, Hyundai is a compelling stock to pair with ETFs like BOTZ, ARKQ, and DRIV.

Full disclosure:

We bought Hyundai today and own BOTZ

ARKQ and DRIV are on our watch list!

Friday, June 27, 2025

We added to our position in Viking Therapeutics last week as the summer of Bio Tech M&A moves forward!

 


Lipid and metabolic disorders are a broad group of conditions that affect how the body processes fats (lipids) and energy. 

Here's a breakdown of the types of diseases in this category and Viking Therapeutics' role in treating them:


๐Ÿงฌ Common Lipid and Metabolic Disorders

These can be genetic or acquired and often overlap with obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease:

1. Lipid Disorders

  • Hypercholesterolemia (high LDL/"bad" cholesterol)

  • Hypertriglyceridemia (high triglyceride levels)

  • Familial hypercholesterolemia

  • Mixed dyslipidemia (elevated LDL + triglycerides, low HDL)

2. Metabolic Disorders

  • Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its more severe form:

    • Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)

  • Type 2 diabetes mellitus

  • Obesity and metabolic syndrome

  • Gaucher disease, Fabry disease, Pompe disease (rare, inherited)

  • Mitochondrial disorders (affecting cellular energy production)


๐Ÿงช Viking Therapeutics' Focus and Lead Assets

Viking is primarily focused on metabolic and endocrine diseases, with particular emphasis on:

1. VK2809 – Lead candidate for NASH and lipid disorders

  • A thyroid hormone receptor beta (TRฮฒ) agonist.

  • Designed to reduce liver fat, improve lipid profiles, and treat NASH.

  • In Phase 2b clinical trials (as of mid-2024) with promising results.

  • Shown significant reductions in liver fat and improvements in LDL/triglycerides.

2. VK2735 – GLP-1 receptor agonist for obesity and metabolic disease

  • Part of the GLP-1 class, like semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy).

  • Targets weight loss and possibly type 2 diabetes.

  • Both injectable and oral formulations are in development.

  • Competing in the high-growth obesity/diabetes market.


๐Ÿ“Š Does Viking Have a Lead?

Viking is not yet a commercial-stage company, but:

  • VK2809 is a strong contender in the NASH race, potentially rivaling Madrigal's resmetirom (Rezdiffra), which got FDA approval in 2024.

  • VK2735 is part of the ultra-competitive GLP-1 weight loss/diabetes market, where Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate.

So while Viking is not a market leader yet, it has:

  • Best-in-class potential in NASH with VK2809.

  • A promising pipeline that could disrupt obesity treatment with VK2735.



As Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) advances its high-potential assets in NASH and obesity, it becomes an increasingly attractive acquisition target, especially in the context of:

  • The massive commercial potential of NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis) and obesity markets

  • Its de-risked clinical programs, with strong Phase 2 data and growing investor interest

  • The patent-protected, next-generation nature of its GLP-1 and thyroid hormone receptor beta (THR-ฮฒ) drug candidates

Here’s a breakdown of potential suitors and why they might be interested:


๐Ÿงฌ Top Potential Acquirers of Viking Therapeutics


๐Ÿ”น 1. Pfizer (PFE)

Why?

  • Pfizer has struggled post-COVID to find new growth drivers.

  • It lacks a strong obesity or NASH program after setbacks like the discontinuation of danuglipron (oral GLP-1) due to side effects.

  • Viking's VK2735 (GLP-1 agonist, injectable and oral) could revive Pfizer's ambitions in metabolic disease.


๐Ÿ”น 2. Eli Lilly (LLY)

Why?

  • Already dominating the obesity/diabetes market with Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Zepbound.

  • A strategic acquisition of Viking could:

    • Lock in next-gen GLP-1 competition.

    • Add a THR-ฮฒ asset (VK2809) to expand into NASH—a logical adjaceny to obesity and T2D.


๐Ÿ”น 3. Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Why?

  • The world leader in GLP-1 therapies (Ozempic, Wegovy).

  • Could acquire Viking to:

    • Defend its dominance against oral GLP-1 competition.

    • Enter the NASH market via VK2809, complementing obesity treatment.


๐Ÿ”น 4. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)

Why?

  • Approved Rezdiffra (resmetirom) for NASH, first of its class.

  • Viking’s VK2809 is a direct TRฮฒ rival with differentiated liver targeting.

  • A defensive or complementary acquisition would eliminate its main clinical-stage competitor.


๐Ÿ”น 5. Roche / Genentech or Merck (MRK)

Why?

  • These Big Pharma players have limited or no current exposure in obesity and NASH.

  • Both are actively seeking pipeline expansion via acquisition.

  • Viking’s pipeline offers a clean, focused portfolio with first-in-class and best-in-class potential.


๐Ÿงช Summary: Why Viking is Attractive

FeatureStrategic Value
VK2809 (THR-ฮฒ)Potentially best-in-class NASH therapy
VK2735 (GLP-1)Oral and injectable forms offer flexibility
Market TailwindsObesity + NASH markets projected to hit $100B+
Clean Cap TableNo legacy liabilities or marketed products to manage
Small CapEasier acquisition (<$7B market cap) vs. peers

When the tech "hits the fan" so to speak, who might bid for Cabaletta Bio and their cutting edge technology?

 


Cabaletta Bio is a compelling acquisition target in a growing niche—cell therapy for autoimmune diseases. Its unique platform, strong early data, and relatively low valuation make it attractive to major players in biotech and pharma, particularly those with an existing CAR-T infrastructure or autoimmune drug pipeline.

CABA is a small but well-capitalized biotech with a pioneering CAR‑T approach for autoimmune diseases, showing promising data. Its next 12–18 months are defining—success in FDA discussions and continued data strength could trigger a meaningful re‑rating or acquisition by larger biotech/pharma. For risk-tolerant investors, it offers speculative upside tied closely to clinical and regulatory catalysts.

Institutional Ownership Overview

Based on recent filings and data summaries:

  • Institutional ownership ranges from ~53–63% of outstanding shares, with ~42–44 million shares held by institutions (13F data: 42.9 M shares; 62.97% per Investing.com) 

  • Approximately 110–234 institutional investors have held CABA over the past 24 months (Fintel: 234 owners; MarketBeat: 110 active over 2 years) 

๐Ÿ“‹ Top Institutional Shareholders (Equity Only, via 13F / Public Disclosures)

  1. Citadel Advisors LLC – disclosed 4.82 million shares (~5.20%) as of June 20, 2025 (13G filing) 

  2. Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC – holds ~2.76 million shares (~5.17%) as of Mar 31, 2025 T. Rowe Price Investment Management – among top holders at ~8.36% (~4.46 M shares) BlackRock, Inc. – owns ~6.47% (~3.45 M shares)

  3. Adage Capital Partners – holds ~5.69% (~3.03 M shares) The Vanguard Group – around ~5.33% (~2.84 M shares) .

  4. Jennison Associates LLC – ~4.56% (~2.43 M shares) 

Other notable asset managers include Commodore CapitalCormorant Asset ManagementMorgan StanleyVenrockSofinnovaRedmilePerceptive Advisors, and Fred Alger among active participants 


Summary Table

Institutional HolderStake %Shares (Approx.)
Citadel Advisors LLC5.20%4.82 M
Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC5.17%2.76 M
T. Rowe Price Investment Mgmt8.36%~4.5 M
BlackRock, Inc.6.47%~3.4 M
Adage Capital Partners5.69%~3.0 M
Vanguard Group5.33%~2.8 M
Jennison Associates4.56%~2.4 M

๐Ÿ“ Key Takeaways

  • Citadel Advisors is the largest disclosed institutional investor with over 5% ownership via 13G.

  • Bain, T. Rowe Price, BlackRock, Adage, Vanguard, and Jennison are major long-only holders.

  • In total, 50+ million shares are under institutional control—a majority of the float.

  • Smaller funds like Sofinnova, Perceptive, Commodore, Cormorant, Fred Alger, Redmile, etc., also have meaningful stakes and active trading.

    Potential Suitors & M&A Landscape

    Big biotech firms with existing autoimmune or cell therapy franchises may find Cabaletta attractive:

    • Roche/Genentech, Bristol‑Myers Squibb, Pfizer, Novartis, Johnson & Johnson, Amgen, Gilead.

    • These players already have CAR-T platforms or autoimmunity portfolios and could accelerate CABA’s path to commercialization via acquisition or a licensing deal following pivotal data or FDA alignment.

    • A successful BLA in myositis could significantly increase attractiveness in M&A.


    ✅ Key Catalysts to Watch

    1. FDA meetings for registrational cohort alignment (mid-to-late-2025).

    2. Data readouts from SLE, SSc, myositis cohorts at upcoming medical meetings.

    3. BLA filing in myositis, expected 2027.

    4. Potential partnerships or M&A following strong clinical/regulatory momentum.


    ๐Ÿงญ Investor Takeaway

    • High-risk, high-reward: CABA remains speculative until regulatory approvals or acquisition materialize.

    • Cash runway good through 2026, but watch future dilution/redemptions.

    • Institutional support strong, but recent sell-offs suggest caution and profit-taking.

    • M&A potential is strong if critical data milestones are met, making it a high-beta biotech micro-cap.

    • Best suited for investors with tolerance for biotech volatility and an eye on upcoming newsflows.


    ๐Ÿ“… Timeline Summary

    EventExpected Timing
    FDA alignment — myositis registrationalMid–2025
    SLE/LN registrational discussionsQ3 2025
    SSc registrational discussionsQ4 2025
    gMG registrational discussions1H 2026
    Myositis BLA submission2027
    Key data updates from RESET trialsThroughout 2025

June 2025 Stock Offering - Institutional buyers in at $2

The June ~12, 2025 underwritten public offering of Cabaletta Bio (ticker: CABA) at a combined unit price of $2.00 ($1.99999 for pre-funded warrants) triggered a Schedule 13G filing when institutional investors surpassed the 5% ownership threshold. 

Here's who made the move:


๐Ÿ“Š Institutional Buyers (via Schedule 13G filed June 20, 2025):

  • Citadel Advisors LLC (and affiliated entities):

    • Common stock held: 4,687,280 shares

    • Beneficial ownership: ~5.0% of outstanding shares

    • Voting/dispositive power: Shared over these shares 

  • Citadel Securities LLC (market-making arm):

    • Common stock held: 131,280 shares

    • Beneficial ownership: ~0.1%

    • Voting/dispositive power: Shared 

  • Kenneth Griffin (CEO & Founder of Citadel):

    • Total beneficial ownership: 4,818,560 shares (~5.2%)

    • This reflects his aggregated share with shared voting/dispositive rights 


Why This Matters

  • The ownership threshold exceeded 5% on June 12, 2025, mandating the 13G disclosure The shared voting structure indicates a passive, non-activist stake—no single entity holds sole control.

  • This move reflects notable institutional backing, enhancing liquidity and signaling confidence in Cabaletta’s capital raise, but does not change Sandy Dahl’s governance control.


TL;DR

  • Citadel Advisors – ≈4.69 M shares (~5.0%)

  • Citadel Securities – ≈0.13 M shares (~0.1%)

  • Kenneth Griffin – ≈4.82 M shares (~5.2%)

All stakes are shared vs. individually controlled, and the disclosure was triggered by crossing the 5% mark post-offering.

Related Articles in 2025:

Autoimmune diseases (MD, Lupus, Mytosis MS and others) are targets for this cutting edge, Bio Tech microcap - CABA! 

Will the New developments from Cabaletto Bio (CABA) make it a takeover target? Stay tuned!


Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Did Desjardin just Release the Kraken? - Kraken Robotics Investment and Business Report (June 2025)

 


Company Overview

Name: Kraken Robotics Inc.
Ticker: TSX-V: PNG | OTCQB: KRKNF
Headquarters: Newfoundland & Labrador, Canada
Sector: Maritime Robotics, Defense, and Subsea Infrastructure
Specialties: Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS), subsea batteries, underwater drones (KATFISH), LiDAR, seabed mapping systems


Desjardins Recent Financing (June 2025)

In June 2025, Kraken completed a major bought-deal financing of CAD 100 million, underwritten by Desjardins Capital Markets. The deal involved issuing 37.6 million shares at CAD 2.66/share, with an over-allotment option for an additional 15% (~5.6M shares).

  • Total Proceeds: Up to CAD 115M gross (with over-allotment)

  • Use of Proceeds:

    • Expansion of subsea battery manufacturing in Nova Scotia

    • Acceleration of SAS and KATFISH production

    • Expansion into global naval and energy markets

    • Integration of recent acquisition (3D at Depth)


Major Contracts and Revenue Streams

1. Defense/Naval Sector (NATO & Allies)

Kraken is well-positioned to benefit from increased global defense spending, especially among NATO allies. Recent developments include:

  • NATO Navies (Europe & North America):

    • Multi-year, multi-nation contracts in pipeline

    • Successful demos of KATFISH and AquaPix SAS with navies in Canada, U.K., and Norway


    • Legacy contract with an Asia-Pacific navy for $9.5M CAD

  • Canadian Department of National Defence:

    • Standing Offer Agreements in place

    • Active participant in Canadian defense modernization

2. Subsea Energy Sector (North America, Europe, Asia)

  • Battery Contracts:

    • Orders exceeding $11M CAD for SeaPower subsea batteries for UUVs and AUVs

    • Strong backlog through 2026; production scaling in Canada

  • Acoustic Corer Projects:

    • $8M CAD contract for seabed imaging in offshore wind farms


    • Targeting North Sea, U.S. East Coast, and East Asia wind development

3. Commercial Survey and Offshore Wind

  • Sub-bottom Imaging Contracts:

    • $3M CAD in contracts signed in Q2 for seabed survey and UXO detection

    • LiDAR and 3D imaging added via acquisition of 3D at Depth (US$17M deal closed in April 2025)


Global Expansion & Opportunities

North America

  • Canada: Anchor client for defense, with ongoing naval trials and procurement

  • United States: Entry point through 3D at Depth acquisition; U.S. Navy and offshore wind developers are key prospects

Europe

  • U.K. Royal Navy: Target client for KATFISH SAS and subsea batteries


  • Germany/Norway/Netherlands: Interest from NATO-aligned agencies and surveyors

Asia-Pacific

  • South Korea & Japan: Offshore energy and maritime security are priority targets

  • Australia: Collaborations under consideration for AUV integration with Kraken’s battery tech


Strategic Acquisitions

3D at Depth (Closed April 2025)

  • Adds underwater LiDAR and 3D imaging capabilities

  • Expands Kraken’s offering into real-time digital twins and high-res asset inspection

  • Strengthens U.S. presence


Financial Outlook (2025–2026)

  • 2025E Revenue: CAD 65–70 million

  • EBITDA Margin: 18–20% projected

  • Cash Position Post-Financing: CAD 190M+ (incl. Q1 cash + new capital)

  • Dilution: ~20% increase in outstanding shares (now ~225–230M)


Valuation Commentary

  • Intrinsic Value Estimate: ~CAD 1.60/share based on conservative DCF

  • Catalyst-Based Upside: Potential to exceed CAD 3.00–3.50 if NATO/naval contracts close and battery backlog accelerates

  • Stock Price (Post-Deal): CAD 2.66 (anchor price)


Investment Thesis

Kraken Robotics presents a compelling small-cap defense and robotics play, with:

  • Direct exposure to rising defense spending and subsea security needs

  • Proprietary technology (SAS, subsea batteries, LiDAR)




  • Strong capital position post-financing

  • Contracts in place and strong pipeline across NATO, energy, and commercial sectors

Risks: Execution of integration, government contract delays, market dilution

Upside: Accelerated backlog conversion, new contracts (NATO/U.S. Navy), energy transition tailwinds


Verdict: Kraken Robotics is well-capitalized, technologically differentiated, and globally relevant—poised to scale into a key supplier in subsea defense, robotics, and energy infrastructure.

ED Note:

Full disclosure: We are long PNG stock!

Our previous article from January 2025

A shadow war is brewing under the worlds oceans. 

Release "The Kraken"!


Update: August 2025

Recent Developments

1. Massive SeaPower™ Battery Orders & Nova Scotia Expansion

  • Kraken secured $34 million in SeaPower battery orders from three clients, including a $31 million order—its largest yet—from a UUV defense provider, plus $3 million from two commercial clients.Kraken Robotics+15Kraken Robotics+15ca.finance.yahoo.com+15

  • The company signed a lease and committed $10 million to establish a 60,000 sq ft battery production facility in Nova Scotia by late 2025. Once operational, capacity could nearly triple—approaching $200 million in annual battery output—and create around 200 advanced manufacturing jobs.Kraken Robotics+2ept.ca+2

Kraken Robotics continues to build strategic momentum—boosting its financial runway, expanding production, winning key orders, and deepening its defense-industry capabilities. It’s clearly accelerating toward becoming a global prime contractor in subsea defense and energy markets.

Ed Note:  Added to PNG position Aug 7th 2025