Showing posts with label electrification. Show all posts

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Lithium is the new oil AND, Smackover is America's new wellhead!

⚡ Investment Report: Smackover Lithium Project

Joint Venture between Standard Lithium Ltd. (NYSE: SLI / TSX-V: SLI) and Equinor ASA (NYSE: EQNR)

🧭 Executive Summary

As America and China continue to lock horns over critical minerals and strategic materials, smaller North American players — Standard Lithium (SLI), Critical Metals Corp (CRML), Ucore Rare Metals (UCU), MP Materials (MP), and Avalon Advanced Materials (AVL) — are poised to thrive. These companies control valuable deposits of lithium, rare earths, and other critical minerals that underpin the global energy transition.

Among them, the Smackover Lithium Project stands out as one of the most strategically positioned and technically advanced lithium ventures in North America. With Standard Lithium as operator and Equinor ASA as a 45% partner, this project is well‑funded, technologically mature, and fully aligned with U.S. energy independence and clean‑tech industrial policy goals.

🌍 Geological & Strategic Context

🔹 The Smackover Formation

A geological giant stretching across the Gulf Coast Basin, running through southern Arkansas and eastern Texas.
Formed by porous carbonate rock layers that host brine rich in lithium and other dissolved minerals.
Already home to a mature industrial brine extraction ecosystem, historically focused on bromine production — creating ideal infrastructure for lithium development.

🔹 Project Zones

Southwest Arkansas (SWA) Project: Core area of lithium concentration with average 437 mg/L lithium; planned capacity of 30,000 tonnes/year battery‑grade LiOH.
East Texas Project: Expanding zone where brine samples have shown up to 806 mg/L lithium concentrations.
Both project areas are contiguous within the subsurface Smackover geological system, forming a unified development corridor.

⚙️ Technology & Operations

Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE)

Proprietary process developed by Standard Lithium; continuously operated pilot plant in El Dorado, AR since 2020.
>99% lithium recovery demonstrated, with minimal land and water use compared to evaporation ponds.
Produces high‑purity lithium hydroxide suitable for EV batteries.
Significantly shorter production cycles and lower carbon footprint.

🤝 Joint Venture Structure — "Smackover Lithium"

Partner	Role	Ownership
Standard Lithium (SLI)	Project operator, technology owner	55%
Equinor ASA (EQNR)	Strategic investor, subsurface & capital partner	45%

Equinor committed:
- $30M upfront payment
- $60M development work program
- Up to $70M in milestone-based performance payments
DOE Grant: $225M awarded (January 2025) for Phase 1 SWA construction.
Operating JV name: Smackover Lithium — a separate entity governed jointly, designed to scale projects across the Smackover Basin.

💰 Financial and Partner Strength

Standard Lithium Ltd. (SLI)

Cash reserves: $31.2M (Dec 2024)
Debt: None
100% operator of Smackover Lithium JV assets
Positioned as one of the few pure‑play U.S. lithium developers

Equinor ASA (EQNR)

Market Cap: ~$90B
P/E: 7.8×
P/S (TTM): 0.6
P/CF (TTM): 3.6×
Operating Margin: 28.4%
Dividend Yield: 8.4%
Strategic energy supermajor from Norway with deep pockets and global project execution capacity.
Expanding beyond hydrocarbons into low‑carbon, critical‑minerals, and hydrogen sectors.

“Energy – Europe – America – Equinor ASA. P/E 7.8x, Dividend 8.4% — Nuff Said.”

🧱 Development Roadmap

Milestone	Timeline	Status
JV Formation with Equinor	Q1 2025	✅ Completed
DOE $225M Grant Secured	Q1 2025	✅ Completed
FEED & Engineering Studies	Q2–Q3 2025	🔄 In Progress
Construction Start (SWA Phase 1)	Late 2025 – Early 2026	🔜 Planned
East Texas Resource Expansion	2025–2026	🔄 Active
Commercial Production Launch	2027 (est.)	🕒 Target

📈 Investment Thesis

Strategic Resource Control: SLI and Equinor control one of North America’s richest lithium brine systems.
Government Support: DOE grant validates technical and geopolitical importance.
Technology Edge: Proven DLE technology de‑risks extraction and accelerates scalability.
Institutional Partner: Equinor’s financial strength ensures long‑term project execution.
Critical Mineral Supercycle: Geopolitical friction between the U.S. and China will continue to amplify the value of domestic lithium production.

We are long both SLI and EQNR. The combination of technology, capital, and national priority creates a unique, asymmetric upside in the North American lithium sector.

⚠️ Risks & Mitigations

Risk	Impact	Mitigation
DLE Scale-Up Risk	Technical challenge in commercial scaling	Multi‑year pilot proven, DOE oversight ensures compliance
Permitting/Regulatory	Potential local or state delays	Favorable Arkansas regulatory climate; existing brine infrastructure
Lithium Price Volatility	Market-driven revenue swings	U.S. IRA incentives, potential offtake contracts, DOE-supported floor pricing
CapEx Inflation	Rising material costs	Equinor funding cushions; DOE grant offsets 20–30% of initial capex

🌎 Macro Context: The Critical Mineral Rivalry

The U.S.–China rivalry over energy transition materials has escalated into a strategic resource race. Lithium, nickel, and rare earths have emerged as the new oil — essential to EVs, grid storage, and defense applications.

Small-cap developers like SLI, CRML, UCU, MP, and AVL occupy a unique sweet spot:

They own the feedstock of the next industrial era.
They are becoming acquisition targets for major energy and materials firms (e.g., Equinor, ExxonMobil, Rio Tinto).
They provide investors with exposure to critical mineral leverage without megacap dilution.

🧩 Conclusion

The Smackover Lithium Project is more than a single asset — it is a strategic partnership between innovation (SLI) and institutional power (Equinor), underpinned by U.S. government backing.

With world-class geology, proven technology, strong partners, and policy tailwinds, Smackover Lithium is positioned to become a cornerstone of America’s clean energy supply chain.

→ In short:

Lithium is the new oil. Smackover is America’s wellhead.

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Who might be interested in Acquiring Chargepoint's EV charging network?

Feb 11th 2025

We have been "Stopped out" of Chargepoint shares.

O U C H !!! Sometimes speculation can hurt! (even if it's just 1% of your portfolio)

However, the article remains to see what happens. CHPT moved to our watch list for now!

This articles is speculative as, there’s no concrete evidence or official announcement that ChargePoint is on the block or that any particular company has definitive plans to buy them.

With that said, here’s how one might reason about who could be most interested and best positioned to acquire ChargePoint:

1. BP

Why BP?
- BP has already made several moves in EV charging—e.g., acquiring Chargemaster (now BP Pulse) in the U.K. and AMPLY Power in the U.S.
- They have a strategic objective to diversify into lower-carbon businesses.
- Synergies: BP can integrate ChargePoint’s network and technology with its vast global fuel retail footprint, particularly in North America where ChargePoint is strong.
Why It Makes Sense
- Instant Scale: ChargePoint’s extensive network would give BP an immediate, top-tier presence in the U.S. EV charging market.
- Shareholder Pressure: As BP transitions to an “integrated energy company,” a big EV charging acquisition is a visible commitment to that strategy.

2. Shell

Why Shell?
- Shell has been aggressive in the clean energy and EV charging space, acquiring companies like Greenlots in the U.S. and Ubitricity in Europe.
- Shell’s gas station network and convenience retail model could seamlessly add another major EV charging brand to its portfolio.
Why It Makes Sense
- Global Reach: Shell operates in nearly every corner of the globe, so acquiring ChargePoint would bolster Shell’s expansion of EV charging stations in North America—and potentially integrate ChargePoint hardware/software in other regions.
- Proven Track Record: Shell has demonstrated it’s willing to buy established charging companies rather than build from scratch.

3. Chevron

Why Chevron?
- Chevron is somewhat late to the EV charging race compared to BP and Shell. It made smaller-scale moves (e.g., partnering with EVgo), but not a blockbuster acquisition yet.
- If Chevron wants to catch up fast, ChargePoint—with hardware, software, and thousands of locations—would be a big leap forward.
Why It Makes Sense
- Competitive Response: With BP and Shell scaling in EV charging, Chevron might not want to be left behind in the future fueling landscape.
- U.S. Focus: ChargePoint’s largest market is the U.S., which aligns well with Chevron’s strong North American presence.

4. TotalEnergies

Why TotalEnergies?
- TotalEnergies (formerly Total) is actively investing in renewables and EV charging across Europe. They’ve acquired several smaller charging players and are building out networks in France and beyond.
- They could see ChargePoint as a chance to expand rapidly in North America—an area they’re not as strong in yet compared to Europe.
Why It Makes Sense
- Diversification: TotalEnergies is rebranding itself as a broad-based energy company. Picking up a major EV charging firm like ChargePoint would bolster that identity.
- Technology & Software: ChargePoint’s robust cloud-based software platform could be integrated globally with TotalEnergies’ existing networks.

5. Large Utilities or Conglomerates

Potential Players: NextEra Energy, Iberdrola, Engie, E.ON, or even Berkshire Hathaway (through its energy subsidiary).
Why a Utility?
- Utilities have a natural link to EV charging—electricity supply is their core business, and installing chargers helps grow their load and services.
Why It Makes Sense
- Grid Integration Expertise: Utilities already manage power distribution, so owning a charging network offers potential vertical integration.
- Regulatory & Infrastructure Experience: Utilities are used to capital-intensive projects and have relationships with regulators, helping to streamline infrastructure deployment.

6. An Automotive or Tech Giant

Potential Players: GM, Ford, or even Amazon.
Note: Chargepoint recently partnered with GM to extend their EV charging network)
Why an OEM or Tech Firm?
- GM and Ford (and other automakers) have partnered with third-party charging networks but haven’t outright purchased one of the largest networks.
- Amazon might be interested in EV charging for its delivery fleet and consumer ecosystem.
Why It Makes Sense
- Vertical Integration: Automakers are increasingly looking to control more of the EV value chain—battery supply, software, and charging infrastructure.
- Ecosystem Play: A tech giant could bundle EV charging with other services (e.g., Amazon’s logistics and retail ecosystem).

The “Best Positioned” Takeaway

BP and Shell arguably have the most well-defined strategies and track records in the EV charging space among oil majors, making them the likeliest candidates if a deal were ever to materialize.
Chevron or TotalEnergies might be a close second if they decide to leapfrog organically building a U.S. network.
Utilities or Tech Giants could be surprise acquirers, but they’d have to justify an acquisition of ChargePoint’s scale and align it with their core business models.

In the end, any prospective buyer would be looking for:

Immediate Scale and Network: ChargePoint is one of the largest EV charging networks, particularly in North America.
Brand and Technology: ChargePoint’s software, hardware, and partnerships (with businesses, municipalities, and fleets) would save an acquirer years of development time.
Strategic Fit: Whether it’s an oil major pivoting to renewables, a utility expanding its electric footprint, or an OEM/tech giant securing charging for its customers, each potential acquirer must see a clear path to synergy and long-term ROI.

Again, all of this is speculative—but from a strategic standpoint, BP or Shell are commonly viewed as the most logical suitors if (and it’s a big “if”) ChargePoint were ever up for sale.

ED Note: Full Disclosure

We have been accumulating CHPT shares!

Sunday, June 30, 2024

ChargePoint stands to significantly benefit from the U.S. government's new infrastructure bill, which allocates substantial funding for expanding electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure

ChargePoint Holdings, a leading provider of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure, appears to have strong growth potential in the next 2-3 years, driven by several factors:

Increasing Demand for EV Charging: The growing adoption of electric vehicles is significantly driving the need for more charging infrastructure. In 2023, ChargePoint reported a 53% increase in annual charging sessions, with the amount of energy dispensed increasing by 70% year-over-year. This trend is expected to continue as more EVs hit the road, necessitating expanded charging networks (ChargePoint).
Revenue Growth Projections: Analysts predict substantial revenue growth for ChargePoint. For instance, the company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from $530 million in 2024 to $672 million in 2025, representing a 26.86% increase. This growth trajectory is supported by the increasing deployment of charging stations and rising EV sales (Stock Analysis) (Simply Wall St).
Positive Analyst Ratings: The majority of analysts have a "Buy" rating for ChargePoint's stock, with an average price target suggesting significant upside potential from its current price. The average 12-month price target of $4.48 implies a potential increase of nearly 200% (Stock Analysis).
Strategic Positioning and Government Support: ChargePoint is well-positioned to benefit from government initiatives aimed at boosting EV adoption and expanding charging infrastructure. This includes potential subsidies and grants which can enhance its market position and financial performance (ChargePoint).

Despite these positive indicators, it's important to note some challenges, including competitive pressures and the need for ongoing substantial investments to scale infrastructure. However, the overall outlook for ChargePoint in the next few years appears promising given the rapid expansion of the EV market and the company’s strategic initiatives to capture this growth.

ChargePoint stands to significantly benefit from the U.S. government's new infrastructure bill, which allocates substantial funding for expanding electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. Here are some key ways ChargePoint will gain:

Funding from the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Program: The NEVI program, part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, allocates $7.5 billion for EV charging projects, including $5 billion for nationwide funding and $2.5 billion for corridor and community charging grants. This funding will support the installation of EV chargers, covering up to 80% of project costs for infrastructure along alternative fuel corridors and in communities, which directly benefits ChargePoint's expansion efforts (Federal Highway Administration) (ChargePoint).
Increased Deployment of Charging Stations: The Biden-Harris administration aims to build a national network of 500,000 EV chargers by 2030. This initiative will create numerous opportunities for ChargePoint to install more charging stations, particularly in underserved and high-demand areas, thereby increasing their market penetration and revenue potential (Federal Highway Administration) (The White House).
Support for Disadvantaged Communities: A significant portion of the funding is targeted towards projects in disadvantaged and rural communities. ChargePoint's involvement in these projects aligns with the government’s Justice40 Initiative, which aims to ensure that 40% of the benefits from federal investments flow to these communities. This can enhance ChargePoint's presence in diverse locations and promote equitable access to EV charging (Federal Highway Administration).
Partnerships and Collaborations: The bill also facilitates collaborations between ChargePoint and other entities. For example, ChargePoint's partnerships with Volvo Cars, Starbucks, and Mercedes-Benz to deploy charging hubs will be bolstered by the available federal funds, accelerating the buildout of their charging network (The White House).
Job Creation and Economic Impact: The infrastructure bill promotes American job creation through the construction and maintenance of EV charging stations. This will not only support ChargePoint’s growth but also contribute to the broader economic impact by creating jobs in manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of EV infrastructure (The White House).

Overall, the infrastructure bill provides a robust financial and regulatory framework that will support ChargePoint's strategic expansion and operational growth in the coming years.

Enovix ($ENVX on Nasdaq) has developed a unique new Li battery that will enhance safety, longevity and higher energy levels

Sunday, June 9, 2024

King copper is becoming king again as EVs, Robots, energy storage and other high tech projects make copper a "must have" resource!

Here are the top publicly traded copper-producing companies worldwide

based on their copper production in 2023

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX): Freeport-McMoRan is the most productive copper mining company globally, recording 2,058,910.28 metric tons (MT) of copper output in 2023. Notably, it operates the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the second-largest copper mine globally and one of the world’s largest gold mines.

BHP (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP, LSE: BHP): BHP produced 1,389,022 MT of copper in 2023. The majority of its copper comes from mines in Chile (Escondida and Spence), Peru, and Australia. Escondida is the world’s largest copper mine and a significant contributor to Chile’s economy.

Codelco: Although not publicly traded, Codelco is a state-owned Chilean company and the world’s largest copper producer. It operates several major mines, including Chuquicamata, El Teniente, and Radomiro Tomic.

Anglo American (LSE: AAL, OTCQX: AAUKF): Anglo American is another significant copper producer with operations in Chile and other countries. Its Los Bronces mine in Chile contributes to its copper production.

Glencore (LSE: GLEN, OTC Pink: GLCNF): Glencore is a diversified mining company with copper assets worldwide. While it produces other commodities, its copper operations play a crucial role in its portfolio.

Copper demand is rising due to electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and electrification, making these companies essential players in the global copper market

In light of the burgeoning growth projections for Robotics, EVs and Energy Storage among other industries, Copper stocks look very promising, and two of them are poised to benefit significantly!

How to invest in Robots and Robotics going forward, through the back door method!

Robots and EVs will require many, advanced batteries Enovix ($ENVX on Nasdaq) has developed a unique new Li battery that will enhance safety, longevity and higher energy levels