Friday, June 13, 2025

Nuclear Fusion: Could it be the most important tech revolution since fire?

Several public companies are actively advancing fusion energy technology—some directly and others via investments, partnerships, or spinouts. Here’s a breakdown of the most relevant public companies, their role in fusion, and how far along they are:

🔬 Direct Fusion Developers (Public or Public via SPAC/IPO Route)

1. TAE Technologies (via potential IPO partner)

Not yet public, but may go public soon (rumored).
Partnered with: Google, Sumitomo, Chevron, and others.
Focus: Field-reversed configuration (FRC) fusion.
Stage: Late prototype phase (Norman machine tested; Copernicus under development).
Revenue: None (pre-commercial).

➡️ Closest public exposure: through Google (Alphabet - NASDAQ: GOOGL), which supports TAE’s AI modeling.

2. Helion Energy (indirect via Microsoft & OpenAI links)

Private, but has agreements with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) for power purchase starting 2028.
Backed by Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) and funded over $600M+.
Stage: Working on its seventh prototype “Polaris” aiming for net energy in 2024–2025.
Approach: Pulsed, magneto-inertial fusion (deuterium-helium-3).

➡️ Indirect public exposure: through Microsoft’s deal & Nvidia’s AI involvement.

3. General Fusion

Still private, backed by Bezos Expeditions and Canadian government.
Uses magnetized target fusion (MTF).
Stage: Demo plant being built in the UK; not yet achieving net energy.

➡️ Public exposure via partners like Schneider Electric (EPA: SU) and potential future IPO.

⚛️ Public Companies with Fusion Stakes, Investments, or Tech Exposure

4. Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL)

Invested in TAE Technologies since 2014.
Provides AI tools for modeling plasma physics.
Exposure is indirect, but increasing.

5. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Invested in TAE Technologies and Zap Energy.
Actively seeking clean energy diversification via fusion R&D partnerships.

6. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)

Has a Skunk Works compact fusion reactor program.
Approach: High-beta magnetic mirror machine.
Stage: Prototype still under wraps; unproven if scalable yet.

7. BWX Technologies (NYSE: BWXT)

Designs nuclear reactors and components; has contractual work supporting fusion R&D (including work with the U.S. DOE and national labs).
Strong positioning as a supplier for fusion devices in the long term.

🧪 Companies with Research or Supply Chain Roles

8. Honeywell International (NASDAQ: HON)

Involved in advanced materials, control systems, and diagnostics used in plasma and reactor control.
May benefit as a supplier or integrator.

9. Cameco (NYSE: CCJ / TSX: CCO)

World’s largest uranium supplier, and could benefit if tritium breeding becomes commercially viable in deuterium-tritium fusion.

🔮 Most Advanced Fusion Developers (Private, but IPO Possible Soon)

Company	Current Status	Energy Gain?	Target Deployment	Public Access
Helion Energy	Building Polaris	Expected 2024	By 2028 (MSFT deal)	Not yet, via MSFT
TAE Technologies	Developing Copernicus	No	2030s	Not yet, via GOOG
General Fusion	Demo plant building	No	~2030	Private
First Light Fusion	UK-based, uses projectile impact fusion	No	Late 2020s–2030s	Private

💡 Summary: Public Companies You Can Buy Now with Fusion Exposure

Company	Ticker	Role in Fusion	Development Stage
Alphabet	GOOG/GOOGL	TAE Technologies investor	R&D support
Microsoft	MSFT	Power-purchase deal w/ Helion	Commercialization target 2028
Chevron	CVX	Investor in TAE & Zap	Diversification into clean energy
Lockheed	LMT	Compact fusion R&D	Prototype-only
BWX Tech	BWXT	Component supplier	Steady nuclear work
Honeywell	HON	Controls & materials	Support role

If you're looking for direct exposure to pure-play fusion, no company is publicly listed yet—but Helion, TAE, and Zap Energy are the most likely IPO candidates in the next 2–3 years.

Here’s a two-part response for a potential fusion-themed investment portfolio, blending current public exposure with speculative positioning for future IPOs:

✅ PART 1: Fusion-Linked Public Portfolio Strategy (2025)

These companies either invest in fusion developers, supply critical technology, or stand to benefit from commercialization.

Ticker	Company	Role in Fusion	Allocation (%)	Rationale
GOOG / GOOGL	Alphabet	Investor in TAE Technologies	25%	AI support and early fusion R&D exposure through TAE. Also exposed to AI and quantum.
MSFT	Microsoft	Fusion power offtake agreement with Helion Energy	25%	First fusion-related energy buyer. Strong play on applied AI and commercial deployment.
CVX	Chevron	Investor in multiple fusion ventures	15%	Early mover among oil majors diversifying into fusion.
LMT	Lockheed Martin	Proprietary compact fusion project via Skunk Works	10%	High-risk, high-reward. Long R&D cycle.
BWXT	BWX Technologies	Supplier to DOE & nuclear fusion systems	10%	Strong play on infrastructure and manufacturing know-how.
HON	Honeywell	Systems integration, sensors, materials	10%	Likely supplier for industrialized fusion plants.
Cash or Bonds	-	For future IPOs or market volatility	5%	Hold for IPOs (TAE, Helion, General Fusion, Zap Energy).

🚀 PART 2: Speculative Fusion IPO Watchlist (2025–2027)

These private companies are furthest along in fusion and could IPO in the coming years:

Company	Approach	Why It Matters	IPO Outlook
Helion Energy	Magneto-inertial pulsed fusion	First to have utility contract (Microsoft); aims for net energy by 2025	High potential by 2026
TAE Technologies	Field-reversed configuration	Largest private funding, strong industrial partners (Google, Chevron, Japan’s Sumitomo)	IPO likely 2025–2026
Zap Energy	Sheared-flow stabilized Z-pinch	Ultra-simple architecture, compact reactor design	Later-stage, maybe 2026+
General Fusion	Magnetized target fusion	Backed by Bezos, demo plant in UK underway	May IPO via Canadian or UK route by 2026
First Light Fusion	Inertial projectile (UK)	Unique projectile fusion approach	May go public in London by 2025

🔮 Optional "Aggressive Edge" Plays

speculative bets:

Consider small positions in Nvidia (NVDA) for AI-modeling fusion physics and software.
Watch for Canadian defense or nuclear companies potentially supporting General Fusion (e.g., SNC-Lavalin / AtkinsRéalis).

📌 Final Thoughts

Short-term: Play the enablers (MSFT, GOOG, BWXT).
Mid-term: Watch for IPOs and allocate cash accordingly.
Long-term: If even one private fusion developer delivers commercial net-positive energy, valuations for all related names will re-rate.

Monday, June 9, 2025

IONQ is accelerating it's growth in the Quantum race with the acquisition of Oxford Ionics, it's 6th acquisition!

🔬 IonQ, Inc. – Updated Investment/Business Report

Ticker: IONQ | Exchange: NYSE | Market Cap (June 2025): ~$11.2B
Sector: Quantum Computing | Headquarters: College Park, MD, USA
Last Price: $40.00 USD

📌 Executive Summary

IonQ continues to solidify its position as a first-mover in the quantum computing industry, making bold strategic acquisitions and advancing multiple hardware modalities in parallel. The recent $1B+ (mostly stock) acquisition of Oxford Ionics marks IonQ’s sixth acquisition in three years, and positions the company to diversify its trapped-ion technology roadmap and further reduce reliance on lasers, a major cost and complexity factor in ion-trap systems. IonQ’s aggressive buildout, combined with its quantum networking push (Qubitekk, Lightsynq), makes it a central player not just in scalable quantum computing—but potentially in laying the foundation for a quantum internet.

🧩 Recent Acquisitions (Strategic Overview)

Date	Target	Focus	Strategic Impact
2025 (June)	Oxford Ionics (UK)	Integrated ion-trap chips w/ microwave control (no lasers)	Advances scalability, manufacturability
2025 (May)	Lightsynq Technologies	Quantum networking photonics	Enhances interconnectivity & QKD capabilities
2024	Qubitekk	Entanglement and quantum networking	Foundation for quantum internet nodes
2023	Entangled Networks	Multi-core quantum processors	Improved parallelism in quantum workloads
2022	Creative Destruction Lab spinout	Error correction IP	Proprietary QEC advancements
2022	ID Quantique (partial tech rights)	Quantum key distribution (QKD)	Early secure quantum communications capabilities

Insight: This acquisition cadence clearly signals IonQ’s intent to control multiple layers of the quantum stack: from core hardware to quantum communication infrastructure. Oxford Ionics’ microwave-controlled ion traps could remove a key bottleneck—optical laser alignment—and allow for CMOS-compatible fabrication, bringing quantum into the realm of standard chip manufacturing.

⚙️ Technology Roadmap & Quantum Advantage Trajectory

1. Multiple Modality Advantage

IonQ now supports at least two primary modalities of trapped-ion systems:

Laser-controlled ion traps – Current systems (Aria, Harmony)
Microwave-controlled chip-based ion traps – Oxford Ionics (future scalability)

This “shots-on-goal” strategy echoes the approach used by Nvidia or Tesla: investing in parallel paths to maximize innovation speed and market resilience.

2. Quantum Internet Positioning

Through Qubitekk and Lightsynq, IonQ is actively building:

Quantum repeater & entanglement distribution systems
Photonic interconnects that will allow distant quantum processors to communicate securely
Foundation for quantum cloud infrastructure (interconnected, distributed quantum processors)

This sets IonQ up as a foundational node operator in a potential future Quantum Internet, a network enabling encrypted communication, distributed computing, and multi-processor coherence.

3. First Commercial Supremacy?

IonQ claims to have achieved 64 algorithmic qubits (AQ) in 2024, with 100+ AQ targeted by 2026.

If verified, this positions IonQ ahead of Google and IBM in effective qubit quality (not just raw count).
Integration of Oxford’s scalable chip-based systems could lead to the first commercially scalable trapped-ion chip in the market.

📈 Financial & Institutional Overview (Q1 2025)

Metric	Value
Cash on Hand	~$380M
Quarterly Revenue	~$9.2M (YoY up ~28%)
R&D Spend (Q1)	~$27M
Total Debt	$0 (no long-term debt)
Gross Margin	~60%
Burn Rate	~$25–30M/quarter

Top Institutional Holders

Vanguard Group
BlackRock
ARK Invest (notably persistent buyer)
Goldman Sachs (added post-Oxford deal)

⚔️ Competitive Landscape

Company	Modality	Status	Notes
IonQ	Trapped ions + networking	Public	Strongest IP + diversified roadmap
Quantinuum	Trapped ions (Honeywell)	Private (IPO anticipated)	Most direct rival, strong funding
PsiQuantum	Photonic	Private	Promising tech, but far from scale
D-Wave	Annealing + gate models	Public	Less universal, niche focus
Rigetti	Superconducting	Public	Struggling with coherence issues

Edge: IonQ leads in public transparency, strategic M&A, and quantum networking integration. Quantinuum is arguably better funded, but lacks the acquisition reach seen from IonQ.

🧠 Investment Thesis: Why IonQ May Prevail

First-mover advantage: Only pure-play public quantum computing company with major government and enterprise contracts.
Vertical integration: Controls hardware, middleware, and is expanding into networking.
IP moat: High patent activity (300+ patent families), exclusive partnerships with AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud.
Optionality: Exposure to both computing and quantum internet markets.
Scalability unlocked: Oxford Ionics provides a true path toward mass manufacturable quantum chips, a potential inflection point.

🚨 Risks to Consider

Valuation multiples now elevated, reflecting high investor expectations.
Execution risk on integrating diverse acquired technologies.
Competitor funding parity—Quantinuum or PsiQuantum could leapfrog with a breakthrough.
Technical unknowns in scaling beyond 100 AQ and networking over long distances.

📊 Analyst Outlook & Strategy Recommendations

Scenario	View
12-Month Target	$45–60 (bull), $25 (bear)
Buy Zone	Already re-rated significantly—accumulate on dips <$35 only with high conviction
Positioning	High-risk, high-upside tech infrastructure stock
Optional Strategy	Pair with quantum-themed ETFs or complementary AI/cloud infrastructure plays to mitigate volatility (e.g., NVDA, MSFT, SMCI, SNOW)

🧭 Conclusion

IonQ’s acquisition of Oxford Ionics marks a potential turning point in the quantum race—not just for scalable hardware, but also for a fully integrated quantum ecosystem. With a lead in both algorithmic performance and quantum network infrastructure, IonQ may be building not just a computer—but the backbone of a future quantum internet.

Ed Note:

I have been long IONQ for a year now and have been acquiring more shares.

"The money (I believe) is in the waiting"!

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Here are great Dividend paying stocks I am considering in the event of a downturn!

Here is a breakdown of 10 excellent Canadian dividend-paying stocks, ranked by attractiveness for conservative portfolios, with all key metrics included.

1. Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO

Yield/Payout: 3.3–3.7%, Payout ~43–46%
Valuation: P/E ~13.9×; P/B ~2.0×
ROE: Industry standard ~12–14%
Sharpe: ~1.1 (5‑yr)
Pros: Big‑5 stability, dividend safety, modest valuation, strong risk-adjusted returns
Cons: Growth tied to domestic economy; interest sensitivity

2. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO)

Yield/Payout: 4.33–4.4%, Payout ~43% Valuation: P/E ~12.7×
ROE: ~7.7% TTM (banks average higher) Sharpe: ~1.0
Pros: High yield with strong dividend growth (12‑year streak), buyback-friendly
Cons: Slightly lower ROE than closest peers

3. Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO)

Yield/Payout: ~0.9%, payout ~20–30%
Valuation: P/E ~18–20× (rail sector)
ROE: ~20%+
Sharpe: ~1.0
Pros: High efficiency, strong earnings growth, low leverage vs equity
Cons: Minimal income component, exposure to cyclical trade volumes

4. Manulife Financial (MFC.TO)

Yield/Payout: ~3.8%, ~50–60% payout
Valuation: P/E ~10–12× typical for insurers
ROE: Strong fiscal health (leverage ~23.9%)
Sharpe: Very low risk-adjusted returns
Pros: A-rated balance sheet, 11-year dividend hikes, Asian growth engine
Cons: Underwhelming stock performance, sensitivity to credit/claims cycles

5. Fortis Inc. (FTS.TO)

Yield/Payout: ~3.66–3.7%, payout ~73%
Valuation: P/E ~19.6×, P/B ~1.2× typical for utilities
ROE: 7.4%
Sharpe: ~0.55–0.66
Pros: 51-year dividend increase streak, low volatility, inflation hedge
Cons: Slow growth, regulated earnings

6. Pembina Pipeline (PPL.TO)

Yield/Payout: ~5.3–5.5%, payout ~90%
Valuation: P/E ~16.8×
ROE: ~11.6%
Sharpe: ~0.35 (5‑yr), ~0.98 (1‑yr)
Pros: Monthly cash flow, pipeline stability, covered dividends
Cons: Commodity-linked cash flow; high payout

7. Enbridge (ENB.TO)

Yield/Payout: ~5.7%, payout ~140–142% IFF earnings
Valuation: P/E ~23.6×, ROE ~9.4%
Sharpe: ~0.8
Pros: 30-year dividend growth streak, fee-based contracts, secured backlog
Cons: High accounting payout; exposure to regulatory, tariff risk

8. TC Energy (TRP.TO)

Yield/Payout: ~4.9–5.1%, payout ~88–97%
Valuation: P/E ~16×
ROE: ~13% (midstream avg)
Sharpe: Moderate risk-adjusted; 1-yr ~1.5, 5-yr ~0.36
Pros: Asset expansion in Mexico, utilities diversification
Cons: Capital intensity; marginal earnings coverage

9. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO)

Yield/Payout: ~5.6–5.9%, payout ~89%
Valuation: P/E ~15.5×
ROE: ~7.9%
Sharpe: ~0.5
Pros: Best yield among Big‑5, international footprint
Cons: High payout; lower profitability

10. BCE Inc. (BCE.TO)

Yield/Payout: ~11–12%, payout astronomical (~600–900%+)
Valuation: P/E ~71× trailing, forward ~10×
ROE: ~15.5%
Sharpe: Low due to financial leverage
Pros: Highest yield, low beta (~0.6)
Cons: Unsustainable high payout; reliance on debt, free cash flow issues

How I might use these in my Conservative Portfolio

50% Core (Stability & Yield)

RY, TD (15% each): Diversified bank income & safety
FTS (10%): Low-growth anchor
CP (10%): Blue-chip growth with little volatility
MFC (5%): Insurance diversification and balance sheet strength

30% Income Enhancers

PPL (10%) & TRP (10%): Monthly/quarterly cash flow with pipeline leverage
ENB (10%): Stable, price-consensus income with growth potential

15% Income Booster (Risk Aware)

BNS (7.5%): Extra yield balancing banks
BCE (7.5%): Ultra high yield play—only in small position, tightly monitored

5% Tactical Cash Reserve

Hold as cash or government bonds to hedge volatility or deploy opportunistically

How This Works in a conservative portfolio

Yield ~4–5%: Blended yield provides solid income with reliable coverage
Diversification: Banks, insurers, utilities, pipelines, rail and telecom reduce correlation risk
Valuation discipline: P/E focused on value vs growth; banks/utilities at ~12–20×, pipelines mid-teens
Balanced volatility: Core holdings have Sharpe ~1; income enhancers moderate risk, tactical reserve cushions shocks

Ed Note:

Depending on Political considerations going forward, we may consider moving Enbridge up!

Monday, June 2, 2025

How institutional trading algorithms “hunt” predictable retail behavior at scale (Protecting your stops)

Some pointers for more advanced investors/traders!

Trailing Stops: How They Can Be Exploited (But Not Personally)

Concern	Explanation
Stop-Hunting by Algos	Algorithms can detect clustered stop zones (e.g., below technical levels or round numbers) and temporarily “sweep” the book to trigger stop-losses before reversing.
Order Book Visibility	Your trailing stop becomes a market order once triggered — it's not visible beforehand but creates predictable liquidity points.
Liquidity Gaps	In low-volume names (e.g., junior miners, small caps), trailing stops can be triggered by small trades due to thin order books.
AI-Driven Volatility Exploits	Sophisticated HFTs and quant funds model common retail behaviors (including trailing stops) to induce false breakouts or breakdowns.

🧠 But to Be Clear:

AI models do not and cannot know your personal trading activity.
Brokerage firms, market makers, and hedge funds may see patterns, not individual identities.
You're not being “watched” — but you're part of millions of patterns that models analyze.

✅ Best Practices to Use Trailing Stops Wisely

Tip	Why It Helps
Use %-based stops on volatile names	Avoid predictable dollar thresholds
*Place stops outside* obvious zones**	Not just under 50DMA or recent lows
Don’t auto-stop everything	Use mental stops or alerts in thinly traded names
Consider option collars	For hedging instead of stop-triggering in volatile stocks
*Use trailing stops on ETFs* or liquid names**	Algos are less likely to manipulate high-liquidity instruments

🔐 In Short:

You are not personally at risk of AI systems tracking or targeting your trailing stops.

But trailing stops in predictable zones can be “swept” by large players’ algorithms — so awareness and smart placement are key.

TRY A VOLATILITY-ADJUSTED STOP SYSTEM

This system uses each stock's average true range (ATR) or beta to place smarter stops — not just random 5% or 10% levels that algos can sniff out.

1. ATR-Based Trailing Stops (Preferred for Volatile Stocks or ETFs)

Step	How to Do It
Find ATR (14-day)	Use any charting platform (e.g., TradingView, StockCharts, Yahoo)
Set trailing stop	1.5× to 2.5× ATR below recent high or purchase price
Example	SMCI ATR = $16 → Stop = $32 to $40 below high

✅ Adapts to daily volatility. Gives room to breathe, avoids random wicks.

2. Beta-Weighted Stop Ranges (Good for Portfolio-Level Planning)

Beta Range	Suggested Stop %	Notes
0.0 – 0.7	4–6%	Lower-risk defensive/utility names
0.7 – 1.2	7–10%	Average-volatility equities
1.2 – 2.0	10–15%	Tech, biotech, high-growth
2.0+	15–20%+	Ultra-volatiles: AI, biotech, crypto stocks

✅ Good for position sizing and risk control across different risk buckets.

📉 3. Technical-Level Stops (Supplemental Logic)

Use pivot lows, trendline breaks, or support zones for “technical” backup.
Combine with ATR: e.g., “whichever is lower: 2× ATR or break below 20DMA.”

💼 4. Position-Specific Application Example

Ticker	Volatility Measure	Suggested Stop Type	Notes
NVDA	ATR = $28, Beta = 1.6	2× ATR or ~12% trailing	Liquid, earnings-sensitive
NXE	ATR = $0.55	Use fixed % stop: 15%	Thin volume; avoid tight stops
PLTR	Beta = 2.0+	15–20% mental stop only	Avoid auto-trigger; fades/whips common
CCO.TO	ATR = $1.20	1.5× ATR (~$1.80 stop)	Moderate volatility, good for physical stop

🚨 5. Do’s and Don’ts

✅ Do	❌ Don’t
Use volatility metrics to size stops	Place arbitrary % stops (e.g., 10%)
Trail stops only after breakout	Use tight stops in low-volume names
Use alerts to monitor levels	Depend 100% on automated execution
Adjust stops weekly (not daily)	Chase price with stops intraday

🧮 BONUS: Excel Formula Template (Pseudo-code)

If using a spreadsheet:

= IF(Volatility = "ATR", EntryPrice - (2 * ATR), EntryPrice * (1 - Stop%))