How to market your retirement fund business!

 

Your retirement/Investment fund can now own these three web addresses/Domains!

Retirefund.com Click!

Retirefunds.com Click!

Micron is a great company with a great future, but, the stock is priced to perfection. Why I recently sold!

 

We bought Micron stock in Sept 2024. 

Here's Why I Recently Sold it!

Executive Summary

Recently, I decided to sell my position in Micron Technology (MU). This decision was not based on a negative view of the company itself. On the contrary, Micron remains one of the world's most strategically important semiconductor companies and is exceptionally well-positioned to benefit from the Artificial Intelligence revolution.

My decision was based on valuation, risk/reward, and capital allocation considerations rather than any deterioration in the company's business prospects.

In investing, there is an important distinction between a great company and a great stock. While Micron remains a great company, I believe the stock currently reflects a significant amount of future optimism, reducing the margin of safety available to new investors.

---

The Bull Case Remains Intact

Micron sits at the center of one of the most important technological transitions in modern history.

AI systems developed by companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta, Microsoft, xAI, and Amazon require enormous amounts of memory to operate effectively. As AI models become larger and more sophisticated, memory bandwidth has become nearly as important as processing power.

Recent developments further strengthened Micron's strategic position:

• Anthropic selected Micron as a supplier for critical memory and storage components.
• Demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) remains exceptionally strong.
• AI infrastructure spending continues to accelerate globally.
• Micron's production capacity for advanced AI memory products is largely committed.
• Industry forecasts continue to indicate strong earnings growth.

These developments confirm that Micron is becoming a critical "picks-and-shovels" supplier to the AI economy.

---

Why I Sold Anyway

1. Expectations Have Become Extremely High

The primary reason for selling is simple:

The stock price appears to be pricing in near-perfect execution and the trade is crowded.

Micron is no longer being valued as a cyclical semiconductor manufacturer. It is increasingly being valued as a strategic AI infrastructure company.

While that re-rating may be justified, it also creates risk.

Today's valuation assumes:

• Continued explosive AI spending.
• Continued shortages in advanced memory products.
• No significant economic slowdown.
• No meaningful reduction in AI capital expenditures.
• Continued pricing power.

When a stock requires multiple favorable outcomes to justify its valuation, future returns become more dependent upon expectations remaining elevated.

---

2. Memory Has Historically Been Cyclical

One lesson from semiconductor history is that memory shortages rarely last forever.

The industry typically follows a familiar pattern:

1. Demand exceeds supply.
2. Prices rise sharply.
3. Producers increase capacity.
4. Supply eventually catches demand.
5. Margins compress.

AI may lengthen this cycle, but it is unlikely to eliminate it.

While the AI era has fundamentally improved Micron's long-term outlook, investors should remember that memory remains one of the most cyclical segments of the semiconductor industry.

---

3. Limited Upside Relative to Emerging Opportunities

Another factor behind my decision was opportunity cost.

At current prices, Micron may continue to perform well.

However, I believe several areas of the AI ecosystem may offer better risk-adjusted upside:

• AI networking infrastructure
• Optical interconnects
• Photonics
• Edge AI semiconductors
• Specialized AI suppliers

Companies operating in these areas may be earlier in their adoption cycles and less fully appreciated by institutional investors.

As a result, capital may generate greater alpha elsewhere than in a company that has already become one of the market's most popular AI investments.

---

4. Capital Preservation Matters

One of the most overlooked investing principles is knowing when to protect gains.

Selling a successful investment does not mean the thesis was wrong.

It often means the thesis has largely played out.

The objective is not to own every winner forever.

The objective is to allocate capital where future returns appear most attractive relative to risk.

At today's valuation, I believe Micron offers:

• Excellent business quality.
• Strong future earnings growth.
• Lower future upside relative to the risk being assumed.

That combination makes it a less compelling opportunity than it was when purchased.

---

What Would Bring Me Back?

I would happily reconsider Micron under several scenarios:

Scenario 1: Significant Pullback

A market correction or AI spending scare could create a more attractive entry point.

Scenario 2: Earnings Outgrow Valuation

If earnings continue to expand rapidly while the stock consolidates, valuation could become more reasonable over time.

Scenario 3: Industry Consolidation

Further evidence that AI has permanently altered the memory industry's economics would strengthen the long-term investment case.

---

Final Assessment

Selling Micron should not be interpreted as a bearish call on Artificial Intelligence, AI infrastructure, or memory demand.

Rather, it reflects a belief that:

Micron has evolved from an underappreciated AI beneficiary into a widely recognized AI leader.

The company may continue to thrive.

The stock may even continue higher.

However, successful investing requires looking forward rather than backward.

At current prices, I believe Micron represents a world-class business with increasingly limited upside relative to its growing expectations and valuation.

For that reason, I chose to realize gains and redeploy capital into opportunities where I believe the probability of achieving superior future returns is greater.

As a mentor once told me, 

"Look after the pennies and the dollars will look after themselves"!

Investment Conclusion:

• Company Quality: Excellent
• AI Strategic Importance: Exceptional
• Current Valuation: Demanding
• Risk/Reward Today: Balanced to Unfavorable
• Decision: Sold position and reallocated capital to higher-conviction opportunities with greater potential alpha.Micron just reported exceptional earnings, announced $22 billion in customer commitments, and guided to continued tight memory supply through at least 2027. Those fundamentals are excellent.

  However:

  • the stock has already had an exceptional run,
  • expectations are extremely high,
  • strong results can sometimes be followed by consolidation as investors take profits.

  My strategy for re-entry

  I would wait for a meaningful pullback rather than buy immediately after such a strong earnings-driven move.

  What qualifies as meaningful?

  • a 7–12% correction, or
  • a broader semiconductor selloff that brings Micron down with the group.

  If that never happens, I'd rather miss a small portion of the move than buy after a sharp post-earnings rally.

How might Bombardier increase it's CAF and NATO reach going forward - (supposition)

 

If I were sitting in Bombardier's boardroom, I would view a takeover of Volatus Aerospace as strategically plausible, but not because of Volatus's current revenue. 

The attraction - positioning Bombardier for the next phase of aerospace and defense.

Why Bombardier Might Be Interested

1. Drones Are Becoming Part of Every Defense Ecosystem

Bombardier Defense has built a growing business converting Global aircraft into ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance), maritime patrol, and special-mission platforms. Hundreds of Bombardier aircraft are already used in defense-related missions.

The defense market is rapidly shifting toward a combination of:

• Manned aircraft
• Unmanned aircraft
• Autonomous systems
• AI-enabled surveillance

Recent U.S. and European defense programs show autonomous drones becoming a core element of future military operations.

Volatus gives Bombardier an immediate entry into:

• ISR drones
• BVLOS operations
• Drone training
• Drone logistics
• NATO drone programs
• Autonomous cargo systems

rather than having to build these capabilities internally.

---

2. Bombardier Has the Aircraft; 

Volatus Has the Drone Layer

One of the most compelling industrial combinations would be:

Bombardier	Volatus
Global 6500 ISR aircraft	Tactical ISR drones
Long-range surveillance	Short-range surveillance
Manned platforms	Unmanned platforms
Military mission aircraft	Drone operators and training
Defense customers	Defense drone customers

Together they could offer a complete surveillance stack.

For example:

• Global 6500 conducts strategic surveillance.
• Volatus drones conduct tactical surveillance.
• Information is fused into one command system.

This is exactly where NATO procurement appears to be heading.

---

3. Canada's Defense Industrial Strategy Is Moving Toward Drones

Canada recently announced significant investments in aerospace defense technologies, autonomous systems, and a new drone innovation hub. 

Bombardier aircraft and drone technologies are both being highlighted as important domestic capabilities.

A Bombardier-Volatus combination would create:

• A Canadian aerospace champion
• A Canadian drone champion
• A stronger domestic defense supplier

which aligns well with Ottawa's "build Canadian" defense objectives.

---

4. Volatus Has Something Hard to Build: Operational Experience

Many companies build drones.

Far fewer possess:

• Flight operations
• Regulatory approvals
• BVLOS experience
• Pilot training
• NATO training contracts
• International drone deployments

Volatus has been steadily accumulating these capabilities.

  

 

For Bombardier, acquiring that expertise could be faster than spending years developing it.

---

5. NATO Expansion Could Be a Major Driver

Volatus has been winning NATO-related ISR and training contracts while expanding into allied markets.

Bombardier is simultaneously growing its defense business, which recently surpassed US$1 billion in annual revenue ahead of schedule.

The strategic logic is straightforward:

• Bombardier sells aircraft.
• Volatus sells drone systems and services.
• Combined, they sell integrated defense solutions.

That generally commands higher margins and larger contracts.

---

Why Bombardier Might NOT Buy Volatus

There are also important counter arguments.

1. Bombardier may prefer partnerships
   • Lower risk.
   • No integration issues.
   • Ability to work with multiple drone providers.
2. Volatus may still be too early-stage
   • Revenue remains relatively small.
   • Profitability is still developing.
3. Bombardier's current focus is aircraft production
   • Defense jet backlog is growing rapidly.
   • Management may prefer organic growth over acquisitions.
4. Drone technology evolves very quickly
   • Acquiring a drone company can be riskier than acquiring an aircraft company because technology cycles are much shorter.

---

My Assessment

If you asked me to estimate the probability today:

• Strategic rationale: Very High
• Financial ability of Bombardier: Very High
• Timing in next 12 months: Moderate
• Probability of some form of partnership before acquisition: High

The most logical path may actually be:

1. Joint projects
2. Defense collaborations
3. Bombardier taking a minority stake
4. Full acquisition later if Volatus proves it can scale NATO and defense revenues

From a shareholder perspective, the strongest acquisition case is not that Volatus is a drone company. 

It is that Volatus is becoming a Canadian defense-autonomy platform at precisely the same time Bombardier is transforming itself into a defense aerospace company. 

Ed Note: Last week,

Volatus Aerospace Opened it's brand new, 53,000-Square-Foot Mirabel Facility,

Establishing Domestic Manufacturing Base for Autonomous Defence Systems

Discl: Long and accumulating FLT shares

Those two trends are converging quickly.

Are you considering precious metals for your TFSA or retirement portfolio?

 

The Precious Metals Reset

Why the Pullback in Silver, Gold and Mining Stocks May Be Creating One of the Best Buying Opportunities of 2026

Executive Summary

Since the early-May highs, both precious metals and mining equities have experienced a significant correction.

Silver has retreated sharply from its peak.

Gold has pulled back from record levels.

Silver miners and gold miners have fallen even more than the underlying metals.

To many investors, this appears bearish.

For long-term investors, (including us) it represents:

A rare opportunity to accumulate strategic assets while the long-term thesis remains intact.

The critical observation is this:

The prices have corrected. The fundamentals largely have not.

In fact, many of the drivers supporting both gold and silver today appear stronger than they were a year ago:

• Persistent silver supply deficits
• AI and electrification demand growth
• Continued central-bank gold buying
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Sovereign debt concerns
• Currency diversification away from the U.S. dollar
• Physical metal accumulation by investors and institutions

The result is a compelling setup for investors willing to look beyond the next quarter.

---

Why Precious Metals Matter More Than Ever

Historically investors separated precious metals into two camps:

Gold = Monetary Metal

Silver = Industrial Metal

Today that distinction is increasingly blurred.

Both metals are becoming strategic assets.

Gold is regaining importance as:

• a reserve asset
• a geopolitical hedge
• a currency diversification tool
• an inflation hedge

Silver is becoming increasingly critical to:

• AI infrastructure
• robotics
• semiconductors
• electrical grids
• EVs
• aerospace
• defense technologies

Together, gold and silver now form what may be the world's most important 

hard-asset combination.

---

Gold: The World's Ultimate Reserve Asset

Gold's investment case has strengthened significantly over the last several years.

Central banks continue to accumulate gold despite record prices.

The World Gold Council reported estimated central-bank purchases of 244 tonnes during Q1 2026, exceeding both the previous quarter and the five-year average.

A recent survey found that a record 45% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year.

This matters because central banks represent:

The smartest long-term buyers in the world.

They are not trading.

They are allocating reserves.

Their continued purchases suggest that gold's strategic importance is increasing rather than declining.

---

Silver: The Technology Metal

Silver may be even more interesting.

Unlike gold, silver has two major demand drivers.

Monetary Demand

• Wealth preservation
• Inflation protection
• Safe-haven buying

Industrial Demand

• AI infrastructure
• Robotics
• Solar energy
• Electric vehicles
• Advanced electronics
• Defense systems

Silver possesses the highest electrical conductivity of any metal.

As AI and electrification expand globally, silver demand continues to benefit from secular growth trends.

---

The Silver Supply Crisis Remains

This is arguably the strongest part of the silver thesis.

According to the Silver Institute and World Silver Survey 2026, the market is expected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit. 

Above-ground inventories continue to be drawn down to satisfy demand.

This is important because:

Most silver is not mined for silver.

It is produced as a by-product of:

• copper mines
• zinc mines
• lead mines
• gold mines

Therefore:

Higher silver prices do not automatically solve the shortage.

This structural issue remains one of the strongest long-term bullish arguments for silver.

---

Why the Pullback May Be a Gift

The correction since May appears driven largely by:

• higher bond yields
• delayed rate-cut expectations
• stronger U.S. dollar
• profit taking
• reduced geopolitical fear

These are cyclical factors.

The long-term drivers are structural.

Historically, some of the best precious-metals investments have been made when:

Prices fall

while

Fundamentals remain strong

That may be the situation today.

---

Here are Four silver plays we either own or have placed on our watch list!

Sprott Physical Silver Trust

The Silver Foundation

PSLV represents direct ownership of physical silver.

No mining risk.

No cost overruns.

No political issues.

Simply exposure to a strategic metal experiencing persistent deficits.

Why It Matters

If silver ultimately benefits from:

• AI infrastructure
• electrification
• robotics
• supply shortages

PSLV may become the purest way to participate.

---

First Majestic Silver Corp.

The High-Torque Silver Vehicle

AG is one of the most recognized silver miners globally.

When silver prices rise, profitability can expand dramatically.

This operational leverage often causes silver miners to outperform the metal itself during bull markets.

Why It Matters

If silver enters a true scarcity-driven bull market:

AG may become one of the largest beneficiaries.

---

Endeavour Silver Corp.

Growth Plus Silver Leverage

EDR adds something AG does not:

Production growth.

Its Terronera project provides company-specific growth potential in addition to silver exposure.

This creates two possible drivers:

• higher silver prices
• increased production

Why It Matters

Few silver miners offer both growth and leverage simultaneously.

---

XGD

The Gold Allocation

This is where gold enters the story.

XGD owns many of the world's major gold producers.

These companies benefit from:

• higher gold prices
• strong margins
• central-bank demand
• global reserve diversification

Unlike silver miners, gold producers generally provide:

• greater stability
• lower volatility
• stronger institutional ownership

Why It Matters

Gold remains the world's preferred hard-money asset.

The current correction may be providing investors an opportunity to buy world-class gold producers at more attractive valuations than were available earlier in the year.

---

Why Gold and Silver Belong Together

Many investors choose one or the other.

Historically, the strongest precious-metals portfolios often own both.

Gold and silver provide different exposures:

Asset	Primary Driver
Gold	Monetary demand
Silver	Industrial + monetary demand
Gold Miners	Gold price leverage
Silver Miners	Silver price leverage

Together they create diversification within the precious-metals sector itself.

---

My Preferred TFSA Allocation Today

For an investor focused on:

• AI infrastructure
• silver shortages
• hard assets
• tax-free compounding
• controlled volatility

I would currently favor:

Holding	Weight
PSLV	25%
AG	25%
EDR	20%
XGD	30%

Why I Increased XGD

In the earlier report, the emphasis was heavily silver-focused.

Today I believe gold deserves a larger allocation because:

Gold is being accumulated by central banks.

Gold demand remains historically strong.

Gold miners have corrected alongside silver miners.

Gold provides downside protection if economic growth slows.

Meanwhile silver retains its higher upside potential.

This creates a more balanced precious-metals strategy.

---

The Bull Case Through 2030

If the following continue:

AI Buildout

Robotics Expansion

Grid Electrification

Defense Spending Growth

Central-Bank Gold Accumulation

Ongoing Silver Deficits

Then both gold and silver may remain in secular bull markets.

Several major institutions continue to forecast substantially higher gold prices over the next several years, supported by central-bank buying and reserve diversification.

Meanwhile the silver market continues to face structural shortages and inventory drawdowns.

---

Bottom Line

The correction since May has likely scared out short-term traders.

But for long-term investors, it may have created something more valuable:

A chance to accumulate both monetary metals and strategic technology metals at lower prices.

Gold is increasingly becoming the world's preferred reserve asset.

Silver is increasingly becoming the world's preferred electrification asset.

And the combination of:

• PSLV (physical silver)
• AG (silver torque)
• EDR (silver growth)
• XGD (gold stability)

creates a portfolio that is positioned to benefit from both of the defining themes of the next decade:

Hard-money demand

and

Technology-driven resource scarcity.

That is a combination few sectors can currently offer.

Ed Note:  XGD provides a good place to begin our entry point this week

The case for owning silver stocks/ETFs at a time of severe shortages in this precious/technology metal