"Patience is a Super Power" - "The Money is in the waiting"

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

We bought Hyundai Motors today (HYMTF) and here's why we like it!

 


Hyundai Motor Company (KRX:005380 / OTC: HYMTF) is increasingly attractive as an investment, especially if you're seeking exposure to the convergence of robotics, electric vehicles (EVs), and autonomous driving. Here's a breakdown of why Hyundai may be a solid investment right now, based on current dynamics:


Bull Case for Hyundai – July 2025

1. Boston Dynamics Integration = Unique Robotics Edge

  • Hyundai is one of the only global automakers with full control over a top-tier robotics firm.


  • Use of Spot, Stretch, and soon Atlas robots in factories, logistics, and inspection gives Hyundai a first-mover advantage in smart manufacturing.


  • This enhances productivity, reduces downtime, and may accelerate AV system testing (e.g. physical AI, real-time perception).

“Tens of thousands” of robots will be deployed across Hyundai and Kia plants — that's not R&D; that’s operational transformation.


2. Strong EV Momentum

  • Hyundai’s Ioniq lineup is highly rated (Ioniq 5 and 6), competing well with Tesla on quality, design, and price.


  • Major EV production plants in Georgia (U.S.) are ramping up, giving Hyundai a serious foothold in North America.

  • Hyundai’s battery partnerships (SK On, LG Energy) strengthen its supply chain.


3. AV Partnerships & Strategy

  • Motional (joint venture with Aptiv) is testing Level 4 robotaxis in the U.S. using Hyundai EV platforms.

  • Integration of sensor fusion, real-time mapping, and AI navigation systems is being tested now — a strong sign of future readiness in the AV space.


4. Undervalued Compared to U.S. Peers

  • Hyundai trades at much lower valuation multiples than Tesla, GM, or even Ford:

    • P/E ratio often under 8–9x

    • Price-to-book well under 1.0

  • Despite growing global EV sales, its valuation doesn’t yet reflect the robotics + AI upside that Tesla is often credited with.

  • June total sales of hybrid vehicles jumped 3%, resulting in the best June ever for hybrid and total electrified vehicle sales.

    Q2 and First Half Highlights

    Hyundai sold 235,726 units in Q2, for a total sales increase of 10% compared with Q2 2024. Hyundai set total and retail sales records in Q2 for Elantra N, Santa Fe HEV, Tucson PHEV, Tucson HEV and Palisade. Hybrid vehicle sales for the quarter rose 16%.

    Hyundai sold 439,280 total units in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase compared to the first half of 2024 and the best ever first half sales results. First half retail sales rose 5%. Total electrified vehicle sales saw an increase of 20% year-over-year.


5. Dividends & Global Growth

  • Hyundai pays a solid dividend (~2.5%–3% yield, depending on share class and FX).

  • It's expanding aggressively in India, Southeast Asia, and North America, growing both ICE and EV market share.


❌ Risks to Consider

RiskDetails
Geopolitical exposureKorea-based; vulnerable to tensions with North Korea, China, U.S. tariffs
Competitive landscapeFaces Tesla, BYD, VW, and new AV entrants like Apple or Xiaomi
AV timeline uncertaintyNo firm timeline for fully commercial AV products
BD not yet monetizedBoston Dynamics is still a cost center, not a profit engine—yet

๐Ÿ“ˆ Investment Summary

FactorGrade
Robotics edge via BD★★★★☆
AV development (Motional)★★★★☆
EV lineup & sales★★★★☆
Valuation★★★★★
Market momentum★★★☆☆

๐Ÿงญ My Take:

Hyundai is underappreciated by Western investors despite being:

  • A global top 5 EV manufacturer,

  • An early adopter of humanoid and autonomous robotics, and

  • Positioned for long-term gains in AV, factory automation, and battery EV sectors.

If you're building a robotics + EV portfolio, Hyundai is a compelling stock to pair with ETFs like BOTZ, ARKQ, and DRIV.

Full disclosure:

We bought Hyundai today and own BOTZ

ARKQ and DRIV are on our watch list!

Friday, June 27, 2025

We added to our position in Viking Therapeutics last week as the summer of Bio Tech M&A moves forward!

 


Lipid and metabolic disorders are a broad group of conditions that affect how the body processes fats (lipids) and energy. 

Here's a breakdown of the types of diseases in this category and Viking Therapeutics' role in treating them:


๐Ÿงฌ Common Lipid and Metabolic Disorders

These can be genetic or acquired and often overlap with obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease:

1. Lipid Disorders

  • Hypercholesterolemia (high LDL/"bad" cholesterol)

  • Hypertriglyceridemia (high triglyceride levels)

  • Familial hypercholesterolemia

  • Mixed dyslipidemia (elevated LDL + triglycerides, low HDL)

2. Metabolic Disorders

  • Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its more severe form:

    • Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)

  • Type 2 diabetes mellitus

  • Obesity and metabolic syndrome

  • Gaucher disease, Fabry disease, Pompe disease (rare, inherited)

  • Mitochondrial disorders (affecting cellular energy production)


๐Ÿงช Viking Therapeutics' Focus and Lead Assets

Viking is primarily focused on metabolic and endocrine diseases, with particular emphasis on:

1. VK2809 – Lead candidate for NASH and lipid disorders

  • A thyroid hormone receptor beta (TRฮฒ) agonist.

  • Designed to reduce liver fat, improve lipid profiles, and treat NASH.

  • In Phase 2b clinical trials (as of mid-2024) with promising results.

  • Shown significant reductions in liver fat and improvements in LDL/triglycerides.

2. VK2735 – GLP-1 receptor agonist for obesity and metabolic disease

  • Part of the GLP-1 class, like semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy).

  • Targets weight loss and possibly type 2 diabetes.

  • Both injectable and oral formulations are in development.

  • Competing in the high-growth obesity/diabetes market.


๐Ÿ“Š Does Viking Have a Lead?

Viking is not yet a commercial-stage company, but:

  • VK2809 is a strong contender in the NASH race, potentially rivaling Madrigal's resmetirom (Rezdiffra), which got FDA approval in 2024.

  • VK2735 is part of the ultra-competitive GLP-1 weight loss/diabetes market, where Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate.

So while Viking is not a market leader yet, it has:

  • Best-in-class potential in NASH with VK2809.

  • A promising pipeline that could disrupt obesity treatment with VK2735.



As Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) advances its high-potential assets in NASH and obesity, it becomes an increasingly attractive acquisition target, especially in the context of:

  • The massive commercial potential of NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis) and obesity markets

  • Its de-risked clinical programs, with strong Phase 2 data and growing investor interest

  • The patent-protected, next-generation nature of its GLP-1 and thyroid hormone receptor beta (THR-ฮฒ) drug candidates

Here’s a breakdown of potential suitors and why they might be interested:


๐Ÿงฌ Top Potential Acquirers of Viking Therapeutics


๐Ÿ”น 1. Pfizer (PFE)

Why?

  • Pfizer has struggled post-COVID to find new growth drivers.

  • It lacks a strong obesity or NASH program after setbacks like the discontinuation of danuglipron (oral GLP-1) due to side effects.

  • Viking's VK2735 (GLP-1 agonist, injectable and oral) could revive Pfizer's ambitions in metabolic disease.


๐Ÿ”น 2. Eli Lilly (LLY)

Why?

  • Already dominating the obesity/diabetes market with Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Zepbound.

  • A strategic acquisition of Viking could:

    • Lock in next-gen GLP-1 competition.

    • Add a THR-ฮฒ asset (VK2809) to expand into NASH—a logical adjaceny to obesity and T2D.


๐Ÿ”น 3. Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Why?

  • The world leader in GLP-1 therapies (Ozempic, Wegovy).

  • Could acquire Viking to:

    • Defend its dominance against oral GLP-1 competition.

    • Enter the NASH market via VK2809, complementing obesity treatment.


๐Ÿ”น 4. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)

Why?

  • Approved Rezdiffra (resmetirom) for NASH, first of its class.

  • Viking’s VK2809 is a direct TRฮฒ rival with differentiated liver targeting.

  • A defensive or complementary acquisition would eliminate its main clinical-stage competitor.


๐Ÿ”น 5. Roche / Genentech or Merck (MRK)

Why?

  • These Big Pharma players have limited or no current exposure in obesity and NASH.

  • Both are actively seeking pipeline expansion via acquisition.

  • Viking’s pipeline offers a clean, focused portfolio with first-in-class and best-in-class potential.


๐Ÿงช Summary: Why Viking is Attractive

FeatureStrategic Value
VK2809 (THR-ฮฒ)Potentially best-in-class NASH therapy
VK2735 (GLP-1)Oral and injectable forms offer flexibility
Market TailwindsObesity + NASH markets projected to hit $100B+
Clean Cap TableNo legacy liabilities or marketed products to manage
Small CapEasier acquisition (<$7B market cap) vs. peers

When the tech "hits the fan" so to speak, who might bid for Cabaletta Bio and their cutting edge technology?

 


Cabaletta Bio is a compelling acquisition target in a growing niche—cell therapy for autoimmune diseases. Its unique platform, strong early data, and relatively low valuation make it attractive to major players in biotech and pharma, particularly those with an existing CAR-T infrastructure or autoimmune drug pipeline.

CABA is a small but well-capitalized biotech with a pioneering CAR‑T approach for autoimmune diseases, showing promising data. Its next 12–18 months are defining—success in FDA discussions and continued data strength could trigger a meaningful re‑rating or acquisition by larger biotech/pharma. For risk-tolerant investors, it offers speculative upside tied closely to clinical and regulatory catalysts.

Institutional Ownership Overview

Based on recent filings and data summaries:

  • Institutional ownership ranges from ~53–63% of outstanding shares, with ~42–44 million shares held by institutions (13F data: 42.9 M shares; 62.97% per Investing.com) 

  • Approximately 110–234 institutional investors have held CABA over the past 24 months (Fintel: 234 owners; MarketBeat: 110 active over 2 years) 

๐Ÿ“‹ Top Institutional Shareholders (Equity Only, via 13F / Public Disclosures)

  1. Citadel Advisors LLC – disclosed 4.82 million shares (~5.20%) as of June 20, 2025 (13G filing) 

  2. Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC – holds ~2.76 million shares (~5.17%) as of Mar 31, 2025 T. Rowe Price Investment Management – among top holders at ~8.36% (~4.46 M shares) BlackRock, Inc. – owns ~6.47% (~3.45 M shares)

  3. Adage Capital Partners – holds ~5.69% (~3.03 M shares) The Vanguard Group – around ~5.33% (~2.84 M shares) .

  4. Jennison Associates LLC – ~4.56% (~2.43 M shares) 

Other notable asset managers include Commodore CapitalCormorant Asset ManagementMorgan StanleyVenrockSofinnovaRedmilePerceptive Advisors, and Fred Alger among active participants 


Summary Table

Institutional HolderStake %Shares (Approx.)
Citadel Advisors LLC5.20%4.82 M
Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, LLC5.17%2.76 M
T. Rowe Price Investment Mgmt8.36%~4.5 M
BlackRock, Inc.6.47%~3.4 M
Adage Capital Partners5.69%~3.0 M
Vanguard Group5.33%~2.8 M
Jennison Associates4.56%~2.4 M

๐Ÿ“ Key Takeaways

  • Citadel Advisors is the largest disclosed institutional investor with over 5% ownership via 13G.

  • Bain, T. Rowe Price, BlackRock, Adage, Vanguard, and Jennison are major long-only holders.

  • In total, 50+ million shares are under institutional control—a majority of the float.

  • Smaller funds like Sofinnova, Perceptive, Commodore, Cormorant, Fred Alger, Redmile, etc., also have meaningful stakes and active trading.

    Potential Suitors & M&A Landscape

    Big biotech firms with existing autoimmune or cell therapy franchises may find Cabaletta attractive:

    • Roche/Genentech, Bristol‑Myers Squibb, Pfizer, Novartis, Johnson & Johnson, Amgen, Gilead.

    • These players already have CAR-T platforms or autoimmunity portfolios and could accelerate CABA’s path to commercialization via acquisition or a licensing deal following pivotal data or FDA alignment.

    • A successful BLA in myositis could significantly increase attractiveness in M&A.


    ✅ Key Catalysts to Watch

    1. FDA meetings for registrational cohort alignment (mid-to-late-2025).

    2. Data readouts from SLE, SSc, myositis cohorts at upcoming medical meetings.

    3. BLA filing in myositis, expected 2027.

    4. Potential partnerships or M&A following strong clinical/regulatory momentum.


    ๐Ÿงญ Investor Takeaway

    • High-risk, high-reward: CABA remains speculative until regulatory approvals or acquisition materialize.

    • Cash runway good through 2026, but watch future dilution/redemptions.

    • Institutional support strong, but recent sell-offs suggest caution and profit-taking.

    • M&A potential is strong if critical data milestones are met, making it a high-beta biotech micro-cap.

    • Best suited for investors with tolerance for biotech volatility and an eye on upcoming newsflows.


    ๐Ÿ“… Timeline Summary

    EventExpected Timing
    FDA alignment — myositis registrationalMid–2025
    SLE/LN registrational discussionsQ3 2025
    SSc registrational discussionsQ4 2025
    gMG registrational discussions1H 2026
    Myositis BLA submission2027
    Key data updates from RESET trialsThroughout 2025

Related Articles in 2025:

Will the New developments from Cabaletto Bio (CABA) make it a takeover target? Stay tuned!



Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Did Desjardin just Release the Kraken? - Kraken Robotics Investment and Business Report (June 2025)

 


Company Overview

Name: Kraken Robotics Inc.
Ticker: TSX-V: PNG | OTCQB: KRKNF
Headquarters: Newfoundland & Labrador, Canada
Sector: Maritime Robotics, Defense, and Subsea Infrastructure
Specialties: Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS), subsea batteries, underwater drones (KATFISH), LiDAR, seabed mapping systems


Desjardins Recent Financing (June 2025)

In June 2025, Kraken completed a major bought-deal financing of CAD 100 million, underwritten by Desjardins Capital Markets. The deal involved issuing 37.6 million shares at CAD 2.66/share, with an over-allotment option for an additional 15% (~5.6M shares).

  • Total Proceeds: Up to CAD 115M gross (with over-allotment)

  • Use of Proceeds:

    • Expansion of subsea battery manufacturing in Nova Scotia

    • Acceleration of SAS and KATFISH production

    • Expansion into global naval and energy markets

    • Integration of recent acquisition (3D at Depth)


Major Contracts and Revenue Streams

1. Defense/Naval Sector (NATO & Allies)

Kraken is well-positioned to benefit from increased global defense spending, especially among NATO allies. Recent developments include:

  • NATO Navies (Europe & North America):

    • Multi-year, multi-nation contracts in pipeline

    • Successful demos of KATFISH and AquaPix SAS with navies in Canada, U.K., and Norway


    • Legacy contract with an Asia-Pacific navy for $9.5M CAD

  • Canadian Department of National Defence:

    • Standing Offer Agreements in place

    • Active participant in Canadian defense modernization

2. Subsea Energy Sector (North America, Europe, Asia)

  • Battery Contracts:

    • Orders exceeding $11M CAD for SeaPower subsea batteries for UUVs and AUVs

    • Strong backlog through 2026; production scaling in Canada

  • Acoustic Corer Projects:

    • $8M CAD contract for seabed imaging in offshore wind farms


    • Targeting North Sea, U.S. East Coast, and East Asia wind development

3. Commercial Survey and Offshore Wind

  • Sub-bottom Imaging Contracts:

    • $3M CAD in contracts signed in Q2 for seabed survey and UXO detection

    • LiDAR and 3D imaging added via acquisition of 3D at Depth (US$17M deal closed in April 2025)


Global Expansion & Opportunities

North America

  • Canada: Anchor client for defense, with ongoing naval trials and procurement

  • United States: Entry point through 3D at Depth acquisition; U.S. Navy and offshore wind developers are key prospects

Europe

  • U.K. Royal Navy: Target client for KATFISH SAS and subsea batteries


  • Germany/Norway/Netherlands: Interest from NATO-aligned agencies and surveyors

Asia-Pacific

  • South Korea & Japan: Offshore energy and maritime security are priority targets

  • Australia: Collaborations under consideration for AUV integration with Kraken’s battery tech


Strategic Acquisitions

3D at Depth (Closed April 2025)

  • Adds underwater LiDAR and 3D imaging capabilities

  • Expands Kraken’s offering into real-time digital twins and high-res asset inspection

  • Strengthens U.S. presence


Financial Outlook (2025–2026)

  • 2025E Revenue: CAD 65–70 million

  • EBITDA Margin: 18–20% projected

  • Cash Position Post-Financing: CAD 190M+ (incl. Q1 cash + new capital)

  • Dilution: ~20% increase in outstanding shares (now ~225–230M)


Valuation Commentary

  • Intrinsic Value Estimate: ~CAD 1.60/share based on conservative DCF

  • Catalyst-Based Upside: Potential to exceed CAD 3.00–3.50 if NATO/naval contracts close and battery backlog accelerates

  • Stock Price (Post-Deal): CAD 2.66 (anchor price)


Investment Thesis

Kraken Robotics presents a compelling small-cap defense and robotics play, with:

  • Direct exposure to rising defense spending and subsea security needs

  • Proprietary technology (SAS, subsea batteries, LiDAR)




  • Strong capital position post-financing

  • Contracts in place and strong pipeline across NATO, energy, and commercial sectors

Risks: Execution of integration, government contract delays, market dilution

Upside: Accelerated backlog conversion, new contracts (NATO/U.S. Navy), energy transition tailwinds


Verdict: Kraken Robotics is well-capitalized, technologically differentiated, and globally relevant—poised to scale into a key supplier in subsea defense, robotics, and energy infrastructure.

ED Note:

Full disclosure: We are long PNG stock!

Our previous article from January 2025

A shadow war is brewing under the worlds oceans. 

Release "The Kraken"!

Friday, June 20, 2025

We've been collecting these smallcap biotech and healthcare stocks this year! Here's why!

 


Small-Cap Biotech & Healthcare Stocks Poised for Growth

๐Ÿ“ˆ Sector Outlook: Why Biotech + AI = Exponential Growth

Biotech is entering a new era where artificial intelligence (AI), synthetic biology, and precision medicine converge. Key drivers for exponential growth include:

  • AI-driven drug discovery is slashing R&D time and cost (e.g., Recursion, Insilico).

  • Personalized medicine via genomics and CRISPR is expanding.

  • RNA & gene editing breakthroughs are unlocking treatments for previously untreatable diseases.

  • M&A potential is strong as big pharma looks to restock pipelines.

  • Regulatory tailwinds (e.g., accelerated FDA pathways, Orphan Drug incentives).


๐Ÿ”ฌ Company-by-Company Analysis

1. CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

  • Focus: Gene editing, CRISPR-Cas9-based therapies

  • Tech: Co-developed first-ever CRISPR therapy approved (Casgevy for sickle cell)

  • Poised for Growth? ✅ Yes — Revenue from Casgevy + pipeline in diabetes and oncology. Likely M&A target or licensing machine.

2. Editas Medicine (EDIT)

  • Focus: In vivo gene editing (eye diseases, blood disorders)

  • Tech: Proprietary CRISPR platform, EDIT-301 (sickle cell/beta thalassemia)

  • Poised for Growth? ๐Ÿ”„ Moderate — Tech is strong, but lags CRSP in execution. AI-driven targeting tools could boost efficiency.

3. Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

  • Focus: Base editing (next-gen CRISPR)

  • Tech: Allows precise gene correction without cutting DNA. BEAM-302 (alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency)

  • Poised for Growth? ✅ Yes — Highly differentiated platform. Strong IP. Potential to leapfrog CRSP in safety profile.

4. Phathom Pharmaceuticals (PHAT)

  • Focus: GI disorders (acid-related diseases)

  • Tech: Vonoprazan, a novel potassium-competitive acid blocker

  • Poised for Growth? ๐Ÿ”„ Moderate — Already commercialized (Voquezna). Market penetration will determine upside.

5. Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT)

  • Focus: mRNA therapies and vaccines

  • Tech: LUNAR® platform for low-dose, long-acting delivery

  • Poised for Growth? ✅ Yes — RSV, COVID, and rare liver disease vaccines. Undervalued vs. mRNA peers. AI-driven formulation optimization could accelerate pipeline.

6. Cabaletta Bio (CABA)

  • Focus: Autoimmune diseases (e.g., myasthenia gravis)

  • Tech: Chimeric AutoAntibody Receptor (CAAR) T-cells – first of its kind

  • Poised for Growth? ✅ Yes — Positive early trials, huge TAM, and a first-mover in autoimmune cell therapy.

7. Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

  • Focus: In vivo and ex vivo gene editing

  • Tech: In vivo gene editing in humans (NTLA-2001 for ATTR amyloidosis)

  • Poised for Growth? ✅ Yes — First-ever systemic in vivo CRISPR data. Large pipeline. Strategic Regeneron partnership.

8. Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)

  • Focus: AI-first drug discovery

  • Tech: Massive phenomics + deep learning platform

  • Poised for Growth? ✅ Yes — Strong NVIDIA, Bayer, Roche partnerships. 

  • Best positioned for exponential AI compounding effect.

9. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX)

  • Focus: Obesity, NASH, and metabolic disorders

  • Tech: Dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonists, thyroid receptor agonists

  • Poised for Growth? ✅ Yes — Strong data vs. Lilly/ Novo. Potential M&A. 

  • Obesity is a trillion-dollar market.

10. WELL Health Technologies (WELL.TO)

  • Focus: Telehealth, digital healthcare infrastructure

  • Tech: Clinic & EMR consolidation + AI for practice optimization

  • Poised for Growth? ✅ Yes (Canada-specific) — Expanding across North America, strong cash flow, undervalued relative to U.S. digital health plays.

11. Immix Biopharma (IMMX)

  • Focus: Rare cancers and immuno-oncology

  • Tech: TME Normalization technology + Cell therapy (NXC-201)

  • Poised for Growth? ✅ Yes (Speculative) — CAR-T for AL amyloidosis is unique. Watch for FDA designations and trial readouts.


๐Ÿ“Š Summary Table

TickerAreaGrowth PotentialCatalyst/Edge
CRSPGene Editing✅ StrongFirst CRISPR drug, deep pipeline
EDITGene Editing๐Ÿ”„ ModerateSolid tech, trailing execution
BEAMBase Editing✅ StrongPrecise, safer CRISPR 2.0
PHATGI/Acid Disorders๐Ÿ”„ ModerateNovel PPI, already on market
ARCTmRNA✅ StrongUndervalued, strong delivery platform
CABAAutoimmune Cell Tx✅ StrongFirst-mover, unique platform
NTLAIn vivo Gene Editing✅ StrongFirst in vivo CRISPR, strategic alliances
RXRXAI Drug Discovery✅ StrongAI-native, huge data moat
VKTXObesity/Metabolic✅ StrongGLP-1 space challenger
WELL.TODigital Health✅ Strong (CAN)Telehealth + consolidation + AI use
IMMXImmuno-oncology✅ High-risk/rewardNiche CAR-T, unique approach

๐Ÿค– How AI Enhances the Sector

AI is supercharging the biotech cycle in 5 key ways:

  1. Faster drug discovery: Modeling thousands of compounds in silico (e.g., RXRX, Insilico).

  2. Target identification: AI finds patterns in genomics/proteomics faster than humans.

  3. Clinical trial optimization: Patient stratification and predictive analytics.

  4. AI-designed molecules: Using generative AI to create new molecules (see NVIDIA-RXRX).

  5. Operational efficiency: From R&D to supply chain (e.g., WELL.TO automating clinics).


๐Ÿ’ก Conclusion

This portfolio is well-positioned at the intersection of biotech innovation and AI acceleration. Many of your holdings (BEAM, RXRX, CABA, NTLA, VKTX) sit on the edge of potential inflection points. Risk is inherent in small-cap biotech, but the upside is exponential—especially as AI flattens the cost/time curve in drug development and diagnostics.

Here is a custom portfolio weighting recommendation for this biotech and healthcare portfolio, based on a blend of:

  • Near-term catalysts (FDA milestones, partnerships)

  • Long-term technology potential

  • AI integration

  • M&A potential

  • Risk-adjusted return profile


๐Ÿงฌ Portfolio Weighting (Total = 100%)

TickerWeightRationale
VKTX14%Lead obesity drug candidate w/ compelling data. Near-term Phase 3, strong M&A interest. High TAM.
CRSP12%First-to-market CRISPR approval, expanding pipeline, JV with Vertex gives strong floor.
RXRX12%AI-native. Deep partnerships (NVIDIA, Roche). Exponential AI effect likely.
NTLA10%First in vivo gene editing success. ATTR and broader pipeline. Regeneron relationship key.
BEAM10%Next-gen base editing. Safer CRISPR could leapfrog CRSP/NTLA. Platform play.
CABA10%Unique CAAR-T for autoimmunity. Early positive signals. First-mover with high optionality.
ARCT8%Undervalued vs. peers. Solid RNA delivery. Good mRNA pipeline outside COVID.
WELL.TO8%Cash-generating digital health consolidator. AI use growing in clinics. Canada-focused hedge.
IMMX6%High risk/reward CAR-T play in amyloidosis. FDA designations would be a catalyst.
EDIT5%Still early, lagging CRSP/NTLA. Execution risk, but novel platform. Optionality remains.
PHAT5%Revenue-generating now. Acid drug space not exponential, but cash flow can support R&D.

๐Ÿ“Š Allocation Summary

  • High conviction (36%): VKTX, RXRX, CRSP

  • Platform/Tech optionality (30%): NTLA, BEAM, CABA

  • Mid-risk, undervalued (24%): ARCT, WELL.TO, IMMX

  • Lower conviction/slow execution (10%): EDIT, PHAT


๐Ÿ”„ Suggested Strategy

  • Rebalance quarterly based on trial results and FDA news.

  • Use trailing stops on IMMX/EDIT to manage downside.

  • Double-down on RXRX/VKTX if large-cap pharma partnerships or M&A rumors intensify.

  • Takeover Target Rankings (Highest Likelihood First)

    1. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX)

    • Why? Lead obesity drug (GLP-1/GIP agonist) shows best-in-class potential vs. Lilly/Novo.

    • Who might buy?

      • Pfizer – Failed in GLP-1; needs a strong obesity entry.

      • Amgen – Also pivoting to obesity; could bolt on VKTX.

      • GSK – Lacks obesity/metabolic pipeline, looking to catch up.


    2. Cabaletta Bio (CABA)

    • Why? Unique CAAR-T cell therapy for autoimmune diseases. First mover. Fits immunology + cell therapy goals.

    • Who might buy?

      • Johnson & Johnson – Strong in immunology, buying into cell therapy.

      • Roche – Building autoimmune pipeline via Genentech.

      • Bristol Myers Squibb – Needs pipeline renewal, big cell therapy presence.


    3. Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

    • Why? Proprietary base editing platform. Safer gene editing = attractive platform licensing or acquisition.

    • Who might buy?

      • Pfizer – Strong interest in next-gen gene editing.

      • Novartis – Genomic medicine investment fits BEAM tech.

      • Vertex – Deep in CRISPR, may hedge against dependence on CRSP.


    4. Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

    • Why? First to show systemic in vivo CRISPR edits. Regeneron partnership is a natural acquisition bridge.

    • Who might buy?

      • Regeneron – Already invested and partnered; would consolidate pipeline.

      • Sanofi – Gene therapy interest, looking to strengthen rare disease footprint.

      • Biogen – Rebuilding pipeline, interested in neuro/rare disease applications.


    5. Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)

    • Why? AI-native platform + massive phenomics database. Attractive for big pharma needing AI capability.

    • Who might buy?

      • Roche – Existing multi-program partnership.

      • Bayer – Deep AI collaboration; possible acquirer if results mature.

      • Merck – Lagging in AI drug discovery, could accelerate with RXRX’s tech.


    6. Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT)

    • Why? mRNA delivery platform with long-acting advantage. LUNAR tech + RSV program is attractive.

    • Who might buy?

      • Sanofi – Recently bought mRNA players; interested in vaccines.

      • GSK – Focused on respiratory + mRNA.

      • Moderna – Could consolidate rival tech.


    7. CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

    • Why? Already partnered with Vertex on Casgevy. Revenue coming in, but less likely to be bought due to high market cap.

    • Who might buy?

      • Vertex – Possible full acquisition to internalize CRISPR platform.

      • Pfizer – May bid if it wants deeper entry into gene editing.


    8. Immix Biopharma (IMMX)

    • Why? Niche CAR-T for amyloidosis + solid tumor microenvironment platform. High risk/reward.

    • Who might buy?

      • Bristol Myers Squibb – Deep CAR-T presence.

      • Legend Biotech – Could bolt on if data matures.

      • Takeda – Active in rare cancers and blood disorders.


    9. Editas Medicine (EDIT)

    • Why? Unique CRISPR IP, but lags in execution. May be picked up for tech/IP rather than pipeline.

    • Who might buy?

      • Editas’ own licensors (e.g., Broad/Harvard groups) could push for a sale.

      • Novartis – Possible platform bolter.

      • Smaller biotech consolidators (e.g., Beam or Arbor) could scoop the IP.


    10. Phathom Pharmaceuticals (PHAT)

    • Why? Already commercial, but niche acid blocker market. More of a bolt-on than a strategic buy.

    • Who might buy?

      • Takeda – Long history in GI disorders.

      • AbbVie – GI presence via Humira replacement efforts.


    11. WELL Health Technologies (WELL.TO)

    • Why? Telehealth/EMR company with cash flow but mostly Canadian. Acquisition unlikely by global pharma.

    • Who might buy?

      • Telus Health, Shopify Health, or U.S. PE firms rather than big pharma.


    ๐Ÿงฌ Summary: Most Likely Pharma Suitors

    TargetBig Pharma Suitor(s)Rationale
    VKTXPfizer, Amgen, GSKObesity war heating up
    CABAJ&J, BMS, RocheAutoimmune + cell therapy convergence
    BEAMPfizer, Novartis, VertexPlatform potential, CRISPR 2.0
    NTLARegeneron, SanofiATTR and systemic gene editing
    RXRXRoche, Bayer, MerckAI-native platform, partnerships
    ARCTSanofi, GSK, ModernaLong-acting mRNA delivery
    CRSPVertex, PfizerDeep CRISPR pipeline, existing ties
    IMMXBMS, Takeda, LegendNiche oncology, CAR-T play
    EDITNovartis, IP playersIP/license value
    PHATTakeda, AbbVieGI pipeline bolt-on
    WELL.TOTelus, PE firms