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Showing posts with label upside. Show all posts
Showing posts with label upside. Show all posts

Friday, July 11, 2025

We now own four Cryptos, BTC, ETH SOL and GRT, and have placed some others on our watch list!

 


Investment/Business Report: Crypto Markets Outlook (2025)

🧭 Executive Summary

The crypto market is transitioning into a new phase characterized by real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, institutional adoption, and scalable infrastructure for decentralized applications. This evolution marks a shift from speculative narratives toward utility-driven and enterprise-aligned use cases. The “Tokenization of Everything” thesis — where physical, financial, and intellectual assets are digitized on-chain — is emerging as the dominant macro-theme for the next cycle.

This report presents 10 crypto assets best positioned to benefit from these dynamics, balancing growth potential, infrastructure importance, and institutional traction.


🌍 Macro Market Drivers

  • Tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA): Projected to become a $16 trillion market by 2030 (Boston Consulting Group).

  • Institutional Participation: BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, JPMorgan, Visa, and others are actively piloting blockchain-based products.

  • Layer-1 Evolution: Faster, cheaper, and modular chains are competing with Ethereum, driving innovation.

  • AI & Blockchain Integration: Projects like NEAR and The Graph are working on decentralized infrastructure for AI data and logic.

  • Regulatory Trends: U.S., Europe, and Asia are moving toward regulated digital asset frameworks, unlocking institutional engagement.


🔝 Top 10 Crypto Assets (2025 Outlook)

1. Ethereum (ETH)



  • Role: Smart contract layer for DeFi, NFTs, RWA tokenization

  • Key Use Case: Tokenization platforms (e.g. BlackRock’s BUIDL), CBDCs, Layer-2 ecosystems (Arbitrum, Optimism)

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • BlackRock, Fidelity, JPMorgan Onyx, Franklin Templeton

  • Why Invest: Still the dominant L1 with the broadest developer, DeFi, and institutional base. EIP-4844 brings major scalability improvements.


2. Chainlink (LINK)

  • Role: Oracle and interoperability layer for smart contracts

  • Key Use Case: Pricing tokenized RWAs, data feeds, Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP)

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • Partners with Swift, DTCC, ANZ Bank, BNP Paribas, Google Cloud

  • Why Invest: Core infrastructure for tokenized finance. LINK’s staking and new product launches (e.g. Transporter) are boosting adoption.


3. Solana (SOL)

  • Role: High-speed, low-fee smart contract blockchain

  • Key Use Case: Consumer apps, DePIN, DeFi, NFTs

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • Visa, Shopify, Circle, Jump Trading

  • Why Invest: Fast, cost-effective chain gaining real-world usage. Breakpoint 2024 events show surging dev and corporate interest.


4. Avalanche (AVAX)

  • Role: L1 platform with customizable subnets

  • Key Use Case: Institutional tokenization, gaming, DeFi

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • JPMorgan (Onyx), Citi, IntainMARKETS, Deloitte

  • Why Invest: Subnets allow tailored, regulated environments ideal for tokenized financial products and corporate use.


5. NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • Role: Chain abstraction and AI-friendly L1

  • Key Use Case: Modular blockchains, decentralized frontends, AI logic hosting

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • Working with EigenLayer, Polygon, Celestia, indirect support via ecosystem VCs

  • Why Invest: Positioned as the OS layer for web3/AI/tokenized applications. Strong dev experience and modular design.


6. Filecoin (FIL)

  • Role: Decentralized storage and compute

  • Key Use Case: RWA metadata, NFT files, enterprise data hosting

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • IBM Filecoin integration, Lockheed Martin research into decentralized comms

  • Why Invest: ToE depends on decentralized storage. FIL is rapidly expanding into compute and retrieval markets.


7. The Graph (GRT)

  • Role: Indexing and querying protocol for blockchain data

  • Key Use Case: Making smart contract and token data searchable and usable

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • Coinbase Ventures, Multicoin Capital, Digital Currency Group

  • Why Invest: Like Google Search for web3. A vital layer for data-driven applications, especially as tokenized systems scale.


8. Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Role: Store of value and collateral layer

  • Key Use Case: Institutional ETFs, RWA tokenization on L2s (e.g., Runes, Stacks)

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK Invest, Grayscale

  • Why Invest: Widespread legitimacy. Tokenized BTC increasingly used as base liquidity in DeFi/RWA applications.


9. Uniswap (UNI)

  • Role: Decentralized exchange protocol

  • Key Use Case: Trading tokenized assets, governance

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • a16z, Paradigm, Pantera Capital

  • Why Invest: Liquidity for tokenized assets will route through DEXs. UNI’s upcoming “fee switch” may unlock revenue sharing.


10. Polkadot (DOT)

  • Role: Modular L1 ecosystem via parachains

  • Key Use Case: Nation-state or enterprise-grade modular chains

  • Institutional Involvement:

    • Web3 Foundation partners, Blockchain Capital, KR1

  • Why Invest: New Agile Coretime system allows flexible, scalable chain use. Relevant for custom asset environments.


📈 Market Summary Outlook

MetricStatus (2025 Proj.)
Institutional Capital InflowRising (led by ETFs, RWAs)
Tokenized Asset DemandAccelerating
Infrastructure MaturityAdvancing rapidly
Retail ParticipationRecovering
RegulationIncreasingly defined in US/EU

🧠 Strategic Takeaway

Investors who want exposure to the future of finance, asset tokenization, and decentralized data layers should favor infrastructure-heavy, enterprise-aligned coins. The top 10 highlighted projects are positioned not only for next-cycle growth but for long-term relevance in a world where everything from stocks, property, AI models, and identity may live on-chain.

ED Note:

For our investment in Solana, we bought shares of what we believe is the "only" Solana ETF available in North America, trading on the TSX as $ - EVOLVE SOLANA ETF C$UNHDG 

I even put some shares in my personal TFSA as I believe Solana is a true dark horse in the race and I expect a good performance, especially since there will be "No management fee" until 2026

Thursday, July 10, 2025

Why Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Cabaletta Bio (CABA)

 



Ed Note: I like to point out sometimes that, some penny stocks should not be overlooked. A prime example of that is our buy in 2 years ago of QBTS at .41c (today trading at $16)  Albeit, Bio Tech is not as dynamic as Quantum tech, I believe that CABA may be in the sites of some of the big dogs in the space for it's cutting edge technology currently on the verge of proving itself!
Onward...

Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Cabaletta Bio (CABA) for several compelling reasons:


1. Stellar Clinical Data from RESET Trial

  • Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted new data showcased at EULAR Barcelona, reporting that 87% of patients (13/15) with ≥3 months follow-up discontinued background therapy, with only mild (Grade 1) cytokine release syndrome—deemed “stellar” efficacy 

  • William Blair (Sami Corwin) and Guggenheim (Yatin Suneja) have reiterated or raised “Buy” ratings based on these clinically meaningful outcomes 

2. Significant Upside in Price Targets

  • The average 12‑month analyst target is around $14.43–$16.21, implying a potential upside of 744–848% from the current ~$1.70 level 

  • The range of targets spans from as low as $3 to as high as $25–$28, reflecting both optimism and varying risk perspectives 

3. Strong Analyst Ratings Consensus

  • Of the approx. 8–11 analysts covering CABA, 7–8 hold “Buy” or “Strong Buy” ratings, with only a single “Hold” from Wells Fargo 

  • Recent support includes: HC Wainwright reaffirmed at $25 TP, Guggenheim boosted theirs to $25, and Citigroup maintained a “Strong Buy” with a $13 → $17 →$13 adjustment 

4. Improved Liquidity & Robust Financing

  • The company recently raised ~$100 million via a stock/warrant offering at $2.00 per share, extending their cash runway into H2 2026 and strengthening financial resilience 

  • InvestingPro notes this offering took place while analysts continued to view the stock as undervalued, with various targets between $3 and $28 

  • Technical indicators, like the RS Rating climbing from 79 to 83, suggest growing price momentum and positioning among biotech stocks showing early breakout behavior 

🧠 Summary

Analysts’ bullish stance on Cabaletta Bio reflects:

  • Strong clinical results reinforcing the promise of their lead CAR‑T therapy (rese-cel) in autoimmune diseases;


  • Large projected upside baked into current valuations with a wide range of price targets;

  • Firm consensus leaning heavily toward buys;

  • Financial stability from successful fundraises;

  • Positive technical trends, all contributing to the bullish narrative.


That said, it’s important to remember CABA remains an early-stage biotech:

  • It carries typical clinical and execution risks;

  • The cash burn rate remains elevated, even with the recent offering;

  • Any hiccups in clinical trials or regulatory delays could negatively impact momentum.

Overall, the analyst enthusiasm stems from strong data, hefty upside potential, and secured financing, signaling high risk but potentially high reward.

There’s been no credible reporting that a Big Pharma company is preparing to buy out Cabaletta Bio (CABA) at this time. Here's what we do know:


🔍 What Analysts & Industry Think

  • Strategic Attractor – Cabaletta is pioneering an autologous CAR‑T therapy (“rese‑cel”) for autoimmune diseases—an emerging field where major pharma firms are actively scouting, as noted in a recent SWOT analysis that flagged Cabaletta as a “potentially attractive acquisition target” due to its first‑mover advantage in CD19 auto‑CAR‑T and promising early reads 

  • Raised Visibility through Progress – The company recently strengthened its financial position (~$164M in cash as of end‑2024 Investing.com), expanded manufacturing agreements (e.g., Lonza), hit key milestones across indications like lupus, myositis, and multiple sclerosis, and aligned with FDA toward registrational filing—these are all strategic signals that put Cabaletta on the radar for partnering or acquisition discussions

✅ Why a Takeover Could Happen

  1. Big Pharma Gaps – Companies with deep pipelines in autoimmune and CAR‑T therapies (e.g., Roche, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Novartis, Gilead) might seek to augment their platforms quickly via a late-stage asset like rese‑cel.

  2. Strategic Fit – Cabaletta’s lead program, combined with its CDMO partnerships and FDA Fast Track designations, makes it a more plug‑and‑play candidate for firms looking to expand into cell therapies.

  3. Relatively Small Market Cap – With a ~US$100–160 M market cap, any acquisition would be modest for a Big Pharma company, making it financially easier to digest even with premium.

  4. (Ed note: Basically a rounding error for one of the Big Dogs)


🎯 Who Could Be Interested?

While there's no public confirmation, likely candidates include:

  • Roche – Active in autoimmune (e.g., Rituxan, bispecific antibodies) and cell therapy innovation.

  • Novartis / Gilead (via Kite) – Both have existing CAR‑T programs, and Gilead has deeper autoimmune ambitions.

  • Pfizer / Novo Nordisk – Both are stepping into cell therapy and autoimmune disease; a targeted acquisition could give them a boost.


⚠️ Caution: There Are No Concrete Offers Yet

  • ⚪ No recent rumors, terms sheets, LOIs, or insider leak stories in major biotech news.

  • ⚪ Cabaletta hasn’t announced any active M&A process or engagement with strategic buyers.


🧭 Bottom Line

While Cabaletta Bio is increasingly visible as an attractive acquisition candidate—thanks to strong data, FDA alignment, manufacturing scale-up, and untapped CAR‑T potential—there are currently no public indications that Big Pharma is preparing a takeover.

If Cabaletta continues to deliver pivotal data, especially as it moves toward registrational trials in 2026–2027, it could surface on the radar of firms like Roche, Novartis, Gilead, Pfizer, or Novo Nordisk. But for now, any buyout talk remains speculative and premature.


What to watch next:

Friday, October 4, 2024

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - a simple overview of Google's future tech and financials, positions it for more success!

 


Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)


Executive Summary

Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, stands at the forefront of technological innovation, leveraging its strengths in artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing to drive future growth. This report examines Alphabet's strategic initiatives in these cutting-edge fields, analyzes its financial health, and assesses the potential upside for investors.

Introduction

Alphabet Inc. is a multinational conglomerate specializing in internet-related services and products. With a dominant position in search, advertising, and cloud services, Alphabet has consistently invested in emerging technologies to maintain its competitive edge. The company's forays into AI and quantum computing signify its commitment to shaping the future of technology.

Entry into Artificial Intelligence

AI Products and Services

  • Google Assistant: An AI-powered virtual assistant integrated into smartphones, smart speakers, and other devices, providing personalized user experiences.
  • Google Cloud AI: Offering machine learning platforms and APIs for businesses to develop AI applications.
  • DeepMind Technologies: Acquired in 2014, DeepMind focuses on advanced AI research, contributing to breakthroughs like AlphaGo and AlphaFold.

Investments and Acquisitions

  • Acquisition of Kaggle (2017): A platform for data scientists to collaborate and compete in machine learning challenges.
  • Investment in OpenAI Competitors: Funding startups and research organizations to foster innovation in AI.

Research and Development

Alphabet allocates a significant portion of its revenue to R&D, with a focus on AI. The company employs leading AI researchers and has published numerous papers contributing to the advancement of machine learning and neural networks.

Competitive Positioning

Alphabet's integration of AI across its products and services enhances user experience and operational efficiency. Its vast data resources and computational power provide a competitive advantage over peers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms.

Entry into Quantum Computing

Research Milestones

  • Quantum Supremacy Claim (2019): Google's Sycamore processor performed a computation that would be impractical for classical supercomputers, marking a significant milestone in quantum computing.
  • Development of Quantum Processors: Ongoing efforts to build more stable and scalable quantum systems.

Potential Applications

Quantum computing promises to revolutionize fields like cryptography, materials science, and complex system modeling. Alphabet's early entry positions it to capitalize on these breakthroughs.

Collaborations and Investments

  • Partnerships with Academic Institutions: Collaborating with universities to advance quantum research.
  • Investment in Quantum Startups: Supporting companies developing quantum technologies and applications.

Financial Situation

Revenue and Earnings Trends

  • Revenue Growth: Alphabet reported consistent revenue growth, driven by advertising, cloud services, and other bets.
  • Earnings Performance: Strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, reflecting operational efficiency and market expansion.

Balance Sheet Strength

  • Cash Reserves: Holding substantial cash and cash equivalents, providing flexibility for investments and acquisitions.
  • Debt Levels: Maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent financial management.

Cash Flow Analysis

  • Operating Cash Flow: Robust cash generation from core operations supports R&D and capital expenditures.
  • Free Cash Flow: Positive free cash flow allows for shareholder returns through stock buybacks.

Key Financial Ratios

  • Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Competitive with industry peers, reflecting market expectations for growth.
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Demonstrates efficient use of shareholder capital.

Potential for Upside

Growth Drivers

  • Expansion of Cloud Services: Google Cloud's growth outpaces the market, capturing a larger share of enterprise cloud spending.
  • Monetization of AI and Quantum Technologies: Future products and services stemming from AI and quantum research could open new revenue streams.
  • Digital Advertising: Continued dominance in online advertising with opportunities in emerging markets.



Market Opportunities

  • AI Integration in Industries: Providing AI solutions across sectors like healthcare, finance, and transportation.
  • Quantum Computing Applications: Early mover advantage in commercializing quantum technologies.

Risks and Challenges

  • Regulatory Scrutiny: Antitrust investigations and data privacy regulations could impact operations.
  • Competition: Aggressive strategies from rivals in AI and cloud computing.
  • Technological Uncertainties: The nascent state of quantum computing presents risks in commercialization timelines.

Analyst Forecasts and Valuation

Analysts project continued revenue and earnings growth, with potential stock price appreciation based on successful execution of AI and quantum strategies. Valuation models suggest that the current stock price may not fully reflect the long-term benefits of these investments.

Ed Note:

Waymo Robo Taxi service, owned by GOOG, reports more than 4 million fully autonomous Waymo rides served in 2024 (and 5M all-time)

Conclusion

Alphabet's strategic focus on AI and quantum computing positions it for sustained growth and market leadership. Its strong financial foundation supports ongoing investments in innovation, such as Waymo's leading Robo Taxi service. While challenges exist, the potential upside from successfully harnessing these technologies offers a compelling case for investors.

Updated Editor note Jan 10th, 2025: We now own shares of GOOG (Alphabet)


Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.